Session | ||
Forest Hazards II: Forest Hazards: Forecasting and Mitigating Natural Hazards in and around Forests
Session I will take place on Wednesday, 29 January 2025, from 11:00 am to 12:30 pm in Room A022. | ||
Session Abstract | ||
This session explores innovative approaches to understanding and mitigating environmental hazards affecting forests, forest-adjacent communities, and infrastructure. Topics include wildfire prediction, flood risk, drought impacts, warning systems, and forest damage drivers, showcasing data-driven strategies and modeling techniques for effective hazard identification, risk management, and resilience-building in the face of climate change and natural disasters. | ||
Presentations | ||
An Application For Forecasting Tree-fall Hazard On The Czech Railway Network CDV - Transport Research Centre, Czech Republic Traffic on the Czech rail network is often interrupted by falling trees as 30 % of the rail network is closer than 50 m to forests. Tree falls on railway tracks and overhead power lines cause considerable damage. In order to help the national rail infrastructure administrator (Správa železnic, SZ) deal with these incidents, a web-map application called Stromynazeleznici (i.e., trees on railway tracks) has been developed. It provides a forecast of tree-fall hazard on a 3-hour basis for the following two days. The model incorporates data from weather forecasts (Aladin model) and a tree-fall susceptibility layer which delimits the locations where falling trees are capable of crossing railway tracks. The tree-fall susceptibility layer is prepared from the raster of a normalized digital surface model. One-meter cells contain information about the absolute height of the surface above the relief model. All non-vegetated areas (all types of buildings, tall objects, bridges, masts, etc.) and areas with low vegetation that do not pose a hazard are filtered out. Impact zone buffers are defined for the remaining vegetation areas according to the actual height of the vegetation. The final output is a proportion of the length of railway lines per unit section which are threatened by falling trees. Stromynazeleznici contains tree fall evidence for recording, presenting, and exporting incidents. Data can be entered either via a web form or through a mobile application for the Android system. The forecast is based on a regression model programmed in R (server solution Project R). A multivariate logistic regression was chosen as the most suitable approach to construct the model according to cross-validation results and practical requirements. The following meteorological elements and characteristics of the rail infrastructure surroundings were selected as explanatory variables in the logistic regression: maximum daily wind gust, soil saturation index, snow index, the occurrence of thunderstorms, the season, the range of altitudes in the vicinity of the rail track, the median height of trees along the railway tracks, and the length of the rail track section with trees along the rail track. Meteorological data are sent four times a day via an SFTP server by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The hazard level of tree falls is calculated for the "hectolines" (i.e., 100-meter segments) of the railway track. These are then aggregated into three levels of administrative units defined by SZ. The hazard level is calculated for three-hour intervals, covering a 45-hour forecast period – resulting in 15 time slots for each hectoline. The forecast is updated four times a day as new meteorological data become available. The data is stored in a database and presented in the form of graphs, tables, and an interactive map. The tree-fall hazard level is represented by a five-level colour scale for individual administrative units. When zooming in, the risk is shown in relation to the hectolines. A timeline is located at the bottom of the screen, allowing users to switch between different time slots or aggregated time windows. Visualization of a Database of Road and Rail Blockages in Czechia Caused by Natural Hazards CDV - Transport Research Centre, Czech Republic Transportation network is a vital part of moder-day society. It allows for the mobility of people and goods across large distances. When natural disasters hit transportation networks the results are often a number of closed parts. As a results, certain roads or rail tracks may be even destroyed, but the majority of them are usually only closed for traffic and can be reopened after a relatively short period of time. Functioning transportation network is among the primary environments securing economic growth. Therefore, its robustness and resilience have to be maintained. Data about these incidents which can affect the transportation network performance is important for designing relevant security measures. CDV stores this data from all these sources for further analyses in order to study and evaluate the impacts of natural processes on transportation infrastructure. For this purpose, we created a spatial database which includes data for roads as of 1997 and railways (as of 2002). The spatial database, called RUPOK, is automatically updated. For road network, the majority of complete road blockages were caused by fallen trees (64%), followed by snowing (31%). Flooding and landsliding (including rockfalls) caused 4% incident (1% respectively), but with considerable higher impacts on infrastructure. Improved Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment by Monitoring Large Wood Transport 1Geomorphology, Natural Hazards and Risks Research Unit, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; 2Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geoscience and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; 3School of Sustainability, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK; 4Geomodels Institute, Department of Dynamics of Earth and Ocean, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain Floods are one of the most relevant natural hazards Worldwide and in Switzerland, causing significant socio-economic damage every year. Despite the recent progress in assessing flood hazards and risks, predicting rivers' responses to flooding and anticipating their consequences remains challenging. This is particularly true in forested mountain rivers, where floods are much more than extreme discharges, as they trigger geomorphological changes, such as bank erosion and channel widening, leading to significant sediment erosion and transport while recruiting and mobilizing trees and large pieces of wood. However, flood hazard and risk analysis rarely quantify or fully consider these cascade processes. The presence and number of bridge piers, their shape and the channel energy (in terms of stream power) were particularly important for identifying bridges prone to trapping large wood. |