SFS Cavalcade North America 2026
Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia
May 18-21, 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 18th Apr 2026, 05:18:03am EDT
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Agenda Overview |
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Track W6-5: Macro-Finance
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| Presentations | ||
Predicting Fiscal Armageddons The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania We propose a novel approach to sovereign crises. Using seven decades of data for 40 economies, we show that as governments devote more revenue towards debt service, growth slows. If fiscal surpluses do not adjust, inflationary pressures build: deficits financed through money creation or excessive borrowing undermine price stability and erode confidence. Developed economies raise primary surpluses almost twice as much as emerging economies in response to higher interest burdens. As a result, developed economies experience slower growth with disinflation, while emerging economies face smaller output losses but much higher inflation. Debt burdens predict hyperinflation and disasters in consumption and output.
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