Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Location: MB-106
Main Building, 1st floor, east wing, 78 seats
Date: Wednesday, 24/Apr/2019
11:15am - 12:45pm207R: New actors, global narratives, and renewed goals shaping farmland investment decisions
Session Chair: Dilini Abeygunawardane
Session Chair: Angela Kronenburg García
Session Chair: Mairon Giovani Bastos Lima
Full talk
ID: 731 / 207R: 1
207R New actors, global narratives, and renewed goals shaping farmland investment decisions
Keywords: Commodity frontiers, investment decision making, land rent, Development Finance Institutes (DFI), Southern and Eastern Africa

Development financiers: The new agents driving African commodity frontiers

Dilini Abeygunawardane1, Angela Kronenburg García1,2, Patrick Meyfroidt1,3

1Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium; 2University of Eduardo Mondlane, Maputo, Mozambique; 3F.R.S. - FNRS, Brussels, Belgium

We investigated the investment decisions of transnational agricultural and forestry companies who have invested in multiple locations across emerging frontiers in Southern and Eastern Africa. Our sample included over 30 transnational companies investing in agriculture or forestry in Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and South Africa. We conducted >90 semi-structured interviews covering the entire chain of managers in a company from the farm or the plantation managers, to the country and regional managers, to those responsible for and shaping the decisions at the highest level, including CEOs, shareholders and investors in Africa and Europe. We collected data on the company profile, business model, existing and upcoming portfolios, agro-ecological, socio-economic, political and institutional characteristics of the different operation sites, perceived opportunities, constraints, and potential benefits of investing in different locations, the influence of these factors on past investments decisions, and sources of finance. We used a Bayesian Belief Network to model the effect of visions, existing ventures, and place-based suitability assessments on the investment choices of different investors. Our results highlight the importance of a group of actors, the development financiers, who are largely absent in land systems research. They are playing a key role in shaping the African commodity frontiers, by offering financing solutions in regions where they constitute the dominant, if not the only, source of capital. In a market environment otherwise unfavourable for commodity agriculture, these financing solutions create and sustain a higher rent. The findings suggest that land rent theories used in explaining frontier development may benefit from a deeper understanding of how and why distinct groups of actors, whose objectives extend beyond maximising production and profit, shape the rent conditions for agricultural development on the frontier.

Full talk
ID: 369 / 207R: 2
207R New actors, global narratives, and renewed goals shaping farmland investment decisions
Keywords: Soy, Cerrado, Land, Brazil, Speculation

The secrets of soy and farmland investments in Brazil’s last Cerrado frontier

Mairon Giovani Bastos Lima

Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden

The cultivation of soybeans, the world’s most traded agricultural commodity, has been expanding at astounding rates in South America. Brazil, in particular, placed itself as the top global producer and exporter of the crop in 2018. If soy occupied about 1.3 million hectares (Mha) of cropland in the country in 1970, that had grown to 33Mha by 2016 and is still expected to increase to 45Mha by 2025. This is to happen mostly in the Cerrado biome, Brazil’s highly-biodiverse savannah ecosystem, over degraded pastures but also over native vegetation. After establishing itself as the dominant crop in Brazil’s Center-West Region, soy now expands over the last remaining portions of the Cerrado, a region that has been dubbed as MATOPIBA – after the initials of the four states that compose it (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia). While the private sector – and a mostly supportive government – argue that soybean expansion helps provide for global food security, local development and Brazil’s economy through exports, most civil society organizations point to the social and ecological damages inflicted by soybean expansion. Some important elements of this land conversion, however, have been mostly absent from either narrative. Based on key-informant interviews in Brazil and Europe, this study shows how both land assetization and price speculation have played a pivotal role in soybean’s expansion in the country. Far from being simply a story of agriculture or food production versus ecosystem conservation, the picture reveals to be far more complex, involving the financialization of agriculture, hidden but important actors, and crucial lessons for the governance of sustainable land use.

Flash talk
ID: 854 / 207R: 3
207R New actors, global narratives, and renewed goals shaping farmland investment decisions
Keywords: farmland investments, institutional investors, farmland assetization, investment decisions, non-agricultural investors

The evolution of farmland investments by institutional investors

Anna Hajdu1, Oane Visser2

1IAMO Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies, Germany; 2International Institute of Social Studies (ISS), Erasmus University Rotterdam

There is currently a common understanding that the 2007-2008 food and financial crises spurred the investment decisions of non-agricultural investors, such as institutional investors, in farmland as a financial asset. At the same time, investors were motivated by the boom in commodity and food prices for a “rediscovery” of the agricultural sector (Deininger 2011; Edelman and Leon 2013). The year 2007 is conceptualized as the watershed food crisis year that prompted a land rush everywhere across the globe. For this reason, in the land grab literature, Edelman and Leon (2013) point to the need of analyzing land deals from a historical perspective, to understand the context and background on which new land interests occur.

The historical evolution of institutional farmland investments has not been analyzed so far in the academic literature. Based on desk research we identify that institutional farmland investment emerged as early as the 1970s in the US and gradually developed until present. Institutional farmland investments evolved as institutional structures in the US changed or, in the framing of the land grab literature, as the result of earlier social and material processes, pre-existing social formations and local and regional particularities (Edelman and Leon 2013). As such, the spaces in which new farmland investments occur have a historical and social imprint.

Results from forty interviews conducted by the author in Romania in the period 2015-2017 confirm that certain categories of non-agricultural investors emerged with the food and financial crises but that different other categories of non-agricultural investors emerged as early as the 1990s. This paper shows that the conceptualization of 2007 as the watershed food crisis year that prompted a land rush everywhere across the globe is incomprehensive as it neglects further historical and institutional development factors that may influence the unfolding of farmland investments in a certain country.

Flash talk
ID: 878 / 207R: 4
207R New actors, global narratives, and renewed goals shaping farmland investment decisions
Keywords: Soy, Frontier, Commodity, agro-industrial trader

The new Paraguayan frontier: How agro-industrial traders have shaped Paraguayan soybean expansion

James Henderson

University of Bonn, Germany

Modern South American agricultural frontiers are increasingly shaped by the sourcing and investment decisions of agro-industrial trading companies. These actors facilitate the globalized production to consumption systems of agricultural commodities, which in turn, result in localized socio-environmental and land use changes in production regions. However, the role that agro-industrial traders play in shaping agricultural frontiers and the impacts that their heterogeneous sourcing and investment decisions have on production regions are opaque and poorly understood. Furthermore, traditional theories of agricultural frontier expansion focus on the dynamics of agricultural frontiers shaped by smallholders, offering little insight into the dynamics of contemporary agro-industrial commodity frontier expansion. This study advances current theories of commodity frontier dynamics by applying the case of Paraguayan soybean expansion between the years 2007-2016 to a recent conceptual framework that combines political economy and neoclassical economics to identify contemporary drivers of commodity frontier expansion. We then review how these contemporary drivers and incentives impact the sourcing and investment decisions of agro-industrial traders in Paraguay by applying a spatially explicit material flow analysis of soybean production to consumption via agro-industrial trader, and reviewing these drivers with yearly changes in sourcing and expansion by individual trading companies, in addition to field interviews of trading companies and other relevant actor groups. Our goal is to better understand the drivers and dynamics that have shaped contemporary soybean expansion in Paraguay, to understand the role heterogeneous agro-industrial traders have played in this expansion, and to understand which drivers have had the most impact in their sourcing and investment decisions. This study seeks to help create a better understanding of contemporary soybean expansion dynamics, in order to identify cost effective sustainability intervention opportunities to mitigate negative externalities of Paraguayan soybean production and trade at a local level.

Full talk
ID: 636 / 207R: 5
207R New actors, global narratives, and renewed goals shaping farmland investment decisions
Keywords: large-scale land acquisition, anti-politics, commons, Corporate Social Responsibility, development discourse

The drama of the grabbed commons: CSR as anti-politics machines and local responses

Jean-David Gerber1, Tobias Haller2

1Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland; 2Institute of Social Anthropology, University of Bern, Switzerland

In the current debates on large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA), the promise of material benefits through integration in global markets, land titling, as well as accompanying compensation measures – in particular voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives – hides the fact that LSLA are not the win-win undertakings depicted by prevalent neoliberal development discourses. We use James Ferguson’s Anti-Politics Machine to critically interrogate the development discourses used to promote LSLA. LSLA are expected to lead to the conversion of some kinds of resources (land, water, biodiversity, wind…) into others (high-value crops, monetary resources or infrastructures…). While some commons disappear (pastures, forests, hunting grounds…) other are created through CSR measures (infrastructure, irrigation channels, special community funds, classrooms or dispensaries).

This paper explores the nexus between LSLA, anti-politics and CSR. Focusing on the public and private actors involved in – or impacted by – LSLA, we recount the drama of the grabbed commons. Combining approaches of New Institutionalism and Political Ecology, we ask: how is the access to resources impacted by the dissolution of existing commons, recognizing that many dimensions of power operate in an investment project, including gender, migration background, social status, age and lineage? Do new commons created by LSLA compensate for the loss of old commons? If the new commons do not compensate for the loss of old commons, why are people not raising their voices to preserve them?

Our empirical evidence from detailed case studies in Ghana, Malawi, Morocco, and Tanzania shows that, under the promise of development, a growing number of land users are deprived from access to commons; at the same time local to global elites are increasingly interested in assuring high returns of capital investment. Powerful discourses of development, women empowerment, wasteland productivity increase, etc. serving as anti-politics machines hide increased state control and asymmetric power relations.

Full talk
ID: 301 / 207R: 6
207R New actors, global narratives, and renewed goals shaping farmland investment decisions
Keywords: foreign investment in agriculture, domestic investment in agriculture, agricultural expansion, inequality, flex-crops

Inequality, investment and agricultural expansion in tropical regions: the effect of domestic versus foreign capital

Michele Graziano Ceddia

University of Bern, Switzerland

Agricultural expansion remains the most important proximate cause of deforestation in the Global South, particularly in tropical areas. Over the last ten years there has been increasing attention to the role of foreign investments in processes of large scale land acquisitions in the Global South, which in turn may have spurred agricultural expansion and deforestation. Moreover, it has been pointed out that after the 2008 global financial crisis and the consequent decline in financial returns, investments in land (including both agricultural and urban uses) have become increasingly attractive. In this context, extremely wealthy individual may have played a significant role by diverting their investment from the financial sector towards land and other real assets. This in turn suggests a potential effect of rising inequality in stimulating demand for land. In this paper I address these issues by looking at 21 countries in Latin America and South East Asia, two regions heavily affected by large-scale land acquisitions, agricultural expansion and deforestation. I deploy a number of multivariate statistical models to assess: a) the drivers of domestic and foreign investment in agriculture, with a particular interest to the role of inequality and rates of return and b) the impact of domestic and foreign investment (alongside a number of other explanatory factors) on agricultural expansion, with a particular focus to the expansion of flex-crops area. With respect to the former point, the underlying hypothesis is that investment in agriculture is increasing in the level of inequality and in the rate of returns to agriculture. With respect to the second point, I hypothesize that both domestic and foreign investment play a role in driving agricultural expansion. The preliminary results suggest that domestic investment is positively correlated with domestic inequality, while exerting a significantly larger impact on agricultural expansion than foreign investment.

2:00pm - 3:30pm304RA: Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change - Part A
Session Chair: Sandra Lavorel
Session Chair: Bruno Locatelli
Session Chair: Matthew John Colloff
Full talk
ID: 659 / 304RA: 1
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: social-ecological system, ecosystem services, adaptation, pathways

Analyzing social-ecological systems for exploring adaptation pathways in land systems

Bruno Locatelli1,2

1CIRAD, University of Montpellier (France); 2CIFOR (Peru)

The interaction of climate change with other global drivers of change requires new frameworks and approaches that can help people implement adaptation responses. The TARA framework (Transformative Adaptation Research Alliance) is based on three core components: adaptation services (the benefits to people from increased capacity to respond to change provided by the capacity of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change), the values, rules and knowledge perspective (VRK, a system for diagnosing the aspects of societal decision-making contexts which enable or constrain adaptation), and adaptation pathways (an adaptive decision process for informing and sequencing adaptation decisions and actions under circumstances where goals are ambiguous, decision-making is contested, social-ecological systems are complex and highly dynamic and trajectories are unpredictable). In this presentation, we propose to operationalize this framework using case studies in the Peruvian mountains. We applied system analysis tools and developed causal loop diagrams of social-ecological systems, using different methods and sources of information, including participatory work with local and regional stakeholders. The system representations were used to identify drivers of changes, key adaptive capacity and vulnerability, and major ecosystem and adaptation services. The system representations were also used to simulate possible future pathways. Different representations of the social-ecological systems illustrated different worldviews and led to the identification of different drivers and pathways. Our findings revealed that diverse views on a social-ecological system, reflecting the diversity of people’s values, enabled visioning multiple adaptation pathways. The multiplicity of adaptation pathways is a way to foster discussions among stakeholders about adaptation decisions and actions.

Full talk
ID: 513 / 304RA: 2
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Adaptive pathways, Migration

Migration as transformation? Interacting adaptation and migration pathways and their impacts on ecosystems and people



Mobility in its different forms has been always an important feature of societies in different contexts. In recent decades, however, new patterns of human mobility by larger populations over wider geographical extent have been interpreted in opposite ways. Migration has been described either as an adaptive strategy or as a failure of adaptation to environmental, political or socioeconomic changes. It has also been considered either as “development from below” or as a failure of state and development, and either as an emancipatory pathway or as a passive reaction to change. Hence migration, a well-established livelihood strategy is mostly associated with tensions, the politics of fear, and the separation between the privileged and the poor. In addition and beside the fact that mobility and migration induce significant demographic changes in rural and urban areas, yet links between migration or mobility and landscape or ecosystems have been overlooked in the literature on migration and vice versa migration and mobility has been overlooked in the environmental literature.

To fill those gaps and to capture the diversity of linkages between migration, adaptation and ecosystems, we analyzed adaptation and migration pathways in several cases studies in drylands. We explored the impacts and feedback loops of different migratory patterns on ecosystems and adaptive pathways of people, including the long term different impacts of remittances on wellbeing. We also analyzed how knowledge, values and rules evolved along the pathways and affected ecosystems. The findings show that policies and the intervention of state agencies, development planners and local organizations should better account for mobility and migration. Learning from case studies can help develop strategies, incentives and policies that can transform landscapes and improve human wellbeing.

Full talk
ID: 818 / 304RA: 3
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: food system, wicked problems, transformation, knowledge systems

Analyzing wicked food system solutions – recommendations for more transformative food system research

Verena Seufert1,2, Graham MacDonald3, Pietro Barbieri4, Rachael Garrett5, Hermann Lotze-Campen6, Roni Neff7, Thomas Nesme8, Sam Rabin1, Mark Rounsevell1, Hannah Wittman9

1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; 2Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands; 3McGill University, Canada; 4Institut National Recherche Agronomique (INRA), France; 5Boston University, United States; 6Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; 7John Hopkins University, United States; 8University of Bordeaux Sciences Agro, France; 9University of British Columbia, Canada

Providing sufficient, safe, nutritious, and culturally-appropriate food while maintaining or improving environmental quality is a key global sustainability challenge. Solutions proposed to address this challenge need to consider multiple complex social and environmental dimensions, a plurality of stakeholder perspectives, and uncertainty in interactions across food system components at different scales. Therefore, most food system challenges are recognized as ‘wicked problems’, where clear solutions are difficult to define and truly optimal solutions may not exist. Yet, little theoretical or empirical research has explicitly addressed the ‘wickedness’ of food systems. Instead, food system challenges are typically treated like ‘tame problems’, both in research and practice, and this results in proposed food system solutions that may themselves result in unintended new problems, including conflict among stakeholders, social inequities, or displaced environmental burdens. We provide practical recommendations and present a framework to facilitate incorporating wickedness in the knowledge creation process. We identify a set of wicked characteristics that should be considered when analyzing food system solutions, present a tool to evaluate these wicked characteristics, which in turn helps to prioritize certain processes or methods in the research process, and apply this framework by using three prominent food system solutions (increased organic management in agriculture, reduced meat consumption, and reduced food waste). We then identify seven best practices that can help to account for inherent wickedness of food system solutions and to address emergent complexity and uncertainty in the knowledge creation process.

Solutions are urgently needed to address the global food system challenge, but failing to acknowledge potential wickedness could exacerbate existing problems or create new problems. Embracing wickedness in the design of food system research could be a major step toward more equitable and just interventions that reduce the likelihood of trade-offs for the environment or different stakeholders.

Full talk
ID: 280 / 304RA: 4
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Adaptation pathways, governance, agroecology, Southeast Asia

Exploring adaptation pathways to global change: lessons from failed attempts to bring agroecology to scale in Southeast Asia

Guillaume Lestrelin1, Jean-Christophe Castella1,2, Rada Kong3, Jean-Philippe Venot2, Malyne Neang4, Pascal Lienhard1, Florent Tivet1

1Centre de coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), Montpellier, France; 2Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; 3Conservation Agriculture Service Center (CASC), Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; 4Ecoland Research Center, Royal University of Agriculture (RUA), Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Agroecology is a promising way to synergize climate change mitigation and adaptation. It builds on the practices and knowledge of smallholder farmers to address food insecurity while reducing dependence on fossil fuels and avoiding land degradation. However, bringing agroecology to scale remains an important challenge when it comes to addressing the broader policy, social and economic contexts. Agroecology research and resulting evidence on what makes the application of agroecology principles successful are typically generated at small spatial scales. Policies instruments and intervention mechanisms that would create enabling conditions for local agroecological innovations on a large scale are still largely missing.

We investigated the approaches, methods and resources employed by research-development stakeholders to promote agroecological practices in Southeast Asia. We considered two dimensions related to the modalities of intervention, namely (i) push-pull interventions and (ii) transition-conversion approaches. The first dimension refers to the distinction between push interventions – where financial, technical, material and/or organizational support is provided to targeted actors allowing them to modify their practices (e.g. subsidies and farm extension work) – and pull interventions that target the broader social and economic conditions in which actors make decisions in order to favour desired practices (e.g. sensitization and price premiums, regulations on agricultural practices e.g. restricted pesticide use). The second dimension refers to a practical opposition between approaches that promote a strict conversion from one set of practices to another seen as more desirable and approaches that allow (or even plan) for a transition between different practices.

We illustrate these multiple dimensions of transformative adaptation through concrete examples related to conservation agriculture and organic farming in Laos and Cambodia.

Full talk
ID: 458 / 304RA: 5
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: agriculture; climate change; adaptation; groundwater; irrigation

Agricultural adaptation pathways - new water use conflicts?

Annelie Holzkämper1, Ole Rössler2, Fabien Cochand3, Philip Brunner3, Daniel Hunkeler3

1Agroscope, Switzerland; 2University of Bern, Switzerland; 3University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland

Climate change will profoundly alter production conditions for agriculture in Switzerland, making the need for adaptation unavoidable. Feedbacks of agricultural management adaptations on the hydrological system were not studied in Switzerland so far – leaving a potential risk of maladaptation unevaluated.

In this study, we apply a coupled modelling system (crop-hydrological-hydrogeorological) to an aquifer catchment in the Bernese Seeland (1) to evaluate impacts of climate change on future water demand for irrigation and on groundwater resources, (2) to evaluate combined effects of climate change and irrigation on groundwater resources, and (3) to explore which alternative adaptation strategies could reduce the risk of maladaptation in the long term (e.g. shifts in crop mixtures, allocation of cultivation zones).

For the most pessimistic emission pathway RCP8.5, the model results suggest that until 2099, crop productivity for most arable crops will be severely affected. Thereby, limitations through increasing temperatures are more severe than water limitations – making a shift in the varietal choice (towards varieties with higher temperature requirements) unavoidable. Considering that varieties will be adapted to increasing temperatures, net irrigation requirements will increase by up to 60% in annual mean until the end of the century. Expected impacts on agricultural production are accompanied by projected reductions in ground- and surface water resources. While annual streamflow into the aquifer catchment (Aare Hagneck) will remain on today’s level until 2070, a decrease by 13 % in comparison to (1985-2009) is projected for the end of the century (2075-2099). Thereby, a strong decrease in summer and autumn streamflow (-46% and 30%, respectively) could not be compensated by the increases during winter (+39%) and spring (+13%). Regarding changes in groundwater resources, a decrease by about 50 cm in groundwater heads in summer is projected for the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5). Participatory adaptations scenarios are developed together with local and regional stakeholders. Model evaluations reveal likely impacts of climate and managemenet changes on groundwater resources as well as agricultural production.

Full talk
ID: 739 / 304RA: 6
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Ecosystem services, Geographic Infomation Systems, service supply, Europe

Identification of spatial bundles of forest ecosystem services at the European level for governance

Francesco Orsi1, Davide Geneletti1, Marco Ciolli1, Eeva Primmer2, Liisa Varumo2

1University of Trento, Italy; 2Finnish Environment Institute, Finland

Forests provide humans and societies with a wide array of benefits – the forest ecosystem services (FES) – including supply of timber, regulation of water flows, sequestration of carbon, stabilization of slopes as well as provision of cultural and recreational opportunities. In order to safeguard such benefits, it is helpful to identify areas allowing the simultaneous provision of unique sets of services (also called bundles), which should become the target of conservation and sustainable use strategies. Identifying these areas requires the ability to map multiple ecosystem services at a relatively fine resolution and to detect common patterns in the provision of multiple services across space. Such mapping would ideally be overlaid with a mapping of the policies across space, to identify where the spatial ecosystem service bundles coincide with an existing governance regime to support ecosystem service provision.

We present a study aimed at identifying areas supporting a variety of FES bundles at the European level. The supply of various FES (i.e. biomass, carbon storage, soil stabilization, recreational opportunities) was mapped at a 1-km resolution starting from European Commission (EC) data and using Tier 1 methods (i.e. overlay and simple modeling). Unsupervised classification was used to group pixels showing similar patterns in the provision of FES, therefore representing providers of specific bundles.

Results show that similar sets of FES can be found at different locations across the continent, and provide some accurate information about the magnitude of FES supply at these locations. The proposed mapping approach may then be used to identify areas where comparable FES-based industries and initiatives may thrive or be promoted with policy. To illustrate the relevance for governance,we present an example of geographically differentiated strategic emphases, overlaid with the FES map.

Date: Thursday, 25/Apr/2019
10:45am - 12:15pm304RB: Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change - Part B
Session Chair: Matthew John Colloff
Session Chair: Bruno Locatelli
Session Chair: Sandra Lavorel
Full talk
ID: 764 / 304RB: 1
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: cultural landscape, transformation, ecosystem services, tourism, nature conservation

How does Collaborative Landscape Management (CLM) support transformative adaptation? – Lessons from a transdisciplinary case study in Germany

Jana Zscheischler1, Martina Schäfer2, Maria Busse1

1Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany; 2Centre for Technology and Society, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany

Traditional cultural landscapes are of special value not only for reasons of nature conservation and high species diversity but also because they intersect with the identity of local communities, support recreation and tourism, and preserve cultural heritage. Structural changes in rural areas threaten these unique sceneries and environments in Europe and worldwide. As a result, the question of how to maintain and manage cultural landscapes where economic benefits are not assured has become a priority in science and in practice. In this context, community-based collaborative landscape management (CLM) can be considered a promising approach and possible adaption pathway.

This presentation will show results from a transdisciplinary case study examining the preconditions and opportunities for initiating a CLM to address transformative adaptation in the biosphere reserve known as ‘Spreewald’. Over a period of five years researchers and local actors collaboratively designed and tested various innovations and solutions to adapt to landscape change.

The results indicate that due to the type of problem (landscape change) – which is characterized by complexity, beneficial linkages to a multitude of actor groups, and broad problem awareness –a CLM appears to be feasible. However, other preconditions related to social relationships among actor groups, questions of legitimate coordination and the collaborative capacity of the community are not met, thus reducing the likelihood of success. To address these challenges, we discuss the potential of transdisciplinary processes (TD) to assist local communities in establishing such a collaborative problem-solving and management approach. We show that TD is highly valuable and supportive during this critical stage of emerging collaboration.

Full talk
ID: 820 / 304RB: 2
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Rural ecosystem, resilient communities, adaptability

Development interventions and sustainable opportunities for rural livelihood in the state of uttarakhand, india

Rakhi Parijat

Miranda House, University of Delhi, India

The future of innovation lies in rural areas of the country, especially in remote hill regions of the country. There are many villages that are facing extreme crisis and are devoid of even basic facilities. In some villages people are moving en masse. They are not only abandoning their native land but leaving the productive areas to degrade.

While the growth rate in urban districts in various parts of the country especially metropolitan cities are resulting in environmental and resource degradation that is unreservedly disturbing. Yet the streams of migration continue and people from rural areas are mindlessly moving out thinking that a utopian world exists outside their homelands. However they are slowly consumed by the toxic elements of the city chemically and socially and their quality of life is seriously threatened.

The urban communities are themselves in the state of collapse and many have crossed the thresholds of physical growth. In developing country like India, the focus of development is mostly urban biased as they are considered growth centres of the economy. Indian economies are still largely based on rural landscapes, yet the market forces and mind-set continues to feed for the urban needs.

Gandhiji, however believed that India lived in its villages, and it holds true even now. The study is based on devising an innovative approach for Pauri Garhwal, one of the worst affected rural districts in Uttarakhand.

Learning from past practices, efforts should be made in creating resilient rural communities. Some concerted effort should go towards the rural areas too which have satiated the urban demands for a long time. Now it is time to return the favour back to these hinterlands to support these communities and their land systems. It will result in better adaptability and help in sustenance of these rural societies.

Full talk
ID: 396 / 304RB: 3
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Pathways, climate change, transformation, adaptation, mitigation

Transformative adaptation and mitigation to high-end climate change: moving towards a sustainable and resilient Europe

Paula Ann Harrison1, Katharina Hölscher2, Jill Jäger3, Niki Frantzeskaki2, Ian Holman4

1Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, United Kingdom; 2Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, The Netherlands; 3Independent Scholar, Austria; 4Cranfield University, United Kingdom

Transformative approaches are needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global mean temperatures below 2°C (and ideally below 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels, as well as to adapt to and cope with severe climate change impacts. This presentation describes a suite of transformative mitigation and adaptation pathways co-created with stakeholders to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change, build the capacities to respond to climate impacts and create opportunities to deliver multiple benefits from land systems. The pathways were co-created in a participatory process with diverse yet representative stakeholders from four case studies at different scales: municipal (Hungary), river basin (Iberia), national (Scotland) and European scales.

The methodology ensures that the resulting pathways are oriented towards a commonly defined sustainability vision for each case study in 2100 and take into account the time-dependent scenario conditions, societal thresholds and synergies between strategies and responses. Eighteen pathways were formulated to transition towards sustainable and low-carbon lifestyles and economies and to reduce the impacts and vulnerabilities associated with high-end scenarios. They include strategies and actions focused on technological innovation, nature-based solutions, regulations and incentives, social innovations, education and governance innovation. While the pathways follow scenario-specific logics, cross-scenario analysis identifies robust enabling conditions for addressing climate change, dealing with uncertainty and promoting sustainability and resilience. These conditions embody new types of governance capacities for integrated, participatory and long-term sustainability decision-making and planning, multi-level collaboration, governance experimentation and learning, and local self-organisation.

The pathways support decision-making by synthesising stakeholder-led knowledge on strategies, actions and capacities for designing climate action in Europe. The development of pathways helps to link adaptation, mitigation and sustainability into cross-sectoral strategies and actions which take synergies and trade-offs across scales, sectors and time into account, thus supporting more integrated policy and practice.

Full talk
ID: 640 / 304RB: 4
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Transformation, adaptation, pastoral social-ecological systems

Transformative adaptation of nomad’s land systems in different ecological zones of Mongolia

Chuluun Togtokh1, Dennis Ojima2, Davaanyam Surenkhuu3, Altanbagana Myagmarsuren4

1National University of Mongolia, Mongolia; 2Colorado State University, USA; 3Ministry of Construction and Urban Development, Mongolia; 4Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Mongolia

Pastoral systems in Mongolia have been sustainable for centuries, surviving recent changes. However, additional pressure from climate change is intersecting with social and economic changes since the transition to democracy and market economy in early 1990s. Dryland ecosystem services are diminishing due to climate change, overgrazing and decreased mobility of herders. A study of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development of pastoral social-ecological systems in Mongolia contributed for a number of outcomes from local to regional and national scales. A summary of combined scientific and traditional knowledge led to transformation of nomadic civilization towards to green civilization concept, using green technologies such renewable energy and IT. As a result, the Green Development Policy of Mongolia was developed and adopted by the Parliament of Mongolia in 2014. An adaptation to increasing climate extreme events by local herder like predicting coming zud (severe for livestock winter condition), and slaughtering 40% of livestock and storing it in his winter house, gave an idea for scientific improved zud prediction system and renewable energy driven meat storage system development for transformative adaptation of pastoral social-ecological systems “Win-Win” outcomes ecologically and socio-economically.

The Government of Mongolia is currently working on a general plan of regional settlement and development – territorial governance of land social-ecological systems. A new regional settlement planning requires land system transformation. Our proposal on transformation of land systems is to give traditional cultural landscapes in traditional community ownership, opening opportunities for sustainable development and holistic management of all natural resources such as rangelands, water, forest, wildlife etc. However, a land ownership policy has to be ecosystem specific. We need to envision possible adaptation pathways in different social-ecological zones and analyze how decision contexts should be reframed to allow new options for adaptation and sustainability of nomadic lands in Mongolia.

Full talk
ID: 529 / 304RB: 5
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Adaptation, Vision, Ecosystem services, Participatory process, Alps

Adaptation toward which future? A participatory process to describe what is a desirable future of a mountain social-ecological system in 2040.

Enora Bruley, Sandra Lavorel

Laboratoire d'ECologie Alpine - CNRS, France

Mountain social-ecological systems (SES) provide a wide range of material and immaterial ecosystem services that people benefit to ensure their quality of life. To maintain it in the future, SES will have to adapt due to global change pressures. In particular, adaptation towards sustainability will require societal changes in the regulation of land systems and ecosystem services co-production under climate change. Understanding these mechanisms of change is critical to construct adaptation pathways. To that end, place-based and participatory processes are relevant to operationalize and implement reflection about adaptation by focusing on local knowledge and perceptions of key issues of a system. Such adaptation strategies first require setting a goal to be achieved in the future for social-ecological systems. Co-design this vision underscore what is perceived as a desirable future by mountain people for their region. The MountainPaths project implements a participatory process involving a wide range of local and regional stakeholders in the Pays de la Meije (French Alps). We used a normative scenario approach for questioning stakeholders about their vision for their region in 2040. Their vision informs about desirable values, quality of life and a range of socioeconomic activities under climate change constraints and was obtained through workshops, focus groups and interviews. Building this vision with stakeholders around the desired socioeconomic activities in 2040 provided a broad view of the goals to be achieved for this SES in 2040. First by highlighting future demand for ecosystem services and adaptation services linked to these activities and resultant landscape and land use changes. Potential synergies and conflicts between desirable goals could also be identified. Moreover, while co-designing the vision, stakeholder’s narratives gives important insights about changes needed in values, local and regional governance and land management associated with the vision. These elements will be crucial for adaptation pathways construction.

Full talk
ID: 422 / 304RB: 6
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: Livelihood, Serious game, Alps, Adptation pathways

Livelihood portfolios and adaptation pathways in response to global changes in the Alps: reflecting on potential pathways with stakeholders using serious games

Nicolas Salliou1, Enora Bruley2, Sandra Lavorel2, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey1

1ETH Zürich, Switzerland; 2LECA-CNRS, France

Mountain systems are particularly vulnerable to natural climate harshness, exposure to natural risks, as well as socio-economic changes. Traditionally, inhabitants of these systems tend to rely on a diversified portfolio of activities to spread the exposure to risks. Climate and other global changes to come add another level of difficulty for the livelihood. In particular, if not properly considered in advance, some of these changes can undermine key future ecosystem services which would reduce the range of potentially available livelihood strategies, and thus limit inhabitants’ capacities for future adaptation. Bearing in mind challenges to come, our research explores together with stakeholders from Alpine communities if they could identify adaptation pathways leading to a satisfactory future according to said stakeholders. In particular, we want to see how the portfolio of activities, which actually sustain their livelihood, may have to adapt and contribute to the availability of services necessary for such adaptation. To do so, we designed together with mountain inhabitants a serious game on adaptation pathways where players can explore diverse portfolios of activities in order to sustain their livelihoods, collectively ensure key services, as well as reacting and adapting to climate and global changes up to the year 2040. Debriefing with players opens a discussion on their in-game success or failure to find pathways to achieve their desired vision for 2040 (which inhabitants previously set in participatory workshops). This serious game fosters discussions on major predicaments such as landscape abandonment, climate and global change risk exposures, and the future of tourism and agriculture. It especially highlights the tension between individual strategies for sustaining their livelihood and the collective investment necessary to sustain key adaptation services. Such an approach can contribute to meaningful discussions among mountain stakeholders and policy makers concerning critical decisions for climate and sustainable development governance decisions.


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