Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 10:15:06am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track W3-4: Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Asset Prices
Time:
Wednesday, 21/May/2025:
11:30am - 12:15pm

Session Chair: Anna Cieslak, Duke
Discussant: Michelle Andreoli, Boston College
Location: Gateway North 204


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Presentations

The Debt Ceiling's Disruptive Impact: Evidence from Many Markets

William Morgan Cassidy, Shreye Mirani

Washington University in St. Louis

We show that the debt ceiling significantly impacts the duration of government liabilities through an unintended interaction of the Treasury’s issuance rules and the debt ceiling constraint. During debt ceiling episodes, the Treasury systematically allows more bills to mature than it issues. In recent years this force has induced fluctuations in bill supply greater than one percent of GDP. Exploiting this, we devise an instrument for the supply of bills and show that the debt ceiling has distorted the price of short-term investment-grade corporate credit in both the primary and secondary markets. Our preferred IV specifications imply that a one hundred billion dollar decline in bill supply depresses corporate yields on the order of ten basis points.

Cassidy-The Debt Ceilings Disruptive Impact-731.pdf


 
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