Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 14th May 2024, 02:24:58am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track T8-5: Return Expectations of Households and Professionals
Time:
Tuesday, 21/May/2024:
1:45pm - 2:30pm

Session Chair: Alessandro Previtero, Indiana University
Discussant: Carter Davis, Indiana University
Location: Room 610


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Presentations

The Cross-section of Subjective Expectations: Understanding Prices and Anomalies

Sean Myers1, Ricardo De la O2, Xiao Han3

1The Wharton School; 2USC Marshall School of Business; 3Bayes Business School

We propose a structural model of constant gain learning about future earnings growth that incorporates preferences for the timing of cash flows. As implied by the model, a cross-sectional decomposition using survey forecasts shows that high price-earnings ratios are accounted for by both low expected returns and overly high expected earnings growth. The model quantitatively matches a number of asset pricing moments, as learning about growth interacts strongly with the preference for the timing of cash flows, and provides insights on the roles of risk premia and mispricing in the cross-section of stocks. The magnitudes and timing of the comovement between prices, earnings growth surprises, and anomaly returns are all consistent with a gradual learning process rather than expectations being highly sensitive to the most recent realization. Large earnings growth surprises do not immediately translate into large one-period returns, but instead are gradually reflected in future returns over time.


Myers-The Cross-section of Subjective Expectations-168.pdf


 
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