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Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 03:27:38am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track TH1-5: Asset Pricing
Time:
Thursday, 22/May/2025:
1:45pm - 2:30pm

Session Chair: Toomas Laarits, NYU Stern School of Business
Discussant: Sean Myers, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Location: Babbio Center Auditorium


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Presentations

A Model-Free Assessment of the Importance of Subjective Beliefs for Asset Pricing

Paymon Khorrami

Duke University

Are belief dynamics or risks and risk attitudes more important for asset pricing? Allowing both, I use survey data combined with subjective-belief versions of stochastic discount factor (SDF) volatility bounds to shed new light on this classic question. I estimate lower bounds for the volatility of the SDF attributable to (i) risks relevant for investor marginal utility, versus (ii) subjective belief dynamics. The estimates suggest that risks, particularly long-term risks, make up at least half of SDF volatility. An example extrapolation model with a modest direct contribution of beliefs to SDF volatility (about 25%) can account for my estimates. This example also highlights the potential for a novel mechanism, subjective risk, which is the indirect impact of beliefs on asset prices through induced marginal utility volatility.

Khorrami-A Model-Free Assessment of the Importance of Subjective Beliefs-1599.pdf


 
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