Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 03:40:00am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track T6-5: Mortgages and Real Estate
Time:
Tuesday, 20/May/2025:
1:45pm - 2:30pm

Session Chair: Manuel Adelino, Duke
Discussant: Christophe Spaenjers, University of Colorado Boulder
Location: Gateway North 204


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Presentations

Extend-and-Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market

Matteo Crosignani1, Saketh Prazad2

1New York Fed, CEPR; 2Harvard University

We show that banks “extended-and-pretended” their impaired CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to avoid writing off their capital, leading to credit misallocation and a buildup of financial fragility. We detect this behavior using loan-level supervisory data on maturity extensions, bank assessment of credit risk, and realized defaults for loans to property owners and REITs. Extend-and-pretend crowds out new credit provision, leading to a 4.8–5.3% drop in CRE mortgage origination since 2022:Q1 and fuels the amount of CRE mortgages maturing in the near term. As of 2023:Q4, this “maturity wall” represents 27% of bank capital.

Crosignani-Extend-and-Pretend in the US CRE Market-499.pdf


 
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