SFS Cavalcade North America 2024
Georgia State University | May 19-22, 2024
Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 1st May 2025, 10:44:28am EDT
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Session Overview |
Session | ||
Track W7-1: Return Predictability
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Presentations | ||
The Return of Return Dominance: Decomposing the Cross-Section of Prices 1The Wharton School; 2USC Marshall School of Business; 3Bayes Business School What explains cross-sectional dispersion in stock valuation ratios? We find that 75% of dispersion in price-earnings ratios is reflected in differences in future returns, while only 25% is reflected in differences in future earnings growth. This holds at both the portfolio-level and the firm-level. We reconcile these conclusions with previous literature which has found a strong relation between prices and future profitability. Our results support models in which the cross-section of price-earnings ratios is driven mainly by discount rates or mispricing rather than future earnings growth. Evaluating six models of the value premium, we find that most models struggle to match our results, however, models with long-lived differences in risk exposure or gradual learning about parameters perform the best. The lack of earnings growth differences at long horizons provides new evidence in favor of long-run return predictability. We also show a similar dominance of predicted returns for explaining the dispersion in return surprises.
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