Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 14th May 2024, 05:21:27pm EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track M8-5: Disagreement, beliefs and asset prices
Time:
Monday, 20/May/2024:
1:45pm - 2:30pm

Session Chair: Sean Myers, The Wharton School
Discussant: Peter Maxted, UC Berkeley
Location: Room 619


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Presentations

Monetary Policy, Extrapolation Bias, and Misallocation

Yuchen Chen

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

This paper studies the distributional effects of earning extrapolation bias on monetary transmission. Empirically, over-pessimistic firms with lower earning forecasts have higher investment elasticity to monetary shocks, which is more pronounced in the advertising-intensive industries. I develop a dynamic model to quantify the effects of extrapolation bias in a frictional product market, where firms extrapolate over idiosyncratic productivity news when making decisions on physical investment and customer acquisition. The model implies that firm-level overreaction amplifies the allocative efficiency of monetary easing: it raises aggregate productivity as capital flows to high markup firms. Moreover, the rise in aggregate output is underestimated by 57% if we assume rational expectation.


Chen-Monetary Policy, Extrapolation Bias, and Misallocation-277.pdf


 
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