Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 10:12:03am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track W2-4: Institutional Investors and Financial Intermediation
Time:
Wednesday, 21/May/2025:
11:30am - 12:15pm

Session Chair: Alberto Rossi, Georgetown University
Discussant: Si Cheng, Syracuse University
Location: Gateway South 122


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Presentations

Do Trades and Holdings of Market Participants Contain Information About Stocks? A Machine-Learning Approach

Victor DeMiguel1, Li Guo2, Bo Sang3, Zhe Zhang4

1London Business School; 2School of Economics, Fudan University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics; 3School of Business, University of Bristol; 4Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University

We use machine learning to capture nonlinearities and interactions in the relation between trades and holdings of multiple market participants and future stock returns. Our predictor yields a long-short portfolio with significant out-of-sample alpha, forecasts firm fundamentals, and assigns stocks on the right side of most anomalies. Predictability is stronger for smaller or illiquid stocks and stocks with lower analyst coverage or higher idiosyncratic volatility. A factor model based on our predictor achieves higher Sharpe ratio than existing models. Our findings suggest that incorporating nonlinear interactions between trades and holdings of various participants reveals valuable information for price discovery.

DeMiguel-Do Trades and Holdings of Market Participants Contain Information-1121.pdf


 
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