Conference Agenda

The next generation of video media and the next generation of regulation: the policy and regulatory scenarios, how and by whom?

Reviewing the toolsets and the institutions.

This is a continuation of extensive work by the author on next-generation video media and their impact on the wider digital environment.

The main research question for the paper is a 3-step:

• what will be the impact of an AI-driven video entertainment system on network infrastructure needs;
• how will the infrastructure economics of the emerging system affect the market structure of infrastructure providers;
• what are the regulatory implications.

Video traffic accounts for 82% of all global internet traffic. YouTube and Netflix alone account for almost a third of Internet traffic. Given those magnitudes it is important to analyze:

1. the expected impacts of the next generation of video on the required transmission capacity, processing, storage and other infrastructure. That next generation of video will include elements of AI, which will power a more experiential (not: experimental) engagement with video, affected by videogames. There will be greater and seamless individualization and interactivity, plus other features. Together, they require a much greater bit-density, vastly more processing, as well as more individualized and two-way transmission streams. The required investments, in turn, will create a next generation of issues of affordability and accessibility.
2. The industrial economies of such a system, and the likely market structure that will emerge, both nationally and globally, is a critically important issue for media and infrastructure policies. It will define the market power and gatekeeping of the major media platforms. And it will also define the buildout of networks that can be used for many applications beyond video.

This paper will take recent work by the author a step forward by looking at the regulatory remedies that are likely— the options and their advantages and drawbacks.

The first question is about investments. It requires projections of data flows for a widespread next-gen video system, the expansion, in percentage, of today’s networks, and the implication on enduser prices, and in turn affordability and constraints on buildouts. This part of the paper will be data-driven, based on processing and transmission needs for an upgraded video. The methodology will be that of network engineering and network economics.

The second question is about regulation. Given that these developments will happen – the only question is only how soon—it is important to be prepared to explore the likely regulatory options: antitrust remedies; national content quotas; access requirements; subsidies; public service media; requirements on platforms and data centers; and more. Some of this echoes traditional issues, but there are new ones and new variations. And the next question then is by what kind of institutions such regulation would be handled, nationally and globally.

For this segment, the methodology is that of regulatory economics and law. The discussion will review each option and analyze it.

The provisional conclusion is that infrastructure investments are extensive, especially in the processing, and will significantly lag for low density areas and poor countries; that the trend towards concentration will increase significantly and expand globally; and that regulatory policies need to be thought through rapidly in order not to be overwhelmed by predictable problems.

Exploring the next generation of video infrastructure issues is novel and forward looking. I will add a research agenda for the TPRC community to consider for their future work.

Related Literature

Zvezdan Vukanovic, TV and AI

Author, on next-generation video

Herman Narulla, Virtual Society

Lee Rainie, The Metaverse in 2040

Melissa Haikkila, Six ways we can regulate AI