Conference Agenda

Session
Poster Session
Time:
Wednesday, 24/Apr/2019:
6:00pm - 8:00pm


Session Abstract

The poster session takes place in the hallways of the main building. We will offer an apéro riche (light dinner and drinks) during the poster session.


Presentations
ID: 440
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: food systems, rural-urban interactions, foodshed analysis, urban sprawl, Africa

Exploring food system transformations in rapidly growing African cities

Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx, Anton Van Rompaey, Constanza Parra

KU Leuven, Belgium

African cities are characterised by rapid growth, often resulting in uncontrolled sprawl. This trend is expected to continue in the coming decades. One of the major challenges for African cities is the issue of food security whereby rural-to-urban and intra-urban food fluxes need to adapt to the new urban configurations. Preliminary research demonstrated that urban sprawl results in significant losses of fertile agricultural land at the fringes of the city while infilling processes pose threats to urban farming practices. This research aims at gaining a deeper insight in the dynamics of urban food systems in an African context whereby Kampala and Cape Town were selected as case-studies.

First, a foodshed analysis for both cities is carried out whereby the spatial extent of the origins of the urban populations’ food provision is explored by combining household interviews and the identification of urban and peri-urban food production spaces through remote sensing. We hypothesise that the foodsheds of members of more deprived socioeconomic groups in the studied cities display a smaller geographical area whilst those of the richer population indicate they have the purchasing power to obtain a more diverse diet from a correspondingly large foodshed. Secondly, conditional probability models that predict food consumption patterns of a specified household at a given location were developed. These models allow to evaluate expected future changes of food consumption patterns under various urban expansion scenarios: (i) sprawling, (ii) infilling and high-rise development and (iii) upgrading of satellite towns. These research steps enable an evaluation of the potential future food fluxes and nutritional security for different socioeconomic groups. In the long term, the further development of this model-based approach should lead to a decision support tool for urban planners and policy makers in Africa.



ID: 873
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: biofuels, cropland expansion, U.S. land use, modeling, environmental impacts

Impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard on America’s land and water resources -- Linking policy, economics, and environmental models with observations of land use change

Tyler J Lark1, Nathan Hendricks2, Nicholas Pates2, Aaron Smith3, Eric Booth1, Chris Kucharik1, Matthew Bougie1, Seth Spawn1, Yanhua Xie1, Holly K Gibbs1

1University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States of America; 2Kansas State University; 3University of California-Davis

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been implicated as an agent of influence in agricultural commodity markets and as a driver of land use and land management changes. However, direct attribution of these effects to the RFS has remained elusive and uncertain, a shortcoming that has hindered policy evaluation and potential reform. We analyze the effects of the RFS on corn, soy, and wheat prices and integrate these results with (i) an econometric model of land use response, (ii) spatially explicit observations of land use change, and (iii) additional models of agro-ecological processes, carbon emissions, and watershed hydrology to quantify the total land and water impacts of the RFS policy implementation. We independently model the effects of the policy via two pathways—crop intensification, or the preferential planting of corn instead of other crops, and cropland extensification, or the conversion of grasslands and other natural lands to cropland. We find that in the 8 years following passage of the RFS in 2007, the policy bolstered the amount of corn planted on existing cropland each year by an average of over 5 million acres. During the same time period, over 10 million acres of uncultivated land were converted to crop production in the U.S., of which nearly 3 million may be directly attributable to the RFS. These landscape changes resulted in more than a million tons of additional nitrogen application as well as novel carbon emissions on the order of 10 TgC yr-1. Our study is the first to assess in a spatially explicit manner the RFS impacts on total U.S. land use change and also to quantify associated field-level water quality and carbon effects. The approach provides a blueprint for the integration of comprehensive land change data with causal economic models and demonstrates a novel method for measuring environmental outcomes across an entire agricultural industry, from the policymaking process through to implementation on the landscape.



ID: 598
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: methane, livestock, land use

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian red meat industry

Dianne Mayberry1, Harriet Bartlett1,2, Jonathan Moss3, Stephen Wiedemann4, Thomas Davison3, Mario Herrero1

1CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Australia; 2University of Cambridge, Departments of Zoology and Veterinary Medicine; 3University of New England; 4Integrity Ag & Environment

The red meat industry is an important contributor to the Australian national economy and international markets. Beef, sheep and goat meat are produced largely in extensive grazing systems, with some finishing of animals in feedlots. In line with the commitments under the Paris Agreement, Australia has pledged to reducing national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26-28% of 2005 levels by 2030, and reductions in emissions from agriculture, including the red meat sector, will be key to achieving this target.

Here we evaluate options for the Australian red meat industry to reduce GHG emissions. We start by compiling baseline numbers for 2005, and compare these to the 2015 national GHG inventory. We include emissions from beef cattle (25 million), sheep (70 million) and goat (0.5 million) grazing systems, feedlots, transport and meat processing. We then examine a series of pathways for different mitigation practices based on sources of emissions and the most feasible options for reducing or offsetting emissions. The pathways focus on livestock and land management practices to increase the efficiency of beef production and reduce emissions from enteric methane, wildfires and deforestation.

Our research demonstrates that with appropriate investment and policy support it is possible for the Australian red meat industry to substantially reduce GHG emissions. Emissions from red meat have already decreased from 124.1 Mt CO2e (21% total national emissions) in 2005 to 68.6 Mt CO2e (13% total national emissions) in 2015, primarily through reductions in land clearing. Further reductions in emissions are possible with continued improvements in vegetation and fire management combined with application of technologies to reduce enteric methane emissions from livestock, particularly grazing animals. Sequestration of carbon through strategic reforestation and afforestation can be used to offset remaining emissions, further reducing the industry’s GHG footprint.



ID: 699
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: protected areas, leakage, tropical forest

Protected area leakage in tropical forests

Scott Alan Ford

University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Protected areas are a cornerstone of global efforts to conserve biodiversity and natural resources. International conservation agreements such as the Convention on Biological Diversity have stated ambitious goals to increase the global coverage of protected areas. Thus, the protected area network is likely to expand. The impacts of creating or expanding protected areas, however, can cause unforeseen impacts in surrounding landscapes. One such phenomenon is leakage. Leakage occurs when activities such as deforestation are displaced from within protected areas, to sites just beyond the administrative boundaries. The increased isolation of protected areas caused by leakage patterns can undermine the effectiveness of conservation efforts, if lifeforms within the protected area become restricted in their abilities to disperse. Patterns of leakage have been observed in Peru and East Africa; however, the global prevalence of leakage remains poorly documented. This study attempts to identify patterns of leakage in tropical forests throughout the world. We compared rates of deforestation between protected areas, protected area buffer zones, and control areas. Control areas were established using propensity score matching to account for bias created by the non-random distribution of protected areas. Leakage patterns were defined as significantly higher rates of deforestation in buffer zones compared to protected areas and controls. We expect patterns of leakage to broadly correlate with regional policies governing protected areas. By identifying patterns of leakage throughout the tropical forest zone, we will be better able to assess the drivers of leakage and inform the process of protected area establishment and management in these high priority conservation areas.



ID: 784
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: remote sensing, agroforestry, ecosystem services

Trees outside forests: using remote sensing to understand ecological and social landscape change in Africa

Samuel Harrison

University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Agroforestry, the incorporation of trees into agricultural systems, is common throughout the tropics, supporting close to 1 billion people. Agroforests exit as a wide range of systems including home farms, intercrops, community woodlots and formal plantations. They provide critical ecosystem services, both locally through fuelwood provision and non-timber forest products, improvements in soil quality, reduced erosion and buffering climate extremes, as well as globally through the sequestration of carbon and maintaining of biodiversity. As such, agroforestry is commonly promoted by land managers and development organisations for it economic, environmental and social benefits. Good understanding of the changes in the landscape dynamics of agroforestry systems is currently limited in its consistency and timeliness. The spatial extent of agroforestry, how it is spreading, growth rates, contribution to landscape connectivity and harvesting information are all crucial information to understand the ecological changes underway. Furthermore, the changes in the ways people live with, cultivate and rely on these mosaic landscapes is even more poorly understood. New satellites from the ESA’s Copernicus programme and advances in radar remote sensing can be used to measure and monitor biophysical parameters of the landscape. Recent applications of remote sensing have also shown that Earth observation data can be used to measure socioeconomic indicators. As such, applying these technologies to agroforestry landscapes will fill the existing gap in our understanding of these critical landscapes. The World Agroforestry Centre’s (ICRAF) Sentinel landscapes offer the ideal sites for testing these monitoring techniques. Sentinel landscapes are areas which span landscapes bound by common issues, where a range of biophysical, social and economic data are collected, long-term, with consistent methods. The project aims to (1) Define the best approaches for monitoring agroforestry landscapes; (2) Determine the most appropriate combination of ground data and satellite data to produce relevant and useful information to land managers in these landscapes; and (3) Conclude whether remote sensing can be used to understand ecological and social changes in these mosaic landscapes.



ID: 263
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: machine learning, Mediterranean, land use, land cover

A homogeneous database at mediterranean basin scale and a machine Learning analysis to understand the potential representativeness of variables

Michel Mouléry1, Claude Napoléone1,2, Davide Martinetti2, Esther Sanz Sanz1,2

1INRA Ecodeveloppement, Avignon, France; 2INRA BIOSP - biostatistique et processus spatiaux, Avignon, France

The Mediterranean region is a biome of specific richness of world importance (Underwood et al., 2009), where population is constantly growing (from 446 millions in 2000 to 570 millions in 2025 – geoconfluences, 2014), urban development increases, while only 14 % of the region can be devoted to agriculture and food production (118 millions of hectares – Zdruli, 2014). Hence the need for a fine and detailed knowledge of the spatial issues at stake. Nonetheless, land use and land cover databases produced by each Mediterranean country are often heterogeneous with respect to the spatial scale, resolution or the methodology of construction.

In the framework of two research projects (Arimnet/Divercrop1 and Labex OtMed/LasetMed2), we built a high-resolution spatial database (8-10 km) representing, between 2005 and 2015, detailed topography (altitude and slope), land cover (urban, natural vegetation, forest, crops, bare soils, etc.), bioclimatic variables (temperatures, precipitation, hygrometry, etc.) and socio-economic variables (population, agricultural practices, etc.). Besides the simple visualization of the variables and their spatial relationships, the constructed database allows to develop original research analysis at the scale of the Mediterranean basin, about, for example, food security, land systems or the relation between biodiversity and agricultural practices.

Our poster aims at presenting the structure of the database, as well as its interest in applied research by showing the results obtained within different international research programs. By way of example, we also present the results of a machine learning analysis that allow identifying a set of relevant features that help explaining wheat production. The objective is to share our knowledge and data, confident that they will attract a great share of the participants of the 4th open science meeting 2019.



ID: 470
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: lifestyle, dietary patterns, land use, telecoupling

Observing shifts in telecouplings driven by dietary patterns in developed countries.

Perrine Laroche1, Catharina Schulp1, Thomas Kastner2, Peter Verburg1, Finn Mempel3

1Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; 2Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; 3Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, UAB, Barcelona, Spain

Influenced by concerns towards the environment, individual health or animal welfare, low-meat diets have emerged and spread in developed countries over the last decades and are expected to spread further among the population. Global studies demonstrate the potential of low-meat diets to reduce the pressure on environmental resources, comparing the amount of water, land, and CO2 emissions embodied in vegetal versus animal-based products. From a health perspective, scientists worldwide point out that low-meat diets should include an enhanced portion of vegetal sources that provide essential nutrients, otherwise derived from the consumption of animal-based products. Human-environment systems are substantially and increasingly connected over distances. Trade of food products contributes largely to these connections, driven not only by caloric needs but also by dietary preferences, such as low-meat diets. While reducing environmental pressures is a motivation for dietary change, it is not clear if shifts towards low-meat diets indeed result in reduced environmental pressures at the most vulnerable locations globally, or if they increase the burden. Based on data on daily consumption in developed countries, we identify the key food items that differentiate meat-rich diets from low-meat or no-meat diets (e.g. vegan). Then, we use trade-based data to geographically source these key food items and observe the telecoupling systems related to meat-rich, and low-meat diets. Using agricultural production data, we calculate land use requirements in the source countries to meet the demand from developed countries for food items involved in low-meat diets. Finally, we explore the impact of potential future diet changes on land telecouplings. Using fine scale data about food consumption, this study spotlights poorly known impacts of dietary change on land use. In a broader perspective, these findings question the legitimacy of distal sourcing of the preferred diets of developed countries.



ID: 352
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Cattle ranching, law-enforcement, Brazilian Amazon, Pasture Restoration, Land Sparing

Environmental law-enforcement increases cattle productivity in the Western Brazilian Amazon but bears the risk of a social divide

Johannes Schielein1, Jan Börner2, Judson Ferreira Valentim3

1Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung, Germany; 2Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Germany; 3Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa), Brazil

Reducing deforestation in tropical forest areas requires effective environmental governance and the transformation of agricultural systems towards less land-demanding production forms. Our study investigates the influence of environmental law-enforcement on land-use decisions of cattle ranchers in the western Brazilian Amazon between 2005-2014. We use a survey-based choice-model to estimate the effect of law-enforcement on the likelihood of ranchers to engage in intensification of cattle production systems on land already under use through means of pasture restoration. We found that increased law-enforcement was a fundamental driver of restoration-efforts which were associated with a higher risk-awareness about the costs of illegal deforestation. Furthermore, farmers who restored pastures also lowered deforestation rates subsequently. However, restoration efforts are more prevalent amongst well-endowed large farms than small-scale family agriculture which could lead to undesirable social consequences and decreased policy effectiveness in the future. Potential socio-economic safe-guards, such as agricultural credits and technical assistance, had mixed effects to promote restoration for a wider audience and need to improve their design and targeting to guarantee socio-economic and environmental sustainability in the region. Our findings are important to support policies aiming at reconciling the forces of growing global and regional socioeconomic drivers towards increasing food production, while improving the wellbeing of the rural population and assuring environmental conservation in the Brazilian Amazon. Additionally, our results are important for other regions, since cattle is a key economic asset for vulnerable farmers and an important determinant of land use change throughout the tropics.



ID: 712
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Agriculture, Yields, Investments, Policy

Evaluation of public and private agriculture research and development expenditure and associated crop yield trends

Gurneet Kaur Braich, Navin Ramankutty

University of British Columbia, Canada

Food security in the future will face multiple pressures including continued population growth, dietary shifts, and climate change. Even as we contemplate these future burdens there have been several global studies indicating crop yield stagnation. Investment in research has been shown to be a primary driver of productivity growth in agriculture, however public spending in agriculture research and development (R&D) in high-income countries has fallen in real terms since the 1980s. Private agriculture R&D has increased dramatically in the last twenty years, but this is limited to a few high value crops. As two major food producers with comparable public and private agriculture research funding, we have examined research expenditure in relation to yield trends of private and publicly funded crops in Canada and the USA. Using data from agricultural census observations across 600 agriculture districts in Canada and the US over the period 1990-2010, we have examined the trends in yields of 15 key crops. These 15 include crops developed through private investment (soybeans, canola, potatoes and maize), as well as crops developed through public funding (alfalfa, hay, wheat, pulses). Although yields continue to increase in some areas in the US, we find that across 40-80% of major crop-growing areas in Canada and the US, yields have either never improved, stagnated or collapsed, particularly in crops supported through public R&D funding. These results underscore the need for adequate public funding to meet growing global demand and increased production pressures. More targeted investments in underperforming areas and crops as well as strategies to continue increase yields in the high-performing areas, are required. As these two countries produce approximately 15% of all global food exports, the importance of maintaining and improving crop productivity cannot be overstated.



ID: 717
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: desertification, underground water, human activities, scenario analysis, Hami

Desertification process and its future scenario simulation of Hami basin in Xinjiang in the past 50 years

Zanxu Chen, Shaoliang Zhang, Huping Hou, Yongjun Yang

School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, People's Republic of China

Desertification is the most prominent problem in arid and semi-arid areas of western China, it is essential to understand its driving forces and propose mitigation strategies. Taking a typical oasis group nourished by ground water in desert area, Hami, a city in Xinjiang, as an example, combining the soil properties with hydrogeological characteristics, this paper discusses the characteristics of drought and human activities by utilizing the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), population and socio-economic data. This study is also aimed to systematically reveal the driving effects of nature forces and human activities in the development of desertification. Further, we construct an analysis framework to evaluate land desertification in desert oasis. On this basis, based on four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios, including “global orchestration, order from strength, techno garden and adapting mosaic”, we simulate and analyze the future trend of Hami desertification. The results show that: 1) It can be observed that Hami drought is getting more wetting, compared to the drying condition before. Frequent human activities, such as urban groundwater extraction and mining damage to groundwater systems, have changed the allocation of water resources, resulting in an imbalance Oasis-Desert Water resources supply and demand system. Also, the phenomenon of desertification has intensified. 2) If we do nothing in the existing pattern of mining development and urbanization, the future desertification trend can not be alleviated. The area of desertification may be reduced but the condition of which will become increasingly serious. And, better results can be achieve in the two proactive scenarios of techno garden and adapting mosaic. Therefore, strengthening groundwater management and reducing mining activities are the main ways to curb desertification in Hami, Xinjiang.



ID: 722
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Urban green space, human well-being, Big Data, Machine learning

Using user generated data and interviews to analyze the use of urban green space by people in different cultures.

Mahsa Bazrafshan, Felix Kienast

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL.

The analysis of interactions between people and the environment has grown considerably through the application of computer algorithms and large amounts of data and allows an insight into the appropriation of space by people. The search for a connection between social and spatial data is already underway in urban planning. This research seeks to explore the information content of big data and is considered a borderline approach to understand how social and spatial data are used in planning for green infrastructure. This study also aims to identify the risk of using big data in the analysis of human well-being. We consider the user's experience for "quality of life" as a variable. Could a machine decide on people's perception and define a sophisticated and culturally relevant indicator for future design? By finding a way to apply qualitative data in quantitative methods, this study wanted to understand how people perceive urban green spaces. Urban green spaces include both traditional parks and contemporary urban green spaces. Using a series of data, we present a list of early indicators for understanding the well-being of urban residents.



ID: 702
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: multifunctional landscape, protected areas, conservation, environmental governance.

Can multifunctional landscapes become effective conservation strategies? Challenges and opportunities from a Mexican case study

Julia Ros-Cuellar1, Luciana Porter-Bolland2, Martha Bonilla-Moheno3

1University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg; 2Instituto de Ecologia, A.C., Mexico; 3Instituto de Ecologia, A.C., Mexico

Around the world, Protected Areas (PA) are the main strategy for nature conservation. However, it is recognized that PA are not always efficient for ecological conservation nor for social wellbeing. A possible alternative in human dominated landscapes that hold high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services, is the strengthening of environmental governance in regions as Multifunctional Landscapes (ML), giving way to the coexistence of multiple objectives of conservation and resources use. Using the activity system framework, we analyzed if the concept of ML was an operative alternative to PA in an area of interest for conservation in Veracruz, Mexico. Activity systems refer to the productive strategies in a given context that result from the mobilization of resources, and which joined to environmental governance shape the landscape and determine its multifunctionality. To understand the strengths and weaknesses of our case study as a ML, we: 1) delimitated the landscape according to local interest for conservation; and, 2) analyzed the role of stakeholders in shaping the landscape. The region delimited by local stakeholders as having conservation value included all areas considered to be wildlife reservoirs and water provisioning zones. The existence of local conservation areas established by landowners, combined with shaded-coffee agroforestry, the most extended activity, made the region possible likely to represent a ML. Although local conservation initiatives are perceived as more legitimate than top-down approaches, agreements amongst stakeholders need to improve to strengthen environmental governance. In contexts of strong environmental governance and landowner’s participation, the coexistence of productive activities and nature conservation makes ML a more effective conservation strategy than PA.



ID: 490
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: land cover, global, operational service, cover layers, user flexibility

Copernicus Dynamic Global Land Cover layer at 100m resolution with 20m hotspots

Ruben Van De Kerchove1, Marcel Buchhorn1, Martin Herold2, Nandin Tsendbazar2, Dainius Masiliunas2, Jan Verbesselt2, Steffen Fritz3, Myroslava Lesiv3, Bruno Smets1

1VITO, Belgium; 2University of Wageningen, the Netherlands; 3International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

The Copernicus Global Land Service is the component of the European Copernicus service which ensures a global systematic monitoring of the Earth’s land surface. It provides bio-geophysical variables in near real time describing the daily state, and changes in state, of vegetation and land surface processes. Recently, it has released its first dynamic global land cover layer over Africa at 100m spatial resolution for the year 2015 with an overall accuracy of 74.6 +/- 2.1%.

The product complements several global land cover ‘epoch’ datasets which have been created at medium (and high) spatial resolution during the last decade by providing a yearly dynamic land cover layer at moderate resolution in combination with four continuous cover layers (forest, shrub, bare and grassland). Static land cover maps are often hard to use in different applications. A wide range of user groups need more elastic land cover mapping approaches to guarantee high quality products that can be tailored to the needs of their application. This land cover map in combination with the continuous cover layer provides such flexibility to users

A second release of this Copernicus Dynamic Global Land Cover map at 100m resolution is in preparation and will cover all continents across the globe, integrate dynamic change maps, provide an even higher accuracy over Africa compared to its first release, and last but not least provide consistent 20m detailed maps on several hotspots with large heterogeneity in the landscape. The user flexibility and consistency across the spatial resolutions of these new novel land cover maps will be presented.



ID: 562
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: governance, telecoupling, China

Governance induces telecoupling: The case of the Belt and Road Initiative

Johanna Coenen, Jens Newig

Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Germany

This paper addresses the question how governance in both sending and receiving systems induces telecoupling. While previous research has implicitly shown how policy changes in one system enable telecoupling, there is little understanding of how governance arrangements in various interacting telecoupled systems and at different levels of governance induce telecoupled land use changes.

In 2013, the Chinese government announced to revive and expand the ancient Silk Road trade routes in order to improve the physical connectivity between Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe. The aim of the so-called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is to enhance international cooperation and economic integration among the 65 countries involved. The BRI is expected to create win-win outcomes by helping China to deal with its industrial overcapacity and rising demand for energy and natural resources, while also fostering economic development in the countries along the BRI. However, it has been criticized that the initiative creates new environmental risks across the entire Eurasian continent, especially in countries with high environmental vulnerabilities and limited governance capacities. The BRI will likely drive telecoupled land use change with potentially high environmental and social impacts. It is a clear example of how the political and economic drivers of land use change are geographically remote from the local impacts.

By using empirical examples from countries along the BRI, the paper demonstrates that the political drivers of telecoupling are not confined to the Chinese policy initiative, but also largely depend on the governance arrangements in countries along the route of the BRI. The purpose is to anticipate local land use changes in context of the BRI as well as identify potential governance options for addressing expected and unexpected unsustainable impacts of telecoupling early on.



ID: 887
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Urban green infrastructure, Cultural ecosystem services, Tree cover, Tree diversity, Use of green spaces

The influence of vegetation on the use of ecosystem services in urban green infrastructure – Examples from Leipzig, Germany

Julia Palliwoda, Wilhelmine Krieger, Joerg Priess

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Germany

An increasing number of people are living in urban areas and therefore depend on urban ecosystems and their services such as urban parks for climate regulation and recreational uses. With increasing urbanization the share of open and green areas is often is often negatively affected. Thus, the quality of these urban green spaces becomes important to provide diverse ecosystem services (ES) to a diverse population. However, there is not enough knowledge about influencing factors such as green parameters like tree cover, tree diversity and flowering species on the actual use of cultural ES, which are particularly important for urban areas. In this study, we investigated the use of cultural ES in two types of urban green infrastructure, namely parks and brownfields (unmanaged open sites) with low, medium and high tree cover respectively (6 groups). We determined tree and flowering diversity in our study sites (n=36) in central Leipzig and used a smartphone app based questionnaire to find out how often and why people use certain ES in which sites at different times at the day. Results indicate that sites with medium dense tree cover have a high diversity in woody and flowering herbal vegetation. Tree cover seems to be an important factor for ES use in both, urban parks and brownfields. Brownfields were used more intensively the fewer trees and the more flowering herbal species they contain. In urban parks we found different dominating groups of ES within the three tree cover classes. Our findings provide supposedly guiding relations between green elements and the quality of cultural ES provision and actual use such as aesthetical, recreational and nature related experiences. These are important for future resilient urban green space planning and management.



ID: 532
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: agricultural typology, local drivers, decision-making, ABM, SECLAND

Defining agricultural landscape typologies using natural and social factors in northern mid-latitude catchments

Bano Mehdi, Veronika Gaube

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Austria

For modelling studies, classifying agricultural landscapes into distinct types is necessary to simplify the land use. This is particularly relevant when ABMs requiring driving factors are applied to the catchment because the drivers of crop land use change are region-specific and scale-dependant and are influenced by the composition of social demographics and governance, as well as the climate, the geography, and the availability of resources (monetary or natural). The interplay of these myriad factors causes the drivers to be complex, as a result the drivers tend be site-specific and it remains uncertain if they can be transferred to similar regions. We set out to determine if an ABM can be effectively applied to a given agricultural landscape typology, regardless if the landscape is located in different regions of the world.

As a first step, the agricultural landscape typologies in regions with similar climate, growing season conditions and availability of resources (located between 44 and 48oN) were defined. Catchments in Quebec, in Bavaria and in Lower Austria were classified by collecting several local datasets based on natural and social indicators. For example, the bio-physical indicators such as crops, slope, soil, land use intensity (inputs), field size, as well as social indicators such as farm income factors, tillage intensity, farmer age and access to subsidies are considered to define one, or several, explicit agricultural landscape typologies in these developed mid-latitude catchments.

In a second step, farmer influencing factors for the agricultural landscape typologies were identified through administering a farmer questionnaire in each catchment to gather information on decision-making factors for farmers to grow certain crops, or to change their crops. A statistical analysis and comparison of the drivers in each agricultural typology determined similarities and emerging patterns of change.

These drivers of land use change will be used to update an ABM called SECLAND that was initially used to determine interaction processes between socio-economic and natural components of the integrated land systems in a mixed agricultural region in Austria. An agent-based actor module is part of SECLAND that was used to also simulate decisions of farmers. The ABM will be modified with the updated farmer influencing factors for the agricultural landscape typologies. The ABM will then be applied to the same crop landscape typologies in the two other catchments for an evaluation of its performance.



ID: 545
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: strategic spatial planning, planning intentions, spatial metrics, urban land change, Zurich

Transformative potential of strategic spatial planning – the case of Zurich, Switzerland

Franziska Birgit Schmid

Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Switzerland

Since the second half of the past century, communal land use planning, which is well established in Switzerland, has been increasingly regarded as insufficient to ensure a sustainable and well-ordered spatial development, without incorporating a regional and supra-regional perspective. Strategic spatial planning was supposed to improve this dissatisfactory situation. Even though strategic spatial planning often remains rather abstract, the question arises whether it has an influence on the development of the urban fabric. Thus today, several decades after the implementation of the first strategic spatial plans, a critical analysis of the impact of strategic spatial planning is required, addressing the following questions: What kind of effects has this planning instrument unfolded? Have the strategic spatial plans been transformative or have they worked in a more responsive way by reproducing local developments? Which conclusions can be drawn from the past for strategic spatial planning in the future? This study pursues these questions by focusing on the case of the Canton of Zurich. In order to assess the effect, strategic planning intentions of the cantonal structure plan (derived through document analysis) are compared to regional patterns in the development of communal land use planning (as determined through a zoning-change analysis). Furthermore the actual changes of urban spatial configurations are measured with spatial metrics and compared with the intentions of local land use planning as well as strategic spatial planning. The study is expected to thereby contribute to a better understanding of strategic spatial planning as a political driving force of urban land change.



ID: 617
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: sdi, inde, spatial data infrastructure, brazil, data, lucc, land use

Analysis of Brazilian land use and cover data availability through the Federal Government Spatial Data Infrastructure (INDE)

Andre Augusto Gavlak1, Talita Oliveira Assis2

1Sao Paulo University, Brazil (USP); 2Brazilian National Institute for Space Research, Brazil (INPE)

Currently, there are several initiatives in the world for the development of geographic informational policies aimed at sharing and retrieving data and information through Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI). These are infrastructures that aim to create an environment in which all stakeholders can cooperate with each other and interact with technology to achieve optimum scientific and administrative goals. The Brazilian Federal Spatial Data Infrastructure (INDE) was legally established by Presidential Decree No. 6,666 (2008). The Decree defines the roles and attributions of three entities of the federal government defined as INDE organizational and administrative main actors: National Cartography Commission (CONCAR), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Ministry of Planning (MP). Thus, this study aims to identify and analyze the Land Use and Cover data available through the web portal of INDE. An exhaustive search was performed within the portal and the results presented through charts and tables. INDE provides 56 layers of land use and cover data, with an average vintage of 5 years and a standard deviation of 5.2 years, in a scale not greater than 1: 50,000. Regarding coverage, 17.9% are state scale data, 60.7% are municipal/local scale data, 5.4% are regional data, and only 16% covers the entire country. The low amount of data available through the official portal allows us to conclude that a) INDE has not been effective in centralizing Brazilian geospatial land use and cover data, b) researchers and citizens that seek these data should try to find them in other sources, often unofficial ones, contradicting the premises of INDE.

Currently, there are several initiatives in the world for the development of geographic informational policies aimed at sharing and retrieving data and information through Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI). These are infrastructures that aim to create an environment in which all stakeholders can cooperate with each other and interact with technology to achieve optimum scientific and administrative goals. The Brazilian Federal Spatial Data Infrastructure (INDE) was legally established by Presidential Decree No. 6,666 (2008). The Decree defines the roles and attributions of three entities of the federal government defined as INDE organizational and administrative main actors: National Cartography Commission (CONCAR), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Ministry of Planning (MP). Thus, this study aims to identify and analyze the Land Use and Cover data available through the web portal of INDE. An exhaustive search was performed within the portal and the results presented through charts and tables. INDE provides 56 layers of land use and cover data, with an average vintage of 5 years and a standard deviation of 5.2 years, in a scale not greater than 1: 50,000. Regarding coverage, 17.9% are state scale data, 60.7% are municipal/local scale data, 5.4% are regional data, and only 16% covers the entire country. The low amount of data available through the official portal allows us to conclude that a) INDE has not been effective in centralizing Brazilian geospatial land use and cover data, b) researchers and citizens that seek these data should try to find them in other sources, often unofficial ones, contradicting the premises of INDE.



ID: 688
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Land use change, mapping cultivated fields and biophysical indicators

Linking land use and cultural dynamics related to pastoralism in Borana rangeland Southern Ethiopia

Michael Elias Mgalula

Mkwawa University College of Education - Tanzania

Pastoralism is an age long and a dominant type of land use in arid and semi-arid rangelands of the world. Traditionally, pastoralists use and manage their land naturally. However, with increasing cultural dynamics in rangelands, pastoral lands are being transformed due to growing of crop cultivation activity. This work demonstrates how we combined multiple sources of land information to map land use change patterns. The aim was to map the land areas taken for cultivation expansion using global positioning system (GPS) device through ground surveys with agro-pastoralists, information about cropping history through interviews with agro-pastoralist, map layers of specific data and then incorporated into GIS for geo-spatial analysis. The main objective is to track the land areas taken by farmers for cultivation, determinant factors and the implication on pastoralism at an agro-pastoral community of Darito Kebele in Borana rangeland of Ethiopia. Amongst the conditions supporting cultivation expansion is elevation, slope, presence of dry-river valley and soil type. Cultivation expansion contributes to shrinking of low-lying grasslands and dry-season grazing reserves. Policy makers and rangeland managers need to identify landscape prone to degradation. In future, integrating spatial information with other higher resolution data would increase the diagnostic strength of this combination of methods.



ID: 398
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: land degradation, livestock, pasturelands, rangelands, remote sensing

Mapping pasture and rangeland degradation in the Southern Cone of South America using Landsat

Radost Stanimirova1, Jordan Graesser2, Mark A. Friedl1

1Boston University, United States of America; 2The University of Queensland, Australia

Pastures and rangelands occupy roughly 33% of all land area in South America and are critical to beef production, providing 22% of animal food in the region. Pastures and rangelands comprise a substantial component of rural livelihoods, but are vulnerable to ecological changes. Specifically, degradation of pastures and rangelands via expansion of woody vegetation and desertification decreases livestock accessibility to forage grasses and increases competition for light and nutrients. Despite this, there is a lack of understanding regarding the magnitude, geography, and rate of pasture and rangeland degradation in South America. To address this, we developed a remote sensing-based methodology to assess pasture and rangeland degradation by quantifying the proportional cover and transitions through time among grasses, woody plants, and bare ground in the Southern Cone of South America. To do this, we used field observations of land cover and land use in association with high resolution imagery to estimate a model that predicts sub-pixel proportions of vegetation cover from Landsat imagery. Specifically, using a stratified random sample of Landsat grids, we used spectral mixture analysis to map the sub-pixel proportions of 4 endmembers representative of pastureland ecosystems: bare ground, grasses, woody cover, and shade. We then trained a Random Forest regression model using these sub-pixel estimates, and predicted annual sub-pixel percent cover over all pastures and rangelands in the Southern Cone at 30-meter spatial resolution. Annual cover fraction maps provide temporal information regarding vegetation dynamics in pastures and rangelands that complement a categorical classification of land cover in the Southern Cone from Graesser et al. (in prep), and provide critical baseline information necessary for adaptive pasture and rangeland management at regional scale. Our results improve understanding of land use change and pasture and rangeland degradation in the Southern Cone region, which is critically important to rural livelihoods and food security.



ID: 603
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: tidal flats, carrying capacity, assessment framework, Jiangsu

Spatio-temporal characteristics and assessment for resource and environment carrying capacity of tidal flats: A case study on coastal area of Jiangsu,China.

Rongjuan LIU1,2, Lijie PU1,2, Ming ZHU1

1School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, China; 2The Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Land and Resources, China

The tidal flats along the coastal area have great ecological value and also are important reserve land resources. In recent years, increasing human activities affected the utilization and protection of tidal flat resources. In order to seek for the balance of economy, society and natural environment, this paper built a multi-dimensional assessment framework for resource and environment carrying capacity of tidal flats based on the discussion of its conception and connotation. The assessment framework was constructed from three aepects: the tidal flat space resource index(SRI), the tidal flat vegetation resource index(VRI), and the socio-economic resource index(SERI). After selection and weighting of all indications for each index, the results of the comprehensive assessment system are finally calculated. Due to abundant tidal flats resources and huge impact of human activities, 13 coastal counties of Jiangsu Province in China were chosen for the study area. Based on land use data, socio-economic data, and multi-temporal remote sensing image data in 2000, 2007 and 2017, this study evaluated the resource and environment carrying capacity of tidal flat in study area from 2000 to 2017. This paper also analyzed regional spatial differences and temporal trends. The results show that various human interventions and environmental stresses affected the stability of the coastal ecological environment at different time scales and in different areas. This method has strong applicability for assessing status of resource utilization and environment in coastal areas.



ID: 558
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: consistency, land-use plans, strategic spatial plans, land change, Bucharest

Consistency of multi-level spatial plans to support transformations of land systems. Analyzing the case of Bucharest

Simona Bacău, Anna Hersperger

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland

Globally, planning instruments assist in the understanding of how places will develop under possible future conditions. To date, efforts have been made to link visions expressed in spatial plans with the actual changes taking place. When multi-level governance is involved, both strategic and land-use plans are available, and whereas strategic spatial plans offer more flexibility in implementation, land-use plans act as blueprints allowing to be directly linked with the current land use. A high degree of consistency among such plans greatly supports their transformative capacity. In this regard, we develop a conceptual framework introducing five levels of (in)consistency between spatial plans and land use and test it for the case of Bucharest’s green and grey infrastructures. Our approach gradually fulfills four objectives and implies both qualitative and quantitative methods. First, through content analysis of plans, planning intentions from both land-use and strategic spatial plans will be extracted and spatially computed. Second, the current land use will be extracted and classified through remote sensing techniques. Third, (in)consistencies between plans and between each plan and current land use will be assessed. Finally, the previously identified (in)consistencies will be categorized into five distinct types and linked to concrete examples of Bucharest’s green and grey areas. Our results indicate that the ideal case, i.e. complete vertical consistency where land use is spatially consistent with plans from local and regional levels is rarely found in the case of Bucharest. The consequences of these finding for assessing the transformative capacity of plans and for selecting appropriate plans in the context of land change modelling are discussed.



ID: 568
107R Assessing, modelling, and analysing land use and land management impacts on the Earth system
Keywords: ecological economics; land economics; land use change model; land use policy; urban planning

Impacts of cropland protection on trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services value of land use in rapid urbanization area: A case study of Wuhan, China

Xinli Ke, Ting Zhou

Huazhong Agricultural University, China, People's Republic of

It has been long discussed that the trade-offs between
economic benefits and ecosystem services value in circumstance of rapid urban
expansion. Meanwhile, vast loss of cropland is also a big issue in rapid
urbanization area. To guarantee food security, strict cropland protection
policies are implemented in many countries. However, few researches revealed
the impacts of the implementation of strict cropland protection policies on
trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services value in rapid
urbanization area. Taking Wuhan, a rapidly urbanizing area in central China as
the study area, we explored trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem
services value of land use under different cropland protection scenarios.
Specifically, we developed three cropland protection scenarios: Strict Cropland Protection scenario(SCP), No
Cropland Protection scenario(NCP), and Land Use Planning scenario(LUP)
.
Then, with a land use change model, the LAND System Cellular Automata for
Potential Effects model (LANDSCAPE), we simulated land use change in different
scenarios. Furthermore, economic benefits of land use were calculated by
Cobb-Douglas production function while ecosystem services value of land use was
evaluated by value transfer method in different scenarios. Thus, trade-offs
between economic benefits and ecosystem services value of land use in different
cropland protection scenarios were revealed. The results show that: (1) In
every cropland protection scenario, a mild growth in economic benefits would
result in a great loss of ecosystem services value when it comes to a certain
level of urban expansion (turning point); (2) Strict cropland protection would
aggravate the trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services value
of land use; (3) Relationship between economic benefits and ecosystem services
value in scenarios of LUP is similar to that of NCP, it means the current land use planning in Wuhan has few
negative effects on trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem
services; (4) Current trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem
services value of land use is far away from the turning point, but the turning
point is crucial for land use decision making. In conclusion, it is not wise to
implement strict cropland protection policies in rapidly urbanizing area at the
point of trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services value of
land use.



ID: 299
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Blockchain, Land administration,Land registration system, China, Cryptocurrency

Possible use and impacts of blockchain-based land administration in China

Ying Wang

China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), China, People's Republic of

A blockchain is a digitized, decentralized, public ledger of all cryptocurrency transactions. With the spread of distributed ledger technology, from agriculture to supply chains, blockchain technology has become increasingly prevalent in all industries. The enhanced security, transparency and traceability of blockchain technology have attracted several countries such as Sweden, Brazil, India and Japan to develop blockchain-based land registration system. This paper seeks to explore the possible use and impacts of applying blockchain technology to land administration in China. We first review challenges and opportunities for land registration system in China, and evaluate current land registration system by qualitative research and multi-factor comprehensive assessment method. We use the case of recent blockchain technology application on land registry in India as an illustration. We then discuss possible frameworks of utilizing blockchain technology in Chinese land registration system. We conclude by discussing the prospects of using blockchain to enhance land administration strategies in China.



ID: 875
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Yield Gaps, Food Security

Hitting the ceiling: global trends in closing yield gaps

James S Gerber1, David Makowski2, Nathan Mueller3, Deepak K Ray1, Ethan Butler1, Lindsey Sloat1, Leah Samberg1, Justin Johnson1, Stefan Siebert4, Paul C West1

1University of Minnesota, United States of America; 2INRA, Paris, France; 3UC Irvine, Irvine, CA; 4University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany

Sustainable intensification is widely promoted as an effective strategy for increasing food production while limiting environmental impacts. Yield gaps - the difference between current and attainable yields – provide a framework for analyzing and identifying areas and methods for targeting interventions to increase productivity. Past studies were centered on a single time period, hence unable to explore dynamic patterns of yield gap closure. Here, we calculate trends in yield gaps for maize, wheat, rice, and soy using annual sub-national yield and harvested data from 1970-2012. We find a steady increase in the attainable yield ceiling, although relative yield gaps have closed for all crops. Relative maize yield attainment has increased in high income regions, while decreasing in low income regions. Rice, in contrast, shows convergence in relative yield attainment among high and low income regions. For all four crops, relative yield attainment is significantly increasing for middle income countries. We find that over the period from 2000 to 2010, yield gaps have stopped growing globally for rice and wheat, and trend towards yield gap closure on nearly a quarter of harvested rice area by 2030. Investment to improve agricultural technology for crops in regions with closing yield gaps may help avert future food insecurity.



ID: 816
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Coastal Performance Index (CPI), Ocean Health Index (OHI), Sustainable development, Assessment, Jiangsu

Improving the Ocean Health Index to assess the coastal zone sustainable development in province level: A case study of Jiangsu, China

Boying Kan, Lijie Pu, Ming Zhu, Yanfei Tan

Nanjing University, China, People's Republic of

As a typical ecologically fragile area in the earth system, the coastal zone is home to nearly half of the population worldwide. Human activities (coastal reclamation, overfishing, waste releasing and tourism) have been the burden of the coastal ecosystem and continuously undermine its ability to provide well-being for future generations. The key for sustainable development in the land-sea interaction zone is to conduct a rigorous quantitative assessment of the human-natural system. In spite of many achievements in coastal areas, each methodological framework has its pros and cons and scholars have not reached an agreement in academia yet. This study improves the Ocean Health Index (OHI) into a new methodological framework—Coastal Performance Index (CPI), aiming to characterize the sustainable development level of coastal zone in Jiangsu province over the past 15 years between different development concepts, elaborate its momentum from the perspectives of socio-economic and ecological environment and provide new approach for sustainable development evaluation in coastal areas. Meanwhile, by comparing the sustainable status of different coastal cities, this study also illustrates the deficiency of promoting environmental sustainability in Jiangsu province. This research is beneficial to raise public awareness of environmental protection, assist managers in directing resource management and support decision makers in formulating major development strategies, resulting in achieving the goal of sustainable development, improving human well-being, ultimately.



ID: 316
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: adaptation, Andes Mountains, deglaciation, ecological change, land use

Post-glacial landscapes and land-use adaptations in the high mountains of Peru

Kenneth R. Young, Molly H. Polk, Sisimac Duchicela

University of Texas at Austin, United States of America

Many glaciers in Peru have exhibited negative mass balances in recent decades, and indeed those on lower mountain ranges have already disappeared. The changing landscapes include a shift from aquatic, terrestrial, and wetland systems directly subsidized by glacial meltwaters, to tropical alpine ecosystems that are instead dependent on seasonal rainfall regimes. We used two case studies to evaluate 1) if the effects of deglaciation will be a function of hydrological connectivity to the remaining glaciers, and 2) if human land-use systems in the high mountains will be able to account for the spatial implications of deglaciation. In the Cordillera Blanca of northern Peru, we used a digital terrain model and remote sensing to visualize and quantify watersheds that have already transitioned hydrologically given their relative connectivity to peaks above 5000 m that are still glaciated. Furthermore, we noted that local people are adapting by shifting herd size and livestock composition. For the second case study, located in Huancavelica in central Peru, we controlled grazing intensity with exclosures maintained for 7 years, in an experimental design that included supplemental watering as a treatment. We found that irrigation increased biomass accumulation and percent vegetation cover. Additionally, when compared to non-exclusion areas, the exclusion and watering treatments showed less cover of an Aciachne grass, which is an undesirable species from the perspective of the pastoralists. Meanwhile, even though the cushion plant-dominated wetland grazing areas have decreased in size in recent years, due to deglaciation, in fact, the local people have augmented their alpaca herds because of higher values of alpaca fiber. They also reported a willingness to continue testing the effectiveness of fencing and irrigation practices. We conclude that in both case studies, local people are flexibly responding to the shifting glacio-hydrological processes affecting their landscapes.



ID: 403
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Keywords: Land use allocation; economic development; ecosystem services; LANDSCAPE model

Optimizing land resource allocation based on spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services and land use efficiency — a case study in Wuhan, China

Weiwei Zheng, Xinli Ke, Bangyong Xiao

Huazhong Agricultural University, China, People's Republic of

With rapid economic development, urban expansion takes in both cropland and natural or semi natural land worldwide. Optimization of land use allocation is an efficient way to coordinate economic development and ecosystem services. However, few research in this field takes spatial heterogeneity of both ecosystem services and economic efficiency into consideration, which may result in bias optimization of land use allocation. In this paper, we developed a method of optimization of land use allocation based on spatial heterogeneity of both ecosystem services and economic efficiency and test this method in Wuhan, a rapidly urbanizing city in central China. Technically, the model for optimizing land use allocation in this research is based on the LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effect (LANDSCAPE). In detail, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to calculate land use efficiency in each county in Wuhan and then we translate spatial heterogeneity of land use efficiency into parameter of asynchronous rate for urban expansion in the LANDSCAPE model. Meanwhile, method of value transfer was used to figure out ecosystem services value for each land use type and then we translate spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services value into parameter of resistances in the LANDSCAPE model. Finally, land use allocation was optimized by the LANDSCAPE model with parameters of asynchronous rate of urban expansion and resistances. Results show that optimization of land use allocation in this research may improve both land use efficiency and ecosystem service value significantly, comparing to the simulation result without optimization.



ID: 393
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Land Tenure, Security, Cooperative Society, Gender equality, Sustainable Development Goal

Nigeria customary laws Versus Sustainable Development Goal 5 target 1. Institution’s Cooperative Societies, the bridge builder for land tenure security in Minna, Niger State.

Gbenga Morenikeji

Federal University of Technology Minna Nigeria, Nigeria

Customary laws are still in operation in many Nigerian communities which forbids women from having land right. According to Ademola, 1994, women according to custom are not entitled to land through inheritance but rather make land tenure in some instances patrilineal and cuts women (and girl children) off from land access. Meanwhile, United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 5 clamours for gender equality and empowerment for all women and girls. This study examined the roles of cooperative societies within Tertiary institutions in Minna, Niger State in relation to bridging gaps in women land access and tenure security in Nigeria. The study utilized purposive method of sampling. The cooperative societies involved in land redistribution and beneficiaries were contacted for the study. It was observed that cooperative society as a cooperate entity gains access to large portion of land with strong tenure security and redistribute to staff putting into consideration gender equality. It was observed that repayment period for acquired lands were spread over the years for convenience sake on the part of the buyers. The beneficiaries were satisfied with the arrangement which also afford them opportunity to acquire more than one plot of land. The study recommends several ways of making the practice sustainable.



ID: 457
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Telecoupling, drivers, eHANPP, international trade, biophysical flows

Analyzing drivers of global biophysical flows in a telecoupled world using the embodied HANPP indicator

Nicolas Roux1, Perrine Laroche2, Helmut Haberl1, Karlheinz Erb1

1BOKU University, Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna; 2Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies

Through the acceleration of globalization, distant coupled human-environment systems have become increasingly connected. These connections are prompted by flows, among which biomass trade exerts the highest pressure on land resources. In order to govern telecouplings related to land use, it has hence become crucial to understand the drivers of biophysical flows embodied or contained in the international trade of biomass. Toward this end, this study uses global datasets on the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) embodied in the global trade of biomass-based products. Based on FAO bilateral trade matrices, the embodied HANPP (eHANPP) dataset covers the import and export flows of c500 products between c200 countries, and was chosen for its ability to encompass both the extent and intensity of land use.

The direction and intensity of flows are determined by social, environmental and economic drivers, including tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, climate and topography, cultural distance, economic development and human diets. We differentiated potential drivers according to whether they mainly affect supply, trade or demand of HANPP, in order to depict spillovers and decoupling potentials. Based on datasets from the FAO, WTO, World Bank and other sources, we carried out a principle component analysis in order to identify, among the large number of potential drivers, a set of independent variables explaining global eHANPP flows. We then performed a random forest analysis to define the causal power of the respective components. Finally, by analogy to the gravity models of international trade, we suggest a gravity equation of biophysical flows, able to model and predict the direction and intensity of flows.

Our preliminary results reveal that cross-effects between drivers of consumption, production and trade play a significant role in explaining eHANPP flows, implying that these should be considered jointly when analyzing telecouplings. The suggested methodology opens the path to new research on how to govern telecouplings, by finding the levers to enhance or reduce specific biophysical flows, according to their respective impacts on local coupled human-environmental systems.



ID: 670
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Agro-ecosystems, soils, ecosystem functions, policy instruments

Maintaining soil-related agro-ecosystem functions and services: Challenges and Opportunities

Nina Hagemann1,2, Victoria Dietze2, Christian Schleyer3,4

1International Institute Zittau / Technische Universität Dresden, Germany; 2Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Germany; 3Universität Kassel, Germany; 4University of Innsbruck, Austria

Agro-ecosystems provide a broad range of ecosystem services for the well-being of humans. They serve, for example, as a carbon pool, produce biomass, and are of crucial importance for biodiversity conservation. However, these services and the underlying ecosystem functions are endangered due to the increasing pressure on agro-ecosystems, especially soils. Thus, in Europe agricultural, environmental, and rural policies are increasingly focusing on soil protection and measures to preserve ecosystem functions of agro-ecosystems, and thus to ensure the provision of important ecosystem services. They do so by setting financial and other incentives for farmers and other land users to adopt environment-friendly farming practices beyond those legally required. Greening and agri-environmental climate measures of the EU Common Agricultural Policy are examples, but also information campaigns. However, the
(cost-)effectiveness of those policies has often found to be low, frequently failing to initiate the intended behavioural change.

There is a growing body of literature presenting theoretical and conceptual insights as well as empirical case studies on the determinants for the limited (cost-)effectiveness of those soil-related policies and thus on ways to (better) preserve soil-related agro-ecosystem functions and services. Identifying and analysing these barriers is crucial for designing and implementing policies that will successfully encourage land users to apply sustainable farming practices. Important barriers identified range from economic, ecologic, technical, and administrative reasons. They also include barriers that are difficult to capture and address like cultural aspects, social issues, or personal aspects (e.g., individual perceptions of nature, and objections against changing traditional practices).

This paper systematically reviews the relevant academic and grey literature, clusters the determinants into thematic topics, and shows the relevance of those barriers in general, and in different selected European countries in particular. Finally, it discusses the potential of ‘nudges’ and (other) relevant soil-related policies to effectively address these barriers.



ID: 763
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: solar power plants, land transformation, food security

Impacts of Solar power plants on agriculture productivity in India

Ram Avtar, Sudha Suresh

Hokkaiod University, Japan

Traditional electricity relies heavily on fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Not only they are bad for the environment, but they are also limited resources. India has been growing their renewable energy resources to fulfill the demand for energy because of industrialization and urbanization. From among all the renewable energy sources, solar energy has been the most promising one. Its extractable potential is so huge its land-based technical potential remains large. India has high solar energy potential, therefore, the government is promoting solar power plants. The overarching goal of this study to study the impacts of solar power plants on agriculture productivity. We have identified locations of the solar power plants that replaced productive agriculture land. These land transformations can create a future challenge to food security. Therefore, it is important to identify the solar power plant site with less impacts of agriculture productivity.



ID: 592
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: relict tundra, grass species, remote sensing, spatial resolution, spectral resolution, time series

Classification of grass tundra vegetation in the Krkonoše Mts.: applicability of remote sensing imagery with different spatial and spectral resolutions and different classification methods

Lucie Kupková, Lucie Červená, Markéta Potůčková, Markéta Roubalová, Jakub Lysák

Charles University Prague, Czech Republic

Relict arcto-alpine tundra of the Krkonoše Mts (Czechia) is unique valuable island of tundra in the central Europe, a “biodiversity crossroads” where Nordic and alpine flora and fauna coexist. Besides the mosses, lichens, alpine heathlands and Pinus mugo scrub the prevailing vegetation types are closed alpine grasslands dominated by Nardus stricta and subalpine tall grasslands. Over the years, the arctic-alpine tundra was affected by human impacts and expanding due to local agricultural practices that included deforestation and grazing from the 9th century till the beginning of the 19th century. Since early 20th century this human impact has been reduced and the area became strictly protected as a nature reserve. Last decade observations suggest spread of grass species Molinia caerulea and Calamagrostis villosa on areas formerly covered by Nardus stricta. Evaluation of remote sensing applicability to detect and monitor these changes was the main goal of our study. Several types of remote sensing data (Landsat 8, Sentinel-2A, WorldView-2, AISA DUAL, APEX, Planet Scope, orthoimages) were employed and several pixel-based (Maximum likelihood, Neural Net, SVM) and object-based methods were used to evaluate and compare the feasibility of remote sensing optical imagery with different spectral and spatial resolutions to distinguish between these three type of grass species. Also, applicability of seasonal multi-temporal approach was evaluated (time series of Sentnel-2 and Planet Scope imagery). As for multispectral data object-based classification (RBF classifier) of orthoimages with spatial resolution 12.5 cm brought surprisingly the best overall classification accuracy (83.6%). For the grass species differentiation, the best results (Producer’s accuracy over 83% and User’s accuracy over 86% for Nardus stricta, over 87% and 82% respectively for Calamagrostis villosa and for Molinia caerulea 79% and 75% resp.) were reached using aerial hyperspectral data (AISA Dual and APEX) with very high spatial and spectral resolution. The time series of Sentinel-2 images was influenced by low data availability during the season of 2016 and the overall accuracy was only 53.4%. Planet Scope cloudless time series though is rather dense (8 images in model area during the summer season 2017). These data are being just analysed and results will be ready for the presentation on GLP Open Science Meeting.



ID: 695
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: vineyard, semi-natural, habitat, Thomisidae, biocontrol

Does semi-natural habitat amplify beneficial spider populations in a California organic vineyard?

Robert Cord Phelps, Lindsey Norgrove

Master's Division, School for Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences - HAFL, Bern University of Applied Sciences - BFH

Agricultural ecologists view “semi-natural habitats” as areas characterized by reduced management activity and the presence of native vegetation. These zones are thought to represent a persistent reservoir of beneficial insect populations. Faced with an array of pest management challenges, the potential contribution of semi-natural habitat to biological control strategies has been researched by the organic grape wine industry. However, conclusions are often contradictory and qualitative.

Various Diptera, Lepidoptera and Hemiptera including Aphids, Leafhoppers, and Mealybugs, have the potential to cause economic damage to both the wine grape crop and to vines. These pests are predated by Araneae (spiders) that overwinter in, and emigrate from, semi-natural habitat at the vineyard edges. Here, we assessed the spatial pattern and density of predatory spiders during the growing season, comparing a vineyard transect bordered by a native oak grove (the semi-natural habitat) with one bordered by an empty field in central coast California, USA.

To evaluate the arthropod population densities, we collect samples from non-lethal vane traps suspended in the canopy. We found that arthropod abundance was 30% higher in the semi-natural habitat transect early in the growing season, while arthropod diversity was consistently comparable for the two transects.

Three distinct spider population clusters persisted throughout the season in both transects. Contrary to our initial assumptions, spider populations increased from the transect edge until at least 60 m into the vineyard. We conclude that semi-natural habitat dominated by mature oak trees amplified populations of the generalist spiders Thomisidae in the first 60 m of the transect.



ID: 782
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: land system, human-environment interaction, natural environment, human activity intensity, integrated method

An integrated method to map the interactions between human and natural environment----- a case study of Jiangsu province in China

Lin Yang1, Feixue Shen1, Chenghu Zhou1,2

1Nanjing University, China, People's Republic of; 2State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS, Beijing 100101,China,People's Republic of

Land systems are the result of interactions between human and natural environment. Understanding the spatial patterns of the human-environment interactions can be helpful to assess the role of human in land systems and to provide support for future land management in a sustainable way. Most of the present studies to depict the interactions focus on classification of land cover, and land-use management intensity has also been considered recently. However, these studies ignore to take account of natural environment. This paper proposed an integrated way to map land systems by combining natural environmental data, land use and human activity intensity data calculated based on social economic and remote sensing data. Jiangsu province in China, as an important cultivated district and also one of the most developed provinces, is taken as an the study area. Two levels were set to describe the land systems in Jiangsu province. The first level unit was geomorphologic type, soil type plus land use type, and the second level unit was the first level detailing with human activity intensities. A bottom up method was used to map the human-environment interactions of Jiangsu province. The mapping result show that 1)Cultivated land system and urban land system are the first two largest land systems, and together of the two exceed 80% of the total area of Jiangsu Province;2)the spatial distribution of human activity intensities of cultivated land systems shows a trend of gradually rising from the south to the north, and decreasing from the inside of the central land system to outside; 3)the spatial distribution of soil type is of great significance to the development of urban land systems and cultivated land systems,4) the policy of prime cropland preservation and modern agriculture development are the important driving factors to determine the sustainability of cultivated land systems.



ID: 426
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Urban landscape, Boundary, Spatial indicators, Technomass, NDVI, Green and grey system

Ecosystem services deficits in cross-boundary landscapes: spatial mismatches between green and grey systems

Marcin Spyra1, Luis Inostroza2, Adam Hamerla3, Jan Bondaruk3

1Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany; 2Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Bochum, Germany; 3Central Mining Institute, Katowice, Poland

Quantitative analyses of the influence of boundary lines on ecosystem services distributions remain rare. Approaches towards integrative assessments of green and grey landscape systems, particularly in cross-boundaries contexts, remain underdeveloped. This study aims to close that knowledge gap. This study was carried out in the cross-boundary landscape of the cities of Cieszyn (in Poland) and Český Těšín (in the Czech Republic), which form one urban system that is divided by a national boundary. The study proposes a novel quantitative method to (1) assess and analyse the spatial structure of urban green and grey systems and (2) analyse the potential provision of ecosystem services (ES) in cross-boundary landscapes. The methodology could be useful for various types of cross-boundary landscapes. A spatial analysis using technomass (Ψ) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicators was performed and combined with population data. The ratio between technomass and number of inhabitants to NDVI, used as a proxy indicator for the provision of ES, was implemented for the identification of areas of deficits in ecosystem services provision. The study shows significant spatial asymmetries, indicated inter alia by the share of grey and green systems and distribution of ES deficit areas. The spatial asymmetries of the urban cross-boundary landscape indicate the need for environmental governance covering green and grey systems located on both sides of a boundary as a spatial unit. This challenges current planning frameworks based mostly on Bstatic^ Euclidean land-use zones.



ID: 836
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Arable land, Food security, Bangladesh

Rapidly disappearing arable land of bangladesh

Md. Golam Mahabub Sarwar

Committed to Earth Care (CEC), Bangladesh, People's Republic of

Per capita arable land for the people of Bangladesh has been analyzed for the period of 1971-2015. In the year of independency (1971), per capita area of arable land was a total of 0.33 acres. In 44 years of time, per capita arable land squeezed to 0.12 acres. Conversion of agricultural land, population expulsion and land degradation due to river bank erosion are major causes of gradual decrease of per capita arable land. In spite of involving many factors involved in the decrease of these land, a business as usual scenario suggests anxious result. If this rate of degradation continues for only a total of 17 years, the country will have no arable land. Bangladesh is a land of 147,570 km2. This small area supports livelihood of about 156,186,882 people, which is about 2.13% of global populace. Vanishing arable land in such a high rate will reduce food production at an ironic rate. Failure of handling this high rate of decrease of arable land will invite famine to this densely populated country. Additionally, land conversion hotspots have been identified at national scale. The rate of the conversion of agriculture land to other uses is the highest around Dhaka city. Land degradation rate is higher in suburban area than rural landscape.



ID: 607
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: multi-source remote sensed images; gully erosion; ideal data source; comparison methods; field investigation

Comparing the parameters of erosion gullies based on multi-source remote sensed images

Liping Chang

Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, China, People's Republic of

Abstract: In this study, based on multi-source remote sensed images including Pleiades, Spot5, GF-1, Alos and ZY-3 images and DMC aerial photos, combined with DEM data, using qualitative method, parameters of erosion gullies extracted from different remote sensed images were analyzed comprehensively. Two investigation units were selected in survey area for field verification. The erosion gullies were extracted by visual interpretation. The results showed that: (1) Pleiades and DMC could express exactly the parameters of erosion gullies for their higher spatial resolution, while time and manpower cost increased in the meantime. (2) The expression ability of each source for the types of erosion gullies are much different. Compared with Pleiades and Alos, ZY-3 and GF-1 remote sensed images are the ideal sources to extract stable gully, dissected gully and gulch gully, considering the economic cost simultaneously. (3) Comparing with the field investigation data of gullies, the parameters of number, length and width extracted based on ZY-3 AND GF-1 images approximate.



ID: 742
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: land use, land cover, MENA region, water-energy-food nexus, Future Earth

Land-use/land-cover changes and the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA Region – a Future Earth perspective

Manfred Lange

The Cyprus Institute, Cyprus

The region encompassing the Middle Eastern and North-African countries, called the MENA Region faces multiple challenges for a sustainable and secure future development. Challenges include a large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades and substantial societal and economical transitions as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries of the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges with regard to providing sufficient amounts of water, food and energy to the communities in the region. Impacts of climate change will materialize as an increasing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures and the decline in water availability as a result of enhanced droughts and a growing numbers of dry spells. Against this background, changes in characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems (desertification) and land use practices, primarily the need to employ irrigated agriculture combined with enhanced fertilization and pest control as a means to maintain food security exacerbate the risk of losing vital ecosystem services and of sharpening water scarcity and the provision of safe and reliable potable water for local communities. The pumping, transport and treatment of water as well as the need to maintain comfortable conditions in the built environment through space cooling places significant pressure on energy systems and emphasizes the need for holistic strategies and solutions concerning the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the MENA Region. Future Earth in general and the Future Earth MENA Regional Center (FEMRC) in Nicosia, Cyprus aim to address this challenge through the implementation of and an active involvement of the FEMRC in the Water-Energy-Food-Nexus Knowledge Action Network (see: http://futureearth.org/research-and-engagement-plan). The present paper will demonstrate/illustrate our approach and first results.



ID: 753
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: land use models; scenarios, urban growth;

The use of two simulation models for capturing differences in future urban growth.

Marta Gallardo

University of Murcia, Spain

In the last decades, the Spanish greatest urban development has taken place in the Region of Madrid and in the Spanish Mediterranean coast. Between 1990 and 2006, artificial uses in the Region of Madrid increased in almost 70%. This urban development has been located throughout its territory, even inside natural protected areas, but has been more intense around its metropolitan area, especially taking up agricultural lands. Legislation on urban planning in the region and its municipalities, allowed vast areas to became urbanized.

Built-up growth has impacts in the environment. It is associated to biodiversity losses, landscape fragmentation, greenhouse gases emissions, or soil quality degradation, among others. Scenarios can be used to highlight what might happen under different circumstances and they have become an increasingly used tool for policy assessment in order to detect future environmental problems.

We simulate land use changes in the Region of Madrid between 2006 and 2025 taking into account two scenarios: business as usual and green. In order to understand this urban transformation, both scenarios are modelled separately using the free software CLUE and the commercial software Land Change Modeler from TerrSet. Differences between both scenarios and models are shown, focusing in the contiguous metropolitan area. Understanding the mode of operation of the models and obtaining feasible results can help to comprehend the landscape transformations and therefore can be a starting point for policy discussion, mainly focused on potential management uses and regarding to a better sustainable planning.



ID: 734
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: land management institution, gully erosion, remote sensing, the Black Soil Area

Changing land management institution and its effect on the development of gully erosion in black soil area of Northeast China

Jiuchun Yang

Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, China, People's Republic of

Land management institution is the integral human decision made based on assessing quantitatively land system change and its ecological effects, which is prerequisite to understand and propose sustainable land management strategies. Under the goal of achieving land degradation neutrality and the background of readjustment of Chinese agricultural structure, it is necessary and urgent to pay attention to the influence of different land management institutions on land system changes. The evolution process of land management institution, experienced army-owned farms (A1) and collectively owned People’s Commune (B1) (1947-1956), to state-owned farms (A2) (after 1956) and household contract responsibility system (B2) (after 1978), to the farmer specialized cooperatives (B3) (after 2006), which could be reflected by the types of farmers. The boundary of army owned and state-owned farms were delineated based on the thematic map. Other region outside the farms was tilled by individual farmers. The gully data in the study area were extracted by interactive human-machine interpretation method, based on remote sensed images of the Corona images centered the year of 1965 with spatial resolution of about 3m, Spot5 images centered the year of 2005 with spatial resolution of 5m and GF-1 images with 2m spatial resolution obtained in 2015. The gully data of 1965 had been validated by historical observation records, and that of 2005 and 2015 validated by field survey. Through the analysis with comparing the number, speed and erode area of gullies developed respectively under the institutions of A and B, the results showed that erosion gullies increased during the period of 1965- 2005. The results would provide a reference to the readjustment of agricultural structure and decision making of sustainable agricultural institution.



ID: 796
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: vegetation function, canopy chlorophyll, high temporal frequency, medium and high spatial and spectral resolution monitoring

Prospects for satellite monitoring of canopy chlorophyll content

Petya Campbell1, Christopher Neigh2, Fred Huemmrich1, Jana Albrechtova3, Elizabeth Middleton2, Mumin Abdulahi1

1University of Maryland Baltimore County, United States of America; 2NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA; 3Charles University, Prague, Czech Republik

Coordinated research efforts are underway, utilizing the NASA Multi-Source Land Imaging (MuSLI) Homogenized L-8 and S-2 (HLS) high-frequency time series and the high spatial resolution commercial archives (e.g. World View, WV), to develop canopy Chlorophyll (Chl) content maps, and assess the seasonal changes in chlorophyll and productivity for key ecosystems at select sites in the US and Czech republic.

Our goal is to produce high temporal resolution consistent medium and high resolutions (e.g. 30m and 5 m) Chl product prototypes and robust algorithms that can reliably be scaled to regional and continental scales.

The key objectives of the effort are to: 1) using in a seamless fashion the MuSLI HLS dense time series to develop algorithms for estimating canopy chlorophyll (Chl) content; 2) generate robust workflows and produce high density time series of canopy Chl products for major vegetation cover types; and 3) assess the accuracy of the canopy Chlorophyll algorithms for the diverse spectrum of crops, grasslands and forests within North-Eastern US and the South Central and Eastern European (SCERIN) region.

An update of teh SCERIN activities will also be presented. The work of SCERIN can significantly facilitate the development of a consistent canopy Chl product, contributing for enhancement and standardization of LCLUC monitoring of vegetation function and productivity.



ID: 881
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: telecoupling, food system, vulnerability, markets, Brazil

Governing telecoupled food systems to overcome common vulnerabilities

Mateus Batistella, Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva, Luiz Martinelli, Emilio Moran, James Millington

Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Brazil

The increasing global demand for food is driven by population growth and improved living standards in developing countries. A great challenge in the coming decades is not only where and how this food will be produced; but how vulnerable this food system might be to business as usual and disruptive forces. Here we address such vulnerabilities and concluded that creative management of local natural resources, effective policies, and agricultural innovation are key. Focusing on inputs, four major firms control the market of seeds and chemicals in the world´s agribusiness. Only five countries (i.e., Brazil, China, India, Russia, USA) consume 64% of the global fertilizer production. China alone is responsible for a third of the global fertilizer consumption. Together, these five countries produced approximately half of the cereals and half of the meat in the planet. Such consolidation in the global market created several bottlenecks leading to a worrisome vulnerability of the global food system. We focus our analysis on Brazil and its vulnerabilities, particularly on its demand for imported fertilizers. Claimed to be one of the main food supply sources for the global market in the near future, trade issues may affect this expectation. If Brazil does not have access to imported Potash, for example, it will fall short in producing food commodities. We discuss how these vulnerabilities may be addressed with focus on the governance of telecoupled systems.



ID: 613
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: agricultural systems, agricultural dynamics, biodiversity indicators, spatial analysis, Mediterranean basin

Impacts of agricultural systems dynamics on Mediterranean biodiversity: a large scale spatial analysis approach

Johanna FUSCO1, Marta DEBOLINI2, Alberte BONDEAU1

1Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix-en-Provence, France; 2INRA – UMR EMMAH, Avignon, France

The Mediterranean Basin is a biodiversity hotspot. Its species richness is fostered by a mosaic of landscapes that have been influenced by agricultural practices such as sylvo-pastoralism or agroforestry, known to improve the good functioning of ecosystems. However, Mediterranean agricultural systems have known significant changes in terms of land use and management practices, following a set of drivers taking place at different scales. Agricultural system dynamics have thus become a cause of habitat loss and degradation, severely threatening animal and vegetal biodiversity. In order to support sustainable land management, an overall understanding of the feedback mechanisms and on the human-environment interactions at the Mediterranean basin level is needed.

A global analysis on land system typology and short-term dynamics has been produced for the whole Mediterranean basin at 2km resolution with a focus on agricultural areas (Debolini et al. proposal, session 251N). We classified, described and mapped Mediterranean land system trajectories, in particular intensification, extensification and specialization. The objective of this work is to identify the effects of the observed agricultural systems’ changes on biodiversity, in terms of crop species diversity, degradation of habitats and landscape simplification. This will be performed by assessing and spatializing a set of biodiversity indicators for the whole Mediterranean basin. This analysis will allow comparing the behavior of different agricultural systems and their changes in terms of biodiversity conservation, in order to assess which type of changes will a have major or minor impact, or even a positive effect. The relationship between biodiversity indicators and agricultural structures and dynamics will be then assessed by using spatial statistics’ methods and tools. Spatial data on biodiversity and crop diversity and their responses to agricultural pressures will be provided the IUCN Regional Red List of Threatened Species, PREDICTS database and the agricultural census database of the Mediterranean basin.



ID: 705
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Urbanization, Sub-Saharan Africa, Nighttime Lights, Geography, Remote Sensing

Inventorying population pressures across Sub-Saharan Africa

Cascade Tuholske, Kelly Caylor

University of California, Santa Barbara, United States of America

According to the United Nations Population Division, Sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population is projected to triple over the next 30 years, ballooning from 375 million in 2015 to over 1.2 billion by 2050. Widely cited as the authoritative source to track urbanization across the region, this data influences a wide range of policy decisions formulated across-levels of governance. Yet a compelling body of research has shown that UN-DESA projections have been incorrect in the past. Critics of the UN-DESA argue that the these projections over-emphasizes primary cities and capitals and offer little insight into the growth patterns of smaller cities and towns. Specifically, it is unclear the degree to which market towns and secondary cities are contributing to urban population growth nor if city-level economic growth is concurrent with population growth across the urban hierarchy.

Here we present a novel method to inventory changes in population and economic development for over 15,000 labeled urban settlements across Sub-Saharan Africa. For each labeled urban settlement in our dataset, we list population counts measured by WorldPop, the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Landscan, and the Global Human Settlement Layer Data. Economic output is measured by stable nighttime lights remote sensed data product produced from the DMSP/OLS and VIIRS satellites. For every available time point for each dataset, we compile cumulative density functions of urban population across city sizes to track how population pressures are evolving overtime, between countries, and across agroecological zones. Our results detail how urban population growth and economic growth varies across city sizes, illuminating which cities may have increased population but not equal economic expansion. This approach focuses on the population and economic dynamics of small- and medium-sized cities with the goal of forwarding urban research and policy agendas across Sub-Saharan Africa.



ID: 496
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Subsistence agricultural economy; out-migration; depletion of agricultural resources; climate change; food, health and livelihood security

Increasing human-wildlife conflicts and agricultural land abandonment in Himalaya: patterns, drivers, and consequences

Prakash Tiwari1, Bhagwati Joshi2

1Kumaun University, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India; 2Government Post Graduate College, Rudrapur, India

In Himalaya, nature of terrain imposes severe restrictions on carrying capacity of natural resources as well as on the efficiency of infrastructure and services. As a result, forest-based subsistence farming constitutes main source of rural-food and livelihood. Owing to constraints of subsistence economy, large proportion of rural male-youth population out-migrates creating scarcity of farm-labour and leading to feminization of mountain farming and resource development system, and abandonment of agricultural land. Moreover, during recent years, incidences of human and livestock killings and crop depredation increased due to steadily growing wildlife population, resulting into human-wildlife conflicts and rapid abandonment of farmland. Paper aims at analysing patterns, drivers, and consequences of land abandonment with case illustration of Ramgad Watershed in Middle Himalaya, India. Geo-spatial techniques were employed for mapping and analysis of the pattern of agricultural-land abandonment; and primary survey tools used for the interpretation of its drivers, and assessment of socio-economic and environmental consequences.

Results indicated constraints of subsistence agricultural-economy, and resultant increasing trends of outmigration; disruption of ecosystem services; depletion of agricultural resources, particularly land, water, forests and biodiversity were main drivers of agricultural land abandonment during 1970-2000. Climate change and climate change-induced hydrological disaster further increased trends of land-abandonment during 2001-2010. However, increasing incidences of human-wildlife conflicts contributed 75% land abandonment during last10 years causing loss of more than 1500 human-lives, 1100 livestock and devastation of nearly 60% crops. As a result, not only large proportion of agricultural land is being abandoned declining farm productivity, depleting agro-biodiversity and feminizing poverty; but also increasing vulnerability of large proportion of population, particularly poor and marginalized, to food, health and livelihood security in underdeveloped mountains under climate change. Effective ground-reality based participatory strategies for reducing human-wildlife conflict are therefore necessary for reversing trend of land-abandonment and restoring socio-economic and environmental sustainability in Himalaya.



ID: 383
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Bosnian war, land systems, urban areas, topological analysis, land-use changes, conflicts

Topological analysis and land-use changes under conflict: The transformation of Dobrinja in Sarajevo

Inés Aquilué

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain

Regarding topological interpretation of space, this research aims to identify land and urban systems, whose topology becomes increasingly determining under high uncertainty. This topological approach has been applied in an evolutionary analysis of spaces under siege, fear and conflict, which conducted to develop a specific method. This method analyses the transformation of urban and rural landscapes in five consecutive phases: initial land system and urban form [1], increase of uncertainty [2], security apparatus [3], change in land system and urban form [4], information flows [5]. These five phases were applied to different empirical studies, analysed through specific physical and topological models.

In the light of this method, a selected urban area named Dobrinja –a suburb in Sarajevo– has been examined. Dobrinja is a neighbourhood built during the socialist period surrounded by rural areas in the outskirts of Sarajevo. Once the Bosnian War had begun, Dobrinja suffered severe changes, first provoked by the violence of the siege of Sarajevo [1992-1995], and then by the Inter-Entity Boundary Line –result of the Dayton Peace Agreement [December 1995]–, which divided the neighbourhood and caused serious alterations in its ethno-demographic and spatial structure. These political alterations triggered changes in planning land-use in both sides of the Inter-Entity Boundary Line, producing a new urban centre next to Dobrinja where rural and military systems used to be established. The timeline period of the evolutionary analysis begins with the construction of the neighbourhood in 1984 and continues to the present day.

Thanks to the described method and the physical and topological analyses, the causes of the land-use changes in Dobrinja and their spatial consequences in both urban and rural areas have been found out. Indeed, the research demonstrates how the Bosnian War and the Dayton Peace Agreement had highly determined the future of the land system in Dobrinja, in the outskirts of Sarajevo.



ID: 474
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Anacardium occidentalae L., cashew nuts, land use, reforestation, Côte d’Ivoire

Impact of the expansion of Anacardium occidentalae L. on the savanna landscapes and its implications on the reforestation policy in Côte d’Ivoire

Moussa KONE

Université Félix Houphoüet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

Since the last two years, Côte d’Ivoire is the number one producer and exporter of row cashew nuts in the world with 711 000 tons in 2017. This impressive achievement stems from the initiative of small farmers to diversify their sources of income. The cashew crop now exceeds that of other cash crops such as cotton in the Ivorian savanna regions. Today, cashew nuts are after cocoa, the second most important agricultural product for export of the country. In contrast to the growing economic importance of cashew nuts, little attention has been paid to the impact of the growth of Anacardium occidentalae L. on vegetation in the savanna region. This study fills this gap thanks to an analysis of the vegetation cover dynamics of savanna environments between 2007 and 2017 through an intensive fieldwork and an analysis of Landstat satellite imagery. Also, the study examines the implications of the expansion of tree plantation on the reforestation policy in Côte d'Ivoire. The research has been conducted in the Korhogo region, northern Côte d’Ivoire during the last 10 years. The results show that the expansion of Anacardium occidentalae L. leads to a reforestation of the savanna. In addition findings show that the forest status of cashew orchards within the Ivorian reforestation policy is ambiguous.



ID: 332
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Commodity frontier, deforestation, land allocation / titling

Implications of expanding agricultural frontiers for land tenure and use: the case of San Ignacio de Velasco, eastern Bolivian lowlands

Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert

Greifswald University, Germany

San Ignacio de Velasco lies in the Bolivian lowlands, in the East Chiquitania at the border to the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia. It is currently experiencing the highest deforestation rates at national scale as two fronts of agricultural expansion progressively meet. Mechanised agriculture spreads from the West and South, and large-scale cattle ranching from the East. This case study touches many of the topics raised by the session:

  • State policy underscores the expansion of the agricultural frontier by facilitating deforestation through recent land use regulations and planing instruments, which substantially hinder forest management and protection.

  • There is no land tenure security per se as tenure is conditional on use through the fulfilment of the economic and social function of the land (i.e. subsistence or commercial agriculture / cattle ranching)

  • Land tenure is undergoing rapid transformation as: 1) (foreign) nationals acquire large stretches of land, while 2) much land is being distributed by the State, in particular to Andean (landless) peasant communities

  • Land conflicts abound, in part due to: 1) the centralised process of land allocation / titling, which often ignores local customary rights, 2) the chronic (agricultural) land scarcity that affects local indigenous communities, 3) differential treatment of land users, which favours governmental allies

  • As many actors move into this emerging commodity frontier, (in)formal mechanisms to access land become more complex and land prices increase rapidly

  • Land tenure data is difficult to obtain as governmental institutions run the land allocation / titling process in a very intransparent manner. Moreover, land conversion is so dynamic that land tenure data would need to be updated yearly to be meaningful.

This case study will presents important dimensions driving the rapidly changing panorama of land tenure in the region and their land use implications.



ID: 384
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Pakistan, Hindukush mountains, Post-conflict interventions, Militancy, Land use change

Land use change in conflict-affected highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan

Khurram Iqbal, Babar Shahbaz

University of Agriculture Faisalabad Pakistan, Pakistan

The mountainous districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan have witnessed armed conflict, insurgency/militancy, wars and natural disasters during the recent past. Surrounded by the Hindukush mountain range, the districts of Swat and parts of Lower Dir were occupied by the Taliban during 2009 and regained by the Pakistani army in 2010 after a fierce military operation. More than three million residents of these conflict affected areas migrated to ‘safer’ areas during the war and then returned to their homes after military operation. An intensive relief and rehabilitation process was subsequently started by the national and international aid agencies. Agriculture, forests and livestock grazing are major land-uses in these ‘conflict-affected’ areas and land is a highly contested issue even before the conflict. In this background, this paper empirically analyzes changes in land-use system due to armed conflicts, subsequent migration and rehabilitation. Specific focus of the paper is that how different actors responded to the conflict and post-conflict situations in the perspective of land use system and how rehabilitation interventions by the aid agencies have changed the farming system in these areas.



ID: 672
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: Land, innovation, community, co-production, participatory

Potentials of serious games in addressing land conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa

ALIYU BARAU

Bayero University Kano, Nigeria, Nigeria

Conflicts over land resources continue to unfold in most conflated ways and across scales. Traditional conflicts between occupational and tribal groups are escalating with resultant bloodshed and population displacement as in many parts of Nigeria and West African region. New emerging conflicts over land are driven by globalisation and economic liberalisation of economies of African states. Statistics revealed that by 2016 about 10 million hectares of land used by African smallholder farmers is being taken out production every year through land grabbing for agribusiness. Conflicts resolutions mechanisms have often failed to effectively address the emerging multifarious challenges. Recently, some scholars have advocated the need to engage innovative and transformative land governance initiatives that could offer new understandings or solutions that fit the challenges on ground. This paper explores the potentials of serious games as tools for co-producing ideas, and eliciting perspectives from across disputing communities, marginalised groups, policymakers and wide range of stakeholders. The paper reviews similar scenarios where serious games were applied and found to be helpful in giving deeper insights into understanding conflicts and co-crating solutions.



ID: 789
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Agricultural land use change, socio-economic, ecology, Ganges Basin, remote sensing

Changes in agricultural land use and land cover in the Ganges Basin 2000-2015: A socioeconomic-ecological analysis

Liping Di1, Junmei Tang1, Ziqi Yu1, Man Li2, Wei Zhang2, Ze Guo2

1George Mason University, United States of America; 2International Food Policy Research Institute, United States of America

The agricultural outputs of Ganges Basin feed almost one-tenth of the world population. A deeper understanding of the drivers and socioeconomic and ecological impacts of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) in the basin is essential to better inform land use policies and to support United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

This study combines remote sensing and GIS techniques with an integrated modeling approach to 1) identify LCLUC that occurred in the Ganges Basin during 2000‒2015; and 2) identify and quantify the primary socioeconomic drivers of LCLUC. Three levels of LCLU data were produced, including 1) LCLU data from 2000-2015 at 5-year interval and 30-meter resolution to identify changes from agricultural to non-agricultural, and vice versa; 2) change in cropping systems, such as from rice to maize; and 3) change in the intensity of agricultural land use. The levels 2 and 3 data were produced only for selected areas where rapid LCLUC was discovered in the level-1 data.

The preliminary analysis of LCLU data indicates overall the agricultural land shrunk while the grassland and forestland expanded in the past 15 years. The changes were most significant in areas near big cities. The analysis of drivers shows that urbanization and economic development are the primary drivers and governmental policy on ecological protection and biodiversity is the secondary driver for the changes. The analysis of levels 2 and 3 data finds that the area’s cropping systems have experienced some significant changes, including idling of farmland, from labor-intensive cropping to less labor-demanding cropping, and from less profitable crop cultivation to more profitable cash cropping and aquaculture. The globalization of agriculture and comparative economic advantage of other industries are the main causes of the level-2 and level-3 land use changes in the region. Further study will be conducted to analyze the impacts of such changes to sustainable agriculture, food security, and ecological health in the South Asia and the world.



ID: 421
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: farmland abandonment; land consolidation; urbanization; land policy

Farmland abandonment and land consolidation in China: contradictions and Countermeasures

Huping Hou, Shaoliang Zhang, Fan Wang

China University of Mining and Technology, China, People's Republic of

With the development of urbanization, per capita cultivated land decreased from 1,013 m2 in 2009 to 973 m2 in 2016, and per capita abandoned land increased from 16 m2 in 2009 to 21 m2 in 2016 in China. Chinese government has been carrying out land consolidation projects to supplement cultivated land. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, 1.33 million hm2 of cultivated land was added by land consolidation, including 0.60 million hm2 of cultivated land from cultivated land consolidation. But, 80% of Chinese villages still meet the problem of abandoning arable land with the abandonment rate 3% - 34.03%. On the one hand, Central Government encourages land consolidation to increase cultivated land, on the other hand, the existing farmland is abandoned. The paper discussed the issue, adopting literature research method and comparative analysis method. The results indicate that (1) the spatial distribution of land consolidation projects and abandoned cultivated land is different. Land consolidation projects are mainly conducted in relatively smooth terrain region, while the abandoned arable land is mainly distributed in remote mountainous areas. (2) The behavioral agents are inconsistency. Farmers abandon their cultivated land, but local governments organize land consolidation. So there is a mismatch between the driving forces of land consolidation and abandonment of cultivated land, which leads to the imbalance of supply and demand of land consolidation. (3) Lower planting income is the main reason of abandoning cultivated land. The direct driving forces are worse agricultural infrastructure, poorer quality of cultivated land, and higher cost of rural labor. (4) The driving forces of land consolidation are local government's benefit, national agricultural development policy, and demand of urban development. (5) The internal relation of land consolidation and cultivated land abandoned is that abandoned arable land needs to be curbed by land consolidation, but not all abandoned arable land can be curbed by land consolidation. Therefore, the sustainable development of land consolidation needs to change its objective from cultivated land increase to the improvement of agricultural infrastructure.



ID: 874
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Competing land use, biodiversity conservation, agricultural production, climate change, food security

Reconciling forestry and agricultural systems for food security in Nigeria

Kashimana Amanda Ivo

Universität Hamburg, Germany

Population growth, urbanization, agricultural expansion, land use changes, competing land use systems, reduced agricultural yields, biodiversity loss, insecure livelihoods, and constrained economies, with a chain of feedbacks, in a changing climate. What a complex sustainability issue for Nigeria! Although forestry and agricultural systems are important land uses primarily responsible for food security in Nigeria, their targets are contradictory due to a lack of integrated planning. To reconcile this contradiction, we need to know how much agricultural production and biodiversity conservation is needed to attain food security in Nigeria. I estimated the economic, environmental and social implications of changes in climate and land use on biodiversity conservation and agricultural production and on food security using an optimization model programmed in the Generalized Algebraic Modeling System. This bottom-up, partial equilibrium model jointly integrates important natural and societal developments such as i) impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, ii) impacts of population and income growth on domestic food demand, iii) impacts of technological innovation on food supply, and iv) impacts of agricultural and environmental policies on agricultural decisions. I assessed historical land use changes using satellite data for a 40-year period (1978-2017) and estimated agricultural expansion and detailed changes in forest cover. Exploring farm-level adaptation options for alternative climate, policy, and development scenarios, I depicted the motivations, restrictions, and options of farmers in a changing environment and society. It is worth noting that, options for reconciling forestry and agricultural systems varied across Nigeria due to the peculiarities in the various regions. However, central to all regions was the need for an integrated land use system. In general, the results of my research provides important insights in opportunities and tradeoffs between sustainable development objectives including reduction of poverty and malnutrition, preservation of valuable forest ecosystems, and global efforts to slow down climate change.



ID: 257
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: land use change, biodiversity conservation, land system shifts, remote sensing

Land systems, biodiversity and its conservation changes: a case study from the Bieszczady Mountains

Katarzyna Anna Ostapowicz, Katarzyna Staszyńska

Jagiellonian University, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Poland

Land use change is one of the major drivers of biodiversity shifts (loss or gain). Recent intensive progress in satellite data access, e.g. Landsat or Sentinel data dense time series as well as various remote sensing algorithms development, provide great opportunities for better understanding of trajectories and legacies of land cover and land use change. Having also information about land systems shifts, socio-ecological changes and conservation actions in the given region we can address and monitor complex nature of land use change and it’s influence on biodiversity.

In this study, we focus on the Bieszczady Mountains, the range in the northern part of the Carpathians. This regions significantly change over last 100 years, from intensively agriculturally used and overpopulated before the WWII to currently one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in Central Europe with different forms of conservation and also recently again increasing anthropogenic pressure.

To assess biodiversity change, we will use time series of remote sensing data starting in 60’s and includes data from CORONA, Landsat and Sentinel-2 missions. To assess changes in land use and biodiversity, we will analyse trajectories of forest, grasslands, agricultural and built-up areas change in relation to political shifts and socio-economic transformations, and conservation actions in the region.

We will address here following questions: (1) how the use of dense time series of remote sensing data can improve our understanding of land use changes and its influence on biodiversity and conservation, (2) how land use and biodiversity change over last 60 years in the study region, and base on experience from this case study (3) how to address and better understand threats to biodiversity and its conservation.



ID: 877
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: land use change, scenarios, modeling

Land use for Brazil 2050: regional scenarios of land use change and mitigation of climate change

Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra, Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar, Celso von Randow

Brazilian National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Brazil

The integration and understanding of the factors influencing the land use and cover changes in Brazil in the different regions is important to define reliable indicators to guide public policies capable of establishing sustainable development strategies. Thus, Land Use and Change Models (LUCC) are a spatially explicit tool relevant to analyzing current and possible interactions between humans and nature. This work presents the preliminary results: a) LUCC modeling structure for Brazil (LuccME BR), considering the interregional socioecological differences of the Brazilian biomes; b) the possible development of land uses (natural vegetation, natural pasture, planted pasture, agriculture, small scale agriculture and mixed plantations) by 2050, following the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), focusing primarily on SSP1 1.9, 2.6 and 4.5. The results aim to foster discussions of possible sustainability scenarios for Brazil, based on national conservation policies that will contribute to Brazilian international agreements such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).



ID: 467
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Char land, Agroforestry, Livelihoods, Food security, Climate resilience

Potentiality of agroforestry as a multifunctional landscape management in the north-western char land of Bangladesh for food security and eco-friendly agro-ecological farming system

Md Shafiqul Bari1, Rebeka Sultana2

1Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur, Bangladesh; 2Rural Development Academy, Bogra, Bangladesh

Usually char means any accretion in a river course. More than two million people live in the northern char land of Bangladesh, spread across 1,200 villages under ten districts, who mainly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Well planned interacted land use system combined with woody perennials and other production enterprises (agroforestry) can lead to ensure sustainable environment friendly climate resilience land use systems and livelihood option in the said char land. But no systemic investigation about the panorama of agroforestry has been done yet in those chars land. So, a comprehensive study on the potentiality of agroforestry systems in the char land area was done using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Two methods were employed for data collection: structured questionnaire interviews and botanical surveys. Findings revealed that the poverty incidence in the char land was higher than the national level, and the situation was further worsened by the uncertainties and damages caused by floods, river erosion, draught etc. Knowledge about trees of char land farmers was adequate whereas knowledge about agroforestry systems was less. The maximum char land farmers faced problems about free grazing of cattle, lack of quality planting materials and less connection with agricultural extension workers. Leafy short term and climbing type vegetables were more common in the char land but other marketable vegetables were very less. In case of timber tree frequency, eucalyptus was extremely more common (90 %) in the char land whereas the medicinal tree frequency was very less. Shannon-Weiner Biodiversity Index was also less in the char land compared to the nearby main land. The study suggested that proper multiscale landscaping and good agro-product marketing channel of the char land by the support of GOs and NGOs could have set a considerably positive trend in effective alleviation of poverty and ensures food security.



ID: 756
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: organic farm, landscapes, landscape ecological metrics, arthropod

The impacts of landscape fragmentation and farming methods on arthropod diversity in rural area

Chun-Chia Liu, Wan-Yu Lien, Yu-Pin Lin

National Taiwan University, Taiwan

Agricultural landscape is an important influential factor to agricultural ecosystem. The landscape composition and spatial configuration of an area offer creatures different habitats, and thus shape different population dynamics, dispersal as well as habitat selection. However, these habitats around agricultural landscapes might possibly become the sources of pests or enemies, and therefore affect the abundance of pests and enemies in farmlands. Identifying the relationship between agricultural landscape and agricultural ecosystem is therefore the way to integrate and promote agricultural production and biodiversity conservation.

In this study, the Yuanli Township in Miaoli County is selected as the study area and is divided into three sub-areas, including Satoyama area, Satochi area and Satoumi area, according to different landscapes. Besides, the farmlands are divided into organic and conventional farming in the three sub-areas. The FRAGSTATS software is used to calculate the landscape ecological metrics. Then, the arthropods collected from the study area in 2017 and 2018 are categorized into pests, predators, parasitoids, graminivores and neutral species. The Shannon-Wiener index, Simpson's diversity index, and Pielou's evenness are also calculated. Finally, the multivariate analysis, multiple regression, and Spearman’s rank-based partial correlations are adopted to analyze the interaction between agricultural landscapes and arthropods. The result demonstrates that the composition of arthropods is mostly affected by landscapes rather than farming methods. It thus confirms the necessity of managing farmlands on a landscape scale. Moreover, the mean proximity index is selected as focal index to analyze the impacts of different landscape composition on agricultural ecosystems. The result shows that 3,000 meters is the most appropriate radius of the mean proximity index in all the radiuses that we tested. We will carry out further analysis based on this result to establish the affected range of agricultural landscapes and understand deeply the influences that landscapes have on agricultural ecosystems.



ID: 684
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Shandong, land use, urbanization, carbon emission

The study on the carbon emission effect of land use conversion during urbanization in Shandong province

qiuxian wang

Ludong University, China, People's Republic of

Taking 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong province as the research units, this paper takes advantage of the land use database of shandong province in the past 30 years to analyze the mutual transfer matrix of the second-level land use classification. According to the existing carbon emission coefficient, the carbon emission of land use conversion is obtained based on spatial analysis and other functions in Arcgis According to the research,we found that:1.In the course of urbanization development in the past 30 years, the land use types in Shandong Province have changed greatly. After entering the 21st century, the change range has increased, and the change range of urban and rural residential land is the largest.2.There are obvious regional differences in land use changes. The range of land use changes in Jiaodong Peninsula urban agglomeration are much larger than that in Northwest and southeastern Shandong.3.Total carbon emissions, per capital carbon emissions, and per capital carbon emissions showed an upward trend, while the intensity of carbon emissions showed a downward trend.As Shandong coms to a new stage of transformation,In the new period, the management of urban population and land use should pay attention to the systematic diagnosis of new normal and new trend and the comprehensive analysis of kinetic energy transformation, so as to provide scientific basis for the decision-making of new urbanization, urban-rural integration development and rural revitalization.



ID: 374
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Food security, groundwater irrigation, energy use, mixed model, regional policy

The water-energy-food nexus in the context of groundwater irrigation in Bangladesh during 1985-2010: progress and prospects for food security in Bangladesh

IFFAT ARA1,2

1University of Tasmania, Australia; 2Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh

Groundwater is considered as one of the most useful natural resource which contributes to food security globally. This has been extensively used as a main source agricultural water supply in Bangladesh since 1960. Nearly 79 percent of cultivable land is irrigated by groundwater. The annual diesel and electricity consumption for groundwater extraction is costing 4.0 billion and 50 million USD respectively. Apart from energy use, it is alarming that there is a decreasing trend of groundwater availability in many areas of the country. Therefore, sustainable groundwater management is crucial in Bangladesh and a water-energy-food nexus research is required to improve food security in future. In the present study, an advance spatio-temporal analysis was performed to understand water-energy-food nexus. A total of 1251 groundwater wells over the period of 25 years (1985 to 2010) were considered across 23 greater districts of Bangladesh. The analysis demonstrated that groundwater level (mm) has fluctuated in most of areas over the period, whereas energy use has increased. The scoring was employed for different district based on the food production potentials over the past. It was evident from Linear Mixed Model (LMM) results that the district which has high score has got significant negative relationship with groundwater water level. Energy use based on the number of pump use for irrigation has got a significant positive relationship. Overall, the study demonstrated that increased of energy use might improve food security whereas it would need extra energy in future to extract groundwater as the level decreased in some areas. A warning was observed on adverse impact of overuse of groundwater with inappropriate planning and techniques over the study period. A policy including a realistic regional solution was recommended which should be to be adopted in different areas in managing sustainable water-energy-food nexus in Bangladesh for food security.



ID: 469
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Landscape Approach, Mediterranean Ecoregion of Chile, Rural Communities

Landscape approach in the management of threatened territories in the Mediterranean Ecoregion of Chile: GEF Sustainable Mediterranean Communities Project

Loreto Alejandra Álvarez Amado, Claudia Elena Cossio Traverso, Kairusam Vanessa Rodríguez González

GEF Sustainable Mediterranean Communities Project. Ministry of the Environment, Chile and United Nations Development Programmer

The Mediterranean Ecoregion of Chile spans between the Atacama and La Araucanía regions, covering approximately 155,000 km2. This Ecoregion is highly relevant for the development of Chile due to its socio-cultural and economic values. This area is characterized by a high degree of endemism. However, its biodiversity is at risk due to an intensive land use, which is linked to the local industrial activity and the effects of the climate change.

In order to address this problem, the "GEF Sustainable Mediterranean Communities (GEF-SMC) Project”, implemented by the United Nations Development Program and financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), aims at supporting the recovery of degraded soils, the resilience to climate change and the conservation of biodiversity by community organizations. This project follows a "Landscape Approach", considering the different land uses, as well as the social, ecological and economic aspects of the territory. Thus, it aims at providing the local communities and main change-agents with landscape reconstruction tools, hence reconciling the primary productive activities with the territory sustainability.

Within the GEF-SMC project, two initiatives have been developed in the Biobío and Ñuble regions: "Sustainable self-consumption: Rural Agroecological Network" and "Protection and restoration of the native forest in the Cerro Cayumanque influence area". They foster community training and strengthening towards 1) land use planning and good practices in the management of water, soils and agro-biodiversity, as well as 2) the identification of priorities for recovery, restoration and protection of native species in the territory.



ID: 410
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: city size distribution, urban agglomeration, comparative study

A comparative study of city-size distribution among urban agglomerations between China and USA: A perspective based on the fine-scale built-up land

Qingxu Huang, Shuangshuma Yang, Chunyang He, Siyuan Gou

Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of

Comparing the city size distribution of urban agglomerations between China and developing countries is useful for optimizing the distribution of city sizes in China. However, related comparative study is rare due to the lack of data with consistent definition and comparable measure of city size. In this study, we adopted the Global Urban Footprint data to analyze the city size distribution across urban agglomerations in China and USA, using the primate city indices, Pareto coefficients, and Gini coefficients. The results showed that the city size distribution in China’s urban agglomerations were more even than the counterparts in the USA. The average Pareto coefficient in China’s urban agglomerations was 1.16, higher than the value of 0.50 in the USA, whereas the average Gini coefficients in China is approximately 0.31 smaller than that in the USA. The comparison of city-size distribution at the urban agglomeration scale between China and USA confirmed that the evenness of the city size distribution of the urban agglomerations has an inverse U-shape relationship with urbanization rate. In the future, the development of urban agglomerations in China should be further deepened by increasing the aggregation capacities of primate cities and the coordinated development of cities with different sizes.



ID: 434
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: rice friendly farming, TAIWAN, cultivated techniques

Current situation and technology development of rice friendly farming in Miaoli area of Taiwan

Su-Jein Chang

Maioli District Agricultural Research and Extension Station, COA, Taiwan, ROC, Taiwan

Friendly farming was founded on organic cultivation as well as the concept of environmental conservation added. The organic planting style was divided into four groups according to 89 rice organic farmers in Miaoli Area of Taiwan, 2015, the first group for the passive contract type, the second group for active contract type, the third group for the policy leadership type, the fourth group for the idea spontaneous type. In terms of the fourth group, there was essentially an ecological concept and follows organic cultivation, and had the potential for environmentally friendly production. Friendly farming-related technologies covering planning and rational fertilization: fertilizer management planning, including soil fertility and green manure, water quality and rainwater fertility, organic fertilizer dosage projection. Saline screening and warm water treating rice seeds: healthy seedlings are important for organic or friendly farming, using saline screening and warm water treating to get healthy seeds, and low sowing density can reduce the disadvantage of too slender seedlings. Rice and duck cohabitation: transplanting the day that was the most ideal duck hatching day, the duckling rearing about 15 days later, then the ducks, 10~20 duck/0.1 ha, were fed into paddy fields. Application of Azolla: growth rate of Azolla was very fast and could quickly cover the surface of the field in a short time. Nitrogen fixation rate was about 35kg/ha for 35 days of Azolla growth, after burying them into the soil decomposition, then became one of the nutrition sources of crop growth. The method of establishing Azolla in the field area was to dig a small pool in the field corner during the winter fallow period to provide the source of Azolla. On the other hand, to set up shallow ridges around the field could provide a temporary habitat for azolla during the rice growth period. Taking the environmental concept into organic cultivation was very important mentality, in recent years, friendly farming was the combination of the two, expect rice organic cultivation coupled with ecological concept can be a trend, and the promotion of key technologies, such as rice and duck cohabitation, Azolla application, planning and rational fertilization operations. Above all was to promote Taiwan rice farming to another new realm.



ID: 690
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: hedonic pricing;ecological value;Residential price;Donghu;

Ecological value assessment of lake view in urban residential area based on Hedonic Pricing Model

Rongxuan Yang

Huazhong Agricultural University, China, People's Republic of

Because the ecological value of lakes is difficult to measure, it is often ignored by decision makers in the decision-making process.This article explores the use of hedonic pricing as a tool to measures the ecological economic value of Donghu. Our results indicate that the greening rate, the distance to the park and the distance to the East Lake landscape have a significant impact on the residential price, which mean the buyers prefer the residential housing with good surrounding environment.Considering the distance attenuation of Donghu's impact on residential prices, the article divides it into three distance circle layers: 1km, 1-2km, 2-3.5km.The unit area increments of the three distance circle layers are calculated to be 1413.34 yuan/m2, 603.50 yuan/m2, 169.94 yuan/m2, we can know that the first circle layer contains more ecological landscape value;The economic value of Donghu ecological landscape internalization in residential prices is 6.338 billion yuan.These values can balance the relationship between the protection of the East Lake ecological resources and economic development.



ID: 305
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: half earth, biodiversity, social media data, ecosystem service, nature exposure

Using digital nature representations to mitigate potential large scale negative social effects of nature exposure deprivation and for ecosystem service valuation

Joy Petway

National Taiwan University, Taiwan

Critics of the Half Earth proposal note that among other things, social impacts are not addressed, while technological innovation and a free-market are assumed to reduce our negative environmental impacts. Though the rate of anthropogenic biodiversity extinction may be decreased by transdisciplinary conservation efforts in a potential severe biodiversity scarcity scenario, global and social inequalities may still amplify the unaddressed social impacts, such as human isolation from nature so that certain ecosystem services are not publicly accessible to experience firsthand, yet the norm to participate in global ecosystem conservation is everyone’s responsibility. Though exposure to nature (either actual or static representations) increases prosocial behavior, increases nature relatedness feelings, reduces aggression and crime, and may increase cooperation and sustainable behavior, ecosystem service valuations using video on the other hand, is limited--if not absent for cultural ecosystem service valuations. Even though for large-bodied species specifically, rewilding is recommended due to species’ ecological constraints and their survival’s incompatibility with large-scale intensive farming practices, studies show that 'farming and birds' are reconcilable. Thus even in agricultural areas, birds as an indicator of biodiversity levels can be detected in YouTube social media data while some of the derived benefits of biodiversity can be observed in the public comments that nature video viewers leave. This investigation shows the dual benefits of digital representations of nature for ecosystem service valuation and value transfer studies and for managing the potentially negative social effects of perpetual deprivation of exposure to actual nature.



ID: 729
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: land reclamation, coastal land, social ecological system, China

Land reclamation in the coastal area and its impacts on transforming the social-ecological system in the Shanghai coast of China

Ruishan Chen

East China Normal University, China

Land for conservation or development are dilemmas for many places around the world. In coastal regions, reclaiming land from the sea has often been the preferred solution towards meeting the need for more land for urban development. Seaward land reclamation entails the reduction of natural wetland and the formation of artificial land surfaces which are constructed in such a way as to extend outwards over the sea using advanced geoengineering techniques. The process is driven by numerous underlying factors and has manifold impacts. China is a country with the most reclaimed coastal land in the past three decades, and this is most prominently in Shanghai, which has expanded its coastal area by more than 580 km2 in the recent past. Current studies have examined the process of land reclamation, however, how land reclamation has changed social-ecological systems are not well understand. We selected 10 land reclamation projects (places) in Shanghai along the coastline, with different land use planning after the reclamation, and explored the impacts of land reclamation on the change of wetland, fishery, and local livelihood. It shows that the land reclamation projects have changed the habitat for fish growing, and enlarged the distance for fisherman to catch and transport fishery product. The newly created infrastructures after reclamation have transformed the local livelihood and the landscape. The government policies of attracting investment, high education works and tourists have changed the livelihood in the coastal villages from fishery and agriculture based livelihood to service-based livelihood. The fishing villages were transformed into new communities and the old fishing tools, culture and materials were left only in local museums. In the process of urbanization, coastal social-ecological systems are rapidly transformed from fish villages to model villages. Our research provides a framework for understanding coastal social-ecological system change because of land reclamation, and calls for wide social-ecological system assessment of the reclamation projects, other than only focused on the environmental impacts analysis.



ID: 498
200P WHAT DO PEOPLE WANT FROM LAND? (POSTER)
Keywords: Participatory approach; community-based local institutions; mainstreaming climate change adaptation; integrated watershed management; Sustainable Development Goals

Integrated resource management in Himalaya for water, food and energy security in up-stream and down-stream of South Asia under climate change

Bhagwati Joshi1, Prakash Tiwari2

1Government Post Graduate College, Rudrapur, Uttarakhand, India; 2Kumaun University, Nainital, Uttarakhand India

Ecosystem services particularly water, soils and energy originating from Himalaya, sustain nearly 45% global population in densely-populated plains of South Asia. During recent years, traditional land-use pattern has changed mainly in response to population-growth and rapid urbanization leading to disruption of ecosystem services and depletion of land and water resources. Moreover, climate change has stressed Himalayan-ecosystem through substantial decrease in water availability for drinking and food production; and rising frequency and severity of weather extremes, particularly droughts and high-intensity rainfall. These changes are not only disrupting ecosystem services in mountains; but also increasing vulnerability of large population, particularly poor and marginalized to water, food, health, livelihood and energy insecurity in down-streams. Paper presents an integrated watershed management framework interlinking management of land and water resources with climate change adaptation for water, food and energy security and restoration of ecosystem services both in upland and lowland with a case illustration of Ramgad Watershed in Uttarakhand Himalaya, India.

Participatory approach involving a range of local institutions including community-based organizations, government line departments, Non-Governmental Organizations and private sector was adopted. Results indicated implementation of integrated headwater management framework increased forest cover (7%); reduced run-off (11%) and erosion rate (5%); enhanced water generating capacity of land (15%); increased irrigation potential(5%) and micro-hydropower generation (2%) during last 10 years. Moreover, this not only helped in increasing water availability and food production in down-streams; but also provided framework for mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation into integrated land, water and energy management in mountains. This emerging experience is being extended to other watersheds in Himalaya; and in view of this, it is expected to have wider implications in initiating process of regional co-operation for integrated land, water and energy management in trans-boundary river-basins of South Asia, and attaining Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in high mountains.



ID: 387
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Land use policy, land record, governance and sustainability

Land use policy for sustainable development in India: Issues, challenges and prospects

Hari Charan Behera, Ajit Kumar Behura

INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE KOLKATA (GIRIDIH BRANCH), India

India is the seventh biggest country in terms of its geographical area but it is the second largest populated country in the world. It is likely to surpass China’s population to become world’s most populated country if the current demographic trend continues for next few decades. India is also a fastest growing country in terms of economic growth. In the meanwhile, there is increasing infrastructure growth, urbanisation, manufacturing hubs and industrialisation in the country. Therefore, increasing pressure on the existing biomass is inevitable. In such a scenario, if there is no comprehensive land use policy for agriculture and forest resources put in place for practice it will be difficult to control and regulate natural resources effectively, which may eventually affect environment severely in long run. Moreover, it will affect economy of the millions of poor and low income families who are primarily dependent on agriculture, and may lead to food insecurity issue.

In 2013, Government of India had introduced a Land Utilisation Bill after series of brainstorming sessions through consultations and workshops. To give a lateral support to this Bill there was also a national land record modernisation programme which was brought into effect in 2009 for creation and updating of land records by using fresh modern cadastral survey methodology along with revival of institutions and service delivery mechanisms. However, there is no substantial progress in land survey and mapping. Millions of land records are yet to be updated and in many areas fresh cadastral surveys have to be carried out to create new records and establish clear land titles. Over the years there is increasing number of small and marginal landholdings. By 2010-11 India has about 137.8 million total number of holdings of which about 85 percent landholdings are small and marginal size category. The average agricultural landholding has reduced to 1.15 hectares in 2010-11 compared to the average 2. 28 hectares of landholding size in 1970-71. Majority of the small and marginal landholders are poor. Therefore, it requires pro-poor land reform measures, which should not be thought in isolation but in integration with the comprehensive land use policy. Therefore, both social welfare and economic progress are significant part of the future land use planning. It is imperative, the complex geopolitical, legal, socio-cultural and economic position of the country has to be understood carefully for successful land use policy and implementation.

’Land’ is a state subject in the country. Therefore, its utilization, management and governance are mainly vested with the state. India has many complex land laws and diverse land tenure system. The author selectively examines the retrospective policy measures on land use policy or practice. In this paper there are attempts to discuss about issues, challenges and opportunities to introduce land use policy and its effective implementation in the country. The paper has a scope to review neighbouring countries land policies and practices that may be useful to understand India’s perspective in land use policy. It is a need of the hour to see how a big country like India can make its land use policy a model for sustainable development.



ID: 350
100P WHAT ARE THE VISIONS FOR THE PLANETARY LAND SYSTEM? (POSTER)
Keywords: Global urbanization, urban modeling, complexity

Modeling the spatial structure of all human settlements on Earth

Emanuele Strano1, Marco De Nadai2, Filippo Simini3, Thomas Esch4, Mattia Marconcini4

1MindEarth, Switzerland; 2Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science, University of Trento, Trento, Italy; 3Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK; 4German Aerospace Center (DLR), 82234 Wessling, Germany

We present here a study of human settlements structure based on the World Settlement Footprint (WSF) 2015, a novel global dataset outlining HS worldwide at 10m spatial resolution derived with unprecedented accuracy by exploiting both radar and optical satellite high-resolution big data which has been globally validated against 900.000 ground-truth samples labeled by crowdsourcing. The high detail of the WSF 2015 allowed us to perform a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the HS geography and their structural properties by means of complex system approaches. Specifically, we first generated an objective null model based on the probability distribution of HS size. Then, by comparing empirical data against the null model, we carried out a global classification of settlement typologies highlighting areas conurbation or dispersed growth. Most importantly, here we demonstrate that such categorization is not regulated by the density of settlements, thus posing an important benchmark for the understanding of urbanization dynamics. Finally, we also implemented an elementary physical model able to reproduce, at a coarse scale, the main spatial behavior of the settlements' typologies mentioned above. Overall, based on the joint use of big remote-sensing data and complex systems this study provides a novel and remarkable analysis of the collocation, form and structural variability of all HS on Earth and can be of high support to improve current understanding of global urbanization.



ID: 904
300P HOW DO WE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION? (POSTER)
Keywords: jurisdiction, deforestation

The rise of jurisdictional approaches to sustainable land use

Marius von Essen, Eric F Lambin

Stanford University, United States of America

Globally, tropical ecosystems continue to decline despite decades of conservation efforts and the application of a wide range of strategies to halt environmental degradation and deforestation. Based on the recognition of the importance of interactions between government, private sector and civil society actors for sustainability, jurisdictional approaches have gained momentum in recent years and are increasingly proposed to achieve sustainable land use. Due to the rapid rise and wide application of the term, there is little consensus on what constitutes a jurisdictional approach, how they are governed, which objectives are pursued, and how those shall be achieved.

To assess the current state of jurisdictional approaches to sustainable resource use, we compiled a database containing over 70 initiatives from terrestrial tropical regions that are either described as, or contain elements of a jurisdictional approach. By analyzing these initiatives, we derived a definition for jurisdictional approaches and developed a typology based on the initiatives’ focus of intervention. The resulting categories include initiatives whose main focus are: (1) commodities, (2) livelihoods, or (3) carbon stocks, or combinations thereof. We derived a set of variables from our definition, which we subsequently applied to the cases in our database to analyze which qualify as jurisdictional approaches. This resulted in initiatives being classified as: (a) true jurisdictional approaches, (b) near-jurisdictional approaches, (c) traditional public or private policies, or (d) data deficient. In total, we gathered initiatives from 31 countries worldwide, with Sub-Saharan-Africa (23), South-America (20), and South-East Asia (18) being the most featured regions.

This work helps to better understand the emerging landscape of policy initiatives labeled as jurisdictional approaches to sustainable land use.