SFS Cavalcade North America 2026
Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia
May 18-21, 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 18th Apr 2026, 05:19:22am EDT
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Agenda Overview |
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Track W6-6: Macro-Finance
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| Presentations | ||
The Global Credit Cycle 1Federal Reserve Bank of New York; 2CEPR and CESIfo Using a large cross-section of corporate bond returns around the world, we construct a novel global credit factor that prices international corporate bonds in both the time-series and the cross-section. We estimate the global credit factor as a function of both the VIX and U.~S. credit spreads, and show that incorporating information from nonlinearities and from interactions between the two is important for the forecasting performance of the global credit factor. In the cross-section, riskier bonds and bonds of issuers in riskier countries have a higher loading on the global credit factor. Periods of tight credit conditions correspond not only to larger probabilities of negative bond returns and higher future bond return volatility but, importantly, to a persistent deterioration in firms' credit risk and increases in credit spreads, especially for riskier firms. This suggests that increases in the global price of credit risk have real consequences for corporate bond borrowers.
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