SFS Cavalcade North America 2024
Georgia State University | May 19-22, 2024
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 1st May 2025, 10:05:15am EDT
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Session Overview |
Session | ||
Track M8-3: Disagreement, beliefs and asset prices
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Presentations | ||
End of an era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns Federal Reserve I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period’s exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future.
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