Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 14th May 2024, 07:49:42pm EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track M8-2: Disagreement, beliefs and asset prices
Time:
Monday, 20/May/2024:
9:30am - 10:15am

Session Chair: Sean Myers, The Wharton School
Discussant: Yinan Su, Johns Hopkins University
Location: Room 619


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Presentations

Crash Narratives

Dasol Kim1, Will Goetzmann2, Bob Shiller2

1Office of Financial Research; 2Yale University

The financial press is a conduit for popular narratives that reflect collective memory about historical events. Some collective memories relate to major stock market crashes, and investors may rely on associated narratives, or “crash narratives,” to inform current beliefs and choices. Using recent advances in computational linguistics, we develop a higher-order measure of narrativity based on newspaper articles that appear following major crashes. We provide evidence that crash narratives propagate broadly once they appear in news articles, and significantly explain predictive variation in market volatility. We exploit investor heterogeneity using survey data to distinguish the effects of narrativity and fundamental conditions and find consistent evidence. Finally, we develop a measure of pure narrativity to examine when financial press is more likely to employ narratives.


Kim-Crash Narratives-694.pdf


 
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