Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 09:46:15am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track W7-2: Risk, Return, and Asset Pricing
Time:
Wednesday, 21/May/2025:
9:30am - 10:15am

Session Chair: Svetlana Bryzgalova, London Business School
Discussant: Ivan Shaliastovich, University of Wisconsin Madison
Location: Gateway North 103


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Presentations

Good Variance, Bad Variance: Cash-Flows, Discount Rates, and the Risk-Return Relationship

Brandon Bates1, Brian Boyer1, Carter Davis2, Tyler Shumway1

1Brigham Young University; 2Indiana University

We decompose conditional variance into the sum of two components: one driven by uncertainty about cash-flow growth, or bad variance, and a second driven by uncertainty about discount rates, or good variance. We develop a simple theoretical model with time-varying second conditional moments and document empirical evidence that suggests bad variance earns a risk premium that is statistically and economically significant, whereas good variance does not. In out-of-sample tests we find that bad variance dominates other predictors of market returns and can help identify the gap between the lower bound of Martin (2016) and the actual market risk premium.

Bates-Good Variance, Bad Variance-1631.pdf


 
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