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22 SES 03 A: Graduates Outcomes
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22. Research in Higher Education
Paper Penalties and Compensation for Skill Mismatch: An Investigation into the Impact on Employment Quality Among Engineering Graduates in China 1: Southwest University, China; 2: Peking University, China; 3: Central University of Finance and Economics, China; 4: Nanjing University, China Presenting Author:In the current era of Industry 4.0 and global digital transformation, the alignment between higher education and the labor market has become a pivotal driver for national innovation. As the provider of the world’s largest engineering education system, China presents a unique landscape where remarkable quantitative growth in STEM graduates is juxtaposed with a persistent and paradoxical skills gap. This research interrogates the Engineering Education-to-Workforce transition by analyzing the longitudinal trajectory of skill mismatch among engineering graduates from 2019 to 2023, a critical period marked by significant economic restructuring. The primary objective is to disentangle the mechanisms through which this mismatch suppresses initial wages while simultaneously reshaping the psychological well-being of early-career engineers. To examine these complex consequences, the study constructs an interdisciplinary framework that initiates a dialogue between economic and psychological paradigms. We utilize Human Capital Theory (HCT) to quantify the economic wage penalty, positing that underutilized competencies inevitably diminish marginal productivity. However, we argue that the relationship between mismatch and job satisfaction is not a linear decline. While Person-Job Fit theory predicts reduced satisfaction due to environmental misalignment, we introduce Self-Determination Theory (SDT) as a potential moderating force. This study tests the hypothesis that if workplace environments fulfill basic psychological needs—specifically autonomy, competence, and relatedness—the activation of intrinsic motivation may buffer the negative impacts of mismatch, potentially explaining high professional well-being in mismatched roles. The findings will offer critical insights that extend far beyond the Chinese context, positioning the country’s experience as a pivotal case study for the global academic community. China’s strategic shift from quantitative expansion to qualitative excellence provides a practical roadmap for other Global South nations navigating similar industrial pressures. By utilizing the O*NET database, this research ensures that "skills" are defined through a standardized global lens, facilitating direct benchmarking against the European Skills Agenda and North American STEM workforce standards. Ultimately, this study identifies universal patterns of decoupling between educational supply and industrial demand, offering evidence-based insights for international engineering education reform. Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used This study employs a quantitative research design utilizing repeated cross-sectional data from the National College Graduate Employment Survey (CGGES) conducted by the Institute of Economics of Education at Peking University. The analytical sample encompasses three waves of national surveys from 2019, 2021, and 2023, capturing dynamic labor market shifts during China’s industrial transformation. A multi-stage stratified sampling method was adopted to ensure a nationally representative sample, resulting in a final dataset of 9,919 engineering graduates across diverse institutional types, academic levels, and geographic regions. Measurement of skill mismatch is achieved through a sophisticated integration of micro-level survey data and international occupational benchmarks. On the supply side, graduates self-assessed their competency gains during higher education across cognitive, technical, and relational domains. On the demand side, skill requirement scores for graduates’ specific job positions were extracted from the O*NET database. Graduates’ job titles were mapped to ONET occupational codes through a systematic cross-walk procedure based on job descriptions. To ensure comparability between these sources, raw scores for both possessed and required skills were standardized and converted into percentiles. The Skill Mismatch Index was then constructed by calculating the difference between these percentiles, where a non-zero value indicates either over-skilled or skill under-skilled. To provide a more reliable estimate, we employ a fixed-effects strategy that accounts for unobserved variations across schools and year fixed effects. Specifically, we use this to examine how skill mismatch affects graduates' wages. For job satisfaction, we apply a Fixed-Effect Ordered Logit model to respect its ordinal nature. By controlling for school and year fixed effects, the study effectively isolates the impact of skill mismatch from other confounding socio-economic variables, ensuring the robustness of the parameter estimations. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings It is found that skill mismatch exerts a significant negative impact on the initial wages of Chinese engineering graduates between 2019 and 2023, reflecting a substantial productivity loss consistent with Human Capital Theory. However, the psychological outcomes regarding job satisfaction present a more nuanced narrative. While Person-Job Fit theory suggests a decline in satisfaction due to environmental misalignment, this study identifies a compensatory mechanism through Self-Determination Theory (SDT). Specifically, it is expected that when workplace environments fulfill basic psychological needs—such as autonomy and competence—the resulting intrinsic motivation can act as a buffer, mitigating the adverse effects of mismatch on professional well-being. By integrating these competing perspectives, the study fills a critical void in the sparse literature concerning engineering-specific career outcomes and challenges the monolithic view of mismatch as an entirely negative phenomenon in the modern technological landscape. Beyond its theoretical contributions, the findings offer vital practical implications for stakeholders in engineering education and policy. To ensure that competency gains in higher education translate effectively into workplace productivity, institutions must foster deep integration between academia and industry, ensuring that curricula align with real-time industrial demands. Furthermore, career counseling services should be reformed to guide students in constructing realistic career expectations while emphasizing the alignment of psychological needs with job roles. Ultimately, policymakers can leverage standardized tools—such as the O*NET benchmarking utilized in this research—to establish dynamic skill-monitoring systems. Such measures would facilitate a more efficient bridge between educational supply and the evolving requirements of the labor market, promoting a more sustainable and high-quality transition for engineering talent. References Allen, J., & van der Velden, R. (2001). Educational mismatches versus skill mismatches: Effects on wages, job satisfaction, and on-the-job search. Oxford Economic Papers, 53(3), 434–452. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/53.3.434 Becker, G. (1964). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis with special reference to education. Columbia University Press. Kristof-Brown, A. L., Zimmerman, R. D., & Johnson, E. C. (2005). Consequences of individuals' fit at work: A meta-analysis of person-job, person-organization, person-group, and person-supervisor fit. Personnel Psychology, 58(2), 281–342. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-6570.2005.00672.x McGuinness, S., Pouliakas, K., & Redmond, P. (2018). Skills mismatch: Concepts, measurement and policy approaches. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(4), 985–1015. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12254 Ryan, R. M., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Self-determination theory and the facilitation of intrinsic motivation, social development, and well-being. American Psychologist, 55(1), 68–78. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.55.1.68 Van den Broeck, A., Howard, J. L., Van Vaerenbergh, Y., Leroy, H., & Gagné, M. (2021). Beyond intrinsic and extrinsic motivation: A meta-analysis on self-determination theory's multidimensional conceptualization of work motivation. Organizational Psychology Review, 11(3), 240–273. https://doi.org/10.1177/20413866211006173 Wu, N., & Wang, Q. (2018). Wage penalty of overeducation: New micro-evidence from China. China Economic Review, 50, 206–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.04.007 22. Research in Higher Education
Paper Explaining Graduate Economic Outcomes in a Congested Labour Market: The case of ISEG´s Graduates CEMAPRE - REM - ISEG, Portugal Presenting Author:There is a persistent assumption that higher education (HE) enhances graduates’ employability, economic outcomes, and wages. Consequently, graduate employability has become a central policy concern, with universities increasingly expected to equip students with labour-market-relevant skills. However, the relationship between HE and employment outcomes is increasingly contested. Many graduates experience underemployment (Purcell et al., 2013) and low wages, challenging the expectation that universities can effectively offset structural labour market constraints. As Tholen (2014a) argues, the growing reliance on HE institutions to improve employability often fails to reflect labour market realities, despite expanded employability strategies, institutional statements, and career services. Skill mismatch remains widespread among new graduates (Wilton, 2011), with many employed in positions that do not fully utilise their qualifications. At the same time, much of the existing literature adopts a narrow analytical focus, insufficiently accounting for the broader social and economic conditions shaping graduate outcomes. The graduate labour market is increasingly congested, with an oversupply of graduates contributing to overqualification (Felstead et al., 2013) and intensifying competition for graduate-level employment (Brown, 2013). These dynamics reinforce existing inequalities and constrain social mobility, as access to high-quality employment continues to be stratified by class (Ashley and Empson, 2013; Friedman et al., 2015), gender (Purcell et al., 2013), and ethnicity (Sedghi, 2014; Gorman, 2015; Morley, 2001, p. 132). In Portugal, the number of HE graduates has increased—albeit with minor fluctuations—since the end of the economic crisis in 2016/17, while graduate labour market outcomes have followed similar international trends. The expansion of graduate employment has not matched the growth in graduate supply, resulting in prolonged school-to-work transitions, greater uncertainty in employment trajectories, declining wage premiums relative to non-graduates, and rising wage inequality among graduates. Extended transition periods hinder skill accumulation and contribute to human capital depreciation, representing efficiency losses for both individuals and society. In this context, lower wages and increasing inequality have weakened graduates’ bargaining power, calling into question the economic returns of HE credentials. Understanding the factors shaping the transition from university to the labour market is therefore critical for improving resource allocation and promoting societal well-being. This paper examines the determinants of the economic outcomes of graduates from ISEG (Lisbon School of Economics and Management), adopting a multidimensional framework. We assume that macroeconomic conditions, labour market context, individual characteristics, family socioeconomic status (SES), educational trajectory, institution attended, and level of qualification constitute a complex and interrelated set of influences on graduate outcomes. Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used The analysis draws on survey data collected from ISEG HE graduates 12 and 18 months after graduation, combined with administrative data on students’ individual and socioeconomic characteristics. The survey includes information on pre-graduation work experience, employment status, duration of transition into the labour market, job-search intensity, match between field of study and job requirements, satisfaction with the contribution of ISEG training to professional performance, and type of employment contract. The administrative dataset provides information on individual background, SES, and HE trajectories. National unemployment rates are also incorporated into the analysis. The final sample consists of 307 valid questionnaires. Statistical analyses will be conducted using SPSS, employing descriptive and inferential techniques to identify the factors significantly associated with graduates’ economic outcomes in the labour market. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings We expect to find a negative association between graduates’ economic outcomes and national unemployment rates, transition length, social class, age, and female gender, alongside a positive association with parental education, pre-graduation work experience, skills–job match, and satisfaction with training relevance. We further anticipate that institutional employability initiatives, including employability statements and career services, will have limited measurable effects on graduates’ labour market outcomes. References Ashley L., Empson L. (2013). ‘Differentiation and Discrimination: Understanding Social Class and Social Exclusion in Leading Law Firms’ Human Relations 66:219–44. Brown, P. (2013). Education, opportunity and the prospects for social mobility. British Journal of Sociology of Education, 34, 678–700. Brown, P., Lauder, H., & Cheung, S. Y. (2019). The death of human capital? New York: Felstead, A., D. Gallie, F. Green and H. Inanc (2013 ). Skills At Work In Britain: First Findings from the Skills and Employment Survey London, Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education. Friedman, S., Laurison, D. and Miles, A. (2015), Breaking the ‘class’ ceiling? Social mobility into Britain's elite occupations. The Sociological Review, 63: 259–289 Gorman, E. (2015) Getting ahead in professional organizations: individual qualities, socioeconomic background and organizational context. Journal of Professions and Organization. doi: 10.1093/jpo/jov001 Ignacio, J., Pastor, M.(2017) Employability of higher education graduates in Spain: crisis and new challenges, Forum Sociológico, 31 (Série II), pp. 21-36. DOI:10.4000/sociologico.1829 Lauder, H. Lauder & Mayhew, K. (2020) Higher education and the labour market: an Introduction, Oxford Review of Education, 46:1, 1-9, DOI: 10.1080/03054985.2019.1699714 Wells, P. J., Florea, S. (2015) Navigating the Transition from Higher Education to the Labour Market: A Wake-Up Call for University Students, Management of Sustainable Development Sibiu, Volume 7(2), December. DOI 10.1515/msd-2015-0028 Pelinescu E., Simionescu M. (2019) Higher Education Policies and Employability of University Graduates in the EU-28, Journal of Intercultural Management, 11(3), September pp. 105–133. DOI 10.2478/joim-2019-0020. Purcell K, et al. (2012) Futuretrack Stage 4: transitions into employment, further study and other outcomes. Warwick: The Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick. Sedghi, A. (2014) Ethnic minorities face barriers to social mobility and job opportunities. Guardian 12 June http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/12/ethnic-minorities-social-mobilityemployment Teichler, Ulrich (2002) Tertiary Education and Management, 8: 199–216, © 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Tholen, G. (2014a) The Changing Nature of the Graduate Labour Market: Media, Policy and Political Discourses in the UK. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan. Tholen, G. and Brown, P. (2017). Higher Education and the Myths of Graduate Employability. In: Waller, R., Ingram, N. and Ward, M.R.M. (Eds.), Higher Education and Social Inequalities: University Admissions, Experiences and Outcomes. Sociological Futures, 1-22. UK: Routledge. ISBN 1138212881. Wilton, N. (2011) Do employability skills really matter in the graduate labour market? The case of business and management graduates. Work, Employment and Society 25(1), pp. 85-100. 22. Research in Higher Education
Paper Graduate Employability in Undergraduate Vocational Education: Insights from the Graduate Capital Model The Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong S.A.R. (China) Presenting Author:In recent years, rapid technological advancement has reshaped the nature of work. Pham and Jackson (2020, pp. 22-25) depicted the modern labour market with three major characteristics of “a knowledge-based economy, labour mobility, and new work arrangements and patterns”. This has distinguished the need for a relatively large share of highly educated and competent young skilled workforce (ILO, 2022). Furthermore, higher education continues to demonstrate a positive association with labour market outcomes for individuals (OECD, 2023). However, traditional academic programs may not fully address employers’ contemporary requirements and expectations (Tushar & Sooraksa, 2023). On the other hand, the global massification of higher education since the mid-20th century has dramatically increased the number of undergraduates entering labour markets. There are growing concerns about an imbalance between graduates and employment opportunities, leading to graduates being unemployed, underemployed, or overeducated (e.g., Hao & Wang, 2022; Marques et al., 2022). ILO (2024) highlights that these youth employment challenges may hinder economic growth, constrain opportunities for social mobility, and affect poverty alleviation efforts, particularly in developing economies. Individually, young people as NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) may feel growing anxiety to push themselves towards extremism, and experience “scarring effects” that could undermine their wages and future career development. Thus, enhancing graduate employability, i.e., the ability of graduates to secure, maintain, and succeed in changing labour markets (Tomlinson & Holmes, 2017), has become a critical mission for higher education worldwide (Abelha et al., 2020). Most nations have redirected their attention towards vocational education, endorsing it to revitalise the economy and enable just transitions to digital and green economies (Cedefop, 2020). This shift has led to the emergence of academic education with a vocational focus and/or elevated vocational education to the tertiary level. An expanding body of literature has discussed graduate employability as a multifaceted concept. Tomlinson (2017) extended Bourdieu’s theory of capital (1986) to conceptualize the Graduate Capital Model, which comprises five interconnected dimensions: human, social, cultural, identity, and psychological capital, to depict graduate employability. In Tomlinson’s Graduate Capital Model, human capital denotes the knowledge, skills, and competencies that graduates acquire through education and training. Social capital encompasses the networks and relationships that graduates build and maintain. Cultural capital involves the accumulation of knowledge, behaviours, and dispositions that align with the workplace's cultural norms and values. Identity Capital refers to the personal investment graduates make in their career development. It encompasses the formation of work identities, career goals, and personal narratives that enable graduates to present themselves as employable candidates. Identity capital is crucial for career planning and setting oneself apart in the job market. Psychological capital refers to psychological resources, e.g., resilience, self-efficacy, adaptability, and optimism. These forms of capital interact with one another, enriching graduates’ overall employability and aiding their successful transition into the labour market. Against this backdrop, this study sheds light on the role of higher vocational education in building and developing graduates’ employability by drawing on Tomlinson’s Graduate Capital Model (2017) and identifying countermeasures for higher education institutions to enhance graduate employability by identifying deficiencies in different forms of graduate capital from diverse perspectives. This study aims to explore the employability of vocational undergraduates in China, a field that remains under-researched. with the aim of enhancing the adapted Scale’s utility for graduates’ self-assessment and informing pedagogical and institutional strategies that support graduates’ successful education-to-work transition. Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used A mixed-methods approach with an explanatory sequential research design was employed to investigate the graduate employability landscape of vocational undergraduates in China through the lens of the Graduate Capital Model (Tomlinson, 2017). This study targeted 33 vocational universities in China that had final-year students and graduates as of 2025. Those are clustered into three groups based on their location’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita: developed, developing, and underdeveloped regions, since vocational education is sensitive to local contexts and local economic development has a great impact on higher vocational education. There are discrepancies in the development of higher vocational education in different regions of China (Wang et al., 2024). Through stratified random sampling, a total of 751 valid responses were collected in the quantitative strand using an online survey based on the validated and adapted 6-point Likert Graduate Capital Scale for multiple regression analysis. The original 45-item scale is grounded in Tomlinson’s Graduate Capital Model and was initially validated among students at elite universities in the United Kingdom. It has been contextually adapted (Li & Wright, 2025) through expert panel review and quantitatively validated in China’s undergraduate vocational education. The translated and adapted scale, comprising 33 items distributed across five interconnected forms of capital, was used to examine the graduate employability of vocational undergraduates and its association with labour market outcomes. Subsequently, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 final-year students and graduates, purposively recruited from the survey respondents, to provide supplementary qualitative insights into how employability is formed and developed within the context of undergraduate vocational education. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings The findings revealed a consistent pattern of cumulative and reciprocal relationships among the five forms of capital underpinning the Graduate Capital Model, indicating that vocational undergraduates’ employability develops through an interconnected and evolving system of resources. Vocational undergraduates’ social networks were largely shaped by the knowledge, skills, and competencies they had acquired through education, and partially influenced by their exposure to professional norms and cultural values. Conversely, the development of vocational undergraduates’ acquired knowledge and skills is closely tied to the strength of their social networks and access to relational resources, suggesting a mutually reinforcing dynamic. Vocational undergraduates’ cultural understanding, self-concept, and psychological adaptability were found to operate as interconnected dimensions of graduate employability, each influencing and being influenced by the others. Within the Graduate Capital Model, human capital emerged as the principal driver of labour market outcomes, reflecting the enduring value of knowledge, skills, and competencies acquired through education in shaping labour market returns. While the other capitals did not demonstrate direct effects on labour market outcomes, they appeared to moderate or reinforce the influence of human capital, further highlighting the relational interdependence among capitals. Overall, the findings reaffirm that Graduate Capital, as an integrated and context-sensitive construct, significantly predicts graduates’ labour market outcomes, underscoring the complex and relational nature of graduate employability. This study extends the applicability of Tomlinson’s Graduate Capital Model to undergraduate vocational education in China and confirms it as a flexible and contextually sensitive framework for understanding employability across diverse cultural and educational systems. In light of global challenges facing youth employment and equity in access to opportunity, this study provides transferable insights for the higher education system navigating reform, particularly in emerging economies, to align vocational pathways with evolving labour market demands within and beyond European contexts. References Bourdieu, P. (1986). The forms of capital. In J. G. Richardson (Ed.), Handbook of theory and research for the sociology of education (pp. 241–259). Greenwood Press. Cedefop (2020). Osnabrück Declaration on vocational education and training as an enabler of recovery and just transitions to digital and green economies. https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/files/osnabrueck_declaration_eu2020.pdf Hao, Z., & Wang, Y. (2022). Education signaling, effort investments, and the market’s expectations: Theory and experiment on China’s higher education expansion. China Economic Review, 75, Article 101848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101848 ILO (2022). Global employment trends for youth 2022: Investing in transforming futures for young people. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_853329.pdf ILO (2024). Global employment trends for youth 2024: Decent work, brighter futures. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/GET_2024_ExecSum_EN_0.pdf Li, J., & Wright, E. (2025). Revisiting the Graduate Capital Scale: A Cross-Cultural Examination for China’s Undergraduate Vocational Graduates’ Employability. Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Higher Education Advances (HEAd’25), Spain, 676-682. https://doi.org/10.4995/HEAd25.2025.20166 Marques, P., Suleman, F., & Costa, J. M. (2022). Moving beyond supply-side arguments to explain over-qualification: The ability to absorb graduates in different models of capitalism. European Journal of Education, 57(2), 342-360. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejed.12500 OECD (2023). Education at a glance 2023: OECD indicators. https://doi.org/10.1787/e13bef63-en Pham, T., & Jackson, D. (2020). The need to develop graduate employability for a globalized world. In T. L. Huu Nghia, T. Pham, M. Tomlinson, K. Medica, & C. Thompson (Eds.), Developing and utilizing employability capitals (1st ed., pp. 237-255). Routledge. Tomlinson, M. (2017). Forms of graduate capital and their relationship to graduate employability. Education + Training, 59(4), 338-352. http://www.emeraldinsight.com/0040-0912.htm Tomlinson, M., & Holmes, L. (Eds.) (2017). Graduate employability in context. Palgrave Macmillan. Tomlinson, M., Port, A., Maguire, N., Zabelski, A. E., Butnaru, A., Charles, M., & Kirby, S. (2022). Developing graduate employability for a challenging labour market: The validation of the graduate capital scale”, Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education, 14(3), 1198-1209. https://doi.org/10.1108/JARHE-04-2021-0151 Tushar, H., & Sooraksa, N. (2023). Global employability skills in the 21st century workplace: A semi-systematic literature review. Heliyon, 9, Article e21023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21023 Wang, Y., Yin, X., & Zhu, Y. (2024). A study of the impact of economic development across China on higher vocational education. Journal of Education Humanities and Social Sciences, 26, 296-303. https://doi.org/10.54097/0wdeqv07 22. Research in Higher Education
Paper Fields of Study and Dual Returns: Market and Institutional Pathways for Rural Higher Education Students in China University College London, United Kingdom Presenting Author:This paper examines how fields of study shape differentiated pathways of upward mobility for rural-origin university graduates, with a particular focus on the interaction between market-based and institutionally mediated returns to higher education. While research on higher education stratification has convincingly demonstrated that subject fields are associated with unequal labour-market outcomes, existing work has largely concentrated on earnings and occupational status (Yu & Hseih, 2022; Minaya et al., 2024). Much less attention has been paid to how subject differentiation structures access to state-allocated resources and institutional status, particularly in contexts where education functions as a key channel of institutional inclusion beyond labour-market outcomes. Using China as an empirical case, this study asks: through what pathways do rural-origin higher education graduates achieve upward mobility, and how do different fields of study shape these pathways? Specifically, it investigates how subject choices generate differentiated economic returns (income) and institutional returns, operationalised as access to urban hukou and political incorporation, and how these outcomes are mediated by graduates’ employment in subject-related sectors. The paper adopts a dual-pathway framework, distinguishing between market-based returns and institutional returns to education. This framework builds on research on horizontal stratification in higher education, which shows that qualitative differentiation, such as fields of study, shapes life chances beyond educational level or institutional prestige (Agbonlahor, 2025; Sullivan et al., 2018). While the Effectively Maintained Inequality (EMI) perspective highlights the importance of qualitative distinctions under educational expansion (Lucas, 2001), most empirical applications have focused on market outcomes in Western contexts. This study extends the framework by systematically incorporating non-market and institutional outcomes into the analysis of field-specific returns. China provides a particularly informative case for education researchers because it represents a hybrid institutional environment in which market mechanisms coexist with strong state involvement in allocating educational and social opportunities. A central institutional mechanism in this context is the hukou (household registration) system, which regulates access to public services, welfare benefits, and formal employment in urban areas (Wu & Treiman, 2004). For rural-origin students, higher education functions not only as a means of skill acquisition but also as a pathway to institutional inclusion, with access to urban hukou reshaping long-term educational, occupational, and family trajectories (Bian & Li, 2014; Xiao & Bian, 2018). To explain these patterns, the paper draws on Bourdieu’s analysis of institutional reproduction and Collins’s theory of credentialism and position competition. From a Bourdieusian perspective, higher education is structured by the dual-polarised matrix of institutional reproduction of the “state nobility” (Bourdieu, 1998). One pole is oriented towards science and knowledge, while the other is oriented towards administration and economic power. Fields of study are unevenly positioned within this structure, channelling graduates into distinct market-oriented or institution-oriented pathways. Within this framework, market-oriented pathways emphasise the conversion of field-specific skills into earnings, with returns shaped by industry demand. Institutional pathways, by contrast, operate through state recognition of credentials and access to administratively allocated resources. Collins’s theory of credentialism further highlights that, under educational expansion, credentials function as mechanisms of positional competition rather than neutral indicators of productivity (Collins, 2019). Together, these perspectives show how field-specific stratification operates through both market valuation and institutional allocation. By discussing institutional returns alongside income outcomes, this study adds to European debates on higher education, social inclusion, and inequality. Although the hukou system is specific to China, the paper advances a transferable analytical framework for understanding how fields of study shape access to welfare, public-sector employment, and civic incorporation in different national contexts. In doing so, it contributes to ECER discussions on how education systems mediate social mobility within diverse institutional arrangements. Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used Data This study draws on data from the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) 2018, a nationally representative survey that provides detailed information on individuals’ educational trajectories, labour-market outcomes, household background, and institutional status. The 2018 sample is drawn from the 2013 Urban-Rural Integrated Household Survey database conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (2025), which covers 160,000 households across all 31 provinces of China (Beijing Normal University, n.d.). The analytical sample consists of individuals born between 1960 and 1995 who obtained higher education and originated from rural areas, defined by hukou status at birth. Focusing on multiple birth cohorts enables the analysis to capture changes in the returns to fields of study across different stages of China’s higher education expansion and market reform. The sample is further restricted to individuals observed after entry into the labour market, ensuring that both economic and institutional outcomes can be meaningfully assessed. Key independent variables include fields of study, categorised into STEM, law/ economics/ management (LEM), and humanities. The main outcome variables capture two dimensions of returns to education: market returns, measured by individual income, and institutional returns, operationalised as the acquisition of urban hukou status by 18 – 25-year-olds. Additional variables include industry of employment, cohorts, demographic characteristics, and family background measures. Sampling weights are applied to ensure national representativeness. Analytical Approach First, the study estimates the association between fields of study and income returns using multivariate regression models, controlling for individual characteristics, cohort effects, and family background. This step establishes patterns of horizontal stratification in market outcomes among rural-origin graduates. Second, the analysis examines institutional returns by modelling the likelihood of obtaining urban hukou as a function of field of study. Next, to capture the joint distribution of market and institutional returns, the study constructs a combined outcome typology that classifies graduates according to their income level and hukou status. This classification enables a more integrated assessment of upward mobility, revealing how different fields of study lead to distinct combinations of labour-market position and institutional mobility. Finally, the study investigates mechanisms by examining the role of employment in field-related industries. Mediation effect and moderation effect are tested to assess whether and how industry matching differentially channels market and institutional returns across subject groups. Heckman two-step estimation is used as a robustness check. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings This study examines how fields of study shape differentiated returns to higher education for rural-origin students in China, focusing on economic and institutional dimensions of status attainment. By comparing income and urban hukou transfer, the analysis shows that subject choice produces distinct configurations of socio-economic status rather than a single hierarchy of advantage within China’s hybrid system. Economic returns decline from STEM to law, economics and management, and to humanities, consistent with evidence from other countries (e.g. Britton et al., 2022). In contrast, institutional returns increase in the same order. Thus, subject choices structure mobility through different combinations of market positioning and institutional inclusion, meaning wage-based evaluations overlook key inequalities operating through other channels. These outcomes are mediated by employment in subject-related industries. STEM graduates’ income advantages materialise mainly when they work in STEM-related sectors (Kinsler & Pavan, 2015). By contrast, humanities graduates’ higher likelihood of hukou transfer reflects their greater propensity to enter institutionally related occupations. Historically, humanities subjects held a central position in China’s educational tradition and were linked to bureaucratic status and symbolic prestige (Hayhoe, 2001). This legacy persisted in the early reform period, when humanities graduates had higher hukou transfer rates, even for those from junior colleges. In line with market transition, this institutional advantage weakened, while STEM became the main pathway to high income, but with limited institutional returns. In conclusion, these findings offer a new perspective on educational stratification in contexts where market and institutional logics coexist. It contributes to international debates on higher education and social mobility by highlighting how fields of study channel graduates into different modes of stratification depending on the institutional environment. This research calls for a broader conceptualisation of educational returns related to historical legacies and state involvement in the allocation of social opportunities. References Agbonlahor, O. (2025). What’s an academic discipline worth? Analyzing economic, subjective, and class identity returns to higher education. 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In Knowledge Across Cultures: A Contribution to the Dialogue among Civilizations, edited by Ruth Hayhoe and Julia Pan (Hong Kong: Comparative Education Research Centre, 2001), pp. 334-370. Kinsler, J., & Pavan, R. (2015). The specificity of general human capital: Evidence from college major choice. Journal of Labor Economics, 33(4), 933-972. Lucas, S. R. (2001). Effectively maintained inequality: Education transitions, track mobility, and social background effects. American journal of sociology, 106(6), 1642-1690. Minaya, V., Scott-Clayton, J., & Zhou, R. Y. (2024). Heterogeneity in labor market returns to master’s degrees: Evidence from Ohio. Research in Higher Education, 65(5), 775-793. Sullivan, A., Parsons, S., Green, F., Wiggins, R. D., & Ploubidis, G. (2018). Elite universities, fields of study and top salaries: Which degree will make you rich?. British Educational Research Journal, 44(4), 663-680. Wu, X., & Treiman, D. J. (2004). 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