Submissions Accepted for Presentation at the World Bank Land Conference 2024

This paper analyzes the impact of urban land-use changes on farmers’ livelihood around the city of Bahir Dar (Ethiopia). A survey was conducted in three urbanizing villages near Bahir Dar, focusing on 150 farmers who were land-expropriated and 180 farmers who were non-land-expropriated. Regression models and propensity matching scoring are applied to examine the livelihood differences of farmers in terms of farm income, off-farm income, primary expenditure type, and perception of urban expansion benefits to farmers. The results reveal that land expropriation in the area has led to (a) a shift to off-farm income for land expropriated farmers; (b) an increase in their household expenditure on staple foods compared to other expenditure types, including farm inputs; and (c) diverging perceptions on whether and how city expansion benefits farmers in the neighboring villages.

We present an urban model with land tenure insecurity and information asymmetry regarding risks of contested land ownership, a very common issue in sub-Saharan African cities. A market failure emerges as sellers do not internalize the impact of their market participation decision on the average quality of traded plots, which in turn affects other sellers and buyers' decisions. As a result, the equilibrium has too many transactions of insecure plots and too few transactions of secure plots. This market failure can be addressed when agents trade along trusted kinship lines that discourage undisclosed sales of insecure plots. When sellers also have the possibility of registering their property right in a cadastre, this not only further attenuates information asymmetry but also helps reduce risk. Because transactions between kins tend to involve plots that are more secure on average, kinship matching makes registration better targeted at insecure plots traded outside kinship ties.

Fragmented land administration and market distortions stymie affordable housing development, exacerbates informality, hampers economic development, and limits revenues in major Nigerian cities. Several constraints prevent the development of a healthy land market and restrict urban planning practice, limit private-sector investment, and thus hinder sustainable development in major cities. For example, as a result of the deficiencies in the 1978 Land Use Act, the legal framework for land administration, most land claims are insecure and even state-granted titles can be revoked. State and local governments have little information about the location, ownership, or use of specific parcels.

The paper investigates the key land challenges that hinder development in the three largest cities in Nigeria: Lagos, Kano and Ibadan. Based on the analysis, the paper will identify areas of reforms in land management that are necessary to better manage informal growth and foster better planning and development.

Where and how cities grow will influence food production and the risks to food production. We estimate the overlap of future urban expansion in 2040 and 2100 with current crop and livestock production under different climate scenarios. First, we find, that urban areas will expand most into areas with fruits, vegetables, and chickens, and that urban areas will expand most under a scenario with significant challenges to climate change mitigation. Second, the share of food producing areas that will overlap with urban expansion will be largest in Africa, particularly under a scenario of significant challenges to climate change adaptation. Third, across all scenarios, urban expansion is likely to take place in areas with higher crop or livestock production, but even more so when there are significant challenges to both mitigation and adaptation.