Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
360N: Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward
Time:
Friday, 26/Apr/2019:
1:15pm - 2:45pm

Session Chair: Zhanli Sun
Session Chair: Daniel Müller
Session Chair: Birgit Müller
Session Chair: Martha Marijke Bakker
Session Chair: Dawn Cassandra Parker
Location: MB-201
Main Building, room 201, second floor, east wing, 154 (+22) seats
Session Topics:
How do we support transformation?

Session Abstract

Land systems are coupled social-environmental systems (SES) that are characterized by intrinsic complexity entailing non-linear dynamics, self-organization, multi-scale feedbacks, and emergence. Modelling the complex interactions and feedbacks in SES is pivotal to understand the essence of land-system behaviors and characteristics, such as regime shifts, path dependence, and system resilience, and has profound policy implications in transforming land systems towards the SDGs. It is particularly challenging to model interactions between the social and environmental sub-systems in an integrated framework due to, for example, the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales. So far, most SES models are unbalanced and loosely-coupled with a focus on one of the sub-systems. Variables from the environmental sub-system often merely serve as boundary conditions or constraining factors in a predominately social model, or the other way around; dynamic interactions between human and environment are to date weakly implemented.

The goal of this session is to assess the current status, identify challenges and opportunities, and discuss new trends in modelling human-environment interactions in land systems. Session topics will cover the following theories and concepts:

· Human-environmental systems; complexity; complex system thinking

· Regime shifts, tipping points, and critical transition of land systems

· Path dependence, lock-in, path breaking

· System dynamics; differential/difference equations; agent-based models

· Human decision-making; integrated modelling.

Followed by a general introduction, we will have four panelists to give 5-minute flash talks to set the scene for the discussion. We will engage the audience using crowd-sourcing methods such as instant polling with Poll Everywhere and Slido to ensure that all thoughts of the audience are heard and to enable active participation and engagement. Depending on the size of the audience, we will use World Café or Fishbowl to facilitate open discussions on the key questions identified. We will strive to jointly produce a position paper on potential ways forward in SES models of land systems (TBD).

Session Organizers: Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller, Birgit Müller, Martha Bakker, Pytrik Reidsma, and Dawn Parker


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Presentations
ID: 713 / 360N: 1
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Modelling social-ecological systems for providing management and policy recommendations – a system of systems approach

Christine Fürst1, Martin Schultze1, Benjamin Kofi Nyarko2, Mahamadou Belem3, Cédric Gaucherel4

1MLU Halle Wittenberg, Germany; 2Cape Coast University; 3Université Nazi Boni; 4CIRAD, AMAP laboratory, INRA

A challenge in using SES-models is to provide approaches that incorporate various scales of intervention and enable the use of scenarios to assess decision impacts. As land systems are too complex to reflect all their interactions within one “world-model”, approaches that use model compounds are requested. The project SESASA intends to build a system of systems by bundling a couple of models. These comprise spatially explicit, actor explicit and highly theoretical systemic approaches using Cellular Automata, Boolean and Bayesian Belief Networks and Agent-Based Models in combination with qualitative and quantitative MCA-approaches to address the range of systemic responses within SES.



ID: 435 / 360N: 2
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Receiving feedback from the environment

Martha Marijke Bakker, Maaike Happel, Diana Giebels

Wageningen University, Netherlands, The

Feedbacks from ecological to social systems are often weaker and more complex than we think. This is because (i) ecological effects on individual decision makers are often small and unclear; (ii) people are reluctant to change their opinion; and (iii) opinions are shaped by a societal process that far exceeds the level of a few individuals. This is challenging for simulating SES using ABMs, as it involves dynamics at scale levels that most ABMs cannot handle. Moreover, it is not very rewarding for the scientist to go through a lot of trouble, only to weaken the feedbacks that constitute our conceptual SES.



ID: 696 / 360N: 3
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

The state of the art of agent-based land market models

Dawn Cassandra Parker

University of Waterloo, Canada

This flash talk will review the state-of-the art around agent-based land market models (ABM-LM). It will briefly review the importance of land markets in shaping land-use change both locally and globally, in both rural and urban contexts. It will then discuss a recently developed agent-based land market meta-modelling framework, which nests six state-of-the-art ABM-LMMs. Finally, barriers to broader adoption of ABM-LMMs are discussed, as well as proposals of ways forward.



ID: 627 / 360N: 4
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Ways forward to integrate human decisions in land system models

Birgit Müller

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

The adequate incorporation of human decisions is seen as a major challenge for land systems modelling. In my flash talk I point out ways forward by calling for coordinated efforts of the science community. Here, I am inspired by insights from different endeavours: (i) using agent-based models to apply and test social theories on land use decision making and its contribution to theory building, (ii) exploring the use of building blocks for decision modules, and (iii) learning from environmental models about the upscaling of socio-environmental models that include the human decision part more explicitly.



 
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