Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
358N: Gridded population and settlement data and models for integrative analysis of land systems
Wednesday, 24/Apr/2019:
4:15pm - 5:45pm

Session Chair: Andrea Gaughan
Session Chair: Catherine Linard
Session Chair: Alessandro Sorichetta
Session Chair: Forrest R. Stevens
Session Chair: Stefan Leyk
Session Chair: Greg Yetman
Location: UniS-A -126
UniS building, room A-126, basement, 80 seats
Session Topics:
How do we support transformation?

Session Abstract

Sustainability initiatives that target coupled land system dynamics rely on data products that provide spatio-temporal information about land cover, land use activities, human population distributions and movements. Specifically, there is a need to integrate settlement, infrastructure, and population data to improve models that support monitoring, planning, and decision making efforts for sustainable development, conservation and land management. While many data products exist at various spatial and temporal resolutions, gridded, raster-based products that represent settlement patterns, population density and socio-demographic characteristics have rapidly advanced and proliferated in recent decades. We propose an interactive session of panelists that represent data producers and data users of gridded population and settlement products and are experts in their respective fields. Short presentations will highlight various data products and set up an interactive discussion with the land system science community on issues of endogeneity, temporal-explicitness, and spatial conformity in these data products. Discussion will center on scale and projection considerations for user-specific applications, continued method development and advancement for integrating these products in land change studies. An important part of this discussion will be the analysis, treatment and integration of various uncertainty measures as one of the most persistent challenges not only in land use science.

Session Organizers: Andrea Gaughan, Catherine Linard, Alessandro Sorichetta, Forrest Stevens, Stefan Leyk, Deborah Balk, and Greg Yetman

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ID: 508 / 358N: 1
358N Gridded population and settlement data and models for integrative analysis of land systems
Keywords: settlement, uncertainty, spatio-temporal analysis, urban people, urban land

Analysis of settlement and population changes in urban settings of the U.S over more than 100 years

Stefan Leyk1, Deborah Balk2

1University of Colorado Boulder; 2Baruch College, City University of New York

This paper will examine changes in the built-environment and how they relate to changes in population, in particular urban population in the United States. It will use new data sets that allow investigation of changes in built structures since the 19th century. These data will be integrated with remote-sensing based global settlement layers representing the period of 1975-present, and census data (1990-2010). By comparing these disparate data sets, we aim to gain a much fuller understanding of population and settlement dynamics in urban areas, as well as how land-based and population-based urban measures correspond or not in other, data-poor regions.

ID: 491 / 358N: 2
358N Gridded population and settlement data and models for integrative analysis of land systems
Keywords: gridded population models, random forest, demographics, global, remote sensing, GIS

Harmonizing global gridded population outputs over space and time

Andrea Gaughan1, Alessandro Sorichetta2, Forrest Stevens1, Greg Yetman4, Catherine Linard3, Maksym Bondarenko2, Alessandra Carioli2, Sophie Hanspal2, Theo Hilber2, Graeme Hornby2, William H.M. James2, David Kerr2, Chris Lloyd2, Jane Mills4, Jeremiah Nieves2, Kristine Nilsen2, Carla Pezzulo2, Linda Pistolesi4, Natalia Tejedor-Garavito2, Nikolaos Vesnikos2, Adelle Wigley2, Andrew Tatem2

1University of Louisville; 2University of Southampton, UK; 3University of Namur; 4Columbia University

The WorldPop Global data collection includes population surfaces for total populations as well as breakdowns by 5-year age groups and sex, at annual time-steps between 2000 and 2020, with a spatial resolution of 3 arc seconds. Seamless global layers are implemented using consistent analytical methods and are accompanied by metadata outlining inputs and quality assessments. The unique, high-resolution and value open data source is created to meet stakeholder needs. The population maps are discussed in the context of globally available data for how such data is used for better monitoring, planning, and decision making regarding development, conservation and land management.

ID: 555 / 358N: 3
358N Gridded population and settlement data and models for integrative analysis of land systems
Keywords: Population density, Africa, urban, spatial resolution, data fusion

Mapping built-up and population densities in African cities

Catherine Linard1, Yann Forget2, Taïs Grippa2, Jessica E. Steele3, Eléonore Wolff2, Michal Shimoni4

1Université de Namur, Belgium; 2Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium; 3University of Southampton, UK; 4Royal Military Academy, Belgium

Sub-Saharan African cities are experiencing fast urban growth associated with massive urban poverty and increasing intra-urban inequalities. Knowing how the population is distributed within highly heterogeneous cities is very important to help urban research and land management. While very-high resolution built-settlement layers are expected to significantly increase the accuracy of population density predictions, their acquisition and processing costs reduce their use for population mapping in low income countries. This paper will evaluate the potentialities of built-up layers extracted from a fusion of freely-available medium-resolution optical and SAR data for urban population mapping in sub-Saharan Africa.

ID: 865 / 358N: 4
358N Gridded population and settlement data and models for integrative analysis of land systems
Keywords: population modelling, census data, human populations, settlement mapping, land change

Mapping people to pixels, an overview of population modelling approaches and challenges

Forrest R. Stevens1, Andrea E. Gaughan1, Catherine Linard2, Alessandro Sorichetta3, Stefan Leyk4, Deborah Balk5, Gregory Yetman6, Robert S. Chen6

1University of Louisville, United States of America; 2Université de Namur, Belgium; 3University of Southampton, United Kingdom; 4University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America; 5City University of New York, United States of America; 6Columbia University, United States of America

The research presented in our session represents both users and producers of gridded population data. Through a high-level discussion of the approaches that produce such data, as well as the methodological considerations for how these data are used, we hope to facilitate an understanding of the utility and limitations of gridded population data for the land system and land change communities. A discussion of bottom-up, top-down, and hybrid modelling techniques for gridded data will be presented. We will also highlight data and techniques for evaluating which data products, under what constraints may be best suited for common applications.

ID: 395 / 358N: 5
358N Gridded population and settlement data and models for integrative analysis of land systems
Keywords: GHG emission inventories, CO2, Gridded population data, South-East Asia

South-East Asia population and CO2 emission mapping

Alessandro Sorichetta1, Andrea Gaughan2, Forrest Stevens2, Laura Krauser2, Greg Yetman3, Tomohiro Oda4, Rostyslav Bun5

1WorldPop, University of Southampton, United Kingdom; 2University of Louisville, USA; 3CIESIN, Columbia University, USA; 4NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, USA; 5Lviv Polytechnic National University/WSB University

Greenhouse gases emission inventories represent the primary tool to monitor emission trends over time at country level. However, such inventories do not provide any insight about the subnational spatial distribution of the emissions, which is needed to successfully implement the UNFCCC. The results obtained by using night-time light data for modeling the spatial distribution of CO2 emissions in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia are compared with high-resolution gridded population distribution data for 2000-05-10. This is done to assess errors/uncertainties in the CO2 spatial model outputs that are otherwise difficult to quantify due to the lack of physical measurements.

ID: 514 / 358N: 6
358N Gridded population and settlement data and models for integrative analysis of land systems
Keywords: population, settlement, modeling

The high resolution settlement layer: improving population allocation methods

Greg Yetman1, Parmanand Sinha2, Andrea Gaughan2, Forrest Stevens2, Jane Mills1

1Columbia University, United States of America; 2University of Louisville

Rural population distribution is often neglected in global and large-region modeled population datasets. Version 1 of the High Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL) combines detailed (0.5m) optical imagery data with census estimates to create a detailed population surface that includes small rural settlements using simple proportional allocation. An evaluation of improved methods for a more realistic allocation of population based on the HRSL detailed settlement extents and additional spatial predictors are presented. The comparative strengths and weaknesses of the methods are discussed and the relative importance of the predictors used is presented.

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