SFS Cavalcade North America 2026
Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia
May 18-21, 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 18th Apr 2026, 05:18:26am EDT
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Agenda Overview |
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Track W4-6: Climate and Asset Pricing
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Blame it on the weather: Market implied weather volatility and firm performance 1Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University; 2Bauer College of Business, University of Houston; 3DeGroote School of Business, McMaster University; 4BI Norwegian Business School; 5College of Business and Analytics, Southern Illinois University We provide the first analysis of firms' exposure to market expectations of future weather volatility. Using option contracts on temperature indices, we estimate the weather option implied volatility (WIVOL) and document it captures risks of future temperature oscillations, increasing with climate uncertainty about physical events and regulatory policies. Local weather risk shocks worsen operating performance and increase uncertainty about fundamentals, indicating incomplete hedging. The magnitude of these effects suggests that, while managers acknowledge weather risk, they seem to blame it on the weather rather than implementing risk management policies. In asset prices, firms with more negative return exposure to WIVOL trade at a discount and earn higher future returns, consistent with a compensation for weather volatility risk. Only exposures to local, not foreign, WIVOL predict returns, revealing a local channel for pricing uncertainty shocks.
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