Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
203RB: Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient - Part B
Thursday, 25/Apr/2019:
10:45am - 12:15pm

Session Chair: Torben Birch-Thomsen
Session Chair: Anton Van Rompaey
Session Chair: Jasper van Vliet
Location: MB-201
Main Building, room 201, second floor, east wing, 154 (+22) seats
Session Topics:
What do people want from land?

Session Abstract

Rural land systems and urban land systems have often been studied in isolation as if both systems exist independently. Yet, these systems are related in many different ways, either because they’re mixed in space, or because they depend on each other for services. At the same time, these interactions might yield new challenges related to the competing and /or increased claims for land, and thus to sustainable land use systems. In this session we will discuss studies that have this relation between rural and urban land, local or over distance) as a focal point. Specific topics include, but are not restricted to, analyses of the rural-urban continuum and related land use processes (such as including peri-urbanization, rural infill, sprawl, counter-urbanization), analyses of flows between rural and urban areas (including people, food, people, other material, but also services, such as recreation, aesthetics, flood protection,), changing rural land-use activities related to urban markets (including diversification of rural economies, functioning of small urban centres as markets, migration flows related to labor opportunities, and smallholder changes towards market production and agrifood systems), and studies on planning and management of these relations and interactions.

Session Organizers: Jasper van Vliet, Anton Van Rompaey, and Torben Birch-Thomsen

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Full talk
ID: 546 / 203RB: 1
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: city-region system, food sufficiency, mixed methods, modelling, Mediterranean

Assessing food sufficiency of city-regions. A multi-level methodology to highlight interactions between Mediterranean land systems and local food systems

Esther Sanz Sanz

INRA, France

In the current global context characterized by urban growth and concerns about food security and safety, the new geography of food looks at the possibilities of reconnecting food production and consumption to increase the food sufficiency of city-regions. Furthermore, in the urban-rural gradient, the development of farming systems functionally linked to the city is enhanced by the proximity of urban areas. Which land systems are being affected by these processes and which farming systems should be considered when enhancing local food systems?

This challenge requests to think city-region food systems in a multi-level approach. From a scientific point of view, there is still no clear method to link different levels of analysis while, at the same time and from an operational point of view, the linkage is needed to integrate the local vision from stakeholders into regional policies and management of food systems. This is especially urgent in Mediterranean context, where food security is threatened by global change and urbanisation process.

This presentation shows the first results of applying an original methodology to investigate the interactions between land systems dynamics and city-regions food systems, focusing on local food supply and local food chains. In the framework of Divercrop project, and based on an abductive reasoning and mixed methods, we associate 2 levels of research in an iterative process: a) an empirical research combining fieldwork and database analysis, developed at NUTS-3 level on 8 study cases representative of the diversity of Mediterranean land systems (in Algeria, France, Italia, Malta, Portugal, Spain and Tunisia), b) a modelling approach connecting the local level of the city-region with both the upper regional level and with the whole Western Mediterranean Basin level (WMB). The connection between local and WMB levels will be mainly made by the identification of the food system stakeholders’ capacity to develop proximity food systems enhancing local food supply, focusing on changing farming and land-use activities related to urban markets.

The presentation will highlight the synergies and trade-offs between land systems dynamics at WMB level and city-region food systems, that could be useful for policy making and planning.

Full talk
ID: 857 / 203RB: 2
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: urbanization; agriculture; urban teleconnections; land-use intensity; market access

Links between urbanization and agricultural land-use intensity across the Global South

Fanny Boudet1, Graham MacDonald1, Brian Robinson1, Leah Samberg2

1Department of Geography, McGill University, Canada; 2Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota & Rainforest Alliance, Missoula, USA

Research on how urbanization affects rural agriculture has typically focused on loss of farmland due to urban expansion. However, more indirect pathways that could link urbanization to rural agriculture, including enhanced connectivity through rural-urban migration and growing market access, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess whether greater rural-urban connectivity is associated with changes in agricultural management across the Global South. We first use a multivariate clustering approach with spatial data on land use, demographics, rural market access, and rural population change (a proxy for outmigration) to define a series of rural-urban connectivity typologies. Summarizing key agricultural outcome variables (average cereal crop yields, % attainable yields realized, and cropping intensity) within the typologies shows that locations of greater overall connectivity (market access and population change) tend to be associated with higher cereal yields and yield attainment. We then apply these clustering results to develop a set of hypotheses regarding the relationship between rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land use intensity and test these by using propensity score matching to compare locations with similar sociodemographic and land use characteristics. When controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, agricultural land, and population density, locations in Asia with high rural market access, negative rural population change, and high built-up areas have significantly higher yields and yield attainments as well as greater nitrogen application rates and irrigation. Results are less consistent at the Global South scale, but greater rural-urban connectivity and urbanization tend to be associated with higher yields and agricultural inputs. Our empirical findings demonstrating links between past urbanization and agricultural change across the Global South stress the need to assess how projected future urban growth could drive changes in agricultural management at different scales.

Full talk
ID: 783 / 203RB: 3
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: urbanization, global land use change, livelihoods, agricultural productivity, megaurban regions

Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands

Christopher Bren d'Amour1,2,3, Femke Reitsma4, Giovanni Baiocchi5, Stephan Barthel6,7, Burak Güneralp8, Karl-Heinz Erb9, Helmut Haberl9, Felix Creutzig1,2, Karen Seto3

1Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change MCC; 2Technische Universitaet Berlin; 3Yale University; 4Canterbury University; 5University of Maryland; 6University of Gävle; 7Stockholm University; 8Texas A&M University; 9Institute of Social Ecology Vienna

Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world’s cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8–2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3–4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.

Full talk
ID: 297 / 203RB: 4
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: gradient analysis, spatial indicators, urbanity, urban coefficient, functional urban areas, cross-boundary landscapes

Beyond urban-rural dichotomies: Measuring urbanisation degrees in central European landscapes using the technomass as an explicit indicator

Luis Inostroza1, Zoé Hamstead2, Marcin Spyra3, Salman Qureshi4

1Ruhr University Bochum, Germany; 2Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Architecture and Planning, University at Buffalo, State University of New York; 3Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany; 4Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Urbanisation is transforming landscapes across the world. As the urban matrix is extending across all landscape types, new spatial configurations have blurred the former contrast between urban and non-urban land uses. The spatial complexity of urbanisation challenges current landscape-scale assessments based on land cover methods and standard Boolean classifications of urban-rural. In this study, we quantify urbanisation as a continuous spatial process based on Technomass, a three-dimensional indicator that accounts for anthropogenic material stocks in the form of buildings and technical infrastructures. The aim is to perform a spatially explicit quantification of urbanisation degrees across the landscape by more accurately capturing the volumes of different types of anthropogenic stocks. The use of the technomass as an explicit indicator can more accurately describe the complex spatial structure of urbanisation. This allows a robust characterisation of urbanisation degrees at the landscape scale, useful for different ecological assessments. The research was conducted in the functional urban areas of Ostrava (Czech Republic) and Katowice (Poland), where cross-boundary asymmetric landscape configurations can be observed. This spatial characterisation of urbanisation can help to improve innovative and inter-disciplinary approaches used in landscape ecology, urban ecology, industrial ecology and spatial planning.

Full talk
ID: 275 / 203RB: 5
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: urban, rural, linkages, Nigeria, Africa

Using medium and small towns to strengthen urban-rural linkages in Nigeria

Geoffrey Nwaka

Abia State University, Uturu, Nigeria, Nigeria

The arguments in Nigeria over whether the urban or the rural areas should be given greater priority in national development appear somewhat misplaced and unhelpful because the urban and rural areas are mutually interdependent, with many complex links and interactions between them through the constant movements of people, goods, money, ideas and information from one to the other. The paper considers ways to overcome the traditional divide between urban and rural planning and development, and by so doing achieve a more balanced pattern of development. It focuses on the promotion of small and intermediate urban centers as an appropriate middle course which combines the advantages of urban as well as rural approaches to development. Medium and small towns are uniquely placed in the urban-rural interface to foster mutually beneficial linkages between cities and the countryside. More than half of the urban population in Africa today lives in small and intermediate cities, and current research suggest that the increase in urban population expected in the next 20 years will occur in towns of this size group, hence the urgent need to take their growth, planning and links with the rural areas fully into account in the development effort. The paper considers the policy, planning and investment implications of promoting medium and small towns as an essential component of Nigerian national policy for human settlements. Particular emphasis is placed on the imperative of political and administrative decentralization to strengthen local governance; the need to improve the infrastructure and services that connect producers and consumers in rural and urban areas; reforms to support rural agriculture and trade, and to remove needless restrictions on the operation of the private sector, especially the informal sector and small-scale enterprises.

Flash talk
ID: 675 / 203RB: 6
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: Urbanization, land change, Intensity Analysis, emerging cities, stationary

Land change dynamics: insights from intensity analysis applied to an african emerging city

Felicia O. Akinyemi1, Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr2, Ademola K. Braimoh3

1Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Botswana; 2School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester MA, USA; 3World Bank, Washington DC, USA

Land change in Kigali, Rwanda, is examined using Intensity Analysis, which measures the temporal stationarity of changes among categories. Maps for 1981, 2002 and 2014 were produced that show the land categories Built, Vegetated and Other, which is composed mainly of croplands and bare surfaces. Land change accelerated from the first time interval (1981–2002) to the second time interval (2002–2014), as increased human and economic activities drove land transformation. During the first interval, Vegetated showed net loss whereas Built showed net gain, in spite of a small transition directly from Vegetated to Built. During the second interval, Vegetated showed net gain whereas Built showed nearly equal amounts of gross loss and gross gain. The gain of Built targeted Other during both time intervals. A substantial portion of overall change during both time intervals consisted of simultaneous transitions from Vegetated to Other in some locations and from Other to Vegetated in other locations.

Flash talk
ID: 375 / 203RB: 7
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: Ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate, Landsat TM-5, Geographic Information System, Peri-urban, India

Peri-urban dynamics in India: a synergistic approach to estimate the Ratio of Land Consumption Rate to Population Growth Rate (SDG:11.3.1) at village level using census and satellite data

Ankit Kumar Sikarwar

International Institute for Population Sciences, India

Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) are designed to achieve the development that ensures a livable future of the earth. At global and national levels the data about SDG indicators are easy to derive and analyze, but while dealing with small area measurements the same becomes challenging. This study analyses the nature of relationship and association between the SGD indicator-11.3.1: the ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate (LCRPGR) with selected socioeconomic and demographic variables. Total 712 villages surrounding Ahmedabad city of India are considered as a unit of analysis. The study integrates population census data of 1991, 2001 and 2011 and Landsat TM-5 data for the land estimation for respective years using GIS (Geographic Information System). The villages are categorized into three proximity groups according to their distance to the main city to see the urban impact. The correlation coefficients and results of the multivariate analysis suggest a significant relationship between socio-economic-demographic variables and LCRPGR. Also, the distance to the main urban city found important factor determining the changes in the LCRPGR and other variables. The villages which are facing significant challenges in terms of population and land dynamics are identified for future policy focus.