SFS Cavalcade North America 2026
Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia
May 18-21, 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 18th Apr 2026, 05:19:22am EDT
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Agenda Overview |
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Track TH6-2: International Finance
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Exchange Rate Expectations and Currency Demand University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute This paper develops a new method to extract exchange rate expectations from investment positions. I use relative allocations between otherwise identical exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offered with and without a currency hedge to measure investors’ pure currency demand and infer a distribution of currency return expectations. These portfolioimplied expectations predict future exchange rates more accurately than survey-based expectations or expectations derived from macroeconomic models or currency pricing factors. Dispersion in portfolio-implied expectations accounts for 27% of exchange rate volatility, consistent with models of heterogeneous beliefs.
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