SFS Cavalcade North America 2026
Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia
May 18-21, 2026
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 18th Apr 2026, 05:18:01am EDT
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Agenda Overview |
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Track W7-1: Asset Pricing: Credit and Derivatives
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Pricing Government Contract Risk Premia: Evidence from the 2025 Federal Lease Terminations 1Rochester Institute of Technology; 2Yale School of Management Recent shifts in federal real estate policy, marked by lease cancellations and non-renewals, challenge the long-standing perception of government contracts as a secure and stable investment. We investigate how federal lease cancellations impact the pricing of government contract risk premia. Using unanticipated Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cancellations as a shock to commercial mortgage default risk, we find that first-loss CMBS bond tranches backed by loans tied to DOGE-notified leases experience a persistent 4% decline in price, with large, negative spillover effects to bond prices, delinquency rates, and rental cash flows tied to nearby private-tenant leases. These results reflect that early termination options were previously perceived by investors as a dormant clause. Applying arbitrage pricing models of commercial lease contingencies confirms the underpricing of risk associated with government tenants. Simulations of tail risks from early termination exposure result in aggregate property value losses in excess of $575 million for the Washington, D.C. securitized office market alone – well above total potential taxpayer savings from canceled lease payments.
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