Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 13th May 2024, 06:12:02pm EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track M8-3: Disagreement, beliefs and asset prices
Time:
Monday, 20/May/2024:
10:30am - 11:15am

Session Chair: Sean Myers, The Wharton School
Discussant: Thummim Cho, Korea University
Location: Room 619


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Presentations

End of an era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns

Michael Smolyansky

Federal Reserve

I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period’s exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future.


Smolyansky-End of an era-471.pdf


 
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