Conference Agenda

Session Overview
Session
Track T7-6: Market power, markups and asset prices
Time:
Tuesday, 21/May/2024:
2:45pm - 3:30pm

Session Chair: Erik Loualiche, University of Minnesota
Discussant: Matthieu Gomez, Columbia University
Location: Room 601


Presentations

The Present Value of Future Market Power

Thummim Cho1, Marco Grotteria2, Lukas Kremens3, Howard Kung2

1Korea University Business School, Korea; 2London Business School, UK; 3University of Washington, US

We introduce a novel log-linear identity linking a company's market value to expected future markups, output growth, discount rates, and investments within a present-value framework. By distinguishing between realized and expected markups, we unveil five new empirical facts. (i) Expected markups account for one-third of the rise in aggregate firm values of U.S. public firms since 1980. (ii) The rise in aggregate expected markups is driven by a reallocation of market share towards high-expected-markup firms. Mergers have accelerated this trend with expected (but not realized) markups rising post merger. (iii) Expected markups are closely tied to fixed costs and investments, particularly in intangibles. (iv) There is a negative time-series relationship between expected markups and discount rates, but (v) there is a positive cross-sectional link to risk premia after accounting for other risk factors. These five facts can guide the development of macro-finance models.


Cho-The Present Value of Future Market Power-1392.pdf