Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Session Overview |
Session | ||
Track TH8-2: Macro-finance
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Presentations | ||
Leverage Dynamics and Learning about Economic Crises 1Imperial College Business School; 2Tepper School of Business, Carnegie-Mellon Models of learning about economic crises generate risk premia that rise at the onset of a crisis, but then fall as belief uncertainty fades. In contrast, empirical risk premia remain elevated during crises. We resolve this tension via leverage dynamics generated by the impact of learning on optimal default and capital structure decisions within a representative agent consumption-based model. Endogenously time-varying leverage creates a feedback loop: the learning-induced slow recovery in equity prices raises leverage, thereby further depressing equity values and keeping the equity premium and credit spreads persistently high as the crisis unfolds. We structurally estimate the model and show it closely matches the joint dynamics of consumption, equity risk premia, credit risk, and leverage, especially during crises, together with the term structure of credit risk and default probabilities.
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