Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 03:43:45am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track W3-1: Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Asset Prices
Time:
Wednesday, 21/May/2025:
8:30am - 9:15am

Session Chair: Anna Cieslak, Duke
Discussant: Paymon Khorrami, Duke University
Location: Gateway North 204


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Presentations

Equity Premium Events

Ben Knox, Juan Londono, Mehrdad Samadi, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

Federal Reserve Board

We develop a methodology to determine which days are “equity premium events”: events with significantly elevated equity premia relative to the daily equity term structure. To do so, we use recently available daily S&P 500 option expirations and forward analogs of option-implied ex ante measures of the equity premium. We use a data-driven approach to identify events that are significantly priced without taking a stance on what those events are. A variety of individual events are associated with significantly elevated equity premia. Among macroeconomic releases, FOMC, CPI, and nonfarm payrolls have the largest abnormal equity premia, which increase substantially between June 2022 and June 2023. However, the elevated equity premia on macroeconomic release days account for a significantly smaller share of total expected returns compared to previous estimates using realized excess returns. To provide intuition for the significant variation in equity premia across announcement types and time, we propose an asset pricing framework that decomposes the equity premium for a given macroeconomic release into components due to news variance and the sensitivities of the stock market and the SDF to the news released.

Knox-Equity Premium Events-232.pdf


 
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