Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Location: MB-120
Main Building, room 120, first floor, west wing, 80 (+14) seats
Date: Wednesday, 24/Apr/2019
11:15am - 12:45pm210R: Mountain futures: Innovative potentials and trade-offs between food security, climate change, and biodiversity conservation in the global highlands?
Session Chair: Robert J. Zomer
Session Chair: Jianchu Xu
Full talk
ID: 244 / 210R: 1
210R Mountain futures: Innovative potentials and the trade-offs between food security, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation in the global highlands?
Keywords: Climate change, hydrology, environmental stratification, geospatial modeling, mountains, sustainable development, biodiversity conservation

Projected climate change impacts on montane terrestrial ecosystems and the challenges for global mountains

Robert J. Zomer1, Jianchu Xu1,2, MIngching Wang1

1Center for Mountain Ecosystems, Kunming Institute of Botany - Chinese Academy of Sciences, China, People's Republic of; 2World Agroforesty Center (ICRAF) - East and Central Asia Regional Office

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the mountains all across the globe is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, mountain farming and pastoral systems, and protected areas throughout these regions. A bioclimatic stratification and geospatial modeling approach based on the Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS) and an in-situ water balance model has been used to explore impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology and spatial distribution of bioclimatic conditions on montane ecosystems, with particular focus on the highly populated Asian Highlands, notably along the great arc of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush, Pamir, Tien Shan and Altai-Saiyan Ranges, as well as across the vast, high elevation Tibetan Plateau, with case studies presented from southwestern China, Nepal, Bhutan, and Central Asia. Projected climate change impacts were modeled for the full range of potential emission scenarios for the year 2050, based upon an ensemble of 13 Earth System Models produced by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Results from the geospatial modeling and analysis show that large spatial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected across all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones, expansion of the lower elevation zones and warmer ecoregions into higher elevations, decreases in area of the highest elevation biomes and ecoregions, and the disappearance of habits with highly specific sets of bioclimatic conditions. Impacts on mountain agroecosystems include upward shifting of agroecological zones, disruption of cropping calendars, decreases in chilling hours, and the increasing abundance of invasive species. High levels of biotic perturbance are indicated for the foreseeable future. The effectiveness of protected area networks in the region is also reviewed in light of climate change. Overall, results indicate a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies for montane regions across Asia, with early onset.

Full talk
ID: 697 / 210R: 2
210R Mountain futures: Innovative potentials and the trade-offs between food security, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation in the global highlands?
Keywords: Biodiversity; Climate Change; Informed Policy- and Decision-Makings; Local Practices; Mountain

Enhancing landscape restoration and ecosystem resilience for meeting food and livelihood demands, lessons from the mountains of ethiopia

Kiros Meles Hadgu

World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Ethiopia

Resilient landscapes and biodiversity conservation are important for improving food systems and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. However, landscapes in Ethiopia are threatened by major challenges including land degradation, loss of biodiversity, climate change and population pressure. These affect ecosystem health and decrease buffering capacities of mountain communities and ecosystems leading to increasing proneness to shocks and resulting to yield variability, crop failure and food insecurity. To address these challenges, a research was conducted in northern Ethiopia to identify key drivers affecting resilience of landscapes and their impacts on (agro) biodiversity, soil fertility, farming practices agricultural productivity and livelihoods. Satellite images were used to analyse land use/land cover (LULC) changes, and their associated impacts. A multi-scale analysis approach was used to analyse the data. Classified satellite images, field measurements and surveys at landscape level indicated that inclusive and community-led restorations significantly (<0.05) enhanced resilience of mountain ecosystem expressed in terms of improved rehabilitation of degraded mountains (by 78%) and reclamation of degraded gullies (by 82%); four fold increase in vegetation cover (e.g., species density increased from 970 to 3310 individual plants ha-1); more honey bee production (from 5 to 75 kg hive-1 year-1); improved year round water availability (e.g., reduced women’s travel distance to fetch water from 5 to 1.5 km); increased feed availability (from 3 to 7 months year-1); more rural employments and better income (from below poverty line to $140 household-1year-1). Farms building on local mountain knowledge and adopting improved practices had significant (<0/05) changes in LULC and had significantly lower overall soil erosion (P < 0.05), improved soil fertility (P< 0.01) and higher crop yields (P<0.05). The results of this research contribute to support designs of informed policy- and decision-makings through providing long-term information, historical trends and insights on the key drivers of degradation and appropriate restoration options. This enhances national and regional level scaling ups of evidenced based, inclusive and community-led landscape restorations for accelerating ecosystem resilience and biodiversity conservation that play critical role in transforming system level food production and community livelihoods in Ethiopia and across a number of countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa.

Flash talk
ID: 835 / 210R: 3
210R Mountain futures: Innovative potentials and the trade-offs between food security, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation in the global highlands?
Keywords: transdisciplinary approach; mountain communities; innovative pathways; sustainability

The role of science in developing innovative pathways for nature and people: A transdisciplinary approach applied in Mount Kenya, East Africa

Sarah-Lan Mathez-Stiefel

Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Portugal

Achieving human well-being for mountain communities based on finite natural resources requires new partnerships between science, policy, civil society, and the private sector. New pathways towards sustainability and innovative strategies are required to tackle the pressing issues of climate change, loss of biodiversity, and land for human development. But what can and should be the role of science in such an endeavour? In this presentation, with the example of Mount Kenya in East Africa, we will present a transdisciplinary approach that brought together researchers, practitioners and local actors in the framework of a new initiative for nature and people. As part of this process, a co-design workshop was held with the aim to build a joint narrative among the participants about transformative pathways for sustainability in Mount Kenya. Thematically, the workshop brought together perspectives on mountain social-ecological systems and their dynamics, on actors and their power relations, and on existing innovations and major transformative trends. The workshop’s objectives were to: 1) identify and select promising transformative interventions that can be tested by the initiative; 2) develop a common understanding on the main socio-economic and environmental issues, knowledge and data needs, and knowledge products that can be jointly developed by initiative’s partners; and 3) co-design a science-society-policy platform that can support the selected transformative interventions. The workshop adopted a participatory and bottom-up approach in order to ensure that the needs, visions, and innovative potentials from local partners, practitioners and direct beneficiaries were fully recognized and harnessed in the design of the initiative.

Full talk
ID: 814 / 210R: 4
210R Mountain futures: Innovative potentials and the trade-offs between food security, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation in the global highlands?
Keywords: Adaptation, Alps, collaboration network, innovation, mountain, pathway, vision.

Assessing collaboration networks to support systemic innovation in mountain areas

Victor Blanco, Tobias Luthe, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Mountain areas are increasingly affected by diverse drivers of change, such as climate change, migration, evolving local to international policies, and land acquisition by non-resident actors. These create the need for mountain communities to adapt in order to make the best of the coming changes or avoid their negative impacts. Mountain stakeholders can develop adaptation pathways to reach their desired vision of the future, as part of regional planning processes. The development and implementation of effective adaptation pathways requires innovative and adaptive communities. Collaboration networks are central to achieve these. Network structure, and the characteristics of network actors and ties (such as information flows) determine the potential of communities for social learning, innovation and adaptation. As part of the Mountain Pathways project to develop pathways for adaptation to global change in the Swiss and French Alps, visions for the year 2040 were co-created by local and regional stakeholders. At the begin of this participatory process, collaboration networks were mapped and quantified. We find that meeting the vision developed in France will require systemic innovation to accomplish the necessary regime change. In Switzerland, however, innovation that is incremental and cumulative is required to support the persistence of the current regime. Upon analysis of the structure and components of their collaboration networks, we illustrate the innovative capacity of the two mountain communities and discuss it in the context of the needs for innovation identified in the visions. On this basis, we propose adjustments to the collaboration networks in order to facilitate the achievement of visions.

Flash talk
ID: 841 / 210R: 5
210R Mountain futures: Innovative potentials and the trade-offs between food security, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation in the global highlands?
Keywords: Resilience, vulnerability, teleconnections, mountain economy, climate change

Increasing resilience for some, vulnerability for others? Rapid rural development generates resilience paradoxes in Indian Eastern Himalaya

Reinmar Seidler

Univ Massachusetts Boston, United States of America

Concepts of resilience and vulnerability are frequently invoked in research on social-environmental systems undergoing change. How should we define and measure resilience, when rural economies are in flux and local weather patterns changing? Resilience depends significantly on the individual’s placement within particular contexts – but in many regions, the context itself is changing rapidly.

In rapidly-developing mountain regions, the transformation of rural-urban linkages depends on tele-connectivity. Rural road-networks, increasing vehicular transport and cell-phone/internet connectivity are the substrates upon which economic development is built. These connections facilitate the mutual flow of goods/services between urban areas and village hinterlands; enable information-exchange between highlands and lowlands; stimulate the growth of educational and employment bonds across distance; and constitute keys to growth of the tourism industry – itself key to economic development in many mountain areas.

But given rapidly multiplying symptoms of climate change, what are the longer-term implications of tele-connections for mountain economies? Do they represent resilience gains – or a set of new vulnerabilities? Are they both at once, with impacts distributed differentially across communities at household or even individual levels? If so, how should we assess overall societal increases/decreases in vulnerability/resilience? What kinds of development should be promoted? These questions are central to district-level decision-making – the level at which locally-applicable environmental policy is made, and for which coherent scenarios are needed.

Here we present data-sets from a long-term action-research program in Eastern Himalaya. In 2017, a total strike for 3 months cut all communications and transport connections between Darjeeling urban area, its hinterlands, and the plains. The acute dependence of urban neighborhoods on tele-connectivity was strikingly highlighted. New, informal markets for essential items emerged as villagers devised work-around strategies to supply “cut-off” urban neighborhoods, sometimes at below-cost. Paradoxically, the crisis both generated new town-village linkages and simultaneously sharpened the economic dominance of urban markets.

Flash talk
ID: 366 / 210R: 6
210R Mountain futures: Innovative potentials and the trade-offs between food security, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation in the global highlands?
Keywords: ecosystem-based adaptation, traditional knowledge, economic innovation, Nepal, Peru

Using traditional knowledge, participatory approaches, and ecosystem-based adaptation to drive innovation in mountains

Erin Holly Gleeson1, Jorge Recharte1, Katherine Blackwood2

1The Mountain Institute, United States of America; 2International Union for Conservation of Nature

Societal adaptation to the consequences of rising global temperatures will require measures that simultaneously reduce poverty and protect or restore biodiversity and ecosystem services. This is especially true in mountains, where communities and ecosystems are already more vulnerable to natural hazards, over-exploitation, and degradation, and where the consequences of global warming are already magnified. Ecosystem-based approaches that help people adapt to climate change, especially when combined with innovative solutions that provide short- and medium-term economic benefits, are particularly promising in mountain regions, where other approaches are often limited by the steep topography, marginality, inaccessibility, and lack of representation that characterize mountains.

In this talk, we will share some examples of ecosystem-based adaptation combined with economic innovation that are reinvigorating parts of highland Peru and remote communities in Nepal. In both countries, these innovations are grounded in traditional knowledge and made successful by strong local partnerships and participatory approaches. However, we will also discuss the challenges we continue to face in building and maintaining these opportunities, namely stable linkages to international markets and the research basis to scale up implementation.

Full talk
ID: 444 / 210R: 7
114R The deep history of global land use change – needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding of socio-ecological systems
Keywords: Pollen-based land-cover, past landscape burning, impacts of changing monsoon, biodiversity changes in its tropical hotspot, Anthropocene

Assessing the resilience of the Western Ghats agroforestry landscapes towards anthropogenic fires and monsoonal variability: Implications for sustaining biodiversity in one of its prime hotspots

Charuta J. Kulkarni1, Shonil A. Bhagwat1,2, Walter Finsinger3, Sandra Nogué4,5, Pallavi Anand6, Kathy J. Willis5

1Department of Geography and OpenSpace Research Centre, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK.; 2School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.; 3ISEM, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.; 4Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.; 5Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.; 6School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK.

The effective management of human-dominated tropical forest landscapes is crucial in the wake of global environmental change affecting biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and the livelihoods of billions. To ensure success of such ecological management, it is essential that both planning as well as implementation is informed by long-term ecological knowledge rooted in robust scientific inquiries. Examples of science-based ecological management are rare largely due to paucity of high-resolution past ecological modelling studies that are capable of producing tangible analogues and policy-relevant information on a multi-decadal timescale. To bridge this gap in the light of India’s National Agroforestry Policy (NAP) and its wider relevance to other tropical countries, we harness the recent past, “the Anthropocene” to provide guidelines for current-future ecological management of human-dominated tropical landscapes. Adopting innovative statistical approaches (e.g. pollen-based REVEALS modelling, rarefaction, and multivariate ordination) well-founded on palaeoecological science, we examine the resilience of Indian agroforestry landscapes in relation to past landscape burning and monsoonal variability, thereby analysing their capacity to sustain biodiversity vital for socio-economic development of forest-dependent communities. To explore the applicability of this scenario to other parts of the tropics, we use the model system, Western Ghats (WG) of India, one of world’s prime biodiversity hotspots that supports the highest human population density through age-old agroforestry systems. The quantitative reconstructions of past landcover and land use at a resolution of 20-50 years allows us to deepen the fundamental knowledge of long-term socio-ecological, typical Anthropocene landscapes while providing a tangible window to deliver state-of-the-art understanding of the efficacy of fires in forest management and its implications for the efficient implementation of NAP. Our work is part of project “EARNEST” that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the grant agreement No. 795557.

2:00pm - 3:30pm111RA: Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics - Part A
Session Chair: Nicholas Magliocca
Session Chair: Elizabeth Tellman
Full talk
ID: 845 / 111RA: 1
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: illicit supply networks, illicit economy, deforestation, drug policy reform, transaction costs

NarcoLogic: Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system

Nicholas Magliocca1, Kendra McSweeney2, Steven Sesnie3, Elizabeth Tellman4, Jennifer Devine5, Erik Nielsen6, Zoe Pearson7, David Wrathall8, Anayansi Dávila9

1Department of Geography, University of Alabama, United States of America; 2Department of Geography, Ohio State University, United States of America; 3US Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Biological Sciences, United States of America; 4School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, United States of America; 5Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, United States of America; 6School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, United States of America; 7Department of Geography, University of Wyoming, United States of America; 8Department of Geography, Oregon State University, United States; 9Anonymous

Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and U.S. markets remain a core U.S. ‘supply side’ drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of U.S.-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the U.S. through Central America, or ‘narco-trafficking’, continue to rise. Here we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called NarcoLogic, of narco-trafficker operational decision-making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that the spatial proliferation and robustness of narco-trafficking is not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather a part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the authors’ own years’ of research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the ‘cat-and-mouse’ dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. Consistent with a 'socializing the pixel' approach, the finds from NarcoLogic will be paired with others from our research group in an effort to causally link specific areas of deforestation to narco-trafficking activity. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs.

Full talk
ID: 720 / 111RA: 2
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: illicit economies, clandestine transactions, deforestation, Central American, narcotrafficking

Illicit-clandestine land transactions - linking pattern to process in Narcodeforestation

Elizabeth Tellman1, Nicholas Magliocca2, Steven Sesnie3, Kendra McSweeney4, Erik Nielsen5, Jennifer Devine6, David Wrathall7, B.L. Turner II1, Peter Verburg8

1Arizona State University, United States of America; 2University of Alabama, United States of America; 3US Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Biological Sciences, United States of America; 4Ohio State University, United States of America; 5Northern Arizona University, United States of America; 6Texas State University, United States of America; 7Oregon State University, United States of America; 8VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Anthropogenic land use has irrevocably transformed the natural systems on which humankind relies. Understanding where, why, and how social and economic processes drive globally important land-use changes, from deforestation to urbanization, has advanced substantially. Illicit and clandestine activities are poorly understood, however, despite the recognition of their significant role in land change. We provide a conceptual framework elucidating how illicit transactions operate in land change, and a roadmap to leverage improved data and methodological innovation using “pixelizing the social” and “socializing the pixel” approaches to address this knowledge gap synergistically. Here I present an example of pixelizing social data- spatializing media content analysis, digitizing government records regarding environmental crimes, and systematizing spatio-temporal ethnographic knowledge to create a narco-activity index used in regressions. These narco-trafficking proxy variables were included in fixed effects panel econometric models. Results indicate cocaine trafficking significantly influences forest loss as much or more than conventional drivers of deforestation in Guatemala and Honduras. The outcome of this model informs "socializing" approaches such as Agent Based Models, which can test hypotheses regarding the mechanism generating the land use pattern that pixelizing approaches cannot accomplish.

Full talk
ID: 341 / 111RA: 3
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: Illegality, gold mining, land-use change, malaria, Ghana, political ecology

From “handshakes” to Plasmodium falciparum: the relationships between illegal gold mining, landscape change and malaria in Ghana

Heidi Hausermann

Colorado State University, United States of America

During the 2008 global financial crisis, gold-backed reserves became a ‘safe haven’ for capital investment, causing gold prices to hit historic highs. Across the globe, mining activities proliferated as gold prices climbed. In Ghana, small-scale mining is a right reserved for citizens. Yet, most recent mining operations are foreign-controlled and left unremediated, breaking various environmental, land tenure, mineral and other regulations. Landscape transformation from mining, moreover, portends profound implications for rural ecologies and people. Combining geospatial, ethnographic and quantitative methodological approaches with long-term international collaboration, this paper examines: 1) the shifting performances and practices of state actors who weave together legal and extra-legal domains to facilitate extraction; 2) resulting land-use changes along Ghana’s Offin River; and 3) local health and livelihood implications. I argue mining’s socio-ecological outcomes—from food insecurity and water-logged pits to anxiety and mercury contamination—combine to increase local malaria incidence. These changes interact with existing socio-structural conditions (e.g. poverty, gendered livelihood patterns) and Plasmodium falciparum’s biological capacities to render women and children most vulnerable to malaria. This work contributes to scholarly debates in several ways. Detailing co-productions between ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ domains in mining complicates understandings of the state and its role in foreign land grabbing, breaking down the ontological binaries — rational/irrational, official/unofficial — used to uphold an image of state legitimacy and cohesion. This research also troubles assumptions about malaria in global health scholarship. Rainfall patterns, mosquito net use, acquired immunity, etc. are not the only factors influencing malaria transmission and prevalence along the Offin River. Particular bodies are made vulnerable to malaria, and ill-health more generally, through complicated nature-society interactions, including state actors’ illicit practices.

Flash talk
ID: 331 / 111RA: 4
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: financial flows as relating to natural resources; legal, illegal or illicit?

Illicit financial Flows as related to natural resources: Concepts and Definitions / or: Illicit financial flows as related to natural resources: legal or illegal?

Musselli Irene, Bürgi Bonanomi Elisabeth

Centre for Development and Environment, Switzerland

Countries have committed to ‘significantly’ reduce ‘illicit financial flows’ (IFFs) by 2030 (SDG target 16.4), also as relating to natural resources. Yet, there is still no agreement on the conceptual and definitional issues surrounding the notion of IFFs. The contours of the definition are still fuzzy, and its inherent coherence is under question. In a ‘narrow’ sense, IFFs refer to the cross-border movement of money that is “earned, transferred or used” in contravention to existing laws (World Bank 2016, 1). This definition focuses on financial flows across the border associated with illegal activity. In the public narrative, it conflates IFFs with criminal activity. This narrow definition already encompasses several different types of transfers, including those connected with corruption, tax evasion, smuggling and trafficking in goods and people, or the financing of organized crime. The ‘broad’, or ‘normative’ definition of IFFs stretches the concept further, by including transactions which are deemed to be unethical, even if they are not technically illegal (High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows from Africa 2015, Independent Expert on the effects of debt 2016, UNCTAD 2014). For example, many countries do not have transfer pricing laws, which results in abusive transfer pricing not being technical unlawful under their domestic legal framework (Chowla and Falcao 2016). Domestic law may not be violated; yet, the transaction would still be normatively unacceptable, hence ‘illicit’, under a broad, normative definition of IFFs.

Full talk
ID: 581 / 111RA: 5
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: Artisanal refining, oil theft, illegal bunkering, livelihood, Niger Delta

Impact of illicit oil activities on coastal land use system: A case of Bille Creeks, Niger Delta

Olanrewaju Lawal1, Nenibarini Zabbey2,3, Kabari Sam3

1Department of Geography & Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt; 2Department of Fisheries, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Port Harcourt; 3Environment and Conservation Unit, Centre for Environment, Human Rights and Development, Port Harcourt

Oil theft and illicit makeshift artisanal refining activities contribute to degrading the coastal landscape of the Niger Delta region, Nigeria. Spills from pipeline hot tapping, loading, refining activities and waste stream discharges of oil theft and illegal artisanal refining reinforce conventional operational spills in the Niger Delta, making it one of the most oil impacted regions globally. The region’s complex web of the fourth largest expanse of mangrove in the world is incidentally the hotspot of oil theft and illegal artisanal refining. Bille community and adjoining creeks are a major hub of oil ‘bunkering’ and artisanal oil refining activities. Thus, a better understanding of the impact of the activities on coastal landscape is imperative for enhanced sustainable natural resources management in the region. This study used remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to highlight temporal changes in landcover of Bille. Landsat Imageries from 1986 to 2016 were analysed and classified into major land cover types. The study area covers an estimated 211km2, 13% of which was modified by human activities (e.g. farm, built-up) as at 1986. By 2016, more than a third of the area has been degraded by oil-theft and ancillary human activities. The built-up or farmland area decreased from 27% of the total landmass in 1986 to less than 5% in 2016. Dense mangrove coverage declined by about 60%, while sparse mangrove cover increased by about 20%. The dramatic change points majorly to composite impact of prevailing illicit artisanal refining activities and industrial operational spills, as well as unregulated mangrove exploitation (e.g. cutting wood for fuel). The implications of these change are manifested in the land systems as: reduced farming space; reduced viability of coastal ecosystem services, shrinking habitat area, and degraded mangroves, increased poverty and delimited local livelihoods. We discussed the significance of poorly regulated natural resources exploitation on sustainable development in regions directly dependent on natural resource mining for livelihood and make exemplar recommendations for global mitigation.

4:15pm - 5:45pm152N: Can we give half the planet back to nature?
Session Chair: Zia Mehrabi
Session Chair: Erle Ellis
Date: Thursday, 25/Apr/2019
10:45am - 12:15pm111RB: Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics - Part B
Session Chair: Nicholas Magliocca
Session Chair: Elizabeth Tellman
Full talk
ID: 817 / 111RB: 1
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: Amazon, Andes

Identifying links to illicit economies requires looking beyond the usual suspects

Liliana M Davalos1, Dolors Armenteras2, Jennifer Holmes3

1Stony Brook University, United States of America; 2Universidad Nacional, Colombia; 3University of Texas, Dallas

For decades, reseearch on deforestation in the Amazon Andes has highlighted the role of coca cultivation in land use change. The evidence for a high rate of change from coca in the Andean countries, however, remains scant, and systematic analyses have identified roads and armed conflict as stronger predictors of conversion rates. Here we analyze municipal and regional data from Colombia to disentangle coca crops from local illicit economies as covariates of deforestation. Although we find support for coca cultivation fueling deforestation locally, the proxies for illicit and licit economies are more strongly associated with land use change. At the same time, there are region-specific signs of accelerated land use change linked to coca eradication. Taken together, these results upend the conventional view of coca cultivation as a key contributor to land use change, and highlight the importance of considering booming licit and illicit economies as drivers of deforestation in the Amazon Andes.

Full talk
ID: 633 / 111RB: 2
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: sand mafia; illicit sand mining; environmental crimes; international organized crime

The structure, operation, and harmful consequences of illicit sand mining in India

Aunshul Rege

Temple University, United States of America

India’s Sand Mafia, which illegally mines sand for construction, generates approximately USD 17 million per month in revenues. The Sand Mafia is currently considered to be one of the most prominent, violent, and impenetrable organized crime groups in India. Yet, there is a dearth of research on this group. This paper explores the Sand Mafia via a document analysis of media and environmental articles published between 2010 and 2017. This group operates as numerous, fragmented structures with transient memberships, and uses violence, political affiliation, and regenerative properties to ensure continued operation. Other factors, such as inadequate manpower, poor enforcement, rapid economic development, and limited acceptance of alternatives to sand, collectively compound the problem of illicit sand mining. Finally, this paper will offer a preliminary discussion of the devastating environmental, physical, and economical harms caused by this organized crime group.

Full talk
ID: 358 / 111RB: 3
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: Land Market Participation, Land Access, Crop Commercialization, Outright Purchase, Rent

Can Nigeria achieve development through informal land market?

Olubunmi Olanike Alawode1, Oluwatosin Adejoke Adewusi1, Adebayo Ogunniyi2

1University of Ibadan, Nigeria; 2International Food Policy Research Institute, Abuja, Nigeria.

Land is an essential element in agricultural development and its accessibility is crucial to the attainment of a sustainable national development. This paper assessed the effect of agricultural land access on the level of commercialization in Nigeria. The data were General Household Survey (Living Standard Measurement Survey) panel data for the post-planting and postharvest periods of 2015 and 2016 cropping seasons. Descriptive statistics, Crop commercialization index(CCI) and Tobit model were used to analyse data. Farmers acquired land through non-market based methods, in which family inheritance remains the dominant means of land acquisition in Nigeria. Also, farmers (12.8%) acquired land through market based methods (outright purchase and rent) and participated in informal land market. Majority (85.2%) of farmers in Nigeria have low land holding, operate on small scale with average of 1.1hectare, and are semi-subsistence (62.5%). Crop commercialization is also low as almost one-quarter of the farmers sold less than a quarter of their crop produce. This is the case in all the geopolitical zones except South West, where more than half of farmers’ produce (63.71%) were sold; the zone driving commercialization in Nigeria is the South West. Improved access to land through rent increases the level of commercialization of crops by farmers. The effects of all the six geopolitical zones on the level of commercialization in Nigeria are significantly negative, and this is explained by the high level of conflicts between cattle herdsmen and crop farmers, leading to displacement of the farming population, disruption of farming activities, and even loss of farmers’ lives. Policy efforts aimed at improving the functioning of land markets and re-settlement of displaced farming population would help in securing higher levels of marketable surplus of the semi-subsistence, and hence commercialization, to support the economy diversification bid of the government to achieve national development.

Full talk
ID: 277 / 111RB: 4
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: illegal logging, community-based monitoring, deforestation, degradation, FLEGT VPA

Involving forest-fringe communities in controlling illegal logging: Insights from focus group research in five forest districts, Ghana

Lawrence Damnyag1, Benjamin, K. Bani2

1CSIR-Forestry Research Institute of Ghana/CCST College of Science and Technology, Ghana; 2Department of Silviculture and Forest Management, KNUST, University Post, Kumasi, Ghana

Globally, illegal chainsaw operation and the sale of timber are viewed as the main cause of forest degradation. It also poses a threat to biodiversity whilst endangering the ability of forest fringe communities who are dependent on the forest for their livelihoods to have their needs met. In Ghana, illegal chainsaw operation and logging activity continue to be a challenge in forest management as they continue to fuel the rate of deforestation and forest degradation. This paper investigates the experiences, challenges, and strategies available for the official forest managers and forest-communities in the fight against the illegal logging menace. Qualitative research design was employed. Focus group discussion technique was used to collect the data among local communities and forest managers in five districts. The results show that there is no effective collaboration among the resource managers, the forest fringe-communities, the logging companies and local authorities (chiefs) in the address of this menace. One significant challenge that makes it more difficult to address this problem is the reported perceived corruption among the forestry officials and the forest fringe-communities themselves owing to lack of incentives for the illegal logging monitoring activities. The paper recommends that alternative sources of income and incentives be developed for the local communities to reduce their involvement in illegal activities and encourage their participation in the campaigns against the menace under Ghana’s European Union (EU) Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade Voluntary Partnership Agreement (FLEGT VPA) initiative.

Full talk
ID: 304 / 111RB: 5
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: Social transformation, global governance, criminogenic dynamics, social cohesion, impunity, Amazonia

Collateral Damage – Impacts of LUC/LCC on the social cohesion of local lifeworlds in Amazonia

Regine Schönenberg

Free University Berlin, Germany

Processes of fast social transformation impact heavily on informal survival strategies. In the Brazilian Amazon, incomplete and fragmented formalization, regulation, legalization fosters the criminalization of whole lifeworlds. The explosiveness of wide-ranging societal heterogeneity being confronted with inadequate and badly informed national and international policy-interventions is manifest in land conflicts, contract killing, illegal land markets, irregular urbanization, volatile cocaine routes and, above all, impunity. Since the 1990’s, the interests of local populations became increasingly interlinked with different global interests, such as the search for land for agro-industrial production, the protection of Indigenous people, of the forests, of biodiversity and the climate, the fight of terrorism and the search for secure borders, the demand for precious timber, oil, iron ore, gas and for cocaine. Thereby, livelihood-security of local populations gets often out of sight; instead local populations become part of the different discourses in place. Even internal communication on daily matters becomes hampered by strange concepts such as biodiversity, logging-license, fishery-quota, climate-change mitigation or transnational organized crime. Suddenly, local reference-points for decision-making link up with political and economic networks that can neither been overseen nor influenced. In this situation, many regions lose their social cohesion and enter a spiral of short-lived informal survival strategies which makes them vulnerable for the criminalization of their social and economic reproduction. The interplay and interactions among actors, institutions and networks involved in those dynamics are still under-explored and under-conceptualised.

Effects of national and global governance are being assessed paradigmatically from the bottom-up perspective of the periphery of Brazil. The questions that will be discussed by reconstructing various processes of criminalization are the following: Which ingredients are necessary to trigger a criminogenic dynamic of social transformation? When is the course set for an almost irreversible process of criminalization, a kind of tipping point? Is it possible to find turning points and to reverse the process? Which significance may the results have for the understanding of the advancing social, economic, cultural, ecological and political disintegration of many regions in the world? Which global policy approaches could reverse the process?

1:30pm - 3:00pm317R: The role of digitalization in land transformation
Session Chair: Adrienne Grêt-Regamey
Session Chair: Peter Messerli
Session Chair: Julie Gwendolin Zaehringer
Full talk
ID: 849 / 317R: 1
216R Equity and justice in telecoupled land systems: evaluative and transformative perspectives
Keywords: land tenure, rights, blockchain

The role of blockchain technology for land use rights

Desiree Christina Daniel1, Chinwe Ifejika Speranza2

1University of Bern, Switzerland; 2University of Bern, Switzerland

The relationship between people and land is at the heart of livelihoods. Yet, land tenure in the global south reveals complex issues regarding land administration and security of land rights for the poor, marginalised and indigenous communities. For livelihoods, access to land is at times the basis for access to other resources, and documentary proof of rights to land is necessary. For example, the burgeoning informal land market and creeping informalisation of tenure means that users are granted permission verbally, and those permissions are not formally documented.

In this presentation, we discuss the potential of Blockchain Technology in addressing the documentation of users’ rights on lands. To address this issue on already overburdened land administration resources, we explore the feasibility of this new technology. Blockchain technology is a peer-to-peer protocol that can be leveraged to keep track of transactions over the internet. Publicised for its use in the bitcoin revolution, the technology provides transparency and traceability that can be used in the management of land rights. When it comes to the formalisation of land rights, blockchain technology promises to authenticate owners and other users of land, and provides a fixed ledger of land use rights transactions.

At present blockchain technology is being explored as a proof of concept in several countries (e.g. Georgia, India, Ghana, Sweden) to track land titles (state to individual). We extend the idea to capture the granting of land use rights (individual to individual) making use of the decentralisation, peer-to-peer nature of blockchain technology. We conclude that blockchain technology can offer an effective means to manage land transactions, reduce inefficiency in land systems and is capable of addressing informal tenure issues. What it requires is the political will of governments to invest in the technology and bring land management into the industry 4.0 era.

Full talk
ID: 360 / 317R: 2
317R The role of digitalization in land transformation
Keywords: blockchain, conservation, agriculture, supply chains, governance

Blockchain in conservation and agricultural supply chains

Owen G. Cortner, Rachael D. Garrett, Christoph Nolte

Boston University, United States of America

Networked digital information technologies seem poised to play a central role in environmental governance during the 21st century, particularly as private companies become more engaged in the governance of products entering their supply chains. This study examines current efforts to test and deploy “distributed ledger technologies,” particularly blockchain initiatives, in the governance of land use activities. While most current blockchain initiatives in food supply chains are incentivized primarily by food safety and financial motives, implications of the technology for environmental outcomes of land use activities are unknown. Early implementers claim that blockchain could help improve knowledge about the provenance of agricultural products and associated environmental impacts and facilitate payments for ecosystem services. The non-local, secure, auditable, and transactional nature of blockchain differentiate it from other digital systems that could be used for these purposes. Informed by a landscape survey of blockchain initiatives and review of recent literature, we explore the implications of blockchain for land governance and sustainability through two detailed case studies of real-world blockchain implementation: one platform for ecological monitoring and contracts and another focused on trust in food supply chains. We question the circumstances under which such efforts may be effective at solving trust problems, including important contractual issues like adverse selection and information asymmetry, and contributing to conservation and improved agricultural management. We also describe challenging aspects of implementation including stakeholder involvement, data quality and origin, land tenure, and linking physical goods in supply chains and ecological states in production regions with their digital representations.

Full talk
ID: 903 / 317R: 4
317R The role of digitalization in land transformation
Keywords: blockchain, land administration, governance, enabling environment

Is blockchain a game-changer for Land Administration?

Aanchal Anand

World Bank, United States of America

Several blockchain pilots and proofs of concept have emerged in the last few years. Blockchain for land administration indeed offers the potential to increase accountability and transparency. But why has blockchain become more widely adopted, reaching scale? The answer may lie in issues like governance, lack of digitized records, lack of accurate ownership data etc. These are not problems technology can solve, and, therefore, investments in improving the enabling environment will be needed to allow for the adoption of blockchain technology by more countries and improve the overall security of tenure. In this presentation, the speaker presents the various challenges in land administration and says that technology is only a part of the solution, not all of it. Technology will need to be developed and deployed in a way that its benefits can go beyond the pilot stage into scalable solutions. For this to be achieved, Governments and the private sector will need to continue to invest in the enabling environment and governance issues.

Full talk
ID: 549 / 317R: 5
317R The role of digitalization in land transformation
Keywords: digitalisation, policy, agriculture, land-use, governance

Smart agricultural policy: How digitalization transforms land-use

Melf-Hinrich Ehlers, Robert Huber, Robert Finger

Agricultural Economics and Policy Group, ETH Zürich, Switzerland

Increasing use of information and communication technology transforms agricultural production (Walter et al. 2017). Farmers apply precision agriculture technologies to simultaneously use their land more efficiently and save on environmentally harmful inputs. Digital technologies also enable new opportunities in business and transparency governance along agricultural value chains. The fundamental changes triggered by digitalisation of how we produce, process and market agricultural products can have great impact on the use of farmland. Agricultural policies play an important role within this social-ecological system. Through market interventions, environmental regulations and production incentives, agricultural policy directly influences farmers’ decisions and consequently land use transformations worldwide. The impact of digitalisation on how we steer agricultural production, however, is a blind spot in current research efforts. Key opportunities of a digitalised agricultural policy would not only entail efficient monitoring of environmental regulations in time and space (e.g. trough remote sensing) but also novel policy measures that resolve challenges of ineffective targeting and non-point pollution trough mitigation of information asymmetries. However, there are also issues of governance of algorithms and data sovereignty within globalised information flows. While some applications of digital technologies, such as those use to administer farm subsidies of the European Union are already established, it is unclear what effect digitalisation can have on agricultural policy and associated land transformations more broadly and what challenges digital agricultural policy entails. We examine these questions on the basis of a systematic literature review on digitalisation in agriculture and develop a framework that categorises policy and associated effects as well as challenges of digitalisation. The classification presented will provide an important entry point for an interdisciplinary assessment of digital policy instruments on land use. It helps to identify research needs and governance challenges for future land transformation.

Flash talk
ID: 588 / 317R: 6
317R The role of digitalization in land transformation
Keywords: landscape typology, data mining, fuzzy representation

Evaluating the potential of machine learning algorithms to develop a landscape typology

Bettina Weibel, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

ETH Zürich, Switzerland

Land system and landscape science both seek to understand land cover and land use change as a result from the actions and interactions between humans and natural factors. While several authors have tried to identify land use change based on remotely sensed data, most current landscape typologies fail to adequately address the role of humans in influencing land use processes. Data mining technologies have been promoted as opening the path to new classification approaches, but the question remains if they will better allow delineating landscape patterns emphasizing the cultural dimension of such coupled socio-ecological systems.

In this contribution, we compare various data mining approaches with expert classifications as they are applied in many different fields from finances to biology. The goal of the study is to provide a spatially explicit typology of the landscapes in the Canton of Schwyz, Switzerland and to explore if computer-based analysis provides other classes than the ones defined by experts. We perform our analysis based on a set of available spatial data including elevation and land use and land cover, population density but also historic traffic routes and specific historical landscape elements. In particular, we compare an indicator-based GIS fuzzy logic approach to K-Means clustering, convolutional neural networks and self-organizing maps for unsupervised approaches and random forest as well as support vector machine for supervised approaches.

Full talk
ID: 882 / 317R: 7
333R Mapping land system through coupling the biophysical and socioeconomic attributes based on remote sensing and big data approaches
Keywords: SDGs, earth observation, ecosystem modeling and analysis

Big Earth Data enabling baseline data collection in support of SDG indicators: the experience of TERN Landscapes of Australia

Graciela Isabelle Metternicht1,5, Matt Paget2,5, Alex Held3,5, Richard Lucas4,5, Mike Grundy2,5

1The University of New South Wales, Australia; 2CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia; 3CSIRO Centre for Earth Observation, Canberra Australia; 4Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, UK; 5TERN Landscapes

Big Earth Data open windows of opportunity for applications in support of the SDG global indicator framework, including baseline data collection and monitoring of SDG targets’ trends. Such opportunities of using Big EO data come with some challenges though: data storage and management, data quality and reliability, whether methods are transferable to different geographies and scales, or how the results can be interpreted to produce Voluntary National Review reports that inform the progress towards the implementation of the SDGs.

Since 2010, 12 government and academic institutions have been working cooperatively in the implementation of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). One component of this network, the TERN's Landscapes platform, conducts environmental monitoring using remote sensing techniques to characterise and monitor Australian ecosystems at a landscape and continental scale. The platform also undertakes modelling and synthesis activities to extrapolate and interpolate from observational data to produce modelled data products (e.g. land cover vegetation fraction).

The TERN Landscape is an example of using Big Earth Observation data to characterise and detect change relating to vegetation structure and composition, land cover underlying forces, and bushfire dynamics and impacts, etcetera. Valuable lessons related to open data access, validation, calibration, inter-institutional cooperation for value added products in support of environmental management have been learned through its implementation.

This presentation will discuss key aspects of the formulation, development and implementation of TERN Landscapes, using dense time-series of optical satellite data from the Australian Geoscience Data Cube (AGDC), high resolution MiniSat data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR); collation of publicly available field, drone and aircraft observations; and the collection of new datasets under common protocols. It will reflect on the opportunities and challenges that national initiatives like TERN Landscapes present for effective operational delivery of value added Big EO in support of the SDGs indicators.

3:15pm - 4:45pm309RB: Assessing and evaluating the impact of the consumption of land-based products on biodiversity and ecosystem services - Part B
Session Chair: Thomas Kastner
Session Chair: Alexandra Marques
Full talk
ID: 886 / 309RB: 1
309R Assessing and evaluating the impact of the consumption of land-based products on biodiversity and ecosystem services
Keywords: life cycle assessment, environmental impacts, modelling, biogeophysical effects

Using life cycle assessment (LCA) to link production and consumption activities to biogeophysical effects of land use

Anders Bjørn1, Sarah Sim2, Henry King2, Patrick Keys3, Lan Wang Erlandsson4, Sarah Cornell4, Manuele Margni1, Cecile Bulle5

1Polytechnique Montréal, Canada; 2Unilever Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever R&D, Colworth Science Park, Sharnbrook, UK; 3School of Global Environmental Sustainability, Colorado State University, Colorado, USA; 4Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; 5CIRAIG, ESG UQÀM, Montreal (QC), Canada

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is commonly applied to evaluate the total potential environmental impacts of a product. This is done in two steps. First, the activities that are involved in a production system are linked via their physical and/or monetary exchanges and their emissions and resource use are quantified. Second, environmental models are employed to quantify potential impacts for a wide range of categories, such as climate change, freshwater scarcity and land use effects. The state of the art modelling of land use effects in LCA considers the location and type of a land-cover change (e.g., from tropical forest to soy cultivation) as well as the area and duration of the new land-cover and relevant management practices (e.g., rain-fed versus irrigated crops).

LCA methods have mainly focused on modelling effects of land use on biodiversity within the disturbed lands and on global climate regulation from biogenic carbon emissions. In comparison, land use effects on biogeophysical processes that regulate local and regional climate - i.e., exchange of energy, water, and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere - have been largely overlooked.

Here, we propose to quantify biogeophysical effects of land use by modelling changes to precipitation and air surface temperature in the location of land-cover change, as well as in other (e.g., downwind) affected locations. We identify existing modelling approaches suitable for use in LCA and identify remaining research needs. Further, in recognition that terrestrial ecosystems often react non-linearly to changes in precipitation and temperature, we identify relevant threshold values that separate alternative stable states (such as forest, savanna and grassland). These threshold values can be used as references in the quantification of biogeophysical effects and may be considered when defining conservation targets at various scales.

Full talk
ID: 346 / 309RB: 2
309R Assessing and evaluating the impact of the consumption of land-based products on biodiversity and ecosystem services
Keywords: biodiversity, indicators, life cycle assessment, e-DNA, landscape configuration

New biodiversity indicators for use in life cycle assessment

Ulrika Johanna Palme1,2, Emke Vrasdonk1,2, Annie Jonsson3, Sofia Berg3

1Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden; 2Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre; 3Univerity of Skövde

One of the most frequently used tools to assess the environmental impact from products, and hence consumption, is environmental life cycle assessment (LCA). LCA is however struggling with how to include impacts from land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services in a way that is simple enough, yet adequate. The present guidelines rest on assessment of species richness, but important aspects such as genetic diversity and landscape configuration, are missing. There is a set of approaches that rest on expert judgement that claim to include also these aspects due to their holistic approach, but expert judgement can be perceived as subjective. In our research we have looked at two novel ways of assessing impacts on biodiversity that could be integrated in LCA or other environmental systems analysis tools: Assessment by use of 1) an indicator based on genetic analysis of soil and insect samples and 2) a landscape biodiversity capacity index (LBCI).

Genetic analysis by retrieving DNA from environmental samples (environmental DNA – eDNA) allows for the generation of quick and cheap diversity data for entire communities so that they can be compared across time and space. Besides macro-organisms such an indicator includes micro-organisms, insects and fungi which are likely to play an even greater role in regulating ecosystem function, food chains, nutrient cycles and carbon storage, among others. The second assessment method, LBCI, reflects the level of heterogeneity and fragmentation of the landscape. LBCI uses land-cover data as a basis for calculations and is built on three hypotheses derived from well-established ecological knowledge and theory. The basic assumptions are that landscape biodiversity increases with number of biotopes, evenness of the area between biotopes and functional connectivity of biotopes. This is work in progress, so we will present the methodology, expected potential and preliminary results from the application of the methods in a case study on beef production in different landscapes in Sweden.

Flash talk
ID: 606 / 309RB: 3
309R Assessing and evaluating the impact of the consumption of land-based products on biodiversity and ecosystem services
Keywords: sustainable intensification, greenhouse gas emission savings, land use savings, human and livestock diet, food and agriculture systems

Assessing the environmental impacts of production- and consumption-side measures in sustainable agriculture intensification in the European Union

Anna Liza Bais-Moleman1, Catharina J.E. Schulp1, Peter H. Verburg1,2

1Environmental Geography, Institute of Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit (VU) Amsterdam, the Netherlands; 2Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Sustainable agricultural intensification (SI) is an important strategy to respond to the combined challenge of achieving food security and providing public goods and ecosystem services to society, including mitigation and adaptation of climate change. Sustainable intensification includes a wide range of measures at both the supply and demand-side of agricultural production. However, currently, it is unclear what are the most effective and priority measures. This study aims at identifying the most effective SI measures, their potential trade-offs and their effects on trade and yield gap. This study assesses the potential of different SI measures for reducing GHG emissions and increasing land use efficiency in the European Union’s agriculture sector. A scenario approach was combined with life cycle analysis to quantify the environmental impacts of a number of different SI measures. The sustainable intensification measures assessed in this study are: 1) changing human diet; 2) using food waste in livestock diets; 3) shifting from monoculture cropping to crop rotation, and, 4) incorporating crop residues into the soil. The results reveal that the studied SI measures have the potential to increase land use savings, ranging from 0.06 to 3.32 m2/person/day, while GHG emission savings ranging from 71 to 1,872 gCO2-eq/person/day can be achieved at EU level. Among these SI measures, changing human diet showed a remarkably high reduction of environmental impacts. On the contrary, increased GHG emission savings in the other SI measures (e.g. crop residue incorporation in the field and replacing soybean meal in conventional feed by food waste-based feed) are counter effected by increased GHG emissions in the energy sector due to reduction of feedstock availability for bioenergy production. The approach used in this study allows the assessment of both the production and consumption-side SI measures and allows the identification of the most effective SI measures and their potential trade-offs.

Flash talk
ID: 380 / 309RB: 4
309R Assessing and evaluating the impact of the consumption of land-based products on biodiversity and ecosystem services
Keywords: Trade-offs, Interregional sustainability, Ecosystem service burdens, Food systems

'Functional regions'- a different perspective on sustainable food systems in an interconnected world

Dor Fridman, Meidad Kissinger

Ben Gurion University, Israel

Food demand has increased rapidly over the last few decades, and is expected to increase further within the near future. Already today many countries' food security is at least partially dependent on imported food. Such interregional dependencies may indirectly drive ecosystems degradation in remote regions. Promoting interregional sustainability therefore requires an understanding of the environmental burdens driven by international trade.

Several studies have accounted the flows of crops, and of embodied cropland, water and fertilizers between countries. However, accounting for the environmental and social impact of these remote interactions requires an analysis at resolutions higher than national. Based on a global 10 km grid, the idea of a 'functional region' was introduced recently by the presenters and will be the main focus of this presentation.

A 'functional region' is a spatial-explicit production class defined by its relative agricultural performance and environmental state as measured by different indicators. The demonstrated 'functional regions' will cover four major highly globally traded staple crops: wheat, maize, soybeans and rice. Each will be described by two spatial explicit indicators describing agricultural performance: yield and water intensity, and by two indicators describing the environmental system and its capacity to withstand against human derived pressure: soil loss and water availability. At the moment, global agricultural production areas were classified into 24 'functional regions' based on the interactions between agricultural efficiency and dominant environmental conditions.

This typology forms an intermediate scale which relates global and interregional flows to local ecosystem impacts. Therefore it can be used for identifying global hotspots preferable for crop production and hidden inefficiencies, and for crop production and environmental based trade optimization studies. It may also help promoting effective policies, identifying research gaps and detecting hidden costs and benefits of agricultural commodities international trade.

Flash talk
ID: 441 / 309RB: 5
309R Assessing and evaluating the impact of the consumption of land-based products on biodiversity and ecosystem services
Keywords: agriculture, food production, biodiversity change

Factors determining the biodiversity value of croplands worldwide

Charlie Outhwaite, Monica Ortiz, Carole Dalin, Tim Newbold

University College London, United Kingdom

A certain amount of land-use change ‒ cropland expansion or intensification ‒ is necessary to meet the food demand of an increasingly large and wealthy population. However, agricultural land use is the most threatening to biodiversity, while biodiversity can provide significant services to agriculture, such as pollination, natural pest control and nutrient cycling. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to achieve food security ‒ underpinned by adequate food production ‒ and to halt biodiversity loss by 2030. Most studies of environmentally sustainable food production have focused on issues related to water, chemical use and greenhouse gas emissions; with impacts on biodiversity accounted for implicitly, via proxies such as land use itself, or ecosystem pollution. While recent work has provided more direct metrics of the impacts of food production on biodiversity, including the effects of trade, models need to be improved to provide accurate global-scale indicators. The diversity of agricultural systems means that there are varying levels of biodiversity within croplands. While intensively farmed croplands have generally low levels of biodiversity, other farming systems may have synergies with biodiversity; for example, it has been shown that biodiversity can improve and deliver ecosystem services such as pollination, with a positive impact on yield. It is possible that factors such as the type of crop, its yield, and the proximity of the cropland to areas of primary vegetation, have effects on species richness and abundance. Understanding this effect will start to shed light on the drivers of biodiversity change in agricultural systems, and the synergies and trade offs that result. To investigate these relationships, we use global biodiversity, vegetation, and crop yield datasets to test the following two research questions: (1) Does proximity to primary vegetation result in greater biodiversity of agricultural areas? and (2) What is the current relationship between crop yield and local biodiversity, globally?

Full talk
ID: 638 / 309RB: 6
309R Assessing and evaluating the impact of the consumption of land-based products on biodiversity and ecosystem services
Keywords: Consumption-based accounting, global supply chains, distant drivers, brazilian cattle

Global food and non-food supply chains of Brazilian cattle products and their land footprints

Martin Bruckner1, Victor Maus1,2

1Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Ecological Economics, Austria; 2International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystems Services and Management Program

Cattle ranching is argued to be responsible for large parts of deforestation and biodiversity loss observed in Brazil over the last 40 years. According to the literature, conversion to pasture accounts for about 70% of clearing activity in the Brazilian Amazon, with large shares of the remaining 30% being used for the cultivation of feed crops like maize and soybeans. Continuously growing demand for Brazilian beef, particularly from China and Middle East, along with unabated domestic consumption, drove production volumes from 1.8 million tonnes of cattle meat in 1970 to 9.8 million tonnes in 2013, hence requiring substantial expansion of grazing and cropland.

Using the newly developed Food and Agriculture Biomass Input-Output model (FABIO), a physical input-output model covering 190 countries, 130 agri-food products, and more than 50 industrial products for 1986 to 2013, we analysed the global supply chains of Brazilian cattle products, including both food and non-food products, on an unprecedented level of detail. Our analysis reveals that domestic consumption remains the main driver of cattle production, while external demand increases at much higher rates. Beef and milk still are the dominant products. However, non-food uses, for example hides in the leather industry and fats in the chemical industry, are gaining in importance. At the same time we observe an accelerating complexity and length of supply chains.

Full talk
ID: 846 / 309RB: 7
108R Farming into the future: balancing global competitiveness and localised comparative advantage?
Keywords: agribusiness, conservation planning, clusters, land use change, land use systems

Analyzing ecoregions’ condition for the potential agriculture expansion in South America

Lucía Zarbá1, H. Ricardo Grau1, N. Ignacio Gasparri1, Jordan Graesser2, T. Mitchell Aide3

1Instituto de Ecología Regional, CONICET- Universidad Nacional de Tucumán; 2School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland; 3Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico

Cropland and pastureland are expanding throughout South America, often replacing natural ecosystems. Commodity production for export is one of the main drivers of this expansion, and indirectly inducing other land use changes. Previous studies found a segregated land use reorganization across the continent, suggesting that geography plays an important role in these dynamics. Understanding the local setting influences on larger scale agriculture dynamics would help us predict how different ecoregions respond to international drivers, and contextualize policy and planning efforts to maximize land use efficiency and conservation. In this study, we attempted to capture the globalized agribusiness viewpoint as a major agent of change. Specifically, we asked: Which ecoregions are more likely to undergo similar transformation dynamics and what type of agricultural activities may occur in them?

To address these questions we created a data-driven clustering of ecoregions based on four simple geographic variables: (i) aptitude for mechanized agriculture, (ii) aptitude for rain-fed agriculture, (iii) distance to logistic/historic urban centers (cities), and (iv) distance connections to global markets (ports). The analysis grouped the ecoregions in eight clusters that showed correlation with current agriculture distribution and recent trends (pseudo R2=0.5) and reflect the conditions for agribusiness expansion. Our results highlighted groups of ecoregions with good aptitudes for agribusiness defined as "highly connected humid lowlands" (e.g. pampa region), "far humid lowlands” (e.g. moist chaco and chiquitania), and "accessible semiarid lowlands" (e.g. dry chaco), as opposed to least preferable groups defined as “far montane drylands” (e.g. high andes and patagonia) or “remote humid lowlands” (e.g. pantepui and southwest amazon). We propose this grouping as a guiding stratification of the ecoregions of South America to analyze land use processes, specially the cases related with the agribusiness expansion and its cascade effects.

5:15pm - 6:45pm253N: Farming of the future - What type of farming systems will be producing sufficient sustainable and nutritious food for everyone in 2050?
Session Chair: Verena Seufert
Session Chair: Navin Ramankutty
ID: 335 / 253N: 1
253N Farming of the future – What type of farming systems will be producing sufficient sustainable and nutritious food for everyone in 2050? (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Economically and environmentally sustainable farming systems

Allison Thomson

Field to Market, United States of America

The most widely adopted and successful farming systems will be those that provide farmers with a continuing livelihood and economic sustainability. Land systems science can identify systems that provide benefits to ecosystems and communities. Widespread public interest in understanding and reducing the environmental impact of agriculture can help to incentivize change through food supply chains. Providing common tools and insights to aid public understanding, corporate goal setting and farmer action is one method to drive change in farmer practices towards those with improved environmental outcomes. The exact sets of practices remain the decision of the land owners and operators.

ID: 368 / 253N: 2
253N Farming of the future – What type of farming systems will be producing sufficient sustainable and nutritious food for everyone in 2050? (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Food sovereignty mechanisms can feed the world and cool the planet

Hannah Wittman

University of British Columbia, Canada

Over 200M farmer, fisher, and Indigenous families in the global food sovereignty movement argue that policies that increase community decision-making capacity, support infrastructure for the autonomous development of regional food systems, and enable agroecological production practices that address climate change and protect biodiversity will support the most sustainable and food secure ‘farming systems of the future’. This presentation will outline the main principles of the food sovereignty movement (Equity, Ecology and Empowerment) and discuss key institutional mechanisms supporting these principles: resource distribution, integrated knowledge exchange between farmers, researchers and policy makers, and increasing solidarity between urban consumers and land-based communities.

ID: 901 / 253N: 3
253N Farming of the future – What type of farming systems will be producing sufficient sustainable and nutritious food for everyone in 2050? (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Agroecology-based systems as key levers for radical transformation of food systems

Urs Niggli

Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL), Switzerland

Current agricultural production entails trade-offs between food, feed, fiber, and fuel production on the one hand, and non-commodity ecosystem services on the other hand. Political incentives for sustainable and ecological intensification improved them incrementally. Agroecology based systems (organic farming, agroforestry or permaculture) might play a key role in a radical transformation of food systems. Global models show that by combining environmentally friendly farming, reduced production of concentrates for livestock and lower food wastage, trade-offs between production and eco-stability are reduced. Due to ecological and social strengths, organic agriculture is a particularly interesting farming system, and easy to understand and practice.

ID: 910 / 253N: 4
253N Farming of the future – What type of farming systems will be producing sufficient sustainable and nutritious food for everyone in 2050? (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Sustainable intensification of agricultural systems

Patricio Grassini

University of Nebraska-Lincoln, United States of America

The combined impact of slowing yield growth in the world’s major breadbaskets and rapid expansion of crop production area puts our global food system on an unsustainable path. Without increasing crop yields on existing farmland while substantially reducing negative environmental impacts and GHG emissions, it will be difficult to achieve a food security without massive biodiversity loss and accelerated climate change. Adequate investment and prioritization of research and development is required to reach the required degree of intensification by mid-century.

Date: Friday, 26/Apr/2019
10:30am - 12:00pm305R: Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Session Chair: Ruth Defries
Session Chair: Meha Jain
Full talk
ID: 585 / 305R: 1
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: Africa; fuelwood; health; LULCC; poverty

Population and environment dynamics of energy access in sub-Saharan Africa

Pamela Jagger

University of Michigan, United States of America

The role of land use land cover change (LULCC) in determining household energy access and energy poverty is poorly understood. Most household energy studies emphasis demand side factors including economic status and demographic characteristics of households, ignoring the role that supply-side factors play in household decision making about fuel and technology choice and their consequences for well-being. We present results from studies in Malawi and Uganda where we consider the role of LULCC in household decisions about the type of fuel used, cooking technology choice, time allocated to collecting fuels, and expenditures on fuels. We use panel data from targeted household socioeconomic surveys, multiple waves of population representative sociodemographic datasets, and Modis data on land use land cover change to explore the relationship between LULCC, fuel choice, and livelihood outcomes including the health status of women. We find that land use land cover change transitions dramatically reduce the availability of high-quality fuelwood in the landscape. We observe that under conditions of declining forest cover and forest degradation, lower income households previously reliant on collection of high-quality fuelwood switch to lower quality fuels including crop residues and wet fuelwood, whereas better-off households transition to charcoal or purchased fuelwood. Data from both Uganda and Malawi confirm that use of low-quality fuels in household cooking is correlated with higher prevalence of symptoms of respiratory, cardiopulmonary and neurologic disease. Our work identifies a poorly understood pathway through which deforestation and forest degradation act as a poverty trap through increased use of higher polluting fuels in household cooking. Our findings suggest that areas where LULCC is associated with increased use of low-quality biomass fuels are appropriate targets for policy interventions designed to reduce fuel consumption or transition households to use of modern fuels.

Full talk
ID: 716 / 305R: 2
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: millets, dietary diversity, food subsidy

Impact of food and agriculture policies on dietary patterns and malnutrition in India

Patrese Anderson2, Nirali Bakhla1, Kathy Baylis2, Ashwini Chhatre1, Kyle Davis3, Ruth DeFries3, Piyush Mehta1, Narasimha Rao4

1Indian School of Business; 2University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; 3Columbia University; 4International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Green revolution and food subsidy programs in India contributed to large increases in the production of rice and wheat over the last five decades, with concomitant reduction in the proportion of coarse cereals in the food supply. At the same time, as total calorie production increased several folds, India has among the highest incidence of malnutrition. To overcome these nutrient deficiencies, households need to diversify their diets away from calorie-dense foods such as polished rice, towards coarse cereals, pulses, and fresh vegetables. Building on prior scholarship, we argue that current agricultural and food policies discourage these dietary shifts in India, particularly among the poor. We investigate the relationship between consumption patterns among Indian households, disaggregating it between home-production, market-bought, wild collected, and accessed as subsidized food. We combine data on socio-economic factors and 89 food items from large-scale national surveys between 2004 and 2012 covering more than 160,000 households, with district-level data on crop production, infrastructure investments, indicators of social and economic development, and climate variables. We examine spatial and temporal patterns in land use and land cover in terms of its relationship to changes in dietary intake of several nutrients (calories, protein, fat, iron, zinc, calcium, and Vitamin A). Our research attempts to inform recent policy debates about introduction of coarse cereals in the current public food distribution system to affordably address malnutrition by improving dietary patterns and a move towards nutrition-sensitive agriculture.

Full talk
ID: 466 / 305R: 3
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: malaria, land use, Southeast Asia, vector-borne disease

Malaria landscape: examining the role of land cover / land use nexus in malaria transmission in Myanmar

Tatiana V Loboda1, Mark Carroll2, Amanda Hoffman-Hall1, Myaing Myaing Nyunt3, Christopher Plowe3

1University of Maryland, United States of America; 2Science Systems and Applications Inc./ NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, United State of America; 3Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, United States of America

Myanmar is an emerging democracy that bears the heaviest malaria burden in Southeast Asia, the region that has been the historical gateway for the global dissemination of drug-resistant malaria. Malaria spread is a highly complex process driven by a host of ecological, meteorological, biological, and epidemiological drivers which are in turn influenced by socio-economic conditions, population flow, military conflicts, and the healthcare system. The disease burden within Myanmar is distributed highly unevenly even at the local (village-to-village) scale and the drivers of the observed spatial patterns are not immediately apparent. Yet, to support the Myanmar Government’s and World Health Organization’s malaria elimination agenda it is critical that space-time predictive capabilities are available to drive targeted intervention campaigns. Historically satellite-data-driven malaria models primarily focused on vector habitat suitability assessments which, even when successful, were proven to be insufficient predictors of malaria prevalence. In the context of the closed-loop human-mosquito-human parasite transfer, knowledge of dynamics of human exposure to biting mosquitoes on the landscape is of crucial importance for developing predictive capabilities for malaria risk assessment. In this work, we use satellite remote sensing in combination with medical and socio-economic surveys of subclinical malaria and entomological surveys to explore the role of land cover and land use as indicators of both human exposure and vector hazard in malaria risk. Our results indicate that at the individual level, malaria prevalence is highest within the working-age population. This, in combination with very low levels of malaria prevalence in children under 10-years of age, indicates that malaria transmission is occurring in areas removed from the immediate village settings and the occupational exposure can be linked to land use. In addition, our results show that the rate of land cover change may be linked to the high rates of malaria prevalence at the village scale.

Full talk
ID: 791 / 305R: 4
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: land-use change, urbanization, Lyme disease, United States

Urbanization, land-use change and human health: an exploration about human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern United States

Liying Guo, Liping Di

Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems/ George Mason University, United States of America

Figuring out the role of urbanization and land-use changes in the increased human Lyme disease cases is of particular importance to public health. Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne disease transmitted the pathogen by the infected tick acquiring. The confirmed annual LD cases have continued to increase since Centers for Disease Control (CDC) begun to record the LD cases. Currently LD is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the United States, mostly concentrated in the Northeast and Upper Midwest with 96% of reported LD cases. According to CDC, the confirmed LD cases for entire U.S. during the five-year period from 1992-1996 were 59,363 and that from 2007-2011 were 133,249, a two-time increase. However, phenomenal increase of confirmed cases has been reported in the suburban sprawl counties of the Northeast megalopolis along the I-95 corridor. In Metro-DC area, Fairfax and Loudoun counties of Virginia and Montgomery and Howard counties of Maryland all reported more than 10-times increases in the confirmed LD cases during the same period. Coincidently, those counties were also the hotspots of land use changes due to urban expansion. Meanwhile, traditional mature urban areas, such as DC and Baltimore city, experienced few increases or even decrease of LD cases. Therefore, what is the role of land use changes in the increase of LD cases? What causes the dramatic contrast in the LD cases between the rapid urbanizing counties and the mature urban area? To answer these questions, this study tested a set of hypotheses about the relationship between urbanization, land-use changes and the number of LD cases in the Metro-DC area. The different patterns in the increase of the LD cases between the mature urban areas and the urbanizing counties provide a hint on using land-use changes and associated landscape indices to identify the environmental causes for the phenomenal increase of LD. This study is benefit for lowering or mitigating zoonotic threat driven by land-use change through early detection and knowledge-based land use planning.

Full talk
ID: 624 / 305R: 5
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: nutrition security, food trade, sustainable diets, human health

Global nutrition metabolism: trends and patterns of dietary nutrient production and trade

Ozge Geyik, Brett Bryan, Michalis Hadjikakou

Deakin University, Australia

The quantity and quality of food consumption have changed substantially over the last two decades. The triple burden of malnutrition – the coexistence of hunger, micronutrient deficiency and obesity – has become more prevalent around the world. Despite a growing focus on the nutritional aspect of global food supplies, historical trends in the stock, production, a variety of uses (e.g. feed and seed), and net trade balance of nutrients are yet to be fully understood. Given the increasing volumes of international food trade – from 16% to 25% of total production between 2009 and 2014 – a better understanding of the dynamics of nutrient flows and their links to land systems is of critical importance for research and policy-making.

Current literature provides a time-limited understanding of nutrient availability using highly aggregated food categories such as vegetables, animals, and seafood. It also suggests that international trade may be a contributing factor in global nutrition security. This study analyses the spatial and temporal trends of global nutrient availability with fine-level production and trade data of crops, livestock, and aquaculture during 1990-2016. It then, evaluates corresponding nutritional values produced locally, re-distributed via trade, and the final balance after stocks, losses and other uses are accounted for. Finally, the study analyses the trends in country-specific nutrient adequacy as the share of people who are provided with Recommended Dietary Intake as defined by the World Health Organization.

We expect to find significant but differentiated trends among different food groups and regions and to identify key crops and trade flows associated with different nutrients and changing patterns over time.

As one of the strong determinants of human health, nutrition security requires nuanced consideration in land system decisions. Outcomes of this study are also important for advancing knowledge on environmental aspects of nutrition security as the next step forward. Furthermore, given the observed changes in the nutritional content of a variety of crops (such as wheat and rice) with the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, understanding the flows and re-distribution patterns of nutrients is essential for decision-making in agricultural and aquacultural production, and trade.

Flash talk
ID: 635 / 305R: 6
308R Mixed-methods approaches to identify and include the peoples’ needs in modeling urban spaces and their settings
Keywords: ABM, deprived urban areas, mixed methods, remote sensing, ethnography

A holistic perspective on modelling deprived urban areas

Nina Schwarz1, Mike Lees2, Karin Pfeffer1, Debraj Roy2

1University of Twente, the Netherlands; 2Computational Science Lab, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands

A vast amount of the world’s urban population is living in deprived urban areas, aka slums. With much of the future urban population growth projected for Africa and Asia, managing deprived urban areas will likely remain a major challenge also in the future. In this talk, we will thus focus on studying deprived urban areas, using the lens of complex systems thinking. Our starting point is the current state of the art in agent-based modelling (ABM) of deprived urban areas as one of the methods of complexity science. ABMs model systems in a bottom-up approach; for instance, location choices of residents can result in spatial patterns of deprivation and/or urban land use change at the settlement or city level. Building and validating such models requires significant temporal and spatial data and other contextual information. Qualitative ethnographic work and spatial mapping of deprived areas through remote sensing can contribute here: Ethnographic work with its manifold methods such as interviews, analysing biographies or participatory observation has, for instance, revealed that deprived areas are not homogenous – people’s needs are very different even within the same locality, and they might face multiple deprivations at once. Complementary to the rich level of detail about individuals or families provided by ethnographic work, remote sensing contributes through mapping urban land use and urban structures, for instance, building density and roof materials as indicators for open spaces and housing quality. Combining these methods does not solely benefit building ABMs and analysing their outputs, but leads to a holistic, mixed-methods approach for better understanding the development of deprived urban areas. With such a holistic approach, all domains could benefit from each other. For example, ABMs can serve as virtual laboratories for testing hypotheses originally developed in ethnographic studies.

1:15pm - 2:45pm361N: Policy and governance of illicit and/or clandestine transactions and land-use changes
Session Chair: Elizabeth Tellman
Session Chair: Nicholas Magliocca
ID: 718 / 361N: 1
361N Policy and governance of illicit and/or clandestine transactions and land-use changes (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Indonesia for Sale

Tom Johnson

The Gecko Project, United Kingdom

The Gecko Project is an investigative journalism initiative established to shine a light on the corruption driving land grabs and the destruction of tropical rainforests. It seeks to create and maintain a sense of urgency over the role of large land deals, predominantly for food production, in some of the most pressing global challenges: climate change, the collapse of biodiversity, food security, and the rights of indigenous peoples and other rural communities. We aim to achieve this through the production and promotion of in-depth, high-quality and accessible journalism. The Gecko Project was established by Earthsight-

ID: 683 / 361N: 2
361N Policy and governance of illicit and/or clandestine transactions and land-use changes (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

The use of shadow companies to circumvent market demands for palm oil sustainability

Tim Steinweg

Aidenvironment, Chain Reaction Research

In 2013, large palm oil traders and refiners adopted No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation (NDPE) policies. Oil palm plantation companies that supply these traders/refiners are expected to act in line with these policies, and non-compliance can result in suspension and exclusion. As of 2017, 74 percent of Indonesian and Malaysian refining capacity is covered by such policies. Several plantation companies responded to these market demands by restructuring their business, and placing controversial assets in related entities or hiding their beneficial ownership. This allows them to service market segmenets that demand sustainability, while holding on to controversial but valuable assets.

Full talk
ID: 760 / 361N: 3
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: corruption, illicit flows, elites, urban land, Sustainable Development Goals

An analysis of land corruption and illicit flows

Farai Mutondoro

Transparency International Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe

While there is some global recognition that the land sector is susceptible to corruption, the relationship between land corruption and illicit flows remains a topic least explored. This is however despite some of the early warning signs such as numerous examples from the Panama and Paradise Papers on the extent to which the “politically exposed person” and power business elites with interest in large-scale agri-business, mining and real-estate business are linked implicated in a number of land and property scandals. The accelerated demand for land all over the world and rising land value heightens the risk of corruption and illicit flows. A 2009 UN Habitat study noted 77% of survey respondents in African cities and 61% in Asian cities believe public office holders benefit most from urban reforms due to corruption (UN Habitat 2009). Land and property value aremain driver of rising inequality (Alvaredo et al. 2017, Stiglitz 2015, Rognlie 2014). Far from being a problem in the developing world, corruption and clandestine transactions in the land sector are a global phenomenon. The Panama paper revealed that 2,800Mossack Fonseca companies appear on a U.Kland registry list of overseas property owners dating from 2014. In London, 36,000 plots (5,7km2) are owned by shell companies. Between 2008 and 2014, roughly 30% of condos in big Manhattan developments were sold either to foreign investors, often shell companies or Limited Liability Companies. Sustainable Developmental Goal 16 provides a framework to address issues of corruption. Through this paper we seek to provide some answers as well as leverage dialogue on such questions as i) what kind of illicit economic links to land require more research? Ii) what policies are needed to ensure data on these transactions could be made more available? and iii) What are possible or existing governance structures (formal and informal) that could be leveraged or need to be built. The response to these questions is informed by Transparency International ‘s Land and Corruption in Africa Programme which has been implemented for the past 4 years in Kenya, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Ghana, Uganda, South Africa, Cameroon, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

3:00pm - 4:15pm310R: Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Session Chair: Enrico Celio
Session Chair: Yu-Pin Lin
Session Chair: Wan-Yu Lien
Session Chair: Li-Pei Peng
Full talk
ID: 329 / 310R: 1
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: Europe, ILM initiatives

Integrated landscape management initiatives in europe: an overview

Maria Garcia-Martin, Tobias Plieninger

University of Göttingen, Germany

A new paradigm in landscape management is needed as an alternative to the prevailing single-sector-oriented approaches that generally lead to mono-functional landscapes and environmental degradation. Integrated landscape management (ILM) initiatives could offer this alternative. In a coordinated effort with the EcoAgriculture Partners we carried out a systematic review of over 70 local and regional ILM initiatives in Europe so as to identify their characteristics, constraints, and successes. The results of this study indicate these initiatives can offer opportunities for novel partnerships seeking to collaboratively manage landscapes for multifunctionality. However, lack of representation of relevant stakeholder groups and insufficient legal and long-term financial support have been hindering their potential as agents of change for landscape sustainability in Europe. Developing monitoring strategies that demonstrate their success and contributions to landscape sustainability could help increases the legal and financial support they need.

Three years after we finished the European review of ILM initiatives this session of the GLP offers an opportunity to address this challenge by asking the important question: “how can outcomes of ILM initiatives and the quality of their process by monitored and evaluated?” We will use this space to on the one hand, share the main finings of our research regarding characteristics of European ILM initiatives, with a special focus on their self-reported challenges and opportunities; and on the other hand, to suggest ways forward to improve the evaluation of their outcomes.

Full talk
ID: 464 / 310R: 2
212R Landscape ecological and social-ecological approaches in agro-ecological system
Keywords: organic agriculture, socio-ecological systems, sustainability, land use, farmers

The varied contributions of organic agriculture to socio-ecological sustainability in Canada

Susanna E. Klassen, Navin Ramankutty, Hannah Wittman

University of British Columbia, Canada

Organic agriculture is proposed as a solution to many food systems challenges, including improving environmental problems such as biodiversity loss, and providing better conditions for farm workers. At a global scale, organic agriculture has also been shown to improve pest control, contribute to yield stabilization, and increase profitability of farming, but these benefits are often geographically variable, and dependent on the socio-ecolgical context and the specific practices used by farmers (Seufert and Ramankutty 2017). Organic agriculture is now a recognized policy framework with established legislation to limit chemically-intensive farming practices, and global organic acreage increased by 15% between 2014 and 2015. Yet, there are important knowledge gaps about the extent to which organic farmers are using environmental best practices (e.g. inter-cropping and crop rotations) versus following jurisdictional regulations regarding synthetic inputs. There is growing evidence that organic agriculture should not be conflated with sustainable agriculture, because organic standards do not directly regulate practices that facilitate either ecologically-beneficial management practices or the social welfare of workers (Seufert et al. 2017). Canada hosts the fifth largest organic market globally, valued at $5.4 billion in 2017, and the number of organic farms has been increasing steadily amidst declines in the total number of farmers nationally. This research uses data from the agricultural census and interviews with industry stakeholders to examine trends in the adoption of sustainable management practices and structure of organic farms across Canada relative to non-organic. The study finds that while overall organic farms are using more sustainable management practices compared to non-organic farms, the uptake of these practices varies with farm size, and by context. This research increases our understanding of the varied contributions of organic agriculture to socio-ecological sustainability.

Full talk
ID: 324 / 310R: 3
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: impact assessment, remote sensing, GIS, ecosystem services, rural landscape

Measuring landscape performance over time; a space odyssey?

Louise Willemen, Trinidad Del Rio, Andy Nelson

University of Twente - ITC, Netherlands, The

Globally, rural areas are changing at a vast pace, surpassing planetary boundaries, and facing human development challenges, such as widespread land degradation and resource conflicts. Humans are the main driver of change in the new geological epoch in which we live, the Anthropocene. While the role of humans in degrading rural areas is well-documented and overwhelming, robust, quantitative evidence on the positive human impact to improve the rural landscape is almost entirely absent. This is bad news. The more evidence we have, the wiser decisions on new actions, adaptive management, and resource allocation can be made to drive the urgent improvements of our rural areas.

Spatial data availability and quality is increasing rapidly. How, when and for what can these data be used to measure the effect of integrated landscape interventions over time? Integrated interventions address multiple objectives with intended actions that aim to improve both living conditions for people and nature. These translate into actions in which human needs are addressed by management of the natural environment, with only a minor role for abiotic infrastructures. The concept of ecosystem services, defined as the contributions of nature to humans, links the social with the ecological system and is therefore used as entry point for evaluating integrated landscape interventions.

We will provide an example of an ex-post evaluation based on remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) information to visualize and assess landscape conditions in the rural Baviaanskloof Hartland Conservancy, South Africa. Since 2005, several interventions have been implemented here to overcome decades of small livestock farming which has led to extensive land degradation and loos in income. Interventions included revegetating of degraded areas, long term livestock exclusion and essential oil production as an alternative livelihood to goat and sheep farming; or a combination of these. Together with the project leads from LivingLand we selected six ecosystem services linked to the interventions objectives. Using field observations we calibrated RS Sentinel-2 vegetation indices combined with GIS data, which we used to map the selected ecosystem services. This approach allowed us to compare intervened and non-intervened sites over time, especially those interventions with a strong relation to vegetation.

Full talk
ID: 666 / 310R: 4
212R Landscape ecological and social-ecological approaches in agro-ecological system
Keywords: Cultural landscape, Collaborative planning, Participatory monitoring, indicators of resilience, Satoyama Initiative

Participatory planning and monitoring for integrated landscape management: A case study of eastern rural Taiwan

Kuang-Chung Lee, Shao Yu Yan

National Dong-Hwa University, Taiwan

Landscapes can be regarded as ‘a culture–nature link.’ Many living examples of the world are rich in natural and cultural values and have proven sustainable over centuries because of the maintenance by local communities. Satoyama, a traditional socio-ecological production landscape (SEPL) provides a functional linkage between paddy fields and the associated environment with lots of ecosystem services. Conservation and revitalization of SEPLs needs a more participatory and comprehensible approach, so that local people in the area and other stakeholders can be involved in the planning and management processes However, there has been a lack of empirical research to develop such kind of approaches.

The study aims to analyze the processes and outcomes of the innovative ‘Forest-River-Village-Sea Ecoagriculture Initiative’ launched from October 2016 to Dec 2017 in Xinshe village, Hualien, Taiwan. Inspired by the ideas of the Satoyama Initiative and the ecoagriculture, since October 2016, the case study area has started to be planned and managed collectively with help of an area-based multi-stakeholder platform composed of about 20 representatives from local indigenous communities, governmental institutions, the local school, academics, NGOs and green enterprises. Both the Task Force and Multi-Stakeholder Platform Meetings employs an integrated landscape and community-based approach to enhancing sustainable use of biodiversity by the communities and resilience of SEPLs. A short-to-long-term action plan for the Initiative was drew up collectively by stakeholders in April 2017 in line with the framework of three-fold approach to the Satoyama Initiative. To monitor the progress and outcomes of the Initiative, the research team adopted the set of indicators of resilience in SEPLs (UNU-IAS et al. 2014) and conducted a series of workshops with local people to evaluate 20 resilience indicators as well as figure out strategies for enhancing resilience with respect to each indicator. The suggested revisions of the existing action plan for the Initiative proposed by the local indicator task group were successfully brought into the Multi-Stakeholder Platform Meeting for approval.

Flash talk
ID: 390 / 310R: 5
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: Landscape approach, Participatory method, Landscape governance

Assessing landscape governance: a participatory approach

Roderick Zagt1, Maartje de Graaf1, Louise Buck2, Seth Shames2

1Tropenbos International, Netherlands, The; 2EcoAgriculture Partners, United States

From local to global and from production to conservation, in any given landscape we find many different functions and interests. For sustainable landscapes it is key to understand how these interests are balanced in rules and decision-making processes, and how this influences the behavior of actors in the landscape.

Tropenbos International and EcoAgriculture Partners developed the Landscape Governance Assessment as an approach to facilitate the participatory analysis of the rules and decision-making processes in the landscape. It allows stakeholders to better understand the governance of their landscape, and to collaboratively identify opportunities for improvements. Tropenbos International has already conducted the Landscape Governance Assessment in 15 landscapes across 9 countries. In this session we will introduce the tool and share experiences with its application.

Full talk
ID: 278 / 310R: 6
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: transformative landscape approaches, co-production of knowledge, landscape performance, theory of change, Southeast Asia

Measuring impacts of transformative landscape approaches to agroecology: lessons from Laos

Jean-Christophe Castella1,2,3, Pascal Lienhard1,3, Khameun Nandee3, Thisadee Chounlamountry4, Sonnasack Phaipasith5, Sisavath Phimmasone3,4, Chloé Aussaresses1,3, Robin Collombet1,3

1Centre de coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CIRAD - UPR AÏDA, Montpellier, France; 2Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, IRD Montpellier, France; 3Eco-Friendly Intensification and Climate resilient Agricultural Systems (EFICAS) Project, (DALaM-CIRAD), Vientiane, Lao PDR; 4Department of Agricultural Land Management (DALaM), Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), Vientiane, Lao PDR; 5Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, National University of Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR

In the northern uplands of Laos, landscape mosaics and people livelihoods rely on complex interactions, preventing the straightforward adoption of sustainable land management techniques despite their demonstrated performances as compared to (i) swidden systems with shortening fallow periods or (ii) monocropping systems based on the use of chemical inputs and/or mechanical tillage. To facilitate the dissemination of agroecology innovations in remote upland villages, the Eco-Friendly Intensification and Climate resilient Agricultural Systems (EFICAS) project is engaging with village communities into landscape level transformations of agricultural production and resource management. Since 2014, the project staff works closely with local communities on a theory of change process that promotes agroecology practices such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry, system of rice intensification, or integrated farming. Local stakeholders envision their desirable village landscape through participatory land use planning and then engage into successive learning loops to co-produce their own development pathways towards the collectively agreed land use plan.

An impact monitoring systems has been setup since the beginning of the project to demonstrate the effectiveness of transformative landscape approaches on achieving sustainable development goals, including climate change mitigation and adaptation. We selected twelve pairs of similar villages covering the large diversity of agroecological and socioeconomic contexts found in the study region. Interventions were organized in one village of each pair while the other village was used as control. We co-produced the monitoring indicators with local communities to make sure they were meaningful to them and actionable to adjust the interventions all along the transformative process. The participatory monitoring system consisted in three successive rounds of data collection organized in 2014 (baseline), 2016 and 2018 in both intervention and control villages. We co-designed and then used the EFICAS role-play game to explore with farmers scenarios of changes and monitor social learning along the transformative pathway.


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