Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 3rd July 2025, 06:22:54am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track T7-4: Stakeholders, Politics, and Firm Behavior
Time:
Tuesday, 20/May/2025:
11:30am - 12:15pm

Session Chair: Paola Sapienza, Stanford University
Discussant: Tong Liu, MIT Sloan
Location: Gateway South 122


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Presentations

Taking the Road Less Traveled? Market Misreaction and Firm Innovation Directions

Tianshu Lyu1, Zunda Winston Xu2

1Yale University; 2Stanford University

We propose that investors misreact differently to technological innovations based on novelty, and that these misreactions exert a real impact on firms' future innovations. First, using textual measures of novelty, we find that investors underreact to the issuance of path-breaking innovations but overreact to trend-following ones. Novel patent issuance predicts lower risk and positive forecast errors, consistent with a non-risk-based mispricing mechanism. A model where boundedly-rational investors are unsure about the true novelty of a patent at issuance, explains the empirical patterns well. Second, using exogenous distraction shocks, such as sensational news, we present causal evidence that, after disappointing returns to patent news, novel firms shift from creating and following up on novel innovations to copycatting. The findings highlight that investors' misreactions to patent novelty steer innovation away from higher-valued, groundbreaking research.

Lyu-Taking the Road Less Traveled Market Misreaction and Firm Innovation Directions-1549.pdf


 
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