Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 14th May 2024, 03:15:21am EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track M7-5: The Cross-Section of Stock, Bond and Currency Returns
Time:
Monday, 20/May/2024:
1:45pm - 2:30pm

Session Chair: Lars Lochstoer, UCLA
Discussant: Toomas Laarits, NYU Stern
Location: Room 601


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Presentations

Political risk everywhere

Vito Gala1, Giovanni Pagliardi2, Ivan Shaliastovich3, Stavros Zenios4

1Morningstar Investment Management LLC; 2BI Norwegian Business School; 3University of Wisconsin-Madison; 4Durham University and University of Cyprus

We show that country risk premia include compensation for global political risk. Political risk premia drive international returns within and across asset classes, including equities, bonds, and currencies. A strong factor structure in politically sorted portfolios uncovers systematic variations in global political risk (P-factor). The P-factor commands a significant risk premium of 4.44% per annum with a Sharpe ratio of 0.70, and together with the global market portfolio, it explains up to three-quarters of cross-sectional variation in a large panel of asset returns. The P-factor is unspanned by the existing asset pricing factors, manifests in all asset classes, and is related to systematic variations in expected global growth and aggregate volatility.


Gala-Political risk everywhere-856.pdf


 
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