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28 SES 11 B: Occupational Expectations and Teacher Ethnicity
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28. Sociologies of Education
Paper Socioeconomic Gaps in Occupational Expectations Among German Youth Across Two Decades 1: The Pennsylvania State University, United States of America; 2: University of Zurich, Switzerland; 3: University of Potsdam, Germany Presenting Author:Germany is widely recognized for its longstanding and highly stratified early tracking system (typically in 4th grade, when students are around 10 years old). In theory, early selection into distinct school tracks with predefined academic and vocational pathways should help students prepare for future careers at an earlier stage. However, this system may inadvertently reinforce social inequalities because educational and career trajectories are heavily shaped by family socioeconomic status (SES). As a result, German adolescents’ occupational expectations may be especially influenced by their socioeconomic background—perhaps even more so than in countries with less stratified educational systems. In recent years, however, a growing share of young people in Germany have pursued tertiary education rather than entering the dual vocational training system, which historically supplied the country’s skilled workforce and long served as a cornerstone of its economic model. Alongside this broader trend of educational expansion, younger cohorts increasingly aspire to non-manual, academically oriented career paths that promise higher financial returns, shorter working hours, and more favorable working conditions. These structural shifts likely influence not only adolescents’ occupational expectations but also the extent to which those expectations continue to mirror family SES. Specifically, one might expect the influence of SES on occupational expectations to have weakened in recent years. Despite these important changes, however, relatively little is known about how adolescents’ occupational expectations—and the degree to which they reflect family SES—have evolved in Germany across successive cohorts, including millennials and younger generations. Existing research has paid limited attention to whether recent structural transformations have altered the relationship between SES and adolescents’ career expectations. To address this gap, we analyze trends in the association between family SES and adolescents’ expected occupational status from 2000 to 2022 using data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). PISA surveys nationally representative samples of 15-year-olds and provides standardized measures of SES and occupational expectations, enabling comparable analyses across cohorts. Our study offers new evidence on how SES-related disparities in occupational expectations have shifted over time among German adolescents. We address three research questions: (1) To what extent is family SES associated with adolescents’ expected occupational status in Germany? (2) How does this association vary across the distribution of expected occupational status? (3) How has this association changed in Germany between 2000 and 2022? Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used We used data from PISA, administered by the OECD every three years since 2000 to nationally representative samples of 15-year-old students (OECD, 2002, 2014). PISA employs a two-stage stratified sampling design: schools are first randomly selected, followed by random sampling of students within schools. In each participating country, PISA typically aims to sample about 5,000 students per cohort, although actual sample sizes vary. We analyzed PISA surveys from 2000, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, and 2022—the years that included the occupational expectations question. PISA 2009 and 2012 are excluded because this item was not administered. The cohorts represent adolescents born in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1999, 2002, and 2006 (see Table 1 for sample sizes). We measured expected occupational status, the dependent variable, by using a question asking, “What kind of job do you expect to have when you are about 30 years old?” Open-ended responses were coded using four-digit ISCO codes and mapped onto the International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI) of occupational status (Ganzeboom, 2010; Ganzeboom & Treiman, 1996, 2003). ISEI ranges from 10 to 90, with higher scores indicating greater occupational prestige. SES was measured using parental occupation, parental education, and the number of books in the home. To facilitate interpretation across cohorts, both expected occupational status and SES were standardized within each cohort (mean = 0, SD = 1). We included gender and grade level as controls. We intentionally did not control for achievement because such controls can downwardly bias SES effects (Jerrim, 2012; Willms, 2003). For analytic strategies, we first examined cohort differences in mean expected occupational status. We calculated expected occupational status at the 10th (P10), 50th (P50), and 90th (P90) percentiles of the SES distribution and assessed how these gaps evolve. Next, we estimated ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models for each cohort to examine the association between SES and expected occupational status. We tracked changes in the SES coefficient and the variance explained (R² change) across cohorts. To examine distributional variation, we estimated quantile regressions at the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of expected occupational status. This strategy reveals whether SES effects are stronger at lower or higher points in the outcome distribution. Missing SES data are addressed using multiple imputations via chained equations. While PISA final student weights were used to ensure representativeness, clustered standard errors were used to account for the nesting of students within schools. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings The overall pattern across our analyses indicates that the influence of family SES on adolescents’ expected occupational status in Germany has weakened over the past two decades. SES gaps declined not only on average (as shown in the OLS models) but also particularly at both the lower and upper ends of the expectations distribution (as revealed by the quantile regression results). These trends suggest that a society long characterized by sponsored mobility—reinforced through early tracking and institutionalized educational pathways—may be shifting toward a more contest-based structure in shaping adolescents’ occupational expectations. However, a reduced SES gradient does not imply that structural inequalities have disappeared. SES remains a significant predictor of adolescents’ expectations, and the underlying mechanisms of social stratification continue to operate. Rather, the findings point to a gradual movement toward a less rigidly stratified pattern of aspirations among German youth. Moreover, the observed decline in SES gaps in occupational expectations does not necessarily signal a parallel decline in SES disparities in actual occupational attainment. Converging aspirations do not automatically translate into converging outcomes. This widening disconnect between expectations and structural opportunities may itself be a defining feature of younger cohorts who have come of age amid educational expansion, labor-market flexibilization, and a cultural emphasis on individual choice, self-realization, and “following one’s passion.” References Ganzeboom, H. B. G. (2010). International Standard Classification of Occupations ISCO-08 with ISEI-08 scores (Version of July 27 2010). Ganzeboom, H. B. G., & Treiman, D. J. (1996). Internationally comparable measures of occupational status for the 1988 International Standard Classification of Occupations. Social Science Research, 25(3), 201–239. Ganzeboom, H. B. G., & Treiman, D. J. (2003). Three internationally standardized measures for comparative research on occupational status. In J. H. P. Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik & C. Wolf (Eds.), Advances in cross-national comparison (pp. 159–193). Springer. Hao, L., & Naiman, D. Q. (2007). Quantile regression. Sage. Jerrim, J. (2012). The socio‐economic gradient in teenagers' reading skills: How does England compare with other countries? Fiscal Studies, 33(2), 159–184. Kerckhoff, A. C. (1974). Stratification processes and outcomes in England and the US. American Sociological Review, 39(6), 789–801. Kerckhoff, A. C. (1977). The realism of educational ambitions in England and the United States. American Sociological Review, 42(4), 563–571. Kerckhoff, A. C., Campbell, R. T., & Winfield-Laird, I. (1985). Social mobility in Great Britain and the United States. American Journal of Sociology, 91(2), 281–308. Lipset, S. M. (1966). University students and politics in underdeveloped countries. Comparative Education Review, 10(2), 132–162. OECD. (2002). Manual for the PISA 2000 database. Paris: OECD. OECD. (2014). PISA 2012 technical report. Paris: OECD. Rubin, D. B. (1987). Multiple imputation for nonresponse in surveys. John Wiley. Treiman, D. J., & Terrell, K. (1975). The process of status attainment in the United States and Great Britain. American Journal of Sociology, 81(3), 563–583. Turner, R. H. (1960). Sponsored and contest mobility and the school system. American Sociological Review, 25(6), 855–867. Willms, J. D. (2003). Ten hypotheses about socioeconomic gradients and community differences in children's developmental outcomes (Final report). Human Resources Development Canada. 28. Sociologies of Education
Paper Does teacher ethnicity matter to their retention? A time-dependent survival analysis with School Workforce Data in England 1: Durham University, United Kingdom; 2: University of Birmingham, United Kingdom Presenting Author:Across countries, education systems are increasingly struggling to retain qualified teachers, as rising attrition rates threaten student learning and school stability, and persistent shortages continue to undermine efforts to narrow socioeconomic attainment gaps (Schleicher, 2019; UNESCO, 2024). In England, the preparation of a new teacher requires substantial public investment, amounting to tens of thousands of pounds. When teachers leave the profession within their first five years, much of this investment is effectively lost (McLean & Worth, 2025). Substantial disparities persist between the ethnic composition of the teacher workforce and that of the student population (Gorard et al., 2023). Understanding teachers’ career mobility patterns, including movements between schools, promotion, and exit from the profession, can therefore inform more effective workforce policies aimed at achieving a more balanced and sustainable teacher distribution. Teacher attrition, in particular, represents a key driver of persistent shortages, making it crucial to identify the factors associated with teachers’ exit from the profession. A central question is whether observed differences in attrition by teacher ethnicity persist after accounting for other relevant factors. This study employed a longitudinal analysis of population-level Teacher Workforce Census data in England from 2010 to 2022, covering all teachers recorded in state-funded schools during the period. The data were structured in a person-year format, with each record representing a teacher’s employment status each year. Four types of career mobility were identified: movers, promotion to deputy head, promotion to head, and leavers. descriptive analyses were conducted to illustrate patterns of teacher career mobility across ethnic groups over the period 2010–2022. The analysis then focused on teachers who entered the profession from 2010 onwards, drawing on 2,675,719 person-year observations from 518,113 teachers to investigate predictors of teacher attrition in England with Kaplan–Meier curve and Cox time-dependent survival models. Results show that patterns of teacher career mobility vary considerably by ethnicity. White British teachers experience more favourable promotion outcomes and lower attrition. Black teachers combine higher mobility with relatively strong promotion prospects. Chinese teachers exhibit the most constrained career trajectories, characterised by low mobility and promotion rates alongside a consistently higher likelihood of leaving the profession. While ethnicity is descriptively associated with attrition, this relationship disappears once key demographic and professional characteristics are controlled for. Holding Qualified Teacher Status (QTS) emerged as the strongest protective factor, associated with a 43% reduction in attrition risk. Teachers with QTS, whether obtained prior to entry or acquired after joining the profession, were consistently less likely to leave the profession. Stable professional conditions (e.g., permanent and full-time) also potentially prevent teachers from leaving. Promotion to deputy head is also a strong protective factor. However, promotion to head did not necessarily reduce attrition risk and may even have accelerated attrition. This study does not suggest that teachers’ ethnicity is unimportant. Rather, it demonstrates that patterns of teacher attrition can be largely explained by modifiable factors. Addressing conditions such as qualification status and working patterns can reduce the risk of teachers leaving the profession while supporting a more diverse and sustainable workforce. The findings have clear policy implications for how Qualified Teacher Status (QTS) is awarded and supported, as well as for promotion practices within schools. Expanding flexible routes to QTS, strengthening support for in-service teachers without QTS, and providing greater workload and psychological support for school leaders may help mitigate burnout and promote more sustainable leadership environments. Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used This study used population-level data from the England School Workforce Census (2010–2022), covering all teachers in state-funded schools. Career mobility was identified using person-year records ordered by teacher ID and year. Moves were defined by changes in school URNs, promotions by changes in job roles, and exits by the final observed year for each teacher. For each year, we illustrated teachers’ employment status by ethnicity, including the proportions of movers, promoters, and leavers. This study focuses on teacher attrition, defined as the event occurring when a teacher’s record no longer appears in the School Workforce Census. As teachers remaining in the dataset may still leave the profession in later years, survival analysis was employed to model time to attrition while appropriately accounting for right-censored observations. The analysis involved 2,675,719 person-year observations from 518,113 teachers. Kaplan–Meier estimates were used to visualise attrition trajectories across ethnic groups, with time measured as years since entry into the profession and survival defined as remaining in teaching. To examine whether ethnicity remains associated with attrition after accounting for other factors, we applied time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models with ‘stcox’ function in Stata 17. Ethnicity and sex were treated as fixed covariates, while age and professional characteristics were modelled as time-varying, including QTS status, contract type, working pattern, school phase, school mobility, and promotion. As the data cover the population of teachers rather than a random sample, statistical significance testing was not used. Model performance was assessed using Cohen’s d, calculated from the predicted hazard scores to evaluate discrimination between leavers and stayers. Model fit and parsimony were compared using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), with lower values indicating better-performing specifications (Akaike, 1973; Lehr & Schemper, 2007). Hazard ratios (HRs) were reported to indicate the relative risk of leaving the profession associated with each factor. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings This study documents persistent ethnic gaps in teachers’ career mobility in England, with little evidence of improvement over the past decade. Particularly, Chinese teachers appear to occupy a markedly disadvantaged position, characterised by high attrition and limited promotion opportunities. However, results from the survival analysis suggest that teacher attrition is better explained by background and career-related factors than by ethnicity itself. Many career development challenges experienced by ethnic minority teachers are also shared by teachers from other ethnic backgrounds once relevant characteristics are considered. This interpretation aligns with evidence from large-scale survey research indicating that career progression and decisions to leave teaching are often shaped by common structural and professional conditions across ethnic groups (Gorard et al., 2025). Apparent differences between ethnic groups therefore seem to reflect the unequal distribution of these underlying factors rather than ethnicity per se. Holding Qualified Teacher Status (QTS) and stable professional conditions, such as permanent contracts and full-time work, are strongly associated with lower attrition. These patterns likely reflect differences in professional preparation, commitment, and structural incentives, as QTS confers higher pay and clearer progression pathways within England’s teacher labour market (Chesnut & Burley, 2015; Doherty, 2020; DfE, 2025a, 2025b; Perryman & Calvert, 2020; Pressley et al., 2026;). Promotion, particularly to deputy headship, appears to be an effective and durable retention incentive, with a persistent protective effect two years post-promotion (HR = 0.95). Promotion to headship shows only short-term benefits, followed by sharply rising attrition risks, likely reflecting high-stakes accountability pressures or the role of headship as a transitional rather than long-term career destination (Béteille et al., 2012; Grissom & Bartanen, 2019; Perryman et al., 2025). Taken together, the results underscore the role of career structures in shaping patterns of teacher mobility across ethnic groups. References Akaike, H. (1973). Information theory and an extension of the entropy maximization principle. In 2nd International Symposium on information theory (pp. 276-281). Kiado: Akademia. Béteille, T., Kalogrides, D., & Loeb, S. (2012). Stepping stones: Principal career paths and school outcomes. Social Science Research, 41(4), 904–919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2012.03.003 Chesnut, S. R., & Burley, H. (2015). Self-efficacy as a predictor of commitment to the teaching profession: A meta-analysis. Educational Research Review, 15, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.edurev.2015.02.001 Department for Education. (2025a). Qualified teacher status (QTS). GOV.UK. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/qualified-teacher-status-qts Department for Education. (2025b). School teachers’ pay and conditions. GOV.UK. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/school-teachers-pay-and-conditions Doherty, J. (2020). A systematic review of literature on teacher attrition and school-related factors that affect it. Teacher Education Advancement Network Journal, 12(1), 75-84. Gorard, S., Chen, W., Tan, Y., See, B. H., Gazmuri, C., Tereshchenko, A., Demie, F., & Siddiqui, N. (2023). The disproportionality of ethnic minority teachers in England: Trends, patterns, and problems. Routledge Open Research, 2(13), 13. Gorard, S., Gao, Y., Huat See, B., Tereshchenko, A., Siddiqui, N., & Demie, F. (2025). What helps to attract minority ethnic teachers in England?: Results from a national survey. Review of Education Studies, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.71002/res.v5n1p50 Grissom, J. A., & Bartanen, B. (2019). Principal Effectiveness and Principal Turnover. Education Finance and Policy, 14(3), 355–382. https://doi.org/10.1162/edfp_a_00256 Lehr, S., & Schemper, M. (2007). Parsimonious analysis of time-dependent effects in the Cox model. Statistics in Medicine, 26(13), 2686–2698. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2742 McLean, D., & Worth, J. (2025). Teacher Labour Market in England: Annual Report 2025. National Foundation for Educational Research. Perryman, J., & Calvert, G. (2020). What motivates people to teach, and why do they leave? Accountability, performativity and teacher retention. British journal of educational studies, 68(1), 3-23. Perryman, J., Bradbury, A., Calvert, G., & Kilian, K. (2025). ‘A Tipping Point’ in Teacher Retention and Accountability: The Case of Inspection. British Journal of Educational Studies, 73(2), 181–200. https://doi.org/10.1080/00071005.2024.2439791 Pressley, T., Marshall, D. T., Walter, H. L., Ganey, K., Rader, M. A., Creed, E., & Andre, I. (2026). Why teachers leave: Insights from teachers leaving or preparing to leave the profession. Teaching and Teacher Education, 169, 105285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tate.2025.105285 Schleicher, A. (2019). PISA 2018: Insights and interpretations. OECD Publishing. UNESCO. (2024). Global report on teachers: Addressing teacher shortages and transforming the profession. UN. 28. Sociologies of Education
Paper ***WITHDRAWN*** Between System Stabilization and Transformation: Professional Agency in School Social Work under Conditions of Polycrisis and Datafication IU Internationale Hochschule Dresden, Germany Presenting Author:BETWEEN SYSTEM STABILIZATION AND TRANSFORMATION: PROFESSIONAL AGENCY IN SCHOOL SOCIAL WORK UNDER CONDITIONS OF POLYCRISIS AND DATAFICATION
INTRODUCTION
In an era defined by global polycrises, school systems across Europe are under immense pressure to ensure both social stability and individual development. As an intermediary between formal education and social welfare, school social work serves, among other things, as a barometer for these shifting conditions. In this context, the professional mandate of practitioners is increasingly caught in a field of tension between the urgent necessity of systemic integration and the pedagogical obligation toward emancipation — a concept rooted in the Pedagogy of the Oppressed (Freire, 2018). This tension is further intensified by the ongoing datafication of educational governance. The following proposal outlines how these changing conditions redefine professional "knowing and acting" and examines the potential of school social work to reclaim or maintain its transformative agency.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
How do school social workers negotiate their mandate between integration and subjective emancipation (Freire, 2018) under crisis conditions? To what extent does datafication shift professional "knowing" from biographical understanding to algorithmic risk-management? What strategies of professional agency develop to reclaim spaces for social justice within standardized frameworks?
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The study is grounded in a synthesis of socio-pedagogical coping theory and the sociology of digital governance, providing a robust lens for the European context.
1. COPING AND LIFE-WORLD ORIENTATION (THE SOCIO-PEDAGOGICAL DIMENSION): Central to this framework is Lothar Böhnisch’s (2023) concept of Life-World Orientation. In the context of the European "polycrisis"—marked by the aftermath of the pandemic, climate anxiety, and the integration of displaced students—the pressure to cope (Bewältigungsdruck) has become a cross-border phenomenon. School social work is theorized as a profession that supports students in regaining agency. However, as European school systems increasingly lean towards neoliberal efficiency, social work faces a "double mandate" (Staub-Bernasconi, 2009, 2018): acting as a representative of the state (integration) while remaining an advocate for the student (emancipation).
2. DATAFICATION AND GOVERNANCE (THE SOCIOLOGICAL DIMENSION): This institutional tension is intensified by the datafication of education, a trend observed globally but with specific regulatory challenges in Europe (e.g., GDPR vs. EdTech expansion). Building on Ben Williamson’s (2017) critique, the framework analyzes how Learning Management Systems (LMS) and AI-driven monitoring redefine "knowing." When "at-risk" students are identified through algorithmic profiling rather than relational dialogue, the professional mandate shifts from understanding biographies to managing data-points. This represents a fundamental change in the "conditions of education research".
3. PROFESSIONAL AGENCY AND THE EUROPEAN DIMENSION: The framework emphasizes that professional "acting" is not merely execution but a form of Transformative Agency. By comparing German school social work perspectives with broader European trends of "Digital Professionalism," the research highlights a vital international dimension: the struggle for the "soul" of social pedagogy in a digitalized era. This study argues that the potential of educational research lies in supporting practitioners across Europe to navigate these "changing conditions" without losing their emancipatory core.
CONTRIBUTION TO THE EUROPEAN DISCOURSE
By linking the German tradition of Sozialpädagogik with international critiques of digital governance, this proposal offers a unique perspective on the European Social Model. It provides a theoretical basis to discuss how social work can serve as a democratic corrective in diverse European school systems, ensuring that education remains a process of human empowerment rather than data-driven selection.
Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used The study employs a qualitative, exploratory research design aimed at capturing the complex negotiation processes between integration and emancipation in the everyday work of school social work. This design is necessary to understand the subjective perspectives and implicit practical knowledge of the professionals in a rapidly changing environment. Semi-structured expert interviews, guided by the methodology of Meuser and Nagel (2009), are used as the primary data collection method. School social workers are interviewed as "functionaries" who possess specific institutional knowledge and decision-making leeway within their field of action. The interview guide is thematically divided into three main blocks to reflect the proposal's theoretical dimensions: Crisis Perception: How is the pressure to cope (Bewältigungsdruck) observed by Böhnisch (2023) actually experienced in daily school life? Digital Action: To what extent do digital monitoring tools and AI-driven diagnostics influence professional casework and pedagogical "knowing"? Pedagogical Positioning: Where do professionals see scope for emancipatory education in the sense of Freire (2018) beyond purely integrative systemic logics? Sampling follows the principle of maximum variation. Professionals from different types of schools (e.g., primary, grammar, vocational schools) and socio-economically diverse catchment areas are specifically selected. This approach makes it possible to comparatively examine the influence of the datafication described by Williamson (2017) under different structural conditions and to substantiate the European dimension of the research question. The analysis of the transcribed interviews is carried out using Qualitative Content Analysis according to Mayring (2019, 2022). This systematic, rule-guided procedure is suitable for both inductively developing categories from the material and deductively applying theory-driven codes (e.g., "emancipatory action," "algorithmic control"). The structuring content analysis allows the researchers to uncover the "orienting patterns" (implicit knowledge) behind the statements of the social workers and thus reconstruct the underlying logics of their actions. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings The expected findings of this study provide critical insights into the transformation of professional practice within school social work across Europe. 1. Typology of Professional Acting The research expects to identify a typology of professional responses to the "pressure to cope" described by Böhnisch (2023). These types will range from "systemic adaptation" (prioritizing integration and administrative data collection) to "subversive empowerment" (utilizing professional niches for emancipatory work in the spirit of Freire (2018)). By mapping these types, the study will reveal how practitioners resist or adapt to the technocratic shift. 2. Impact of Data-Driven Governance In accordance with Williamson (2017), the findings are likely to demonstrate that the datafication of education leads to a paradox of de-professionalization: while digital tools aim to increase efficiency, they often narrow the pedagogical gaze to quantifiable deficits. The study will highlight specific strategies where school social workers consciously bridge the gap between algorithmic data and the lived realities of students. 3. European Added Value and Policy Implications The results offer significant added value to the European educational landscape. The paper makes a substantial contribution to a cross-national dialogue on how social work can act as a democratic corrective within school systems that are increasingly under pressure. The study will propose a framework for "Digital Professionalism" that empowers practitioners to use digital tools as resources for social justice. References Böhnisch, L. (2023). Sozialpädagogik der Lebensalter: Eine Einführung (9. Aufl.). Weinheim: Juventa. Freire, P. (2018). Pedagogy of the Oppressed (50th anniversary ed.). New York: Bloomsbury Academic. Mayring, Ph. (2019). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Abgrenzungen, Spielarten, Weiterentwicklungen. Forum Qualitative Sozialforschung FQS 20, H.3, Art. 16 http://www.qualitative-research.net/index.php/fqs/article/view/3343/4444 Mayring, Ph. (2022). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken (13. überarb. Aufl.). Weinheim: Beltz. Meuser, M., & Nagel, U. (2009). The Expert Interview and Changes in Knowledge Production. In A. Bogner, B. Littig, & W. Menz (Eds.), Interviewing experts (pp. 17–42). London: Palgrave Macmillan. Staub-Bernasconi, S. (2009). Soziale Arbeit als Handlungswissenschaft. In Die Sozialarbeitswissenschaft und ihre Theorie (n) Positionen, Kontroversen, Perspektiven (pp. 131-146). Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Staub-Bernasconi, S. (2018). Soziale Arbeit als Handlungswissenschaft: Soziale Arbeit auf dem Weg zu kritischer Professionalität. Utb. Williamson, B. (2017). Big data in education: The digital future of learning, policy and practice. London: Sage. | ||