Conference Agenda

Advancements in web development enable the transfer of large amounts of data via the web, making it feasible to integrate insights gained from flood modelling into early-warning systems and even near real-time applications. The proposed web tool leverages hydrological forecasts, such as those issued by the Federal Office for the Environment in Switzerland (FOEN 2024), to map predicted floods. It offers an interactive map that visualizes potential flooding areas based on different members of a probabilistic forecast, enabling users to explore a range of flood scenarios.

The key features displayed include flood depths, temporal information, hazard classes indicating flood severity for human life and infrastructure, and estimations of potential damage, including the number of potentially exposed buildings, population, and workplaces. This comprehensive visualization enhances awareness and understanding of anticipated flood events for target users, such as emergency responders, governmental authorities, and insurance companies.

The tool facilitates proactive decision-making by providing near-real-time information on probable flood threats, thereby supporting early warning and strategic planning in flood risk management. It utilizes GeoServer as an interface to transfer requested flood information from a PostgreSQL database, where results from precomputed flood scenarios are stored, directly to the client side.

Developed using insights from Mosimann et al. (2023) and Mosimann et al. (2024), this tool also addresses the challenges of providing probabilistic flood hazard and impact information. It serves as a proof of concept for implementing the surrogate flood model approach in near-real-time flood warning systems and illustrates the potential for forecasting systems to meet the diverse needs of stakeholders. For example, insurance companies might focus on potential damages to plan resource allocation, while emergency responders prioritize information on population and the areas likely to experience severe flood intensities.

Publication bibliography

FOEN (2024): Forecasts and flood alerts. Stations with forecasts. Federal Office for the Environment FOEN. Available online at https://www.hydrodaten.admin.ch/en/messstationen-vorhersage, checked on 8/28/2024.

Mosimann, Markus; Kauzlaric, Martina; Schick, Simon; Martius, Olivia; Zischg, Andreas Paul (2023): Evaluation of surrogate flood models for the use in impact-based flood warning systems at national scale. In Environmental Modelling & Software, p. 105936. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105936.

Mosimann, Markus; Martius, Olivia; Zischg, Andreas Paul (2024): Two Sides of the Same Coin? Hydrometeorological Uncertainties in Impact-Based Flood Warning Systems and Climate Change Sensitivity of Floodplains. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4893831.

This presentation will explore the development and implementation of Germany's Naturgefahrenportal (NGP), a centralized platform providing the general public with authoritative information on natural hazards. The NGP aims to consolidate various sources of hazard-related data into a single accessible platform, enhancing public understanding and disaster response.

Designed for clarity and ease of use, the NGP offers real-time warnings and guidance on preventive measures and emergency actions. It serves as an introductory resource, linking to regional or single-hazard portals for deeper insights, and does not compete with existing warning apps, as it does not provide active alert features, such as push notifications.

Key Aspects of the Presentation:

1. Challenges in Standardizing Data: A significant challenge in developing the NGP is the standardization of data sourced from various stakeholders. The presentation will delve into the strategies employed to harmonize these diverse data sets. This standardization is vital for presenting a unified and coherent picture of risks, which facilitates quicker and more effective public response.
2. Harmonization of Maps: The presentation will also address the efforts to harmonize map data, a critical component of the NGP. Different institutions often use varying map scales, symbols, and legends, leading to potential confusion among users. By standardizing these elements, the NGP ensures that risk information is presented clearly and consistently. This harmonization is essential for providing users with an intuitive and accurate understanding of geographic risks, thus enabling more informed decision-making.
3. Incorporation of Socio-Economic Research: A key innovation of the NGP is the integration of the latest socio-economic research to enhance public comprehension of natural hazards. The presentation will discuss how insights from socio-economic studies are being applied to tailor the portal’s communication strategies to the diverse needs of the population. By understanding how different demographic groups perceive risk and respond to warnings, the NGP can present information in a manner that maximizes its effectiveness, ultimately leading to better public preparedness and response.

Added Value and Impact:

The integration of all relevant information into a single, unified platform significantly enhances the value of the data provided, offering a holistic view rather than isolated fragments of information.

The NGP represents a major step forward in the communication of natural hazards in Germany. By addressing the challenges of data standardization, map harmonization, and the incorporation of socio-economic research, the NGP sets a new benchmark for how risk and threat information is conveyed to the public. With its barrier-free design, it is a valuable resource for users with various impairments or disabilities, while recognizing that individual needs may vary. This presentation will offer useful insights into the processes and strategies behind the development of this key public resource, illustrating how it can serve as a model for effective public communication in disaster preparedness and response.

In conclusion, the NGP is more than just a portal—it is a critical instrument for enhancing public safety and resilience.

Traditionally, most natural hazard warnings are verified based on whether they exceeded the predefined physical threshold, or resulted in the expected impact, in a specific region during the respective time period. If these boxes can be ticked, the warning is generally considered a “hit” - the job is done. In recent years, however, initiatives such as the ‘Early Warnings for All (EW4A)’ and the ‘HIWeather Project’ by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have shifted the focus towards the “last mile of the warning value chain”, calling to involve the recipients in the warnings production process. Thus, a natural hazard warning is only a real “hit” if it helps recipients make informed decisions to protect themselves and minimize the damage caused by the hazard. Furthermore, only if the hazard warning levels and thresholds match the perception of the recipients will the warnings have the desired effect and prevent reduced risk perception and negligence of the necessary measures. To this end, the recipients must be given a voice in
the warning verification, completing the traditional verification with a “social verification”.

For this purpose, MeteoSwiss has launched an on-going pilot project in 2022 to survey the affected population in the warning area directly after a natural hazard using so-called flash-polls, following the example of other European weather services (e.g., UK Met Office and KNMI). Specifically, people in the affected area are asked whether they received, understood and acted upon the hazard warning, and whether they found the warning useful and helpful in assessing the risk and deciding what action to take. Finally, they are asked whether they consider the warning level to be appropriate given the impact and intensity of the natural hazard event, which serves as a social verification. Taken together, this information provides valuable insights into people's risk perception and behavior and can indicate opportunities for improvement in the current warning process.

The presentation will introduce the preliminary findings of the ongoing pilot project and the flash-polls conducted to date, including insights on the perception of natural hazards by the population and the social verification of the warnings, as well as indications of possible further improvements of the warning system at MeteoSwiss. Finally, the main challenges and limitations of the pilot project will be discussed and an outlook will be given on how the social verification will be continued after the pilot project is completed.

From an end-to-end perspective, distribution is integral to achieving a high reach in disseminating natural hazards. Which channels suit this, and what does the trend look like? What needs to be considered to make an app attractive?