Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

 
 
Session Overview
Session
Track M7-4: The Cross-Section of Stock, Bond and Currency Returns
Time:
Monday, 20/May/2024:
11:30am - 12:15pm

Session Chair: Lars Lochstoer, UCLA
Discussant: Shaojun Zhang, The Ohio State University
Location: Room 601


Presentations

Dollar and Carry Redux

Thomas Andreas Maurer1, Andrea Vedolin2, Sining Liu3, Yaoyuan Zhang1

1The University of Hong Kong; 2Boston University; 3Soochow University

Contrary to existing literature, we establish that two factors, dollar and carry, suffice to explain a large cross-section of currency returns with R2s exceeding 80%. Our paper highlights the importance of accounting for time-variation in conditional moments. Unconditional estimations that ignore this time-variation mistakenly reject the two-factor model. We propose a parsimonious framework to estimate conditional currency factor models and provide testable restrictions. Our findings imply that currency markets are well described by a model in which (i) each country-specific SDF loads on one country-specific—dollar—and one global—carry shock, and (ii) risk loadings are time-varying. Other risk factors proposed in the literature are useful to describe the time variation in dollar and carry factor risk premia.


Maurer-Dollar and Carry Redux-647.pdf