Submissions Accepted for Presentation at the World Bank Land Conference 2024

The research investigates the intricate nexus between armed conflict, land markets, and the transformative impacts of peace agreements, centering on the Colombian scenario following the 2016 accord with FARC. A specific focus is on Caquetá, a region historically marred by conflict, where the study delves into the implications of the peace agreement on land transactions. Utilizing economic transaction data from Certificates of Tradition and Freedom (CTF) and conflict information from the Colombian Observatory of Memory and Conflict (CNMH), the analysis categorizes Civil Society Natural Reserves (RNSCs) based on conflict intensity. Applying a Differences in Differences (DiD) methodology, the study discerns a 3.6 percentage point decrease in economic transactions post-2016, reflecting heightened security and a pronounced shift towards sustainable land practices. This reduction in market transactions underscores the tangible and transformative impact of post-conflict stability, allowing rural communities to prioritize land development, conservation, and economic strategies for long-term sustainability and prosperity.

This study explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, we find a more nuanced story. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict.

The role of eradication policies in decreasing drug trade, insecurity, and ultimately fostering development remains largely debated. This paper examines the unintended consequences of aerial fumigation of coca on human capital accumulation and its medium-term socioeconomic impact in Colombia. Employing a spatial regression discontinuity design and utilizing newly digitized data on the exact areas subjected to aerial spraying, we find that eradication increases dropout and failure rates in the short term. A key mechanism is the negative income shock experienced by households. Furthermore, we document that even after the ban on aerial spraying in 2015, villages exposed to eradication exhibit worse socioeconomic outcomes, including lower schooling, higher child labor, increased early marriage, and deteriorating living conditions.