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Track W6-2: Loan Markets: Market Failures and Government Intervention
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Did Pandemic Relief Fraud Inflate House Prices? University of Texas at Austin Pandemic fraud is geographically concentrated and stimulated local purchases with effects on prices, particularly for housing. Fraudulent PPP loan recipients significantly increased their home purchase rate after receiving a loan compared to non-fraudulent PPP recipients, and house prices in high fraud zip codes increased 5.7 percentage points more than in low fraud zip codes within the same county, with similar effects after controlling for other explanations for house price appreciation during COVID. Zip codes with fraud also experience heightened vehicle purchases and consumer spending in 2020 and 2021, with a return to normal in 2022.
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