SFS Cavalcade North America 2026
Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia
May 18-21, 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 18th June 2026, 05:25:19pm EDT
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Daily Overview |
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Track TH7-3: Learning, Beliefs, and Disagreement
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Analysts' Belief Formation in Their Own Words Yale School of Management I study how equity analysts form subjective beliefs about firms' earnings using their own written text from over 1.1 million equity research reports. Using large language models, I identify the topics discussed by analysts and represent topic-level information using textual embeddings. I introduce a two-stage procedure that builds on the classic Coibion-Gorodnichenko regression to uncover analysts' over- and underreaction to specific information. Using this new procedure, I find that the overreaction in long-term forecasts is concentrated in qualitative, intangible topics rather than quantitative, statistical ones. Revisions driven by qualitative information in long-term earnings forecasts strongly predict future stock returns. From linguistic expression, I find suggestive evidence that overconfidence is an important driver of the overreaction to qualitative information.
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