Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 10:12:02am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track T6-3: Mortgages and Real Estate
Time:
Tuesday, 20/May/2025:
10:30am - 11:15am

Session Chair: Manuel Adelino, Duke
Discussant: Daniel Greenwald, NYU Stern School of Business
Location: Gateway North 204


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Presentations

Mortgage Structure, Financial Stability, and Risk Sharing

Vadim Elenev1, Lu Liu2

1Johns Hopkins University, Carey Business School; 2The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Mortgage structure matters not only for monetary policy transmission, but also for financial stability. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) expose households to rising rates, increasing default risk through higher payments, while fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) protect households but potentially expose banks to greater interest rate risk. To evaluate these competing forces, we develop a quantitative model with flexible mortgage contracts, liquidity- and net worth-driven household default, and a banking sector with sticky deposits and occasionally binding constraints. We find financial stability risks exhibit a U-shaped relationship with mortgage fixation length. FRMs benefit from deposit rate stickiness, reducing volatility, whereas ARMs provide net worth hedging by concentrating defaults when intermediary net worth is high, thus lowering risk premia. An intermediate fixation length balances these effects, minimizing banking sector volatility and improving aggregate risk-sharing. Our model explains observed differences in delinquencies, house prices, and bank equity prices between ARM and FRM countries during 2022–2023, with implications for mortgage design, macroprudential regulation, and monetary policy.

Elenev-Mortgage Structure, Financial Stability, and Risk Sharing-743.pdf


 
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