SFS Cavalcade North America 2026
Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia
May 18-21, 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 18th Apr 2026, 05:20:29am EDT
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Agenda Overview |
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Track W1-3: Government Policies and Financial Markets
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Partisan Fed London Business School I show that political alignment between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and the incumbent U.S. President systematically influences monetary policy. I construct two novel, individual-level measures of political alignment for each member of the FOMC, based on their political campaign contributions and political appointments to public roles. Using a stacked Difference-in-Differences design around presidential party transitions from 1990, I find that a individual-level positive shift in political alignment with the sitting U.S. President leads FOMC members toward more expansionary policy preferences and more optimistic macroeconomic forecasts (over-forecasting GDP and under-forecasting inflation). The results also hold when examining historical FOMC votes starting from 1936. At the committee level, a one-point increase in political alignment of the FOMC lowers the federal funds rate by approximately 25 basis points relative to the Federal Reserve staff’s benchmark recommendation. These politically-driven rate decisions generate a partisan business cycle: periods of political alignment between the Fed and the executive lead to more frequent interest rate cuts, stimulating short-term gains in real gdp, employment, and stock market, but contributing to higher inflation in the long run. Conversely, during periods of political misalignment the FOMC raises interest rates above the apolitical benchmark, resulting in short-run output contractions, but controlling long-run inflation.
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