Too-Many-to-Ignore: Regional Banks and CRE Risks
Franz J Hinzen1, Felipe Severino1, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh2,3
1Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth; 2Columbia Business School; 3NBER
Over the past decade, the share of commercial real estate (CRE) loans held by regional banks increased significantly. Today, these banks are the largest holders of commercial mortgages with more than one third of U.S. commercial mortgage dollars on regional bank balance sheets. Recent declines in commercial property valuations have raised concerns that regional banks' substantial loan exposure to this asset class may cause fractures in the banking system and spill over to the wider economy. Despite the risk of such externalities, the role of regional banks in this market has received little attention so far. We characterize bank's expansion over the last ten years and argue that regional banks' expansion into markets outside their local expertise face heightened risks.