Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 13th May 2024, 05:28:45pm EDT

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track T6-1: Treasury Markets, Inflation and Taxes
Time:
Tuesday, 21/May/2024:
8:30am - 9:15am

Session Chair: Marco Grotteria, London Business School
Discussant: Philippe Mueller, Warwick Business School
Location: Room 501


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Presentations

Shrinking the Term Structure

Damir Filipovic1, Markus Pelger2, Ye Ye2

1EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute; 2Stanford University

We propose a new framework to explain the factor structure in the full cross section of Treasury bond returns. Our method unifies non-parametric curve estimation with cross-sectional factor modeling. We identify smoothness as a fundamental principle of the term structure of returns. Our approach implies investable factors, which correspond to the optimal spanning basis functions in decreasing order of smoothness. Our factors explain the slope and curvature shapes frequently encountered in PCA. In a comprehensive empirical study, we show that the first four factors explain the time-series variation and risk premia of the term structure of excess returns. Cash flows are covariances as the exposure of bonds to factors is fully explained by cash flow information. We identify a state-dependent complexity premium. The fourth factor, which captures complex shapes of the term structure premium, substantially reduces pricing errors and pays off during recessions.


Filipovic-Shrinking the Term Structure-836.pdf


 
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