Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 13th May 2024, 06:10:35pm EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track W4-2: The Financing of Innovation
Time:
Wednesday, 22/May/2024:
9:30am - 10:15am

Session Chair: Emmanuel Yimfor, Columbia University
Discussant: Ryan Israelsen, Michigan State University
Location: Room 601


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Presentations

Follow the Pipeline: Anticipatory Effects of Proposed Regulations

Joseph Kalmenovitz1, Alejandro Lopez-Lira2, Suzanne Chang3

1University of Rochester; 2University of Florida; 3Tulane University

We provide the first large-sample evidence of substantial anticipatory effects: firms are affected by proposed rules long before those are finalized. We construct a new data set that tracks the timeline of each rule proposal developed by federal agencies since 1995, total of 43,000 proposals. The average proposal spends more than two years in the rulemaking pipeline and only two-thirds convert into a final rule. Training a machine-learning algorithm, we derive a firm-level measure of exposure to the regulatory pipeline: the amount of rule proposals which are relevant to the firm. We find that firms with greater exposure increase overhead costs, reduce capital investments, and report lower profits, independent of their current regulatory burden and political risk. The effects increase with the expected burden of the proposals and when agencies develop rules outside of their core expertise. Calibrating a latent factor model of stock returns with our new firm-specific measure, we identify systematically important regulatory topics such as Securities, Natural Resources, and Environment. Our results are the first to document anticipatory effects based on the entire body of potential federal regulations.


Kalmenovitz-Follow the Pipeline-919.pdf


 
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