Conference Agenda

We study a token-based platform where users choose between adopting the platform’s service and speculating on its native token. While both adopters and speculators earn the token’s capital gain, adopters also incur a participation cost to obtain a noisy service benefit enhanced by network effects. This tension between adoption and speculation can suppress participation, halt learning, and trigger collapse even when expected fundamentals are strong. We characterize the participation threshold, show how token-price volatility expands the collapse region, and identify the resulting learning traps. The model implies that inflation and adopter-targeted incentives support participation, whereas subsidies to speculators increase fragility.