Conference Agenda

Consumer spending on video services in the United States has risen dramatically over the past four decades, even as the structure of the video marketplace has been repeatedly transformed by technological change and new entrants. During this same period, broadcast ownership groups consolidated, cable and satellite distributors merged into large multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs), and online video services (OVDs) emerged as major competitors in video distribution. These developments raise a central policy question: to what extent are rising consumer costs associated with increasing concentration in video markets versus broader structural and technological shifts in the industry? While debates over media consolidation and digital platform power remain prominent in communications policy, relatively little longitudinal empirical work connects structural concentration across multiple video sectors to changes in consumer spending. This paper addresses that gap.

The central research question is: How have changes in concentration across broadcast television, pay television distribution, and online video services corresponded with changes in consumer video costs and spending in the United States between 1984 and 2025? By examining concentration trends alongside consumer expenditures over a forty-year period, the study evaluates whether structural consolidation in video markets has corresponded with measurable changes in consumer financial burden.

The analysis examines three major segments of the video ecosystem: (1) broadcast television networks and station ownership groups, (2) pay television distribution markets including cable and satellite MVPDs, and (3) online video services including subscription streaming platforms. For each sector, market concentration will be measured using standard industrial organization metrics, including the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and concentration ratios (CR4 and CR8). Market share data will be drawn from regulatory filings, company financial disclosures, and industry datasets tracking audience reach and subscriber levels.

To evaluate consumer impact, the study compiles longitudinal data on consumer spending on video services, including cable and satellite subscription costs, retransmission-related price increases embedded in MVPD pricing, and household spending on subscription streaming platforms. These data will be drawn from sources such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey, Federal Communications Commission reports on cable pricing, Securities and Exchange Commission filings, and industry market research reports.

The empirical strategy combines descriptive trend analysis with econometric modeling. First, the paper constructs a dataset tracking annual concentration metrics and consumer video expenditures from 1984 to 2025. Second, regression models estimate the relationship between concentration measures and consumer costs while controlling for structural variables such as inflation, technological change (including broadband penetration), and shifts in distribution technologies. The extended time frame captures several important regulatory and technological turning points, including cable consolidation in the 1990s and 2000s, the growth of satellite competition, the retransmission consent regime, and the rapid expansion of streaming services after 2010.

Preliminary analysis suggests that concentration dynamics differ across segments of the video marketplace. Broadcast ownership consolidation accelerated following regulatory changes in the 1990s and 2000s, while MVPD distribution markets have remained highly concentrated at the local level. In contrast, the online video sector initially expanded rapidly with numerous entrants before showing signs of consolidation as major technology and media firms gained dominant positions. Over the same period, consumer spending on video services has increased substantially—first through rising cable subscription fees and more recently through the accumulation of multiple streaming subscriptions.

By constructing a unified longitudinal dataset linking market structure and consumer expenditures across three distinct video sectors, the study provides one of the first systematic empirical comparisons of how concentration dynamics in legacy and digital video markets relate to consumer costs over time.

This research contributes to policy discussions regarding competition and regulation in communications and digital media markets. Regulators increasingly face questions about market power in both legacy media industries and digital platforms. By providing a long-run empirical analysis linking market concentration patterns to consumer spending, the paper offers evidence relevant to merger review, media ownership policy, and regulatory oversight of video distribution platforms in the evolving digital economy. The results may help policymakers evaluate whether consolidation in video markets has imposed measurable consumer costs or whether rising expenditures are primarily driven by technological transition and evolving industry structure.