Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Date: Friday, 26/Apr/2019
8:30am - 9:45amTK-1: Thematic Keynote Theme 1: “What are the visions for the planetary land system? Land as the nexus for addressing global challenges”

VIDEO - Kate Calvin

VIDEO - Ole Mertz

VIDEO - General Discussion

Aula 
8:30am - 9:45amTK-2: Thematic Keynote Theme 2: “What do people want from land? Navigating the trade-offs and fostering synergies in land systems”

VIDEO - Kendra McSweeney

VIDEOSharad Lele

VIDEO - General Discussion

AudiMax 
8:30am - 9:45amTK-3: Thematic KeynoteTheme 3: “How do we support transformation? New frontiers in studying and governing land systems”

VIDEO - Lian Pin Koh

VIDEO - Toby Gardner

VIDEO - General Discussion

UniS-A 003 
9:45am - 10:30amBreak
 
10:30am - 12:00pm104RA: Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries - Part A
Session Chair: Benjamin Stuch
Session Chair: Holger Hoff
Session Chair: Patrick Hostert
UniS-A 003 
 
Full talk
ID: 630 / 104RA: 1
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: East Africa, SDG, scenarios, biodiversity, trade-offs

Balancing trade-offs among SDGs under future uncertainty: scenarios for East Africa

Arnout van Soesbergen1,2, Marieke Sassen1

1UNEP-WCMC, United Kingdom; 2King's College London

Decision makers need to balance trade-offs and capitalise on potential synergies among different SDGs and their targets. They also need to take into account future change that may affect these trade-offs and synergies. Some drivers of change, e.g. population increases, are relatively certain whilst other future social, economic and political conditions are much harder to predict. Trade-offs and synergies among SDGs may therefore vary through time but also in space. This study uses a modelling framework that considers the implications of four plausible socio-economic scenarios for East Africa in 2030 and 2050 for national-level demand, yields and production for food and other agricultural commodities in Kenya and Tanzania (SDG 2), the ensuing potential land use changes, and the implications thereof for biodiversity and ecosystem services in a spatially explicit manner (SDG 15). Potential implications for linked goals ( SDG 6 and SDG 13) are also discussed. We found that for crops, production increases are achieved through expected yield increases and area expansion, and for meat mainly through strong expansion of pasturelands. Variations among scenarios reflect different governance, trade and agricultural policy contexts. However, population growth is the main driver of land use change in all scenarios. Increases in agricultural outputs trade-off directly with loss of biodiversity and also in space with regulating ecosystem services. The latter is strongly associated with forest loss. Analysis of the impact of different conservation policy options showed that increasing protection in one area may lead to loss of unprotected critical habitat elsewhere. The results highlight the importance of using a spatially explicit approach when considering potential trade-offs and linkages among SDG targets and goals. The inexorable global population increase requires sustainably intensifying production on existing land but also considering what types of agriculture should be done where more locally, to help achieve better outcomes globally.



Full talk
ID: 451 / 104RA: 2
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: Food system, Land-based mitigation strategies, dietary change, the 1.5-degree target, Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP)

Implementing the Paris agreement in Europe requires transformation of the land and food systems

Heera Lee1, Calum Brown1, Bumsuk Seo1, Ian Holman2, Mark Rounsevell1,3

1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research(IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr.19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; 2School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK; 3School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK

Limiting average global temperature increases to between 1.5 and 2 ◦C, as agreed in the ‘Paris Agreement’ of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, is a significant challenge. Achieving this aim as well as other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will likely require substantial changes in the land system. Currently, however, very little is known about the trade-offs and synergies that would occur if land-based mitigation strategies helped to meet the 1.5◦C target. This study focuses on the impacts of climate change and mitigation strategies on the European land system for the 2050s. We used a regional Integrated modelling framework, the IMPRESSIONS Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP), to identify feasible scenarios toward the 1.5◦C target that meet both food security and afforestation targets. We analysed stylised scenarios (n = 972) combining ruminant and non-ruminant meat demand, bioenergy crop demand, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. The results showed that implementing the Paris agreement requires transformations in both the supply and demand sides of the food system. Amongst 351 scenarios that met both food security and afforestation targets, only 42 scenarios (12 %) include ‘no-change’ in dietary change. However, these scenarios provide the smallest increase in forest area and require at least a 30% improvement in crop yields. When imports are maintained at today's levels to avoid the displacement of food production elsewhere, at least a 15 % yield improvement or a drastic reduction in meat demand is needed to meet multiple SDGs such as ‘No Hunger’, ‘Climate Action’, and ‘Life on Land’. As the SDGs are interdependent, land-based mitigation strategies would only be beneficial with major transformations in the supply and demand of all sectors.



Full talk
ID: 439 / 104RA: 3
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: Planetary boundaries, food system, land use change, absolute sustainability, meta-analysis

Future food scenarios in the context of planetary boundaries: a comprehensive synthesis

Michalis Hadjikakou, Nicholas Bowles, Ozge Geyik, Mohammad Abdullah Shaikh, Brett Bryan

Deakin University, Australia

The global food system is a key driver of land use change and other global environmental impacts. Food production is directly linked to the transgression of specific planetary boundaries (PBs), especially those of land system change, climate change, biosphere integrity, biochemical flows and freshwater use. A growing number of modelling studies employing diverse forecasting methods and scenario assumptions have estimated environmental implications of alternative food futures for a range of business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios and other simulated trends and interventions. These projections have not been previously synthesized and systematically compared against agriculture-specific PBs while accounting for study bias and the considerable uncertainty range in PB thresholds.

To address this gap, we carried out a comprehensive meta-analysis of the environmental impacts of published food scenarios for 2050. We compared all scenario projections against downscaled distributions of PB control variables for the food and land system, encompassing the full range of uncertainty in the definition of PBs. We also derived meta-analytic models of the effectiveness of three intervention types (higher production efficiency, diet moderation, and mixed measures) in reducing PB exceedance relative to BAU across each control variable. Finally, we fitted meta-regression models to examine the role of key storyline parameters (population, GDP, cereal yields, demand for animal calories) in determining PB exceedance across all studies and scenarios.

Our findings support recent literature by highlighting the high risk of PB exceedance under BAU scenarios and the need for mixed interventions incorporating ambitious diet and efficiency measures to ensure global food production remains within the safe operating space. We also reveal how the relative effectiveness of interventions varies considerably depending on the PB system and choice of control variable, highlighting key synergies and trade-offs. Our synthesis makes a significant and well-timed contribution to the literature on future food systems and their impacts on PBs.



Full talk
ID: 805 / 104RA: 4
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: biodiversity; land use; habitat loss; restoration; conservation; bending the curve

Reversing terrestrial biodiversity declines due to habitat loss: A multi-model assessment

David Leclère1, Michael Obersteiner1, Mike Barrett2, Stuart H M Butchart3,4, Abhishek Chaudhary5,6, Adriana De Palma7, Fabrice A J DeClerck8,9, Moreno Di Marco10, Jonathan Doelman11, Martina Durauer1, Robin Freeman12, Mike Harfoot13, Tomoko Hasegawa14,1, Stefanie Hellweg15, Jelle P Hilbers11, Samantha L L Hill7,13, Florian Humpenöder16, Nancy Jennings17, Tamas Krisztin1, Georgina M Mace18, Haruka Ohashi19, Alexander Popp16, Andy Purvis7,20, Aafke M Schipper11,21, Andrzej Tabeau22, Hugo Valin1, Hans van Meijl22, Willem-Jan van Zeist11, Piero Visconti1,12,18, Rob Alkemade11,23, Rosamunde Almond24, Gill Bunting3, Neil D Burgess13, Sarah E Cornell25, Fulvio Di Fulvio1, Simon Ferrier26, Steffen Fritz1, Shinichiro Fujimori14,27,28, Monique Grooten24, Thomas D Harwood26, Petr Havlík1, Mario Herrero29, Andrew J Hoskins26, Tom Kram11, Hermann Lotze-Campen1,30,31, Tetsuya Matsui19, Carsten Meyer32,33, Deon Nel34,35, Tim Newbold18, Guido Schmidt-Traub36, Elke Stehfest11, Bernardo Strassburg37,38, Detlef P van Vuuren11,39, Cristopher Ware26, James E M Watson40,41, Wenchao Wu14, Lucy Young3

1Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); 2WWF UK; 3BirdLife International; 4Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge; 5Institute of Food, Nutrition and Health, ETH Zurich; 6Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur; 7Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum; 8EAT; 9Bioversity International, CGIAR; 10CSIRO Land and Water; 11PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; 12Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London; 13UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC); 14Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES); 15Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich; 16Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK); 17Dotmoth; 18Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research (CEBR), Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London; 19Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization; 20Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London; 21Radboud University, Department of Environmental Science; 22Wageningen Economic Research (WECR), Wageningen University and Research; 23Wageningen University, Environmental Systems Analysis Group; 24WWF Netherlands; 25Stockholm Resilience Centre; 26CSIRO Land and Water; 27Kyoto University, Department of Environmental Engineering; 28Energy (ENE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); 29CSIRO Agriculture and Food; 30Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human-Environment Systems; 31Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics; 32German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv); 33Faculty of Biosciences, Pharmacy and Psychology, University of Leipzig; 34WWF International; 35Global Resilience Partnership, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; 36Paris Office, Sustainable Development Solutions Network; 37Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifícia Universidade Católica; 38International Institute for Sustainability; 39Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University; 40School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland; 41Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Programs

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses of terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity. While the amplitude of required efforts is uncertain, there is evidence that even just feeding the growing human population will challenge our ability to reach the targets. In this study, we integrate an ensemble of four land-use models and eight biodiversity models to understand whether and how we can reverse the terrestrial biodiversity declines due to habitat loss and degradation – major threats to biodiversity. We show that ambitious and coordinated efforts may allow the global biodiversity trends due to habitat loss to be reversed by 2050, while the growing human population is still adequately fed. Increasing the extent and management of protected areas, restoring degraded land, and increasing landscape-level conservation planning may allow avoiding >66% of future biodiversity losses due to habitat loss, and set biodiversity on a track to recovery. However, avoiding >75% of future losses and reversing the biodiversity trends before 2050 without conflicting with affordable food provision will require tackling the drivers of land-use change through sustainable intensification of agriculture, increased trade, reduced food waste, and reduced animal-derived calories in human diets, and even then will remain very challenging in some biodiversity hotspots. Our results also suggest that integrated strategies, in combination with bold targets, should be central to the development of a post-2020 biodiversity strategy.



Full talk
ID: 462 / 104RA: 5
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: Science policy, trade-offs, Sustainable Development Goals, farming systems

A tale of two perspectives: aligning land systems research and policy for the SDGs in European agriculture

Murray W. Scown1, Klara J. Winkler1,2, Kimberly A. Nicholas1

1Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; 2Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada

Agriculture is essential to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) because of the important nutritional, economic, and social benefits it provides to people. However, agriculture also has substantial negative impacts on land, biodiversity, water, and the global climate. Evaluating and balancing the trade-offs and synergies among goals in agricultural land systems requires support from research and policy, as well as empirical evidence often obtained through indicators. We analyse the current focus of agricultural land systems research (from a review of 69 research articles) and policy (the SDGs, EU’s Common Agricultural Policy [CAP], and associated Agri-Environmental Indicators) in Europe, and find the two perspectives largely diverge (only having 27% of variables in common) and currently provide limited support for holistic evaluation of trade-offs and synergies in agriculture for the SDGs. Research largely focuses on environmental and social drivers that are not considered in policies (65/104 variables), while policies are concerned with many outcomes not typically covered by land systems research (28/54 variables). We also identify four prevailing approaches to agricultural land systems research in Europe, none of which are truly holistic systems approaches, which potentially limits our understanding of trade-offs and synergies in agriculture. Indicators used to evaluate the CAP are focused on sustainable agriculture (SDG 2), work and economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15), while other important goals such as health (SDG 3), gender equality (SDG 5), and innovation (SDG 9) are overlooked from this sectoral perspective in the EU. We recommend systems approaches to research that holistically encompass environmental and social drivers, management choices, and outcomes to support agriculture’s contribution to the SDGs in Europe, and we present a classification of land system components to help design such holistic research. We also suggest land system researchers critically participate in the CAP reform process currently underway.



Flash talk
ID: 420 / 104RA: 6
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: Telecoupling, tomato, local impacts, global food trade

Hidden/long-distance effects of consumer choices for tomato.

Sanderine Nonhebel1, Antonio Castro2, Maria Jose Ibarrola-Rivas3, Thomas Kastner4, Francis Turkelboom5

1University of Groningen, The Netherlands; 2Idaho State University, USA; 3Instituto de Geografía, UNAM, Mexico; 4Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Germany; 5Research Institute of Nature and Forest (INBO), Brussels, Belgium

The global production of food requires huge amounts of resources and is a main reason for trespassing the planetary boundaries. As not eating is not an option only consuming other products or producing them in more environmentally friendly ways is a solution. In this paper we look at the impact of consumer choices. We take the (German) consumer as our starting point and we compare the impact of a choice for the Dutch of Spanish tomatoes. Germany is one of the largest tomato importers and in general they originate from The Netherlands or from Spain. The Dutch production system includes heated greenhouses using a lot of fossil energy (natural gas). In Spain climate is different and no heating is required, but extra irrigation is needed, since the area (Almeria) is short in water. In the Dutch production system tomatoes are picked by workers from rural areas Poland on temporary contracts and in Spain by people from Morocco (Rif region). Our analysis shows the hidden effects of a rather simple choice for tomatoes in a German supermarket: when they originate from The Netherlands the tomatoes affect the global climate change and generate money in rural Poland, when the tomatoes originate from Spain, they contribute to the huge water shortage issues in Almeria and generate income in the Moroccan Rif area. These long-distance impacts should be taken into consideration when searching for more sustainable food production systems.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm110R: Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Session Chair: Jonas Schwaab
Session Chair: Sven Lautenbach
MB-205 
 
Full talk
ID: 574 / 110R: 1
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: landscape, land system, optimization, allocation, policy

Pareto frontiers for exploring land use policies

Elizabeth Law1,2, Leandro Macchi1,3, Tobias Kuemmerle1,4

1Conservation Biogeography Lab, Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany; 2Norwegian Institute for Natural Sciences (NINA), Høgskoleringen 9, 7034 Trondheim, Norway; 3Instituto de Ecología Regional, CONICET Tucumán, Argentina; 4Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human Environment Systems (IRI THESYs), Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany

Understanding how different land uses impact trade-offs between production and the environment, and how these trade-offs play out in space, are critical to transitioning to sustainable land systems. Pareto frontiers offer a powerful policy analysis tool to describe fundamental trade-offs among landscape objectives, as well as determining the efficiency of past, current, and proposed land use allocations, and the impacts of different policy and condition scenarios. Here we discuss the development of landscape-scale Pareto Frontiers describing the major trade-off dimensions between agricultural production, carbon, and biodiversity. We do so for the example of a globally relevant deforestation hotspot, the Dry Chaco in Argentina. We outline the data challenges, simplifications, and assumptions made during the development of the landscape model, and the implementation of the optimization using the R package Prioritizr, solved with Gurobi. Finally, we discuss output options and reflect on the lessons learned during the presentation of the initial results to stakeholders.



Full talk
ID: 376 / 110R: 2
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: Agricultural landscapes, biodiversity, ecosystem services, trade-offs, stakeholder involvement

Using optimization to minimize trade-offs between ecosystem services and biodiversity in agricultural landscapes

Martin Volk, Andrea Kaim, Anna Cord, Michael Strauch

UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Germany

Different examples will be presented that use multi-criteria optimization to minimize trade-offs between ecosystem services and biodiversity in various agricultural landscapes across Europe. In a case study in Central Germany, biophysical models were used to simulate agricultural yield, stream flow and water quality, whereas biodiversity, represented by the size of breeding bird habitat, was predicted using statistical (Random Forest) models. These models were applied to stakeholder-defined land use scenarios referring to either land sparing, land sharing or business-as-usual for the year 2030. The scenarios differed in terms of land use and agricultural management as well as in the amount of linear elements in the landscape. Among the scenarios, land sharing was evaluated best for providing bird habitats and water in good quality. However, this came at the cost of a significant decrease in agricultural gross margin. As a next step, the models were coupled with the NSGA-2 optimization algorithm. The algorithm identified a set of Pareto-optimal land use strategies consisting of spatial combinations of the three scenarios. The results show possible improvements in the provisioning of ecosystem services (agricultural yield, water purification) and biodiversity (bird habitat) and can help deriving policy recommendations for future land use allocation. Additionally, challenges for the use of mathematical optimization as a decision support tool will be discussed. This includes, for example, algorithm selection, clustering of objectives, visualization of results and dynamic (i.e. intertemporal) optimization.



Full talk
ID: 572 / 110R: 3
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: Multi-Objective Game Theoretic Models, environmental-economic conflict resolution

The decision-maker matters: An operational Multi-Objective Game Theoretic Model for environmental-economic conflict resolution

Dani Broitman1, Mashor Housh2, Shapira Naama2

1Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Israel; 2University of Haifa, Israel

Multi-Objective Game Theoretic Models (MOGTM) were developed in order to analyze scenarios of multiple conflicting objectives using the rich toolbox developed in the framework of Game Theory. Typical applications of MOGTM to environmental-economic conflicts, include two players, one advocating the environment preservation, and the other pursuing economic development. Since these models include several objective functions that should be optimized simultaneously, they usually result in a set of optimal responses (called Pareto optimal responses) instead on a single one. MOGTM were used in the last years for the analysis of a plethora of environmental-economic conflicts and have demonstrate their applicability and usefulness. Despite these advantages, there are three issues with MOGTM which prevent their use as a clear-cut tool for decision-making in environmental-economic conflict resolution. The first is their inability to recommend, within a given set of Pareto optimal responses, a single solution which should be implemented. This inability stems from the very definition of multi-objective models, which limits themselves to find the optimal frontier, or at most, restricted subsets within the set of optimal Pareto responses. The second issue is the use of game theoretical abstractions as if these were accurate reflections of the institutional arrangements and relations of power in the real world. In reality, environmental and economic players face much more constraints than possible to introduce in formal models and, above all, they are generally subject to the final decision of an upper instance, not included in the model, which ultimately takes the decision (government, administrative agencies, etc.). The third issue is a direct consequence of the decision-maker’s absence from these models: Its own beliefs, viewpoints and management style cannot be modeled, despite their importance for the conflict outcome. In this paper, we suggest an operationalization of MOGTM which addresses all these concerns. We start from a conceptual inversion of the MOGTM paradigm, focusing first on the decision-maker characteristics and her knowledge of the system she is responsible for. For example, whether she advocates command-and-control or participative policies, what is her room for maneuver to implement these policies, what are the relations of power among the environmental and the economic coalitions in dispute, how the institutional channels available for conflict resolution works, etc. Only after this stage, and based on this background, the decision-maker can choose the appropriate game theoretic tool (which can be a competitive or collaborative game) and its parameters. The solution of the game, likewise in traditional MOGTM, is the last step. The result of this tailor-made game is a single Pareto optimal response which reflects both the decision-maker characteristics, the real-word relations of power between her and the players and among the players themselves. Any change in the perceived or real relations among the players will lead to different game parameters and, hence, a different result. But a modification in the decision-maker characteristics may lead to the implementation of a totally different game, even if the players remain similar. The suggested operationalization of MOGTM results in a single Pareto optimal response, transforming this type of models from a general consultancy tool to a clear-cut tool for decision-making in environmental-economic conflict resolution. Moreover, introducing explicitly the decision-maker preferences in the model, results in more efficient solutions, and allows for a clear explanation about why the chosen solution is better than any other one, subject to the initially defined settings.



Full talk
ID: 853 / 110R: 4
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: Multi-objective optimisation, Settlement network, Socio-economic indicators, Biodiversity

Optimising settlement network topology to maximise socio-economic and biodiversity indicators

Amin Khiali-Miab1, Maarten J. van Strien1, Kay W. Axhausen2, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey1

1Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; 2Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

The continuous expansion of settlement areas and the growth of per capita utilization of environmental resources not only increases the pressure on natural habitats and their connectivity, but also affects the human-well-being. Analogous to habitat networks, settlements connected by roads and traffic form complex spatial networks. Polycentricity, which refers to the existence of multiple centres in the structure of a settlement network, is a normative planning goal suggested by many organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and the European Spatial Planning Observation Network (ESPON) and is believed to improve the socio-economic status of a region. In a previous study, we propose that a polycentric settlement networks have a relatively low hierarchy and found that hierarchy indeed was negatively correlated to median personal incomes. Yet it is unclear whether polycentricity also benefits the survival of animal species in habitat networks. The purpose of this study is to use a multi-objective metaheuristic algorithm to find optimal settlement network topologies in which both the survival and mobility of animal species as well as socio-economic indicators are maximised. Our case study area is the densely populated Swiss Plateau. A dynamic model of the settlement network was coupled to a dynamic ecological habitat network model, from which the occurrences of animal species could be predicted. We study the commonalities between the settlement network patterns on the Pareto front and determine whether such optimal settlement network structures can be reached within the framework of polycentric development. We conclude our research with some policy-related suggestions for steering the settlement development process in a direction that satisfies both socio-economic and ecological goals.



Flash talk
ID: 428 / 110R: 5
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: urban renewal, land use trade-off, grey target decision, Xuzhou

Trade-off of land uses in the process of urban renewal: taking xuzhou city as a case study

SHI AN, Shaoliang Zhang, Yunlong Gong, Huping Hou

china university of mining and technology, China, People's Republic of

The urban renewal process is a decision-making process of land redevelopment, and it is also a trade-offs process among land users and stakeholders. Due to the complicated interweaving of renewal costs, social equity, environmentalism, political struggle and other factors, land reuse decision-making in urban renewal is a hot topic for scholars. China's urban renewal is accompanied by rapid economic development and the improvement of urban residents' ecological environment awareness, along with social equity and stability. Therefore, land use trade-offs in China's urban renewal is not only a trade-off between land uses, but also a trade-off between economic, ecological and social benefits. Based on this fact, this paper proposes a trade-off model of urban land uses based on the grey target decision principle, and presents the basic process of trade-off decision-making in the process of urban renewal. Finally, an empirical analysis is carried out on two case studies about demolition and transformation in Xuzhou City, China. The results show that land use decision-making in urban renewal does not have the maximum benefit and optimal utilization structure, but the result of repeated trade-offs between multiple interests.



Flash talk
ID: 898 / 110R: 6
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: biodiversity, human, linear programming, agricultural rents, global

Human-centered systematic global conservation planning

Yuchen Zhang, L. Roman Carrasco

National University of Singapore, Singapore

Systematic conservation planning has helped conservation to be more transparent, repeatable, efficient, and cost-effective. However, they mainly focus on biodiversity and neglect needs of humans. My study aim to advance this field by approximating the problem of decision makers that need to consider biodiversity conservation together with growing human needs. Specifically, there are three objectives: 1) to devise a human-centered systematic conservation-planning model; 2) to apply the model to identify cropland expansion areas that reconcile biodiversity conservation and agricultural production; and 3) to compare the solutions based on five different conservation strategies. I created a human-centred systematic conservation-planning model to plan for the distribution of new cropland by integer linear programming. This model maximized the amount of agricultural rents received by farmers, within constraints of both human crop demand satisfaction and conservation targets achievement. I found suitable locations for cropland allocation were mainly along the tropical belt including the Guiana Shield, the Brazilian Shield, the Western African coast, Eastern African plateaus and valleys, and South East Asia. There were also large areas of new cropland allocated to China, especially in the eastern region. Cotton, maize, oil palm, rice, sugarcane, soybean, and wheat were the most frequently allocated crops. Different conservation strategies presented distinctive economic and environmental outcomes. Strategies that required no allocation into protected areas or key biodiversity areas gave less total rent. National conservation constraint on forest loss could save 12.1 million ha forests, but further decreased rent by $0.52 trillion compared to a global conservation constraint. Although the study is only a small step forward in terms of data resolution and amount of variables considered, the presented framework allows addressing human needs in the conservation planning processes. This could serve as a basis for future conservation planning work in more complex contexts.



Full talk
ID: 323 / 110R: 7
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: carbon sequestration, land use, scenario analysis, trade-off analysis, optimization

Trade-offs between carbon storage, crop yield production and water supply at the global scale – where to put which land use?

Anita Bayer1, Sven Lautenbach2, Almut Arneth1

1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany; 2University of Heidelberg, Germany

The way we use our land affects natural ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services (ES). The present pattern of land-use types developed over the last millennia in response to a complex interplay of natural-system constraints and socio-economic pressures, however, the current land use configuration might not provide the optimal in terms of a variety of ES. We evaluate the global configuration of different land uses under the sole premise of optimizing for carbon storage, crop yield production and water supply, three services that are key in the land-use nexus and context of the SDGs. The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model is ran at 1°x1° grid cell resolution to simulate the ES provision of global land under different allocation of land use (potential natural vegetation and 4 major crop types, each rainfed or irrigated) considering historical and future climate, atmospheric CO2 levels and the distribution of protected areas. A multi-objective genetic algorithm is used to identify Pareto-optimal solutions with respect to the three objectives and constraints in form of protected areas and biophysical growing limits of the different crop types. Our analysis concentrates on the identified optimal land-use allocations providing higher global ES totals than would be achieved under current land use and future climate conditions. Two time horizons are compared, a short-term (20 years into the future) and a long-term planning horizon (end of century). Results indicate a potential for a simultaneous increase of all three services. We highlight opportunities in land management and possible pathways to adapt current land use to increase ES provision towards higher performing allocations and evaluate the effort for transformation. We identify global regions that are crucial for the provision of the three ES and are stable across different optimal solutions and compare them to regions with variant land-use allocation across solutions.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm114R: The deep history of global land use change - needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding socio-ecological systems
Session Chair: Marie-Jose Gaillard
Session Chair: Erle Ellis
MB-101 
 
Full talk
ID: 678 / 114R: 1
114R The deep history of global land use change – needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding of socio-ecological systems
Keywords: Holocene, land-use, land-cover, climate forcing, REVEALS

PAGES LandCover6k: Holocene land-use and land-cover reconstructions for climate modelling

Marie-Jose Gaillard1, Sandy Harrison2, Marco Madella3, Kathleen D. Morrison4, Nicola Whitehouse5, Oliver Boles4, Andria Dawson6, Esther Githumbi1, Emily Hammer4, Furong Li1, Eduardo Kasuo Tamanaha7

1Linnaeus University, Sweden; 2University of Reading; 3University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain; 4University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; 5University of Plymouth; 6Mount Royal University, Calgary, Canada; 7Mamirauá Institute for Sustainable Development, Tefé, Brazil

The PAGES LandCover6k working group (Gaillard et al. 2018) has the goal to achieve reconstructions of Holocene global land-use and land-cover (LULC) change over the Holocene for climate modelling. Biogeo-chemical and –physical feedbacks of vegetation change on climate in the past are studied using dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) coupled to climate models. Land-use is one of many climate forcings and includes biogeo-chemical and –physical effects from human-induced vegetation change. Because DVMs do not simulate land use, anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) scenarios are used in climate and carbon-cycle modelling. However, these scenarios are not consistent (Gaillard et al. 2010) and the impact of past LULC changes is still under debate. The LandCover6k LULC reconstructions are used to improve ALCCs and as benchmarking of model outputs. LandCover6k uses (i) the REVEALS model (Sugita et al. 2007) and the Modern Analogue Technique (Zanon et al. 2018) as two alternative methods to infer past plant cover from pollen records, and (ii) archaeological and historical records to map land-use types and associated quantitative attributes such as crop cultivation, grazing, irrigation, etc. in m2/m2 (Morrison et al. 2018). REVEALS land-cover reconstructions are available for the northern hemisphere (North of 40˚) and temperate China, and in progress for the southern hemisphere. Archaeologists established a LandCover6k global land-use categorization and designed a database to produce maps of past land-use categories and associated quantitative attributes. LandCover6k products are co-designed with climate and carbon-cycle modellers within the PMIP community in order to maximise their use in modelling experiments (Harrison et al., 2018).

Gaillard M.-J. et al. 2018, PAGES Magazine 26 (1); Gaillard M.-J. et al. 2010, Clim Past; Sugita 2007, The Holocene; Zanon M. et al. 2018, Frontiers in Plant Science; Morrison K. D. et al. 2018, PAGES Magazine 26 (1); Harrison et al. 2018, PAGES Magazine 26 (2).



Full talk
ID: 371 / 114R: 2
114R The deep history of global land use change – needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding of socio-ecological systems
Keywords: agriculture, history, global environmental change, Anthropocene

The deeper roots of global change: land use changes from 10,000 BP to 1850 CE

Erle Ellis

University of Maryland, Baltimore County, United States of America

Archaeological evidence confirms that environmentally-transformative uses of land began with Late Pleistocene hunter-gatherers and accelerated with the domestication of plants and animals and the emergence of agricultural societies beginning more than 14,000 years ago. Yet global models and assessments generally represent the view that anthropogenic global environmental change is mostly recent. This presentation examines existing global reconstructions of land use history in the light of a new collaborative effort combining the contributions of 255 archaeologists in the first global assessment of archaeological knowledge on land use changes from 10,000 BP to 1850 CE at ten time points across 146 regions spanning all continents except Antarctica. While archaeological knowledge of land use was generally strongest between 4,000 BP and 1,000 BP, results indicate that hunter-gatherer societies were widespread across all continents by 10,000 BP and that intensive agriculture became common and widespread in most current agricultural regions much earlier than depicted in the most commonly used historical reconstructions of global land use history. Scientific understanding of anthropogenic global environmental changes past, present and future and their grounding in land system science will require the development of a more robust global archaeological evidence base developed both by expanding archaeological research to understudied areas and increased international collaboration in knowledge integration and open sharing of archaeological and paleoecological data in forms useful for global models and assessments.



Full talk
ID: 819 / 114R: 3
114R The deep history of global land use change – needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding of socio-ecological systems
Keywords: land use change; archaeology; radiocarbon dates; early farmers;

Mapping Land Use change during the Boreal and Atlantic phases in the NW Mediterranean region and Switzerland

Ferran Antolín, Héctor Martínez-Grau, Ana Jesus

Integrative Prehistory and Archaeological Science, Switzerland

The LandCover6K Working group for the European continent has been discussing in recent workshops how to best map land use in the past making the most of the available archaeological data. The underlying question to this work is whether prehistoric human impacts on land cover were sufficiently large to have had a major impact on regional climates. The project involves multiple challenges that are inherent to the nature of archaeological data. Unlike pollen data, which is usually extrapolated for unexplored areas following different parameters, the lack of archaeological information in one region cannot be filled based on actualistic assumptions and data available from other areas unless there are good reasons for it. This might result in an underrepresentation of human presence and anthropogenic land cover change.

Here we present a first test of the methodology proposed by the LandCover6k group for a specific region that is of interest for the AgriChange Project (funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation), dealing with agricultural and land-use change in the NW Mediterranean region and Switzerland. This region is of particular archaeological interest for the understanding of the beginnings of farming because it witnessed the arrival of at least two different farming traditions: the one coming along the Mediterranean coast, and the one that went along the Danube River. Taking into account the archaeobotanical evidence of farming and wild plant gathering practices, currently being gathered by the project, together with the available radiocarbon dates for specific time frames of interest (because they are moments of socioeconomic change) we will present an attempt to map land use change in this area.



Full talk
ID: 790 / 114R: 4
114R The deep history of global land use change – needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding of socio-ecological systems
Keywords: land-cover, sediment pollen, vegetation, land-use, REVEALS

Northern Hemisphere Holocene land-cover reconstructions from fossil pollen

Andria Elizabeth Dawson1, Xianyong Cao2, Michelle Chaput3, Emma Hopla4, Jed O. Kaplan5, Furong Li6, Mary Edwards4, Ralph Fyfe7, Konrad Gajewski3, Simon J. Goring8, Ulrike Herzschuh2, Florence Mazier9, Shinya Sugita10, Jack W. Williams8, Qinghai Xu11, Marie-Jose Gaillard6

1Mount Royal University, Canada; 2Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association, Germany; 3University of Ottawa, Canada; 4University of Southampton, UK; 5University of Oxford, UK; 6Linnaeus University, Sweden; 7Plymouth University, UK; 8University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA; 9University of Toulouse II Jean Jaurès, France; 10University of Tallinn, Estonia; 11Hebei Normal University, China

Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in Earth systems processes, yet we still do not fully understand the feedbacks between these ecosystems and Earth’s climate. These ecosystem processes operate at multiple timescales; fast processes occur at sub-annual timescales, and slow processes, driven by changes in forest composition and structure, occur over decadal and longer timescales. Slow processes are rarely directly observed from instrumental data, yet are critical to understanding the stability of the terrestrial biosphere over the coming decades. Networks of paleoecological data, particularly sedimentary pollen data, offer our strongest observational constraint on long-term vegetation dynamics and underlying processes and feedbacks.

We reconstruct maps of land-cover for the Holocene for the Northern Hemisphere. To do this, we use: (i) networks of fossil pollen records - the most reliable paleoecological proxy for land-cover; (ii) estimates of pollen productivity and fall speed, and (iii) a model of pollen-vegetation relationships, REVEALS (Sugita, 2007). For the Northern Hemisphere, we estimate the fraction of summergreen trees, evergreen trees, and open land.

To determine the differences between these pollen-based reconstructions and more commonly used land-use models, we compare the fraction of open land with estimates of open land from the anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) model KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009). Identifying cause to these differences provides an opportunity for improvement in ALCCs used to inform both global earth system and dynamic vegetation models.

This work results in improved understanding of the history of Holocene land-use change over a large spatial extent and slow ecosystem processes, the biogeochemical and physical forcings from past anthropogenic land-cover change on climate, and the long-term carbon dioxide budget. It is a contribution to PAGES LandCover6k.



Full talk
ID: 286 / 114R: 5
114R The deep history of global land use change – needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding of socio-ecological systems
Keywords: land use, history, paleo-ecology, archaeology, modelling

A global historical land use reconstruction database for earth system modelling; state-of-art and remaining challenges

Kees Klein Goldewijk

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands, The

Earth System Models (ESMs) are used to investigate the coupled behavior of the land-atmosphere system, and the transient response of the climate system to different forcings, both in the past and in the future. The treatment of ALCC in ESMs currently is not satisfactory and this hampers our ability to understand past trajectories and the reliability of future projections (Gaillard et al., 2010). The two major scenarios of past ALCC, the HYDE database (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2017; Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011) and the KK10 database (Kaplan et al., 2011) differ substantially from one another and it is therefore imperative to produce more robust and reliable descriptions of past ALCC at the global spatial scale (Gaillard et al., 2017).

The current HYDE 3.2 database (Klein Goldewijk et al. 2017) is an internally consistent combination of historical population and land use estimates for 10,000 BC – 2015 CE. The various incarnations of HYDE are widely used by the climate-modelling community, and HYDE forms the basis for prescribed land-use for last millennium, historic and future simulations currently being carried out within the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al. (2016)) as a basis for the next assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. HYDE inputs are particularly important for the last millennium and historic simulations, which are used for detection/attribution of climate change (Bindoff et al., 2013).

However, recent contributions from the paleo-ecology and archaeology communities reveal that HYDE does not agree well in variious areas, regions or time slices, so the major challenge ahead is how to incorporate knowledge from those diffrent disciplines.



Flash talk
ID: 691 / 114R: 6
114R The deep history of global land use change – needs and potentials for earth system modelling and understanding of socio-ecological systems
Keywords: relative pollen productivity, ERV model, REVEALS model, land-use, LandCover6k

Quantitative pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene plant-cover in temperate China: insights on climate- and human-induced land-cover change

Furong Li1, Marie-José Gaillard1, Shinya Sugita2

1Linnaeus University, Sweden; 2University of Tallinn, Estonia,

Quantification of the effects of human-induced vegetation-cover change on past (present and future) climate is still a subject of debate. Our understanding of these effects greatly depends on the availability of empirical reconstructions of past anthropogenic vegetation cover. Until recently quantitative reconstructions of plant cover based on pollen data was a challenge due to the non-linear relationship between pollen percentages and vegetation abundances. The REVEALS model (Sugita, 2007) corrects biases due to intertaxonomic differences in pollen productivity, dispersal and deposition, and between-site differences in size and type of accumulation basin (lake or bog). The model estimates regional vegetation cover using pollen records from one large lakes or multiple small sites (lakes and bogs). The spatial scale of REVEALS reconstructions is ca. 104 km2,which is a relevant spatial scale for climate modelling. Relative pollen productivity (RPP) of plant taxa is a key parameter required for the application of the REVEALS model. RPP estimates are available from earlier studies for plant taxa characteristic of steppes and meadows of northern China, and forests of temperate NW China. We estimated RPPs for plant taxa of traditional agricultural landscapes in the Shandong province, central-eastern China (Li et al., 2017). We then assessed all available RPPs and combined them into a synthesized data set (Li et al., 2018). We used this RPP dataset with pollen records from lakes and bogs to produce REVEALS-based reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation-cover change in temperate China. Finally, we compared land-cover change to existing data on past climate and human history to identify major periods of human-induced land-cover change and their spatial extent over time. This study is a contribution to PAGES LandCover6k.

References: Sugita S., 2007. The Holocene; Li F. et al., 2017. Veg. Hist. Archaeobot; Li F. et al., 2018. Front. Plant Sci.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm115R: Water on land: The role of green water for social-ecological and Earth system resilience
Session Chair: Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Session Chair: Patrick William Keys
UniS-A -126 
 
Full talk
ID: 505 / 115R: 1
115R Water on land: The role of green water for social-ecological and Earth system resilience
Keywords: deforestation, climate risk, agriculture, Brazil, ecosystem services

Agricultural losses from biogeophysical climate change in Brazil: A business case for ecosystem protection?

Avery Cohn, Sally Thompson

Tufts University, United States of America

In the Amazon and Cerrado biomes of Brazil, slowing ecosystem conversion could help to protect valuable ecosystem services, but comes at the cost of foregone revenue from the expansion of agricultural activities. As part of a wider effort to estimate the likelihood that reducing ecosystem conversion will be net beneficial to key agricultural and government actors, we produced spatially explicit, near-term, probabilistic estimates of economic damage to the agricultural economy stemming from ecosystem services lost under ecosystem conversion. Underlying these estimates was an ecological forecasting framework. We assembled the framework using two sets of statistical models, selected for their predictive skill and drawing on remotely sensed and in situ evidence. The first model set predicted the response of agriculturally relevant rainfall and temperature parameters to regional land use and land cover change. The second set predicted the response of agricultural productivity to changes in the regional climate. Together with idealized land use and land cover scenarios, we linked these models and used them to forecast economic damage to the agricultural sector stemming from ecosystem conversion. The results of the forecast exhibited a high degree of uncertainty, but nevertheless revealed the costs of damage from a considerable area of ecosystem conversion to robustly exceed the opportunity cost of conservation. Partitioning the uncertainty demonstrated several priority areas for improved modeling and data in the agricultural, ecological, and climatological domains.



Full talk
ID: 338 / 115R: 2
115R Water on land: The role of green water for social-ecological and Earth system resilience
Keywords: Climate feedbacks, Soil Moisture Temperature Coupling (SMTC), Soil Moisture, Ethiopia, Tigray Region.

Mesoclimate regulation induced by landscape restoration and water harvesting in agroecosystems of the horn of Africa

Giulio Castelli1, Fabio Castelli2, Elena Bresci1

1Department of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Systems (GESAAF), Università degli Studi di Firenze, Italy; 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (DICEA), Università degli Studi di Firenze, Italy

When changes are made in a landscape, these changes may impact on the local climate. In arid and semi-arid agroecosystems of the world, measures such as Landscape Restoration and Water Harvesting (LRWH) are implemented to revert land degradation and increase soil moisture, reducing runoff losses and increasing agricultural yields. The present work aims to analyse to what extent storing soil moisture, with adequate land and water management practices, can reduce temperatures in the hot months after the rainy season, because of Soil Moisture-Temperature Coupling (SMTC), in a semi-arid climate such as the one of northern Ethiopian highlands. Since it is reported that soil moisture deficit can enhance heatwaves in diverse regions of the world, it is hypothesized that increasing soil water availability, during the dry and hot periods, can mitigate hot temperatures. The analysis has been carried for Enabered catchment, in Tigray Region, Ethiopia, where the rainy season runs from June to September. Here, large scale LRWH implementation ended in 2008. An analysis based on remote sensing data has been carried out to evaluate (1) to what extent LRWH implementation can enhance soil moisture conservation at agroecosystem scale; (2) to what extent LRWH implementation can mitigate temperatures in the dry season at agroecosystem scale; and (3) if SMTC effect was evident. Results showed an increased capacity of the catchment to maintain soil moisture accumulated in the rainy season, and reduce temperatures. Increase of soil moisture was especially significant for September (P < 0.01), while temperature decrease was evident in October (P < 0.01) and November (P < 0.05), with decreases of Land Surface Temperatures up to 1.74 °C. A simple, parsimonious linear regression model demonstrated that SMTC is evident at catchment scale and that the implementation of LRWH measures provided a climate regulation effect in the watershed. The present work can reinforce the call for an increased adoption of water harvesting, land restoration and green water management, to increase the resilience of agricultural ecosystem located in arid and semi-arid areas, that represent a key element to achieve global food security.



Full talk
ID: 775 / 115R: 3
115R Water on land: The role of green water for social-ecological and Earth system resilience
Keywords: moisture recycling, tropical rainforest, resilience, drought

Dry periods amplify rainfall dependence on moisture recycling in the Amazon and Congo forests

Lan Wang-Erlandsson1,2, Ruud van der Ent3,4, Patrick Keys5, Ingo Fetzer1, Makoto Taniguchi2, Line Gordon1

1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; 2Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan; 3Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands; 4Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, the Netherlands; 5Colorado State University, USA

Forests in the Amazon and Congo are vulnerable to rainfall decrease, and particularly during dry seasons and dry years. We use 34 years of reanalysis, synthesis precipitation data, and the moisture tracking model WAM-2layers to analyze anomalies in Amazon and Congo moisture recycling during the dry seasons and dry years (i.e., years with high water deficit or low rainfall). We find that the relative importance of forests as moisture suppliers for rainfall increase considerably during dry seasons. Dry years further amplify the dry season forest moisture recycling by 10-15 % in parts of both the Amazon and Congo. If mean dry season precipitation would fall to dry year levels, the risk for a forest-savanna transition would be substantially elevated in both Amazon and Congo. Further, we find that evaporation anomaly is able to explain up to half of the seasonal precipitationshed anomalies, and at least a third of the dry year dry season anomalies. The dry period intensification of moisture recycling implies an increased dependence on the forest for its own moisture, which may amplify interactions between deforestation and droughts. Thus, we conclude that it will be important to understand how moisture recycling amplification will develop in the future, specifically in terms of its role in mediating deforestation, climate change, and forest resilience.



Full talk
ID: 780 / 115R: 4
115R Water on land: The role of green water for social-ecological and Earth system resilience
Keywords: climate, soil moisture, green water, cropland, yield

The importance of green water for understanding climate change impacts on crops

Nathan Mueller1, Angela Rigden2, Paul Levine1, Ethan Butler3, Peter Huybers2, James Randerson1

1University of California, Irvine, United States of America; 2Harvard University, United States of America; 3University of Minnesota, United States of America

Agricultural climate impact projections routinely rely upon temperature-based statistical models to characterize historical variability and project future crop yields, and exposure to extremely hot temperatures is associated with severe crop losses. However, high temperatures over land are often associated with soil moisture deficits, meaning reductions in yield due to reduced green water flows may be conflated with crop stress from high temperatures. Relying on temperature as an explanatory variable in yield projections therefore makes the implicit assumption that the historical association between soil moisture deficits and high temperatures will stay constant in a changing climate. Here we examine the historical association between soil moisture and summer temperatures, focusing on the US Great Plains. We then utilize climate model output to assess possible future trajectories of this association, finding that the historical pattern shifts substantially in a changing climate. Although there are interesting wetting and drying patterns, most warming occurs without the corresponding change in soil moisture that would have been inferred from the historical pattern. Therefore, temperature-based statistical crop yield models may be biased towards implicitly overestimating future reductions in green water flows and yields. The magnitude of this bias is assessed using a series of statistical models for rainfed and irrigated maize and soybean.



Full talk
ID: 751 / 115R: 5
115R Water on land: The role of green water for social-ecological and Earth system resilience
Keywords: Green water, agricultural intensification, land use change, sustainable development

The interaction between the expansion and intensification of brazilian soybean production systems, and their effects on green water flows

Rafaela Flach

Hamburg University, Germany

Over the last couple of decades, cropland expansion has significantly re-allocated green water from terrestrial ecosystems towards agriculture. This type of land use change results in additional availability of land and water resources, but also connected to impacts to biodiversity and changes in the water cycle. Alongside this expansion, agricultural intensification practices such as double cropping result in greater output per unit of land and water, as well as more productive use of the available water throughout the annual cycle. Double-cropping systems have been shown to have much higher water-recycling potential than single cropping systems, being more similar to the natural vegetation in certain areas. We investigate the influence of these two processes – horizontal cropland expansion and agricultural intensification – in agricultural water use and green water flows in Brazil, with the objective to understand the trade-offs and synergies for land and water productivity. We applied the biophysical model EPIC to estimate yields and consumptive water use for single and double cropping of soybeans, maize and cotton in Brazil for 1990-2015. The results show a prevalence of cropland expansion, mostly in the Amazon and Cerrado regions, as the main cause of changes in total green water use. The yield increase in this period, related to technological improvements and management options, contributed to a more productive use of land and water resources throughout the country. However, when comparing single and double cropping systems, an even higher improvement of resource use per hectare is observed. Exploiting the potential for double cropping could be a sustainable option to increase agricultural production without further land conversion, while taking better advantage of the available water throughout the year. Finally, although our model results support the evidence for increase in the water-recycling potential that double-cropping, there are limitations to its similarity to natural vegetation levels.



Full talk
ID: 747 / 115R: 6
115R Water on land: The role of green water for social-ecological and Earth system resilience
Keywords: Green water, Migration, Resilience, Karamoja, Remote sensing, Soil moisture

Green water and livestock mobility in karamoja understanding the karimojong phrase “we follow our water”

Shuaib Lwasa, Benon Nabaasa

Makerere University, Uganda

The Karimojong of North Eastern Uganda are a nomadic pastoralist group largely dependent on livestock for a livelihood and have over time evolved a robust livestock system. Though pastoralism has proven to be a resilient system, the past few decades in the history of the planet have witnessed alterations in the earth’s systems. These shifts have in turn triggered responsive adaptation interventions among the pastoralists chief of which is frequent and longer livestock migrations in search of water and pasture. Pastoralism in Karamoja is heavily weather dependent and the dynamics of water and pasture are not only significant influences on the Karimojong socio-economic sphere but such dynamics also are key shapers of the Karimojong landscape. Although blue water is crucial for pastoralists and their livestock, Karimojong seasonal migrations and way of life are more often determined by green water in form of forage biomass spatial and temporal fluctuations which in turn depend on soil moisture. The Karimojong graze in a pattern that trails the receding soil moisture hence the local adage “We follow our water”. By tracking both herder movements and the spatial and temporal variation of soil moisture, this study makes quantitative conclusions in line with the Karimojong phrase “we follow our water”. Preliminary results reveal that soil moisture variations are a precursor to pastoralist movements, which migrations in turn set in a cascade of slow onset landscape changes. The study underpins the significance of green water in influencing the Karimojong way of life and in shaping the landscape onto which they subsist.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm216R: Equity and justice in telecoupled land systems: evaluative and transformative perspectives
Session Chair: Sébastien Boillat
Session Chair: Jorge C. Llopis
Session Chair: Desiree Christina Daniel
UniS-A 022 
 
Full talk
ID: 804 / 216R: 2
216R Equity and justice in telecoupled land systems: evaluative and transformative perspectives
Keywords: environmental justice, telecoupling, institutional analysis, political ecology

Environmental justice in telecoupled land systems: conceptual challenges

Sébastien Boillat

Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland

In this contribution meant as an introduction to the session, I will discuss more specifically the potential of environmental justice approaches to assess equity in telecoupled systems.

Telecoupling as well as more recent framings of environmental justice share ontological common grounds such as post-nation-state (post-Westphalian), post-territorial and non-linear thinking. Nevertheless, more conceptual work is needed to understand the mechanisms that link distant social-ecological interactions with equity outcomes.

I suggest that this understanding requires three additional steps. First, one has to understand how distant social-ecological interactions are governed and how institutions that govern these interactions emerge. Second, one has to make explicit the power asymmetries that prevent or privilege some actors in shaping institutions. Third, one has to understand how the exercise of power in decision-making affects equity and justice outcomes.

In this contribution, I will assess the suitability of different approaches to make these links. I will first present the intellectual roots and the implicit assumptions of environmental justice, telecoupling, institutional analysis and political ecology, and I will then critically examine examples of practical combinations.

This contribution will be based on a research workshop on “Environmental justice in telecoupled resource systems”, held in Bern in November 2018.



Full talk
ID: 824 / 216R: 3
216R Equity and justice in telecoupled land systems: evaluative and transformative perspectives
Keywords: Governance, IBM, Justice, power relations, equity

Assessing governance outcomes in IBMs from the perspective of Environmental Justice: A comparative case study of IBMs in sugarcane production in Malawi.

Timothy Adams

University of Bern, Institute of Georgraphy, Switzerland

Inclusive businesses (IB) has been proposed as the most effective means of including smallholders for equitable outcomes in distantly tied agrarian investments, where distant actors (agribusiness) and local farmers enter into commercial partnership for production. However, empirical evidence suggest a large number of these inclusive business models (IBMs) do not often translate into the desired inclusive outcomes; majority of the IBMs often result in exclusion, inequality and low social returns to the local communities ( Chamberlain and Anseeuw 2017; Chamberlain and Anseeuw 2018). This paper therefore aim to assess why this is the case and how such unexpected consequences or outcomes, which in the first place, is the reason for the proposed IBMs, could be minimised.

Using different cases of IBMs involving sugarcane production in Malawi, we aim to show the different types of governance mechanisms in sugarcane production in Malawi and how they contribute to the specific (in)-equitable outcomes. We ask: what forms of governance mechanisms are in place for the implementation of the different IBMs for sugarcane production in Malawi? How do these governance mechanisms for managing the IBMs contribute to the unexpected outcomes of inclusion (e.g. exclusion and dispossession, unequal division of proceeds etc.)? And how could such governance mechanisms be improved upon in order to minimize (if only possible) such unexpected consequences of the IBMs in use?

In this paper we present an analytical framework for understanding how the governance mechanisms come about and how they contribute to the respective inclusive outcomes. We argue that the answers to these questions lies in the perspectives of environmental justice. By incorporating the dimensions of justice as guiding tool for designing mechanisms of governance for IBMs at the local level, where both the distant actors (agribusiness) and local actors (smallholders) interact in the sphere of resource activities, we can improve upon the governance mechanisms in place for IBMs, identify the avenues for unequal power relations and address equity beyond strictly distributive approaches through the integration of other aspects such as procedural justice, social recognition, and non-human justice subjects in the IBMs for desired outcomes.



Full talk
ID: 735 / 216R: 4
216R Equity and justice in telecoupled land systems: evaluative and transformative perspectives
Keywords: biodiversity, service-providing species, telecoupling, teleconnections, conservation burden

Distant poor and threatened regions underpin interregional flows of cultural ecosystem services

Matthias Schröter1, Roland Kraemer2, Roy P. Remme3, Alexander P.E. van Oudenhoven4

1UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Germany; 2Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Geography; 3National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM); 4Institute of Environmental Sciences CML, Leiden University

Ecosystem service assessments rarely consider flows of ecosystem services and telecoupling between distant regions and hence neglect equity implications due to potential conservation burdens in sending regions. Large knowledge gaps remain for interregional flows of cultural ecosystem services in particular, which comprise non-material contributions of ecosystems to human well-being. We spatially delineated and analysed the sending regions for interregional flows of three cultural ecosystem services to two receiving regions, Germany and the Netherlands, on a global scale. The selected ecosystem services reflect different types of physical or intellectual interactions with nature and include aesthetic appreciation of species, existence and bequest values held for species, and birdwatching. We compared the most important sending regions for both countries in terms of location, equity implications, threat and protection status.

The proportion of service-providing species with habitats distant from the receiving region was highest for birdwatching (Germany: 58.6%, Netherlands: 59.4%), followed by existence and bequest values (Germany: 49.3%, Netherlands: 57.1%), and aesthetic appreciation (Germany: 26.7%, Netherlands: 20.0%). Hotspots for existence and bequest and birdwatching for both countries were significantly poorer than the global mean. This raises questions of interregional distributive justice, as the costs of conserving service-providing species habitat would need to be covered by poor regions, while richer receiving regions benefit. Hotspots were also significantly more threatened than the global mean indicating the need for conservation efforts. Protection levels of sending region hotspots for flows to Germany were slightly higher than the global protection level (14.9%) for existence and bequest (20.0%) and birdwatching (15.5%), while for Dutch sending region hotspots protection levels (13.4%, and 12.6% respectively) were slightly lower than the global level.

Our findings could be used to clarify that external land is used to provide cultural ecosystem services, and to raise awareness of potential interregional dependencies and responsibilities.



Full talk
ID: 701 / 216R: 5
216R Equity and justice in telecoupled land systems: evaluative and transformative perspectives
Keywords: justice, sustainability, telecoupling, land conflicts

Sustainable and just development in Myanmar: land disputes between commercial interests, nature conservation and human well-being

Flurina Schneider1, Lara Maria Lundsgaard-Hansen1, Gwendolin Julie Zähringer1, Win Myint2, Nwe Nwe Tun2, Christoph Oberlack1, Melanie Feurer1, Katharina Nydegger1, Peter Messerli1

1University of Bern, Switzerland; 2ECCSi, Myanmar

In the same year 2015, when the Myanmar people elected a new civil government, Myanmar representatives also endorsed the global UN 2030 Agenda with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hence, Myanmar currently faces a double challenge: the transition from a military to a democratic government, and the evolution along a sustainable development pathway. Competition over land is at the core of many related development questions: farmers, businessmen, investors, national and international governments and NGOs compete for access to and decision-making power on the use of land. Against this background, this article unravels current land use transitions and disputes, their causes and consequences, and discusses promising transformative pathways for more sustainable and just development.

Results show that recent dynamics led to a change of subsistence and shifting cultivation based land use systems to fiercely contested land systems due to diverging interests manifested through commercial, conservation, and political activities of local, but also national and international actors. Hence, while local villagers actively engage in these activities, decisions on regional development are increasingly taken by powerful actors at places and scales beyond the local systems. However, implications for people living in the area are multifaceted. On the one hand, they stress that their wellbeing considerably improved in many aspects such as health, and food security; on the other hand, they deplore lost access to land, water and forest resources. In several cases, initial challenges could be turned into more positive outcomes through mediation and brokering activities of boundary actors. In conclusion, this analysis will reveal critical development challenges and pathways in Myanmar, as land disputes unfold between commercial interests, nature conservation and human well-being.



Flash talk
ID: 807 / 216R: 6
213R Land tenure (security) and land use (change)
Keywords: land tenure form, land tenure security, forest-cover change, agricultural expansion, multi-scale analysis

Untangling the effects of land tenure on agriculture-forest dynamics in Latin America

Andrea Pacheco, Carsten Meyer

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Germany

Land tenure form (e.g., private vs. public ownership) and land tenure security can affect commodity cropland expansion and associated changes in forest cover (hereafter “agriculture-forest dynamics”) through a complex array of causal pathways and mechanisms, with diverse socioeconomic and environmental implications. However, while theories from various disciplines and extensive case-studies can link land tenure form and/or security to agriculture-forest dynamics, the hypothesized relationships remain insufficiently tested, and their generality unclear. Moreover, interpretation of effect sizes is often challenging as land tenure form/security may simultaneously affect agriculture-forest dynamics in different directions via different causal pathways, which, however, are rarely considered jointly in analyses. A further key constraint is that data on tenure form/security to formally test the hypothesized relationships is generally scarce and oftentimes restricted to localized household data or aggregated national-level indicators, but lacking specifically at the intermediate landscape scales where agriculture-forest dynamics become most apparent. To address these challenges, this study proposes a systematic, multi-scale approach for formally testing and comparing the hypothesized effects of land tenure form/security on agriculture-forest dynamics. We will present initial evidence from Latin America, a globally important region for commodity crop production with a comparably high availability of land tenure data, to showcase the utility of our approach in elucidating these complex social-ecological relationships.



Full talk
ID: 615 / 216R: 7
217R The role of farm and field size for food security, environmental sustainability, and social justice

Mapping hotspots of land cover change, water conflict, and food insecurity in Cambodia

Emma Johansson, Stefan Olin, Jonathan Seaquist

Lund University, Sweden

About 800 000 hectares of land, equal to 4.5% of Cambodia’s total land area, and 21% of arable land have been contracted to foreign and domestic investors since year 2000. This trend has led to rapid land use and land cover changes, as small-scale farms (1 to 4 ha) and protected forests have turned into large-scale monocultures (usually 10000 ha). The monocultures are predominantly planted with water-intensive crops like rubber, sugarcane, and palm oil, which are non-edible and thus cause great societal concerns for safe access to both water and food. This research explores the effects that land acquisitions have on land use and land cover, water resources, and food security. We link distant drivers (like EU polices that facilitate trade with least developed countries) to their socio-environmental effects elsewhere (land acquisitions in Cambodia), and thereafter use network analysis to map the locations to where natural resources (e.g. land and water), embedded in crop production, are exported. Additionally, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to assess nation-wide socio-environmental effects on land, water, and food production, by comparing the past land use and land cover with the present in order to highlight hotspots of potential water conflict and food insecurity. By understanding socio-environmental drivers, effects, and trade flows, it is possible to identify the different actors in the land acquisition system, which enable new insights for crafting responses and policies that will ensure sustainable development for local populations.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm302RB: The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation - Part B: Focus on Brazil
Session Chair: Ximena Rueda
Session Chair: Kimberly Marie Carlson
Session Chair: Robert Heilmayr
Session Chair: Rachael Garrett
Session Chair: Eric F. Lambin
MB-220 
 
Full talk
ID: 239 / 302RB: 1
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: Zero-deforestation commitments, deforestation, cattle, Brazil

The impacts of zero-deforestation commitments on deforestation and slaughterhouse siting behaviours

Samuel Alexander Levy1, Rachael Garrett1, Petterson Vale2, Ricardo Vale2, Holly Gibbs2

1Boston University, United States of America; 2University of Wisconsin, United States of America

Cattle are the leading driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, as well as one of the key commodities driving tropical deforestation globally. Despite inconclusive evidence, supply chain initiatives have been heralded as a critical way to decouple economic production from environmentally destructive practices both in the Amazon and elsewhere. In the Brazilian cattle sector, this primarily has taken the form of collective zero-deforestation commitments such as the G4 Cattle Agreement. We use a novel methodological approach to determine whether these commitments have changed company location decisions or reduced deforestation in three Brazilian states, Rondônia, Mato Grosso and Pará, which collectively constituted 75% of the cattle herd of the Legal Amazon region. We quantified market exposure to zero deforestation commitments and associated reductions in deforestation by calculating the market share of committed slaughterhouses at the municipal level. This was paired with an analysis of the locations of new slaughterhouses by committed companies to identify if companies were avoiding expansion into regions with high deforestation risk. Our results show that companies who make zero-deforestation commitments are not avoiding deforestation hotspots, however a high municipal exposure to zero deforestation commitments is associated with reduced deforestation. We conclude that while commitments are not altering company decisions on where to expand, they are likely changing business practices and in turn resulting in reduced deforestation. However, for commitments to be impactful it requires a large percentage of the local market to be composed of committed companies, otherwise there continue to be ample opportunities to avoid or otherwise evade the commitments companies have made.



Full talk
ID: 373 / 302RB: 3
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: Soy Moratorium, Brazil's Cerrado, avoided deforestation, future deforestation risk

Brazil’s Cerrado soy moratorium: estimating impacts on production and native vegetation area

Aline Soterroni1,2, Fernando Ramos2, Joseph Fargione3, Leandro Baumgarten4, Pedro Andrade2, Aline Mosnier1, Johannes Pirker1, Michael Obersteiner1, Florian Kraxner1, Gilberto Câmara2, Alexandre Ywata5, Stephen Polasky6

1International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; 2National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil; 3The Nature Conservancy, Minneapolis, USA; 4The Nature Conservancy, Brasília, Brazil; 5Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brasília, Brazil; 6University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA

Brazil’s Cerrado is a unique tropical savanna and a global biodiversity hotspot under threat of extinction due to land use conversion to agriculture. Cerrado is the location of the recent Brazil’s agricultural boom, especially soybeans expansion. Based on GLOBIOM-Brazil model, we estimated the impact of extending the soy moratorium (SoyM) from the Brazilian Amazon to the Cerrado biome by projecting future soybeans expansion in Brazil under scenarios with and without the SoyM. GLOBIOM-Brazil is a regional version of GLOBIOM model, a global bottom-up recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model that simulates the competition for land among the main sectors of the land use economy (agriculture, forestry and bioenergy), subject to resources, technology and policy restrictions. Expanding the soy moratorium to the Cerrado would prevent the direct conversion of 3.6 million hectares of native vegetation to soybeans between 2021 and 2050. On the production side, the SoyM expansion would cause a reduction of 1.1 million hectares or 2% of Brazil’s soybean area by 2050. We also estimated the area of native vegetation at risk of being lost per 1000 ton of soybeans produced in the Cerrado, between 2021 and 2050, per trader, trader association or consumer market. To this end, we used the scenarios projections from GLOBIOM-Brazil and the market share of companies tracked by TRASE dataset for the year 2015. Our results indicate which traders or export markets would contribute most to future soy-related deforestation of the Cerrado’s vegetation.



Full talk
ID: 515 / 302RB: 4
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: Brazilian Amazon, Cattle agreements, Deforestation, Land intensification, Supply sheds

Estimating the influence of meatpackers with zero-deforestation commitments on cattle travel distances in the Brazilian Amazon

Amintas de O. Brandao Junior, Lisa L. Rausch, Holly K. Gibbs, Jacob Munger, Matthew Christie

University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States of America

Since 2009, supply chain agreements championed by governmental agencies and NGOs have been pushing meatpacking companies to reduce deforestation associated with cattle production in the Brazilian Amazon. One challenge is the limited reach of the cattle agreements’ current implementation, including the existence of major slaughterhouses without agreements or monitoring systems. In this study, we combined cattle movement data, properties boundaries, and roads network, to identify the cattle supply sheds of direct and indirect suppliers of meatpackers located in the states of Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia. Next, we documented the space-time patterns of deforestation and land intensification between slaughterhouses that are covered by the cattle agreements and those that are not. The study period was from 2013 to 2017 and we show that the largest slaughterhouses, including those covered by the agreements, buy more frequently from a smaller number of ranches without ongoing deforestation and located closer to the plant. However, cattle produced on farms with deforestation travel farther to reach plants that do not monitor for deforestation, which is an indication of leakage. Also, the deforestation levels were lower and the land was more intensified in the regions near to the plants that signed the agreements than around those that did not sign. Our results demonstrate the importance of sector-wide adoption and implementation of the cattle agreements by highlighting the extent to which non-compliant producers can go to avoid conforming to deforestation-free production, given the opportunity.



Full talk
ID: 579 / 302RB: 5
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: Soy Moratorium, zero deforestation, assurance system, Savanna, Amazon

Soy Moratorium in Brazil: the evolution of the governance structure, the assurance system and future challenges

Marina Piatto, Lisandro Inakake, Isabel Garcia-Drigo

Imaflora, Brazil

The Soy Moratorium is the most successful zero deforestation commitment in place in Brazil. The Moratorium was established in 2006 after the Greenpeace report Eating up the Amazon pointed out that soybeans were being increasingly grown in the Amazon biome and had become a significant driver of deforestation in the region. It is a voluntary agreement made by the soybean production chain with the aim of putting an end to deforestation to make way for soybean crops in the Amazon biome by making sure that soybean trading companies will not buy raw materials produced in areas deforested after 2008. Since the beginning, the civil society played a significant role in the building and implementation of the commitment. The Soy Working Group includes national and international NGOs, representatives of traders and the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries and, since 2008, Brazilian government representatives. This group governs the initiative defining and implementing the assurance system (monitoring, verification, and reporting). The purpose of this contribution is to analyze the structure of the governance system, how the assurance system has evolved and the challenges of expanding the initiative to the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado). The empirical analysis draws in a historical review of the rule building process and implementation, completed by interviews with key stakeholders involved in the initiative. Our results show that the governance structure has supported a more robust assurance system with an increasing number of traders hiring independent audits year by year. Nevertheless, there is still room for the improvement of the transparency of audit results. Finally, the expansion of a similar commitment to the Brazilian Savanna will be hardly achieved only with command control actions. There is a need for a combination with economic incentives.



Flash talk
ID: 493 / 302RB: 6
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: Brazilian Amazon, beef supply chain, zero deforestation, governance

Progress and limits of zero-deforestation commitments of the beef chain in the Brazilian Amazon

Isabel Garcia-Drigo1, Marie-Gabrielle Piketty2, Pablo Pacheco3, Rene Poccard-Chapuis2, Marcelo Thales4

1Imaflora, Brazil; 2Cirad; 3WWF; 4Museu Emilio Goeldi

The beef industry has been the main driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in the last 40 years. This situation has started to reverse in the last ten years, thanks to two agreements between the main meatpackers, NGOs and the government, in which the former commit to stop using any of their suppliers involved in illegal deforestation. The purpose of this contribution is to analyze the features of the main institutional arrangements that emerged aimed at guaranteeing that cattle suppliers do not cause further deforestation, their progress, and limits toward achieving those goals. Our analysis draws on a historical review of the events underpinning the process of building and adopting rules in the beef supply chain, complemented with information from semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders in the public and private sector, and civil society, in the main beef producing states in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that meatpacking companies’ effective control of cattle ranchers only got underway with the implementation of more stringent and innovative public policies. More, the existing cattle agreements have enabled more progress towards eliminating deforestation but control only occurs over direct suppliers of the slaughterhouses, minimal law compliance is required, and the accountability mechanisms of the agreements are still weak. We discuss possible pathways to improve the effectiveness of existing commitments.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm305R: Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Session Chair: Ruth Defries
Session Chair: Meha Jain
MB-120 
 
Full talk
ID: 585 / 305R: 1
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: Africa; fuelwood; health; LULCC; poverty

Population and environment dynamics of energy access in sub-Saharan Africa

Pamela Jagger

University of Michigan, United States of America

The role of land use land cover change (LULCC) in determining household energy access and energy poverty is poorly understood. Most household energy studies emphasis demand side factors including economic status and demographic characteristics of households, ignoring the role that supply-side factors play in household decision making about fuel and technology choice and their consequences for well-being. We present results from studies in Malawi and Uganda where we consider the role of LULCC in household decisions about the type of fuel used, cooking technology choice, time allocated to collecting fuels, and expenditures on fuels. We use panel data from targeted household socioeconomic surveys, multiple waves of population representative sociodemographic datasets, and Modis data on land use land cover change to explore the relationship between LULCC, fuel choice, and livelihood outcomes including the health status of women. We find that land use land cover change transitions dramatically reduce the availability of high-quality fuelwood in the landscape. We observe that under conditions of declining forest cover and forest degradation, lower income households previously reliant on collection of high-quality fuelwood switch to lower quality fuels including crop residues and wet fuelwood, whereas better-off households transition to charcoal or purchased fuelwood. Data from both Uganda and Malawi confirm that use of low-quality fuels in household cooking is correlated with higher prevalence of symptoms of respiratory, cardiopulmonary and neurologic disease. Our work identifies a poorly understood pathway through which deforestation and forest degradation act as a poverty trap through increased use of higher polluting fuels in household cooking. Our findings suggest that areas where LULCC is associated with increased use of low-quality biomass fuels are appropriate targets for policy interventions designed to reduce fuel consumption or transition households to use of modern fuels.



Full talk
ID: 716 / 305R: 2
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: millets, dietary diversity, food subsidy

Impact of food and agriculture policies on dietary patterns and malnutrition in India

Patrese Anderson2, Nirali Bakhla1, Kathy Baylis2, Ashwini Chhatre1, Kyle Davis3, Ruth DeFries3, Piyush Mehta1, Narasimha Rao4

1Indian School of Business; 2University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; 3Columbia University; 4International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Green revolution and food subsidy programs in India contributed to large increases in the production of rice and wheat over the last five decades, with concomitant reduction in the proportion of coarse cereals in the food supply. At the same time, as total calorie production increased several folds, India has among the highest incidence of malnutrition. To overcome these nutrient deficiencies, households need to diversify their diets away from calorie-dense foods such as polished rice, towards coarse cereals, pulses, and fresh vegetables. Building on prior scholarship, we argue that current agricultural and food policies discourage these dietary shifts in India, particularly among the poor. We investigate the relationship between consumption patterns among Indian households, disaggregating it between home-production, market-bought, wild collected, and accessed as subsidized food. We combine data on socio-economic factors and 89 food items from large-scale national surveys between 2004 and 2012 covering more than 160,000 households, with district-level data on crop production, infrastructure investments, indicators of social and economic development, and climate variables. We examine spatial and temporal patterns in land use and land cover in terms of its relationship to changes in dietary intake of several nutrients (calories, protein, fat, iron, zinc, calcium, and Vitamin A). Our research attempts to inform recent policy debates about introduction of coarse cereals in the current public food distribution system to affordably address malnutrition by improving dietary patterns and a move towards nutrition-sensitive agriculture.



Full talk
ID: 466 / 305R: 3
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: malaria, land use, Southeast Asia, vector-borne disease

Malaria landscape: examining the role of land cover / land use nexus in malaria transmission in Myanmar

Tatiana V Loboda1, Mark Carroll2, Amanda Hoffman-Hall1, Myaing Myaing Nyunt3, Christopher Plowe3

1University of Maryland, United States of America; 2Science Systems and Applications Inc./ NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, United State of America; 3Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, United States of America

Myanmar is an emerging democracy that bears the heaviest malaria burden in Southeast Asia, the region that has been the historical gateway for the global dissemination of drug-resistant malaria. Malaria spread is a highly complex process driven by a host of ecological, meteorological, biological, and epidemiological drivers which are in turn influenced by socio-economic conditions, population flow, military conflicts, and the healthcare system. The disease burden within Myanmar is distributed highly unevenly even at the local (village-to-village) scale and the drivers of the observed spatial patterns are not immediately apparent. Yet, to support the Myanmar Government’s and World Health Organization’s malaria elimination agenda it is critical that space-time predictive capabilities are available to drive targeted intervention campaigns. Historically satellite-data-driven malaria models primarily focused on vector habitat suitability assessments which, even when successful, were proven to be insufficient predictors of malaria prevalence. In the context of the closed-loop human-mosquito-human parasite transfer, knowledge of dynamics of human exposure to biting mosquitoes on the landscape is of crucial importance for developing predictive capabilities for malaria risk assessment. In this work, we use satellite remote sensing in combination with medical and socio-economic surveys of subclinical malaria and entomological surveys to explore the role of land cover and land use as indicators of both human exposure and vector hazard in malaria risk. Our results indicate that at the individual level, malaria prevalence is highest within the working-age population. This, in combination with very low levels of malaria prevalence in children under 10-years of age, indicates that malaria transmission is occurring in areas removed from the immediate village settings and the occupational exposure can be linked to land use. In addition, our results show that the rate of land cover change may be linked to the high rates of malaria prevalence at the village scale.



Full talk
ID: 791 / 305R: 4
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: land-use change, urbanization, Lyme disease, United States

Urbanization, land-use change and human health: an exploration about human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern United States

Liying Guo, Liping Di

Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems/ George Mason University, United States of America

Figuring out the role of urbanization and land-use changes in the increased human Lyme disease cases is of particular importance to public health. Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne disease transmitted the pathogen by the infected tick acquiring. The confirmed annual LD cases have continued to increase since Centers for Disease Control (CDC) begun to record the LD cases. Currently LD is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the United States, mostly concentrated in the Northeast and Upper Midwest with 96% of reported LD cases. According to CDC, the confirmed LD cases for entire U.S. during the five-year period from 1992-1996 were 59,363 and that from 2007-2011 were 133,249, a two-time increase. However, phenomenal increase of confirmed cases has been reported in the suburban sprawl counties of the Northeast megalopolis along the I-95 corridor. In Metro-DC area, Fairfax and Loudoun counties of Virginia and Montgomery and Howard counties of Maryland all reported more than 10-times increases in the confirmed LD cases during the same period. Coincidently, those counties were also the hotspots of land use changes due to urban expansion. Meanwhile, traditional mature urban areas, such as DC and Baltimore city, experienced few increases or even decrease of LD cases. Therefore, what is the role of land use changes in the increase of LD cases? What causes the dramatic contrast in the LD cases between the rapid urbanizing counties and the mature urban area? To answer these questions, this study tested a set of hypotheses about the relationship between urbanization, land-use changes and the number of LD cases in the Metro-DC area. The different patterns in the increase of the LD cases between the mature urban areas and the urbanizing counties provide a hint on using land-use changes and associated landscape indices to identify the environmental causes for the phenomenal increase of LD. This study is benefit for lowering or mitigating zoonotic threat driven by land-use change through early detection and knowledge-based land use planning.



Full talk
ID: 624 / 305R: 5
305R Human health outcomes of land use decisions
Keywords: nutrition security, food trade, sustainable diets, human health

Global nutrition metabolism: trends and patterns of dietary nutrient production and trade

Ozge Geyik, Brett Bryan, Michalis Hadjikakou

Deakin University, Australia

The quantity and quality of food consumption have changed substantially over the last two decades. The triple burden of malnutrition – the coexistence of hunger, micronutrient deficiency and obesity – has become more prevalent around the world. Despite a growing focus on the nutritional aspect of global food supplies, historical trends in the stock, production, a variety of uses (e.g. feed and seed), and net trade balance of nutrients are yet to be fully understood. Given the increasing volumes of international food trade – from 16% to 25% of total production between 2009 and 2014 – a better understanding of the dynamics of nutrient flows and their links to land systems is of critical importance for research and policy-making.

Current literature provides a time-limited understanding of nutrient availability using highly aggregated food categories such as vegetables, animals, and seafood. It also suggests that international trade may be a contributing factor in global nutrition security. This study analyses the spatial and temporal trends of global nutrient availability with fine-level production and trade data of crops, livestock, and aquaculture during 1990-2016. It then, evaluates corresponding nutritional values produced locally, re-distributed via trade, and the final balance after stocks, losses and other uses are accounted for. Finally, the study analyses the trends in country-specific nutrient adequacy as the share of people who are provided with Recommended Dietary Intake as defined by the World Health Organization.

We expect to find significant but differentiated trends among different food groups and regions and to identify key crops and trade flows associated with different nutrients and changing patterns over time.

As one of the strong determinants of human health, nutrition security requires nuanced consideration in land system decisions. Outcomes of this study are also important for advancing knowledge on environmental aspects of nutrition security as the next step forward. Furthermore, given the observed changes in the nutritional content of a variety of crops (such as wheat and rice) with the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, understanding the flows and re-distribution patterns of nutrients is essential for decision-making in agricultural and aquacultural production, and trade.



Flash talk
ID: 635 / 305R: 6
308R Mixed-methods approaches to identify and include the peoples’ needs in modeling urban spaces and their settings
Keywords: ABM, deprived urban areas, mixed methods, remote sensing, ethnography

A holistic perspective on modelling deprived urban areas

Nina Schwarz1, Mike Lees2, Karin Pfeffer1, Debraj Roy2

1University of Twente, the Netherlands; 2Computational Science Lab, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands

A vast amount of the world’s urban population is living in deprived urban areas, aka slums. With much of the future urban population growth projected for Africa and Asia, managing deprived urban areas will likely remain a major challenge also in the future. In this talk, we will thus focus on studying deprived urban areas, using the lens of complex systems thinking. Our starting point is the current state of the art in agent-based modelling (ABM) of deprived urban areas as one of the methods of complexity science. ABMs model systems in a bottom-up approach; for instance, location choices of residents can result in spatial patterns of deprivation and/or urban land use change at the settlement or city level. Building and validating such models requires significant temporal and spatial data and other contextual information. Qualitative ethnographic work and spatial mapping of deprived areas through remote sensing can contribute here: Ethnographic work with its manifold methods such as interviews, analysing biographies or participatory observation has, for instance, revealed that deprived areas are not homogenous – people’s needs are very different even within the same locality, and they might face multiple deprivations at once. Complementary to the rich level of detail about individuals or families provided by ethnographic work, remote sensing contributes through mapping urban land use and urban structures, for instance, building density and roof materials as indicators for open spaces and housing quality. Combining these methods does not solely benefit building ABMs and analysing their outputs, but leads to a holistic, mixed-methods approach for better understanding the development of deprived urban areas. With such a holistic approach, all domains could benefit from each other. For example, ABMs can serve as virtual laboratories for testing hypotheses originally developed in ethnographic studies.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm313R: Social metabolism and land-system science: stocks, flows, services, and implications for sustainability transformations
Session Chair: Helmut Haberl
Session Chair: Felix Creutzig
Session Chair: Patrick Hostert
MB-201 
 
Full talk
ID: 330 / 313R: 1
313R Social metabolism and land-system science: stocks, flows, services, and implications for sustainability transformations
Keywords: social metabolism; urban areas; infrastructure; socio-ecological transformation; sustainability transformation

Introductory talk to the session on social metabolism and land-system science

Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Austria

This presentation will kick-start the session by outlining the interrelations between socioecological flows of energy or materials and land systems. It will touch upon established approaches in land-system science such as the analysis of flows of biomass-based products such as food or bioenergy or land-use intensity indicators such as the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP). Underappreciated issues that may gain importance in the future, such as the use of minerals or metals and their accumulation in long-lived material stocks (e.g., in buildings or infrastructures), will be introduced. Empirical examples will include studies of global socioeconomic material stocks such as buildings, infrastructure and materials. The mass of all such stocks (c800 Pg) now rivals that of all living plants on land (c900 Pg dry matter). A focus on material stocks holds great promise for land-system science because stocks are characterized by their location and spatial patterns, both of which are important in terms of their impacts, and in terms of their resource requirements. For example, transport energy demand strongly depends on the spatial patterns of settlements and workspaces, and the transport infrastructures through which they are linked. The presentation will also outline challenges and opportunities for sustainability transformation resulting from this new perspective.



Full talk
ID: 459 / 313R: 2
313R Social metabolism and land-system science: stocks, flows, services, and implications for sustainability transformations
Keywords: socioecological transformation; stock-flow-service nexus; social metabolism; material stocks

The stock-flow-service nexus: Implications for sustainability transformations and future land systems

Görg Christoph, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Melanie Pichler, Helmut Haberl

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Austria

Recent analyses of deep decarbonization pathways (e.g., in the IPCC 1.5 degree report) or of the synergies and tradeoffs involved in moving towards the SDGs suggest that fundamental changes - both in biophysical and in societal terms – are required for a sustainability transformation. Hence, a critical understanding of the challenges ahead needs to be advanced by focusing on the interdependencies between societies and their natural environment. Current socio-metabolic research traces flows of energy, materials or substances to capture resource use: input of raw materials or energy, their fate in production and consumption, and the discharge of wastes and emissions. This approach has yielded important insights into eco-efficiency and long-term drivers of resource use, but needs further improvement to address the actors, institutions and the power relations that hinder or enable far reaching transformations. Moreover, socio-metabolic research has not yet fully incorporated material stocks (e.g., infrastructure, buildings, etc.) or the services they provide (e.g., mobility, housing, etc.), hence, not completely exploiting the analytic power of the metabolism concept for sustainability science and integrated land-system analysis.

This presentation will outline the material stock–flow–service (SFS) nexus approach focused on the analysis of interrelations between material and energy flows, socioeconomic material stocks (“in-use stocks of materials”) and the services provided by specific stock/flow combinations. To detect options and strategies for more sustainable pathways, the contributions of stocks and flows to various services for societies will be scrutinized. Provisioning systems for crucial services such as shelter, mobility, education, food or drinking water can serve as an analytical framework to link the biophysical dimensions of the SFS nexus with their socio-economic (i.e., political-economic, institutional, discoursive or cultural) dimensions and allow to shed light on the contested actor constellations and power relations involved in resource use. Such an approach on material stocks and infrastructure allows to better grasp the biophysical as well as socio-economic path dependencies resulting from past investments. Moreover, as stocks can be localized and mapped, this approach helps linking sustainability transformation research with integrated land-change science. This perspective provides an entry point to a transdisciplinary mode of research that aims to provide transformative knowledge on biophysical constraints, institutional challenges and contested actor constellations in strategies for transformations towards sustainability.



Full talk
ID: 481 / 313R: 3
313R Social metabolism and land-system science: stocks, flows, services, and implications for sustainability transformations
Keywords: Sentinel-2, material stocks, fraction mapping, national-scale, remote sensing

Wall-to-wall material stock mapping – from satellite data to material stock modeling

Franz Schug, David Frantz, Akpona Okujeni, Sebastian van der Linden, Patrick Hostert

Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany

Mapping long-lived material stocks in buildings and infrastructure over large areas is a particular challenge. Bottom-up monitoring is time-consuming and top-down information is difficult to retrieve because of the heterogeneity and rather small unit size of buildings and infrastructural features. Using remote sensing for mapping human settlements and infrastructure seems to be highly suitable to contribute towards a better understanding of material stock distribution and patterns. It may in addition serve as an input to stock-flow-service modeling and sustainable transformation research.

We use optical remote sensing data for large area mapping of urban land cover fractions per pixel. Our approach is based on machine learning regression with synthetically mixed training spectra using free and globally available Sentinel-2 imagery. With a spatial resolution of 10-20m, along with its increased temporal and spectral resolution, Sentinel-2 is especially promising for infrastructure mapping. Using image time series metrics instead of spectra from single images, we account for the variability of surface cover throughout one year and thus enhance the reliability of urban surface material detection. Time series information supports generalizing models over time and space and also accounts for the phenology of urban green spaces to minimize typical confusion in satellite image analysis when separating pervious soil and impervious surfaces.

In the context of material stock analysis, accurate urban surface fractions serve as a valuable input to large area stock pattern research. We map fractions of impervious area, high and low vegetation and soil, which in combination allows to make first approximations of material stock occurrence in space. We illustrate workflows and show first results from Germany and Austria that underpin the unique information content in Sentinel-2 data for material stock mapping and modeling. An outlook towards national-scale mapping is provided.



Full talk
ID: 522 / 313R: 4
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: land use change, regional food systems, dietary scenarios, greenhouse gas emissions, foodshed

Modelling dietary scenarios for a sustainable food provision system of Vienna

Fritz Wittmann, Christian Lauk, Michaela Theurl, Michael Eder, Fridolin Krausmann

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

Safeguarding a sustainable provision of healthy food for urban areas is one of the current major societal challenges. Three general and often suggested measures to reduce the environmental footprint of the food provision system are a) a switch to organic agriculture, b) a switch to healthier diets with a lower share of animal products, and c) a regionalization of food supply.

Taking the example of Vienna, we investigate the extent of these three interlinked approaches towards their contribution to a sustainable food provision system and their implications for regional farm development. By taking a systemic perspective, we couple a biomass flow accounting model, which allows to link urban consumption to rural production, and an economic model of agricultural production within a radial distance of 100 km around Vienna. We modulate agricultural production systems (i.e., conventional or organic), diets and degree of regionalization, and look at the combined ecological and economic impacts of different scenarios. In particular, we focus on the question of whether and under which conditions a regionalization of the urban food supply can contribute to a more sustainable urban food provision system. In doing so, our emphasis lies on greenhouse gas emissions and economic implications for farms, such as changes in farm enterprise types. By integrating spatially-explicit data from the Integrated Administration and Control System of the European Union for the farms, we explore changes in land use and spatial distribution of farm enterprise types considering biophysical constraints. Taken together, the effects of the different scenarios provide a deeper understanding on the urban-rural interrelations and show pathways for future transitions of the food provision system.



Full talk
ID: 487 / 313R: 5
313R Social metabolism and land-system science: stocks, flows, services, and implications for sustainability transformations
Keywords: urban expansion; global cities; urban sprawl, fuel price

Influence of gasoline price on urban sprawl: Evidence from global cities

Felix Creutzig, Sohail Ahmad

MCC Berlin, Germany

Urban sprawl is one of the major challenges for sustainable urban development. To limit urban sprawl spatial planning strategies have been put forward, albeit with limited success. Instead, both theory and empirical studies point to the crucial role of marginal transport costs, and in particular gasoline and diesel prices, for urban expansion. Here, we investigate whether and to what extent gasoline price influences the size of the built area, urban density profiles, and street connectivity. Panel regressions explain urban area expansion and change in density profiles as a function of gasoline price in 155 global representative cities at three time points (1990, 2000, and 2014) after controlling for income and population. The results reveal that a 10% increase in gasoline price is associated with a 2.1% smaller urban area. A 10% increase in gasoline price is associated with 1.1% increase in density, after controlling for income level. The findings suggest that gasoline taxes is a key policy instrument to limit urban sprawl.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm315R: The role of policy and planning in urban land change: conceptualizations and evidence
Session Chair: Anna M Hersperger
Session Chair: Stefan Siedentop
MB-206 
 
Full talk
ID: 349 / 315R: 1
315R The role of policy and planning in urban land change: conceptualizations and evidence
Keywords: Land use change, Urban spatial development, European cities, European strategies

Is urban spatial development on the right track? Comparing strategies and trends in the European Union

Chiara Cortinovis1,2, Dagmar Haase2,3,4, Bruno Zanon1, Davide Geneletti1

1University of Trento, Italy; 2Humboldt University of Berlin, Germany; 3Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Germany; 4Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden

Urban spatial development is a crucial issue for spatial planning and urban governance, ultimately determining cities’ sustainability. While a set of spatial strategies to address urban development are progressively gaining international consensus, their actual applicability is still contested. An interesting test-bed is represented by the European Union (EU), where common spatial strategies have been discussed since 1993. This paper aims to identify the main spatial strategies promoted at the EU-level and to investigate whether the recent spatial development trends of EU cities have been following the directions suggested by the strategies. By analysing 30 policy documents, we identified six main strategies: compact city, urban regeneration, functional mix, no land take, green city, and high density. For each strategy, we selected a set of indicators and applied them to the analysis of 175 cities representative of the variety of conditions across the EU.

Most cities progressed towards compact city and functional mix, but almost none halted land take. Urban regeneration was more intense in Northern and Western cities, while Southern cities show the most significant increase in green spaces. Growing cities achieved a higher density, but expanded inefficiently producing abandonment of urbanized areas and fragmentation of agricultural land. Shrinking cities continued in the paradox of contemporary population loss and expansion already observed by previous studies. The results highlight potential conflicts and trade-offs in the implementation of the strategies. Similar analyses can stimulate comparison, exchange, and cooperation among cities, thus supporting the mainstreaming of non-prescriptive strategies formulated at the international level.



Full talk
ID: 518 / 315R: 2
315R The role of policy and planning in urban land change: conceptualizations and evidence
Keywords: urban land change, governance effectiveness, plan implementation, planning intentionsstrategies

Quantifying the transformative capacity of strategic planning: novel method and evidence from two European urban regions

Anna M Hersperger1, Gaëtan Palka1, Sofia Pagliarin2

1Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Switzerland; 2University of Bamberg

Strategic spatial planning is a multifaceted activity and its cornerstone, the plans, are as much communicative tools than roadmaps. However, they rarely are blueprints. Indeed, plans are developed and implemented in a complex context of multiple drivers and actors and unforeseen events that can affect plan content, stall plan implementation or induce new plan-making and implementation trajectories. Consequently, the establishment of direct relationships between plans and urban transformations, i.e. land changes, is conceptually and empirically challenging. There is indeed a clear need for novel approaches to quantify the transformative capacity of strategic planning.

In order to address this need we develop a method based on the decomposition of the planning process with the Analytical Hierarchy Process. For data collection we employ expert-questionnaires. Specifically, we investigate to what degree governance processes of plan-making and -implementation as well as external events facilitate or hinder the implementation of development strategies in terms of 1) transportation infrastructure and built development as well as 2) nature conservation strategies. The method is tested for strategic spatial plans in Lyon, France and Copenhagen, Denmark. We found that strategic spatial planning in Lyon has overall a higher transformative potential than in Copenhagen. The difference is primarily due to the role and power of the regional planning authority. The method can complement traditional case study analysis on the efficiency and performance of planning and has the potential to deliver data on governance for land change modelling.



Full talk
ID: 381 / 315R: 3
315R The role of policy and planning in urban land change: conceptualizations and evidence
Keywords: Regional governance, governance capacity, spatial planning, land use change, policy arrangements

Conceptualizing the regional governance capacity of spatial planning

Nadine Kiessling, Marco Pütz

Eidg. Forschungsanstalt WSL, Switzerland

Spatial Planning is supposed to deal with a number of phenomena including urban sprawl, growth, shrinkage, and conflicting land use interests. Moderating different stakeholders and applying a variety of instruments requires capacities we refer to as governance capacities. Whereas researchers have studied socio-economic influence factors on urban land use change in many different ways, little is known about the features characterizing spatial planning’s governance capacity.

Our paper aims at developing an assessment framework on spatial planning’s regional governance capacity concerning land use change in growing Swiss and German urban-rural regions. The Policy Arrangement Approach (PAA) serves as basis for the framework. We focus on:

1. Current challenges for spatial planning;

2. Actors’ strategic behaviour and interactions;

3. The link between potential governance capacity and governance performance.

We extensively reviewed scholarly literature and interviewed Swiss and German spatial planning experts. We developed a first regional governance capacity framework that serves as a research plan for our case study analysis.

Our assessment framework will be applied and tested in a multiple case study. We selected five cases using the method of difference. We considered “Planungsregionen” in Germany and “Kantone” in Switzerland as adequate spatial units since they all use strategic spatial plans as an intervention instrument. We will apply qualitative and quantitative research and evaluation methods. Based on the empirical evidences drawn from the case study, we will be able to provide a comprehensive regional governance capacity assessment framework.

Our results will help us to understand the role of governance arrangements in spatial planning and their underlying mechanisms and drivers. Especially, it might improve the understanding of the role of actors in spatial planning. Comparing Swiss and German regions will enable planners to learn from other experiences and assess their own practice accordingly.



Full talk
ID: 567 / 315R: 4
315R The role of policy and planning in urban land change: conceptualizations and evidence
Keywords: urban land use change, regional planning, regulatory intensity, content analysis, regression analysis

The influence of regional planning on urban land use development in Germany and Switzerland

Sebastian Eichhorn1, David Pehlke2

1Institut für Landes- und Stadtentwicklungsforschung, Germany; 2Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen, Institut für Geografie, Bereich für Raumplanung und Stadtgeografie, Germany

Land use management is traditionally seen as one of the core tasks of regional planning. In the debate on preventive climate protection and climate adaptation, questions concerning spatial land use management have recently attracted increased attention.

The possible impacts of regional planning are nonetheless not uncontroversial in Germany and Switzerland, as also in other Western industrial countries. On the one hand, the efficacy of regional planning is largely denied, or at least the weak implementation of regional planning goals criticized. On the other hand, regional planning is frequently censured for hindering growth and regional development by applying overly stringent regulations.

This controversy, which is also political in nature, represents the starting point of the research project “The influence of regional planning on urban land use development in Germany and Switzerland”. The goal is to undertake a bi-national comparison of two federal countries in order to investigate urban land use changes and the actual impact of regional planning on urban land use development.

Therefore, we develop a multidimensional score to capture the regulatory intensity of every planning region in Germany and every canton in Suisse. By using content analysis, we identify the main positive and negative planning instruments used and their strength to influence local growth management on residential, commercial and retail urban land use change. To validate the influence of these instruments, we overlay the score for regulatory intensity with the actual spatial development in the respective region and calculate multivariate regression models to prove the influence statistically.

At the session, we would like to present interim results of our research project to describe our methodological approach to operationalize regulatory intensity of regional planning and discuss its influence and effectiveness on urban land use change in Germany and Switzerland.



Full talk
ID: 851 / 315R: 5
315R The role of policy and planning in urban land change: conceptualizations and evidence
Keywords: policy instruments, urbanization, built-up development trends, policy coordination

Planning for urban built-up development at national level: linking policy and patterns in Romania

Simona R. Gradinaru1,2, Peilei Fan2, Cristian Ioja1, Mihai Nita1, Anna Hersperger3

1University of Bucharest, Romania; 2Michigan State University, CGCEO, USA; 3Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Switzerland

Globally, urban built-up development is taking place at unprecedented rates. Despite being a pressing issue, countries are not always successful in influencing the patterns and trends of urban built-up. Literature reveals several causes including economic events that made urban built-up expansion trends unexpected, influences by the local market forces, ineffective methods for forecasting population and land use and low efficiency of spatial planning and policies. Patterns of built-up development prove difficult to predict and guide especially if countries undergo major political and institutional changes.

To better understand its trends and propose realistic solutions to mitigate and limit its negative effects, recent research in the land science and spatial planning communities suggest for urban development assessments to move beyond the local level and address built-up development at broader scales, from regional to global. Moreover, more research is needed to understand how planning and policy play a role in guiding specific urban land changes.

By building on the experience of Romania, we aim to provide a better understanding of how policy and planning, particularly the one conducted at national level, plays a role in urban land change. Our analysis focuses on the past 26 years in order to provide a comprehensive view of urban development in the context of political, economic and institutional changes (e.g. EU membership, economic crisis). To fulfill the research aim, we first (1) identify built-up dynamics patterns and trends over time by conducting a spatio-temporal cluster analysis. This analysis reveals locations of continuous or sporadic built-up development. Secondly, we (2) select and conduct a content analysis of the most important policy instruments adopted at national, in order to evaluate the level of policy coordination on urban development. By paying attention to the political and institutional context in which the policy instruments were adopted, we assess their direct or potential impact on built-up development. Finally, we (3) analyze the connection between identified built-up development patterns and the objectives set in the policy instruments.

Findings reveal that the way urban development has been addressed at national changed over time, being influenced by the accession to the European Union, the increasing diversity of planning instruments to address urban development, and by the multiple actors entering the decision-making arena. The spatial analysis revealed shifts in built-up development patterns and locations, as well as in the dominant land functions. Results show that urban built-up development was influenced by the economic factors (e.g. remittances), policy instruments directly linked to funding (e.g. EU programmes), objectives on major transportation routes and the transfer of decision-making power from national to lower planning levels.

Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of drivers of urban land change and their dynamic influence over longer time periods.

 
10:30am - 12:00pm333R: Mapping land system through coupling the biophysical and socioeconomic attributes based on remote sensing and big data approaches - Focus on land rent & markets
Session Chair: Jinwei Dong
Session Chair: Daniel Müller
Session Chair: Graciela Isabel Metternicht
Session Chair: Tobia Lakes
Session Chair: Patrick Hostert
Session Chair: Le Yu
UniS-A -122 
 
Full talk
ID: 586 / 333R: 1
332R Land market dynamics and their effects on land use
Keywords: land prices, land use, urban sprawl, zoning, arable land

Insights into the dynamics of the market for arable land in Brandenburg, Germany

Jens Kolbe, Axel Werwatz

Technische Universität Berlin, Germany

Prices for arable land are on a rise for over a decade now in Germany. As a consequence, farmers and their respective lobby groups call for stronger regulations on the agricultural land market. Next to the political dimension of the development, there are also economic consequences which have to be considered. Increasing prices will, for instance, have an effect on productivity, farm size and structure and land use intensity.
This study investigates on the process of price formation on the agricultural land market. In order to draw conclusions for policy maker on how to deal with high priced arable land, we focus on the demand side of the market. This means that we analyse the development of prices and potential land use in the study area of Brandenburg, Germany. As a matter of fact, other land use cases like residential, industrial and nature conservation pressurise the available stock of arable land.

The foundation of the analysis is a comprehensive data set of land transactions for the years 2000-2017. Exploiting the adjacency of the growing urban area of Berlin, this study aims to estimate the impact of urban sprawl on land prices. The ability to merge transaction data with spatial data from other sources inhibits a great potential for the analysis. This includes information on soil quality, land use, population density and transportation.

First results show a positive influence of urban sprawl on land prices. But even after controlling for urban sprawl and other price building factors like soil quality, the steep upward price trend remains in the data. This holds in particular for plots sold in areas far away from urban agglomerations. Further investigation seems necessary, in order to reveal the dynamics on this particular market and give advice to planners and policy makers.



Full talk
ID: 620 / 333R: 2
332R Land market dynamics and their effects on land use
Keywords: land prices, land markets, geospatial data systems, data philanthropy

Geospatial land price data: a public good for land system science

Oliver T Coomes, Graham K MacDonald, Yann Le Polain de Waroux

McGill University, Canada

Improved access to data on land prices at the regional and global scale is vital to the land system science community. In many studies of land use and land cover change, land prices are proxied by measures such as market accessibility, or more often, omitted because of a lack of data. Recent studies by members of the GLP community that draw on commercial data or primary data from landowners, however, show the importance of land price data for understanding land-use change. We argue for the creation of an open-access global land price database that would make spatially-explicit land price information available as a public informational good to the international science and policy community. Such a development would be informed by past initiatives to compile and share a wide range of geospatial data, from land cover to population, land tenure and protection status and economic development, and benefit from growing interest in data philanthropy. The initiative would face many challenges in gathering and assembling land price data from a myriad of disparate sources, particularly in data-scare regions, and fusing those data into a consistent database, but the potential for applications in land system science are substantial. The GLP could be both a major beneficiary and contributor to the development of a global land price database.



Full talk
ID: 401 / 333R: 3
333R Mapping land system through coupling the biophysical and socioeconomic attributes based on remote sensing and big data approaches
Keywords: active learning, cubesat, cropland, smallholder, crowdsourcing

Integrating humans and machines to map smallholder-dominated agricultural frontiers

Lyndon Despard Estes1, Lei Song1, Su Ye1, Ryan Avery2, Dennis McRitchie3, Stephanie Debats4, Sitian Xiong1, Ron Eastman1, Tammy Woodard1, Kelly Caylor2

1Clark University, United States of America; 2University of California Santa Barbara; 3Independent Consultant; 4Uber, Inc.

During the next few decades, agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will undergo a large-scale expansion to meet the region’s rapidly growing food demands. This change will have a significant impact on the trajectory of global change, but understanding that impact is difficult because mapping trends in the region’s smallholder-dominated croplands (which is critical to understanding agriculture-environment interactions) is a major Earth Observation challenge. To address this challenge, we present a new method for mapping land cover based on active learning. Active learning engages a large number of human mappers via a crowdsourcing platform to iteratively train and test a computer vision/machine learning algorithm that classifies high spatial and temporal resolution imagery collected by cubesats. After initial training on a random sample, the algorithm directs the human mappers to collect new sites in the areas of highest classification uncertainty, whereupon it retrains and re-evaluates performance. This process iterates until accuracy gains saturate. This approach demonstrates the ability to rapidly collect high quality training data, while the classifier is effective in distinguishing cropland from non-cropland across agricultural systems, ranging from complex smallholder landscapes to large-scale, irrigated croplands. When these two components are combined in the active learning framework, high accuracy (True Skill Statistic > 0.65) classifications are produced that require substantially less training data (62% fewer sites) than an alternative approach using a purely randomized approach to sites selection. This method is scaled up on cloud computing infrastructure, and is being deployed to create a next-generation cropland map for sub-Saharan Africa that not only maps agricultural cover, but delineates the boundaries of individual fields or groups of fields, with the ability to update these maps at a seasonal time scale over large areas. Here we demonstrate the capabilities of this system for mapping highly dynamic croplands in Ghana, including information on the size class distribution of fields. We also present a method that accounts for training data error in assessing overall map accuracy.



Full talk
ID: 461 / 333R: 4
333R Mapping land system through coupling the biophysical and socioeconomic attributes based on remote sensing and big data approaches
Keywords: SPAM, crop maps, optimization, household surveys

Generating high-resolution national crop distribution maps: Combining statistics, gridded data and surveys using an optimization approach

Michiel Van Dijk1, Liangzhi You2, Petr Havlik1

1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; 2International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Detailed information on the location and size of crop area is essential for the assessment of agricultural production, food security and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from land use change. Although, there exist several initiatives to produce spatially-explicit crop distribution maps, these are either limited to a small number of crops (e.g. palm oil, soybeans and maize) or are generally too coarse for detailed country assessments. The aim of this paper is to present a flexible model to create high-resolution crop distribution maps that cover all major crop groups in FAOSTAT and incorporate all relevant information from a wide number of sources, including subnational agricultural statistics, land use maps and household survey data. The model builds on the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) presented in You et al. (2006, 2014), who use a cross entropy framework to allocate the FAOSTAT crop statistics to a 5 arcmin grid. We improve the model in several ways. First, we combine a Bayesian spatial modelling framework with data from nationally representative household surveys to create crop-specific probability maps, which act as priors in the model. To account for the various drivers of cropland use, we include a range of explanatory factors covering both socio-economic (e.g. distance to roads, population density and farming system) and bio-physical (e.g. soil, topography and climate) variables. Second, the SPAM routine to spatially allocate the FAOSTAT crop statistics is modified to optimize ‘around’ (potentially) available crop distribution maps based on satellite imagery, citizen science and Open Street Map. This ensures that the most accurate information on the location of crops is incorporated. Finally, we increase the resolution of the crop distribution maps from 5 arc min to 30 arc sec for greater detail. The model is implemented and tested for Malawi and Zambia using data for the year 2010.



Full talk
ID: 860 / 333R: 5
333R Mapping land system through coupling the biophysical and socioeconomic attributes based on remote sensing and big data approaches
Keywords: Land use theories, global land allocation

Classical theories of land use: a model-to-data assessment

Thierry Brunelle1, David Makowski2, Patrice Dumas1

1CIRAD, France; 2INRA, France

Global economic models relies extensively on classical economic theories of land use - Ricardian rent theory and von Thünen location’s theory - to project future dynamics of land expansion over the world. In spite of their influence, the effective capacity of these theories to explain land allocation at global scale has never been thoroughly measured and their validity is still debated. To help settle the debate, this paper aims at evaluating the classical theories of land use against the available spatial datasets regarding actual land use, land suitability and land accessibility. This work is carried out using specific econometric methods to deal with spatial autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The explained variable correspond to land uses (pastures, total cropland, main crop types). The Ricardian theory and the von Thunen theory are tested by using respectively an index of land suitability and an index of land accessibility as explicative variable. In addition, we use different sources of data to take into account the uncertainty surrounding them. Our results may be used to assess the relevance of global scales scenarios of land use produced by economic models.



Full talk
ID: 830 / 333R: 6
108R Farming into the future: balancing global competitiveness and localised comparative advantage?
Keywords: comparative advantage, competitive advantage, land rent, land value, suboptimal

How global competitiveness drives comparative disadvantages in farming: a land value and rent explanation.

Anders Wästfelt1, Qian Zhang2, Brian Kuns3

1Stockholm University, Sweden; 2Stockholm University, Sweden; 3Stockholm University, Sweden

The conventional meaning of “comparative advantage” is paradoxical. A comparative advantage in productivity for one place over another does not necessarily mean that these two places are competing on equal conditions concerning labour terms, energy costs, environmental impacts, etc. Unequal competition instead often leads to the production of comparative disadvantages between places, when taking into consideration optimal uses of the land.

For locations which are well-integrated into world markets, land values can be high without a demand for land as an agricultural production resource, which is often also reflected in comparatively low agricultural land rents and in an overall low dependency rate of subsistence production for these places.

This paper shows that high land values in peri-urban locations result in transformations away from resource efficient land use, while low land rent in these same locations make it possible for relatively small scale farms to find a way to become locally competitive. Meanwhile, in rural areas, the combination of low land rents and values with the necessity of being globally competitive forces farmers to pursue sub-optimal land and resource use. They increase labour productivity to such a level that area productivity decreases. Land rents/values also play a role in inducing unsustainably intensive industrial farming in rural areas.

Differences between land rents for agricultural purposes and land values leads to sub-optimal agricultural land-use, where unequal competitiveness is superseding local comparative advantage, an inequality which produces a devaluation of land as a food producing resource. In turn, this heightens concerns about agricultural productivity and the challenges of feeding a future global population of 10 or more billion. It is important to reconceptualise land value away from the profits that can be generated from land in a global and urban centred economy and more in line with criteria emphasizing self-sufficiency and ecological sustainability.

 
12:00pm - 1:15pmLunch
 
1:15pm - 2:45pm251N: Exploring land change dynamics across the Mediterranean for meeting the needs and value the priorities of people
Session Chair: Tobias Plieninger
Session Chair: Cristina Quintas-Soriano
Session Chair: Andreas Bürkert
Session Chair: Angeliki Foutri
Session Chair: Thymios Dimopoulos
MB-215 
 
ID: 727 / 251N: 1
251N Exploring land change dynamics across the Mediterranean for meeting the needs and value the priorities of people
Keywords: Mediterranean land systems, trajectories, data mining, multiscale, local case studies

Land system dynamics in the Mediterranean basin across scales as relevant indicator for species diversity and local food systems

Marta Debolini1, Johanna Fusco2, Elisa Marraccini3, Claude Napoleone4

1UMR EMMAH, INRA, France; 2UMR IMBE, CNRS, France; 3UP INTERACT, UniLaSalle, France; 4UR Ecodeveloppement, INRA, France

The DIVERCROP project aims to highlights interactions between current dynamics of the Mediterranean agricultural practices, species diversity and local food systems at multiple spatial scales. An assessment of the land system diversity and related changes occurring on the Mediterranean area and their drivers has been carried out. From this framework, we will evaluate how these changes impact the agricultural and species diversity at different spatial scales, and how this measure of diversity allows to locate areas that should potentially experience an enhancement of local food systems. First, we classified Mediterranean land systems on the two dates 2005 and 2015 in order to highlight ongoing short-term dynamics. A multi-method classification scheme coupling expert-based and data mining approaches allows to identify four main type of changes: (1) from mixed agriculture to specialized fruit groves; (2) from agricultural areas to urban and/or periurban areas; (3) from agroforestry to arable systems and (4) from predominant bare soils to agricultural areas. These dynamics can be characterized as different ongoing process, such as intensification, periurbanization and specialization of agriculture. The analysis at the whole Mediterranean basin scale allowed to sample seven local case study located on different Mediterranean countries, and representative for the assessed land system dynamics. For each case study, we will identify local drivers of territorial dynamics in terms of governance and stakeholders’ behaviour through a series of interviews to key-informants and local farmers, together with the elaboration of agricultural census data. Moreover, we will implement a participatory approach aimed to propose possible future scenarios of local land system evolution. The final objective of the project is the development of a multi-scale model that investigate the consequences of local and regional land system changes on agricultural practices and species diversity, and on the spatial capabilities to enhance local food systems.



ID: 679 / 251N: 2
251N Exploring land change dynamics across the Mediterranean for meeting the needs and value the priorities of people
Keywords: urban ecosystems, green infrastructure, multifunctionality, small islands

Assessing spatial variability of ecosystem services to promote evidence-based decision-making for sustainable land use management

Mario Balzan, Judita Tomaskinova

Institute of Applied Sciences, Malta College of Arts, Science and Technology, Malta

Recent ecosystem and ecosystem service assessment in the Mediterranean small island state Malta provide evidence of the multifunctionality of ecosystems and their contribution to human well-being. Results from islands-wide ecosystem service assessments indicate that there are several synergies between ecosystem services and but also demonstrates the presence of a rural-urban gradient in multi-functionality, as more intensive land uses impact more strongly on ecosystems and their services in urban landscapes. Ecosystem service capacity is low in urban areas, but the rate of urban ecosystem services flow is higher indicating a potential mismatch between ecosystem service demand and capacity. Based on these observations, a local-scale assessment of ecosystems contributing to ecosystem service provision in an urban agglomeration has been carried out. Preliminary results provide evidence of significant contributions of urban ecosystems to human well-being but may also provide the basis for the identification of targeted ‘nature-based solutions’. The latter is seen as an opportunity to operationalise the ecosystem service concept in urban planning and policy-making. Finally, this presentation will provide an overview of recently funded research activities that identify knowledge needs relating to the operationalisation of ecosystem services concept and which build the evidence-base through capacity-building and targeted participatory processes for knowledge co-creation, and finally through the development of policy-oriented tools and methodologies.



ID: 810 / 251N: 3
251N Exploring land change dynamics across the Mediterranean for meeting the needs and value the priorities of people
Keywords: assessment, biodiversity, ecosystem services, monitoring, policy

Developing positive futures for people and Mediterranean wetlands

Ilse Geijzendorffer1, Ziga Malek2, Özge Balkiz3, Anis Guelmami1, Nigel Taylor1

1Tour du Valat, France; 2Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands; 3DKM Turkey

The MedWet initiative is the only regional initiative of the Ramsar convention that provides a report at regular intervals on the state, trends and pressures of Mediterranean wetlands. These reports are called Mediterranean Wetland Outlooks and are developed by the Mediterranean Wetland Observatory hosted by the Tour du Valat. MedWet community unites both NGOs as well as representatives of Mediterranean countries and as such it bridges between science and policies as well as science and the reality of wetland conservation at site level.

Unfortunately, the Mediterranean Wetland Outlook 2 (2018) like the Mediterranean Wetland Outlook 1 (2012) demonstrates that wetlands and their related species are threatened at a higher rate in the Mediterranean basin than the global average. This despite that Mediterranean decision makers have been putting effort in designating new Ramsar sites. For decision makers like for the actors at site level, this lack of improvement is of course saddening news.

To help decision makers including meaningful and impactful measures to change the current detrimental land cover changes as well as to help them achieve their obligation for international conventions such as Paris climate agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals and the Aichi Targets, we aim to develop positive narratives that demonstrate what steps need to be taken and how this results in a real change of the future outlook. This is to provide a positive empowering alternative, not only for decision makers but also for actors responsible for local sites and the wider public.

In this presentation we present results from the land change dynamics for Mediterranean wetlands and their biodiversity, from the recent past up to the first projections towards the future and how we engage with actors at different spatial scales along the process.



ID: 276 / 251N: 4
251N Exploring land change dynamics across the Mediterranean for meeting the needs and value the priorities of people
Keywords: Ethnobiology, change dynamics, Moroccan High Atlas, Amazigh, cultural landscapes

Ethnobiology as a tool to analyze change dynamics, minimize conflict over land use and support ecosystem services in the Moroccan High Atlas

Ugo D'Ambrosio

Global Diversity Foundation, United Kingdom

Research shows that the incorporation of local communities in participatory conservation actions in various regions of the world is more effective than previously promoted conservation models, with an increase of informative case studies being produced by scholars from multiple academic disciplines working with different populations and contexts. Nonetheless, such socioecological approaches in conservation are rather pioneering in North African contexts and specifically in Morocco, where top-down models of landscape management and planning have been prevalent until recent decades, yet with a new openness to community-based action and other innovative methodologies of co-management in current years.

Using an ethnographic approach and the adaptive co-designing of the research methods with community members from Ait M’hamed (Azilal), Imegdale (Al Haouz) and multiple regional experts, in this presentation we share how we use ethnobiological theory and practice as tools in the High Atlas Cultural Landscapes Programme lead by the Global Diversity Foundation in order to document native ethnoecosystems, analyze change dynamics from a local’s perspective, as well as to be applied to minimize conflict over land use while supporting and strengthening the myriad ecosystem services provided by these landscapes and their resources to High Atlas communities. In addition, we will present and contest some relevant challenges faced during research and its application which hinder biocultural modeling and its practice in the field, chiefly the still prevalent divides between positivist and interpretivist approaches, qualitative and quantitative methodologies, as well as between theory and praxis in conservation.

In conclusion, exploring further participatory ethnobiological research and action and their relationship to conservation and development of biocultural diversity will hopefully improve our understanding of the landscapes of the High Atlas and other regions of Morocco while taking into consideration the central role that local communities have in defining, shaping and transforming land and resource use.



ID: 436 / 251N: 5
251N Exploring land change dynamics across the Mediterranean for meeting the needs and value the priorities of people
Keywords: Mediterranean region, food sufficiency scenarios, drivers of food production, climate change

Food production scenarios for the Mediterranean to highlight relationships between agricultural production, climate change and food sufficiency

Dominique Ami1, Leonith Hinojosa1,2, Claude Napoléone2

1AMSE, France; 2INRA, France

In the Mediterranean region, the relationship between agricultural land use dynamics and food security has become increasingly complex. Agricultural land has been oriented mainly to global markets at the expense of local provision, inducing large-scale monoculture (Temme and Verburg, 2011)[i]. On the other hand, complex land use patterns have influenced the region’s landscape patterns (Pinto-Correia and Vos, 2004)[ii].

Our paper present results of the LaSer-Med research project, focusing on main factors that influence the potential of Mediterranean agriculture to contribute to food sufficiency and the formulation of socio-economic scenarios towards a more secure food provision in the context of global changes. By means of spatial econometric models, we estimate the relationship between the production of food and a set of socio-economic, land use/land management, climatic and bio-physical variables at the sub-national level of NUTS2 in EU countries and the equivalent scale in the rest of the Mediterranean (331 sub-national areas of 24 countries). Based on the identification of main drivers of food production, we draw scenarios of change in some of these drivers to foresee the expected impacts on food production and food sufficiency.

Our results suggest that the significant factors for food production, taking into consideration spatial dependence effects, are population, the land use share of forest and grasslands, irrigation, the food price level, altitude and climate. Given these factors, the scenarios to ensure food sufficiency in the 2050 horizon requires strong policy attention to the spatial configuration of food production in the region, which would heavily be impacted by climate change and food trade. A more local scale focus could induce changes in land use decisions that would better respond to the demographic, environmental and climate change pressures.

[i] Temme, a.J.a.M., Verburg, P.H., 2011. Mapping and modelling of changes in agricultural intensity in Europe. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 140, 46–56.

[ii] Pinto-Correia, T., Vos, W., 2004. Multifunctionality in Mediterranean landscapes – past and future. In: Jongman, R.H.G. (Ed.), The New Dimensions of European Landscapes. Wageningen UR Frontis Series. Springer, pp. 135–164.

 
1:15pm - 2:45pm252N: Measuring diverse impacts of agriculture and conservation interventions in tropical forest landscapes: bringing human wellbeing into focus
Session Chair: Julie Gwendolin Zaehringer
Session Chair: Rachel Ann Carmenta
Session Chair: Judith Schleicher
MB-220 
 
ID: 253 / 252N: 1
252N Measuring diverse impacts of agriculture and conservation interventions in tropical forest landscapes: bringing human wellbeing into focus (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Connection with nature and values shape pro-conservation attitudes towards nature among Amazonian farmers

Katarzyna Mikolajczak1, Jos Barlow1, Alexander Lees2, Luke Parry1

1Lancaster University, United Kingdom; 2Manchester Metropolitan University, United Kingdom

Rooted in the conventional wisdom that the poor don’t care for nature beyond its utilitarian value, conservation has traditionally relied primarily on the ‘carrot and stick’ approaches of legal restrictions and economic incentives to motivate protection of nature. We tested the relationship between Connection With Nature (CWN) – the sense of belonging and emotional attachment to nature – and conservation attitudes of non-indigenous farmers in South-eastern Brazilian Amazon. Contradicting market-based assumptions, pro-conservation views were widespread and shaped primarily by affective CWN and individual values, indicating that intrinsic motivations may be an important driver of concern for nature in the rural tropics.



ID: 315 / 252N: 2
252N Measuring diverse impacts of agriculture and conservation interventions in tropical forest landscapes: bringing human wellbeing into focus (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Land use and human well-being changes in the context of conservation and cash crop booms: case studies from Madagascar

Jorge C. Llopis1,2

1Centre for Development and Environment, Switzerland; 2Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland

This presentation will provide insights from three protected areas in Madagascar with different degrees of success in halting deforestation while sustaining human well-being. These examples will trigger discussion about how land use and well-being dynamics might interact in the forest-agriculture interface in the Global South. Key inputs to the session will include insights on the unexpected effects that protected areas implementation might have on on-going deforestation dynamics, on the problematic role played by cash crop booms in the forest frontier, and on the neglected impact of extreme weather events on the well-being of populations which in turn drive landscape change.



ID: 382 / 252N: 3
252N Measuring diverse impacts of agriculture and conservation interventions in tropical forest landscapes: bringing human wellbeing into focus (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Social-ecological outcomes of agricultural intensification

Laura Vang Rasmussen

University of British Columbia, Canada

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is seen by many in science and policy as a flagship strategy to simultaneously feed humanity and use ecosystems sustainably. However, the conditions that support positive social-ecological outcomes remain poorly documented. We address this knowledge gap by synthesizing research that analyses how agricultural intensification influences both ecosystem services and human well-being in low- and middle-income countries. Our results show that agricultural intensification is rarely found to lead to simultaneous positive ecosystem service and well-being outcomes. This is particularly the case when ecosystem services other than food provisioning are taken into consideration.



ID: 289 / 252N: 4
252N Measuring diverse impacts of agriculture and conservation interventions in tropical forest landscapes: bringing human wellbeing into focus (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

What types of integrated landscape initiatives improve food production, conserve forests and improve livelihoods?: an empirical analysis from Latin America

Rachel Ann Carmenta

University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

Tropical forests are a site of dramatic land use change, primarily driven by agricultural expansion. Competing demands for land in forest frontiers must be reconciled to achieve equitable and sustainable futures. Identifying the strategies that will deliver to the multiple imperatives of food production, forest conservation and improved livelihoods is a contemporary sustainability challenge. Integrated landscape initiatives (ILIs) are a plausible strategy for achieving desired outcomes across multiple sectors, yet are diverse and involve bundles of actions. We identify a typology of ILIs, assess their agricultural, conservation and livelihood outcomes, and identify factors associated with their performance.



ID: 553 / 252N: 5
252N Measuring diverse impacts of agriculture and conservation interventions in tropical forest landscapes: bringing human wellbeing into focus (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Who measures and what counts: thinking about capturing human wellbeing across scales

Judith Schleicher1, Rachel Carmenta1, Julie Zaehringer1,2

1Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; 2Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Switzerland

The importance of measuring the diverse impacts of agricultural and conservation interventions has repeatedly been highlighted. While there have been numerous calls for increasing the use of impact evaluation, less attention has been paid to what outcome measures are put forward. This is despite the fact that such measures are decisive regarding what interventions are considered successes or failures. This talk will focus on key development and conservation paradigms, highlighting the narrow scope of current outcome measures and the voices that are being included. In particular, we show that there is little focus on capturing environment-wellbeing relationships holistically across scales.

 
1:15pm - 2:45pm257N: Round table: Spatial justice: state, positions and future challenges
Session Chair: Thomas Weith
UniS-A -122 
1:15pm - 2:45pm353N: Towards transformative interventions in unsustainable land systems - a science-practice-policy perspective
Session Chair: Cecilie Friis
UniS-A 022 
 
ID: 779 / 353N: 1
353N Towards transformative interventions in unsustainable land systems - a science-practice-policy perspective (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)
Keywords: sustainable development, 2030 agenda

Research for sustainable development: Towards engaged and transformative science

Andreas Heinimann

University of Bern, Switzerland

The 2030 agenda offers a great opportunity by setting a widely agreed upon normative goals for the future. Any development pathways entails trade-offs, or positively stated co-benefits between sustainability dimensions or more concretely SGD targets. Which in turn potentially offers a huge potential for science to provide the knowledge needed to navigate or negotiate these tradeoffs. For science to be able to materialize this potential and the respective relevance of the knowledge produced it needs to embark to new frontiers, constantly engaging with a wide range of actors and orienting its research agendas and products towards concrete sustainability outcomes in specific contexts.



ID: 268 / 353N: 2
353N Towards transformative interventions in unsustainable land systems - a science-practice-policy perspective (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)
Keywords: system games, facilitation, stakeholder engagement, collective agreement, cooperation

Seeing systems and sensing new trajectories through system games and mindful facilitation

Malika Virah Sawmy

Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Germany

Unsustainable or sustainable land-use is the sum total of individual behaviours taken by stakeholders and interactions of these with bio-physical processes (resources). These interactions determine the system’s trajectory. Participatory system approaches with skilled facilitation can help build a picture of such interactions and hence support stakeholders with a collective representation of a system. Evidence is emerging that such a collective agreement on a system can vastly improve communication among stakeholders allowing them to explore the intent behind those behaviours, including the norms, expectations and aspirations shaping the behaviours. From this, new ways to cooperate can emerge to change the system’s trajectory.



ID: 909 / 353N: 3
353N Towards transformative interventions in unsustainable land systems - a science-practice-policy perspective (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)
Keywords: innovation, finances, investmets, sustainble business

Leveraging innovative financing and investments towards sustainability

Ernst A. Brugger

Co-Founder and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of BlueOrchard, Switzerland.

BlueOrchard is one of the world’s leading impact investors that work on consulting a wide variety of business around the globe on the subject of promoting small, sustainable business. In relation to this, this contribution will focus on how to create a “telecoupled” path for transformation by facilitating the creation and growth of innovative new businesses and business models, in particular by leveraging innovative financing and investment; what are strategies for identifying and nurturing micro-entrepreneurs in emerging economies; and how can financial inclusion, reliable property rights and access to knowhow lead to a more sustainable world.



ID: 908 / 353N: 4
353N Towards transformative interventions in unsustainable land systems - a science-practice-policy perspective (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)
Keywords: transformation, interventions, supply chains, commodity

Supporting transformative interventions through supply chain engagement:

Boris Saraber

Boris Saraber, Director of Operations for the Earthworm Foundation (previously, The Forest Trust), Switzerland

The Earthworm Foundation is a non-profit organisation driven by the desire to positively impact the relationship between people and nature, using commodity supply chains as a key entry point. One of the important aspects of this work is how to support transformative interventions in unsustainable land systems, including: How to convince key actors – from brand leaders to the more localised producers – that a commitment to “No Deforestation” and “No Exploitation” is essential both to their own values as individuals and to the sustainability of their businesses.

 
1:15pm - 2:45pm360N: Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward
Session Chair: Zhanli Sun
Session Chair: Daniel Müller
Session Chair: Birgit Müller
Session Chair: Martha Marijke Bakker
Session Chair: Dawn Cassandra Parker
MB-201 
 
ID: 713 / 360N: 1
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Modelling social-ecological systems for providing management and policy recommendations – a system of systems approach

Christine Fürst1, Martin Schultze1, Benjamin Kofi Nyarko2, Mahamadou Belem3, Cédric Gaucherel4

1MLU Halle Wittenberg, Germany; 2Cape Coast University; 3Université Nazi Boni; 4CIRAD, AMAP laboratory, INRA

A challenge in using SES-models is to provide approaches that incorporate various scales of intervention and enable the use of scenarios to assess decision impacts. As land systems are too complex to reflect all their interactions within one “world-model”, approaches that use model compounds are requested. The project SESASA intends to build a system of systems by bundling a couple of models. These comprise spatially explicit, actor explicit and highly theoretical systemic approaches using Cellular Automata, Boolean and Bayesian Belief Networks and Agent-Based Models in combination with qualitative and quantitative MCA-approaches to address the range of systemic responses within SES.



ID: 435 / 360N: 2
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Receiving feedback from the environment

Martha Marijke Bakker, Maaike Happel, Diana Giebels

Wageningen University, Netherlands, The

Feedbacks from ecological to social systems are often weaker and more complex than we think. This is because (i) ecological effects on individual decision makers are often small and unclear; (ii) people are reluctant to change their opinion; and (iii) opinions are shaped by a societal process that far exceeds the level of a few individuals. This is challenging for simulating SES using ABMs, as it involves dynamics at scale levels that most ABMs cannot handle. Moreover, it is not very rewarding for the scientist to go through a lot of trouble, only to weaken the feedbacks that constitute our conceptual SES.



ID: 696 / 360N: 3
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

The state of the art of agent-based land market models

Dawn Cassandra Parker

University of Waterloo, Canada

This flash talk will review the state-of-the art around agent-based land market models (ABM-LM). It will briefly review the importance of land markets in shaping land-use change both locally and globally, in both rural and urban contexts. It will then discuss a recently developed agent-based land market meta-modelling framework, which nests six state-of-the-art ABM-LMMs. Finally, barriers to broader adoption of ABM-LMMs are discussed, as well as proposals of ways forward.



ID: 627 / 360N: 4
360N Modelling human-environment interactions in land systems: Current status, challenges and ways forward (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Ways forward to integrate human decisions in land system models

Birgit Müller

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

The adequate incorporation of human decisions is seen as a major challenge for land systems modelling. In my flash talk I point out ways forward by calling for coordinated efforts of the science community. Here, I am inspired by insights from different endeavours: (i) using agent-based models to apply and test social theories on land use decision making and its contribution to theory building, (ii) exploring the use of building blocks for decision modules, and (iii) learning from environmental models about the upscaling of socio-environmental models that include the human decision part more explicitly.

 
1:15pm - 2:45pm361N: Policy and governance of illicit and/or clandestine transactions and land-use changes
Session Chair: Elizabeth Tellman
Session Chair: Nicholas Magliocca
MB-120 
 
ID: 718 / 361N: 1
361N Policy and governance of illicit and/or clandestine transactions and land-use changes (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

Indonesia for Sale

Tom Johnson

The Gecko Project, United Kingdom

The Gecko Project is an investigative journalism initiative established to shine a light on the corruption driving land grabs and the destruction of tropical rainforests. It seeks to create and maintain a sense of urgency over the role of large land deals, predominantly for food production, in some of the most pressing global challenges: climate change, the collapse of biodiversity, food security, and the rights of indigenous peoples and other rural communities. We aim to achieve this through the production and promotion of in-depth, high-quality and accessible journalism. The Gecko Project was established by Earthsight- www.earthsight.org.uk



ID: 683 / 361N: 2
361N Policy and governance of illicit and/or clandestine transactions and land-use changes (INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY)

The use of shadow companies to circumvent market demands for palm oil sustainability

Tim Steinweg

Aidenvironment, Chain Reaction Research

In 2013, large palm oil traders and refiners adopted No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation (NDPE) policies. Oil palm plantation companies that supply these traders/refiners are expected to act in line with these policies, and non-compliance can result in suspension and exclusion. As of 2017, 74 percent of Indonesian and Malaysian refining capacity is covered by such policies. Several plantation companies responded to these market demands by restructuring their business, and placing controversial assets in related entities or hiding their beneficial ownership. This allows them to service market segmenets that demand sustainability, while holding on to controversial but valuable assets.



Full talk
ID: 760 / 361N: 3
111R Clandestine and illicit economies as drivers of land system dynamics
Keywords: corruption, illicit flows, elites, urban land, Sustainable Development Goals

An analysis of land corruption and illicit flows

Farai Mutondoro

Transparency International Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe

While there is some global recognition that the land sector is susceptible to corruption, the relationship between land corruption and illicit flows remains a topic least explored. This is however despite some of the early warning signs such as numerous examples from the Panama and Paradise Papers on the extent to which the “politically exposed person” and power business elites with interest in large-scale agri-business, mining and real-estate business are linked implicated in a number of land and property scandals. The accelerated demand for land all over the world and rising land value heightens the risk of corruption and illicit flows. A 2009 UN Habitat study noted 77% of survey respondents in African cities and 61% in Asian cities believe public office holders benefit most from urban reforms due to corruption (UN Habitat 2009). Land and property value aremain driver of rising inequality (Alvaredo et al. 2017, Stiglitz 2015, Rognlie 2014). Far from being a problem in the developing world, corruption and clandestine transactions in the land sector are a global phenomenon. The Panama paper revealed that 2,800Mossack Fonseca companies appear on a U.Kland registry list of overseas property owners dating from 2014. In London, 36,000 plots (5,7km2) are owned by shell companies. Between 2008 and 2014, roughly 30% of condos in big Manhattan developments were sold either to foreign investors, often shell companies or Limited Liability Companies. Sustainable Developmental Goal 16 provides a framework to address issues of corruption. Through this paper we seek to provide some answers as well as leverage dialogue on such questions as i) what kind of illicit economic links to land require more research? Ii) what policies are needed to ensure data on these transactions could be made more available? and iii) What are possible or existing governance structures (formal and informal) that could be leveraged or need to be built. The response to these questions is informed by Transparency International ‘s Land and Corruption in Africa Programme which has been implemented for the past 4 years in Kenya, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Ghana, Uganda, South Africa, Cameroon, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

 
1:15pm - 2:45pm365N: Governing primary forest protection: An integrated community-based approach to managing landscapes for conservation, climate change and sustainable livelihoods
Session Chair: Edward Alexander Morgan
Session Chair: Timothy Mark Cadman
Session Chair: Stanley Wapot
UniS-A 003 
1:15pm - 2:45pm366N: Essential land-use variables world café
Session Chair: Carsten Meyer
Session Chair: Steffen Fritz
UniS-A -126 
1:15pm - 2:45pm367N: Seeking solutions to land challenges of the Anthropocene: Land Systems Science at the Interface of Normative and Policy Concerns
Session Chair: Rinku Roy Chowdhury
Session Chair: Darla Karin Munroe
Session Chair: Ariane de Bremond
MB-114 
2:45pm - 3:00pmBreak
 
3:00pm - 4:15pm104RB: Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries - Part B
Session Chair: Benjamin Stuch
Session Chair: Holger Hoff
Session Chair: Patrick Hostert
UniS-A 003 
 
Full talk
ID: 822 / 104RB: 1
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: water, tele-connections, SDG, sustainability, Africa

Who changes the rain? Linking the social-ecological dynamics of land-use change, atmospheric water recycling, and pastoralist behavior

Patrick W Keys

Colorado State University, United States of America

Achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is targeted for the year 2030, some 12 years from now. Among the SDGs, the most fundamental goals for overall success are the goals related to water, and this success will ultimately depend on how humanity manages their land and water. Recent findings show the significant impact that human land-use change can have on moisture recycling - the process of water evaporating from land, traveling through the atmosphere, then falling back to Earth as precipitation. This insight, combined with advances in understanding behavioral drivers of land-use change in East African pastoralist systems, offers a unique opportunity to examine how human behavior, land-use, and moisture recycling may couple to enable (or hinder) SDG achievement. Notably, in East Africa’s forests and woody savannas, forest management often overlaps directly with rangeland management, and when considering ecological conservation, it is equally important to consider the societies that dwell in these landscapes.

We develop an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the complex interplay of water across scales. Scenarios of SDG#15 achievement for East African countries are simulated in a land-use model (G-Range), and the coincident changes in evaporation (and subsequently the atmospheric water cycle) are simulated via a moisture tracking model (WAM-2layers). These changes to the atmospheric water cycle further drive changes in downwind rangeland systems and drive subsequent human decision-making (using a modified agent-based model, DECUMA) that depend on those rangelands.

The output is a first-of-its-kind coupled-modeling system linking national land-use policy to eventual community adaptations via regional-scale moisture recycling, revealing nested, multi-level issues related to land-use and atmospheric tele-connections. We will present preliminary results from our model coupling, share insights into engagement and co-development of research goals with East African stakeholders, and conclude with a discussion of lessons-learned (so far) regarding engagement with the broader SDG agenda.



Full talk
ID: 626 / 104RB: 2
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: planetary boundaries, land system change, sensitivity, remote sensing

Quantifying a planetary land systems boundary

Patrick Hostert1, Matthias Baumann1, Dieter Gerten1,2, Tobias Kuemmerle1, Sebastian van der Linden1, Wolfgang Lucht1,2, Philippe Rufin1

1Humboldt University Berlin, Germany; 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The current planetary boundary for land system change is defined as the (biome-specific) area of forest loss that, if exceeded, may represent a risk for Earth system destabilization. This provisional “aggregate” boundary definition lacks linkages to boundaries/thresholds that are likely to exist at regional scale and that may already be operational.

We accordingly focus on sensitivity analyses related to different aspects of land systems boundary quantifications:

a) The baseline definition of “original” forest is a critical step. Depending on different assumptions concerning the pre-industrial state of the global land system, we show how margins towards critical thresholds vary. This may critically affect the option space related to a boundary for land system change.

b) Data-related sensitivity should be taken into account and a better understanding of different uncertainties related to datasets and methods is imperative. We show how different e.g. remote sensing based datasets influence the outcome of calculations for a boundary related to land system change.

c) Control variable sensitivity (currently forest cover loss per forest biome) is similarly critical. Multiple control variables may be needed to embrace the complexity of land systems. We show examples on how to move from forest loss (areal land cover change) as single control variable to rather holistic quantifications including proxies for land use intensity and land management.

Beyond quantification, we believe that land systems boundaries shall be met at eco-regional or even national scales. Aggregation may therefore only be feasible in a nested approach, not allowing “trading in” improvements in one region against deteriorating conditions elsewhere. We argue that finer-scale measures from different world regions may be needed, including for example savannah woodlands.

The proposed sensitivity analyses refer to knowledge gaps that we also need to address in the light of transdisciplinary approaches. Implications for e.g. food security, public health, or improving local livelihoods, among others, will be of utmost importance, If we wish to relate a planetary boundary on land system change to a social-ecological systems perspective.



Full talk
ID: 715 / 104RB: 3
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: Land-system boundary, downscale planetary boundary, country level analysis, global trade, consumption impacts

National land-use performance based on downscaled planetary boundaries

Mohammad Abdullah Shaikh, Michalis Hadjikakou, Brett Bryan

Deakin University, Australia

Population and economic growth have placed enormous pressure on Earth’s natural resources. Land resources have been exploited by agricultural intensification, deforestation, and urbanisation. Increasing international trade of food, fibre, timber, bio-fuels and other products have put immense pressure on land-systems. We downscaled the land-system planetary boundary (PB) and allocated a safe operating space for every country. We accounted for a fair and rational distribution of the global boundary by considering socio-economic and environmental factors and assigned limits to countries based on population, fair economic equity and available land resources. We assessed country level direct and virtual (indirect) impacts on the land-system change PB resulting from global consumption of goods and services traded across international supply chains. We analysed country level impacts on agricultural land and forests against their allocated safe operating space for land-system change and calculated their PB exceedances, accounting also for uncertainty in the current definition of the land-system change PB. We used a global multi-regional input-output analysis to identify the amount of direct and indirect (trade-adjusted) impacts of countries and quantify the interdependencies between countries with regard to land resources. We also analysed how countries performance can vary, based on different downscaling techniques and underlying PB uncertainty. Our results show land-use PB transgressions at a country level over time and highlight countries which are using more land resources than their allocated share within safe global limits. This work provides insights into the pressures on global land resources by quantifying total land-system change impacts associated with final consumption of goods and services.



Full talk
ID: 536 / 104RB: 4
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: impact assessment, trade, deforestation, soybean, LCA

Unlocking product-level life cycle assessments for SDG12 with high-resolution land use and trade information

Michael Lathuillière1, Javier Godar1, Pernilla Lofgren1, Ben Ayre2, Toby Gardner1, Clément Suavet3

1Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden; 2Global Canopy, UK; 3Stockholm Environment Institute, USA

Meeting Sustainable Development Goal 12 (SDG12) to “ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns” requires analytical tools to connect production and consumption centres at scales that are relevant for decision-makers. From a product perspective, life cycle thinking can be used to map a product’s life cycle from resource use to disposal (so-called “cradle to grave”) as the basis for a life cycle assessment (LCA). LCAs guide decisions that can reduce impacts of production and consumption through an environmental impact assessment of the different stages of a product’s life cycle. Since 2013, these assessments can include land use and land use change in a framework established to quantify impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Current applications, however, often suffer from the lack of high-resolution land use information. In this study, we show how spatially-explicit mapping of supply chains based on high resolution trade and production data (see Trase, trase.earth) can provide information on land use and land use change for applications in LCAs. We produce multitemporal analysis of deforestation using a high-resolution depiction of the Brazilian soybean supply chain, revealing not only the importance of a country’s “supply mix” for accurately assessing environmental impacts embedded in consumption, but also the role of traders in meeting global demand. Our results provide additional tools for addressing SDG12 from a product perspective by considering both traders and consumer countries, while enabling more accurate LCAs for European Product Environmental Footprint and Organisation Environmental Footprint guidelines.



Flash talk
ID: 565 / 104RB: 5
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: Water Harvesting, Food Security, Out-Scaling, Case Studies, Suitability Analysis

Mapping the potential of water harvesting to increase food security at global scale

Luigi Piemontese1, Giulio Castelli2, Ingo Fetzer1, Nicole Harai3, Hanspeter Liniger3, Jennie Barron4, Elena Bresci2, Fernando Jaramillo1,5

1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; 2Department of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Systems (GESAAF), University of Florence, Italy; 3Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland; 4Department of Soil and Environment, SLU, Sweden; 5Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Sweden

Agriculture has a dominant role in achieving the Sustainable Development goals, whit the double challenge of increasing food security while preserving biodiversity and natural ecosystems. Water harvesting (WH) is a well-known practice that can provide supplemental irrigation, increasing water productivity thus contributing to sustainable intensification of agriculture. Some studies have shown the potential of WH to close the yield gap, thus potentially reduce food insecurity at local and global scale. However, these top down studies tend to overestimate the benefits of WH because they mostly neglect the effect of socio-economic and cultural barriers in the success of the adoption of such practice. Local case studies provide a more contextual and realistic picture of the actual benefit of WH and learning from case studies would provide a more accurate estimation of the potential increase in food security through sustainable water management practices. Using a bottom-up approach we out-scale the benefit observed in 240 local case studies on different water harvesting techniques across a wide range of agro-climatic and socio-economic regions globally.We first identify suitable areas of water harvesting using the combination of environmental information (precipitation amount and seasonality, aridity and slope) and socio-economic parameters (access to market and financial services, farm size and labor capacity) relevant for the successful implementation of WH. Finally, we use the qualitative survey data (interviews of farmers) of the case study to attribute the potential increase in food security based on the suitability analysis, the water-limited yield gap and current global food insecurity patterns.

This study can serve as a baseline to understand and further explore the potential of water harvesting as a sustainable driver of agricultural improvement at global scale. We also consider this work a first necessary step to trigger future modelling studies and build scenarios of sustainable intensification of agriculture within the planetary safe operating space.



Flash talk
ID: 834 / 104RB: 6
104R Roads to sustainability: Land use within sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries
Keywords: Urbanisation, SDG 11, SDG 15, path dependency

Perspectives on land explicit metrics for SDG indicators, the case of SDG 15 and SDG 11

Michele Melchiorri1, Christina Corban2, Aneta J. Florczyk2, Martino Pesaresi2, Ehlrich Daniele2

1Piksel S.r.l, Italy; 2European Commission DG Joint Research Centre Disaster Risk Management Unit

Land degradation due to anthropogenic pressures affects sizable parts of the planet Earth landmass. The monitoring of this phenomenon has entered in the 2030 Development Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

Earth Observations provide valuable information to quantify the extent of degraded land, especially the one transformed into sealed surfaces. The extraction of human settlements and urban extent from remote sensing is a field of research capable to support the SDG monitoring with key information to lift several SDGs from Tier II to Tier I classification, implying the supply of data to operationalize internationally agreed methodologies.

In this contribution, we focus on the interplay between SDG 15.3.1 (Proportion of land that is degraded over total land area) and SDG 11.3.1 (Ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate).

We principally highlight that despite SDG 11.3.1 relates the expansion of built-up areas to demographic changes, the dimensionless values it outputs neglect considerable spatially explicit implications. In particular, while the SDG framework on the one-hand reaffirms the key role of land degradation (throughout SDG 15) SDG 11 is unable to make the nexus between demographic change and land consumption explicit (by mathematical formulation). Empirical results of this study carried with the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) open and free data to quantify the global extent of urban centers and their population in 2000 and 2015 demonstrate that the marginal land consumption per new inhabitant is considerably diverse across settlements that develop with comparable Land Use Efficiency values.

This research is innovative for the use if the “built-up areas” semantic derived from remote sensing, to establish a land based nexus between the two SDGs and for the implications of the findings suggesting a differentiated treatment of the same natural resource across SDGs.



Flash talk
ID: 808 / 104RB: 7
110R Multi-objective optimization approaches to support visioning and decision-making in land-use system science
Keywords: system perspective, integration amongst sectors, carbon neutrality, societal transformation

An application of the S-loop model to identify potential pathways towards sustainability in Irish land use

Tamara Hochstrasser

University College Dublin, Ireland

Depending on the approach to land use and management, land use offers opportunities for the conservation and restoration of natural capital and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In Ireland, over 30% of the national greenhouse gas emissions are from agriculture. These emissions need to be drastically reduced and it is envisaged that carbon neutrality will be reached by mid-century amongst all land use activities. However, this required land use and management change must be seen in the context of other demands placed on land use. In this project the S-loop model, which is a learning model for sustainability, was used. This model guides the integration of current knowledge on sustainability goals across sectors, the activities, which must change and the system within which the change has to occur. Using expert interviews, a complete description of factors influencing Irish land use was attempted as well as information on activities gathered. I will present this overview over the factors that affect land use in Ireland currently. The interviews revealed that there are two ways of framing the factors amongst experts: one of them is the ‘landscape perspective’, i.e. the perception of a spatial juxtaposition or overlap of different interests in terms of their claims to using land, the second one is the ‘agricultural value chain’ perspective, where it is essential that the different sectors develop in a coordinated manner. For the ongoing dialogue on how to best transform Irish land use towards sustainability, which includes the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it is important to recognize these different perspectives and assure that critical factors as identified in this project are not left out from any proposed solutions. Furthermore, the S-loop model was used to identify knowledge gaps and to produce research recommendations for the Environmental Protection Agency’s research programme.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm113R: The role of biodiversity in the relationship between people and land + Land systems for conservation science - Part B
Session Chair: Markus Fischer
Session Chair: Davnah Payne
Session Chair: Tobias Kuemmerle
Session Chair: Yann le Polain de Waroux
MB-201 
 
Full talk
ID: 446 / 113R: 2
113R The role of biodiversity in the relationship between people and land
Keywords: Biodiversity, Nature's Contributions to People, Drivers of Biodiversity Change, Governance

Insights of the IPBES regional assessment on biodiversity and ecosystem services for Europe and Central Asia

Markus Fischer

University of Bern, Switzerland

The presenting author represents and acknowledges the IPBES expert group elaborating the Europe and Central Asia assessment. Based on requests of IPBES member governments this assessment was elaborated by a team of more than 120 authors from 2015 to 2018. It shows, based on about 4000 sources, that nature provides broader contributions to people than acknowledged earlier. Further it shows that, while food production and energy biomass have increased, most other contributions decreased over recent decades. While high biodiversity would be required to provide multiple contributions of nature to people, the biodiversity of marine, inland surface water and terrestrial habitats and taxa also declined largely. Most of these trends were due to land and water use, and climate change, while pollution and invasive species also played important roles. The assessment report further shows that most scenario studies of future development suggest further declines in biodiversity and nature's contributions to people and they suggest that climate change will become an even more important driver of change. These scenario studies also suggest that the contributions of the Europe and Central Asia region to the Aichi Targets and to the Sustainable Development Goals relevant for the scope of the assessment are unlikely to be met. The assessment concludes by providing information on potential pathways and opportunities for decision makers toward a sustainable future. These opportunities include mainstreaming biodiversity, integration among sectors, and participation of multiple actors in governance.



Full talk
ID: 604 / 113R: 3
113R The role of biodiversity in the relationship between people and land
Keywords: biodiversity, land use, ecosystem function, ecosystem services, forest, grassland

The Biodiversity Exploratories: Linking land management and biodiversity change to ecosystem processes and services

Peter Manning1, Markus Fischer1,2, The Biodiversity Exploratories Consortium1

1Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; 2University of Bern

Land use intensification is a major driver of global environmental change. By affecting the biodiversity of organisms that regulate ecosystem function the supply of ecosystem services is also affected. Such relationships are complex but must be understood if we are to effectively conserve biodiversity and promote landscape multifunctionality. However, only through the analysis of large and integrated datasets can we address these questions in a general and comprehensive way.

The Biodiversity Exploratories project started in 2006. At 150 temperate grassland and 150 forest sites, which span a range of land-use intensities, hundreds of researchers across 45 subprojects, have addressed the same guiding questions in a common study design (www.biodiversity-exploratories.de).

In grasslands, land-use intensification reduces the biodiversity of most taxa. Most of the accompanying changes in grassland ecosystem processes appear negative from an anthropogenic viewpoint, and the effect of grassland land use on many ecosystem processes is mediated by biodiversity loss and changes to the community composition of many taxa. In forests, various components of management affect forest structure, biodiversity and ecosystem processes, and many of the changes to ecosystem processes are mediated by changes in forest structure or biodiversity. Important conclusions are that land use - ecosystem process relations are strongly mediated by biodiversity loss and changes in community composition; that relationships between various facets of land use, biodiversity and ecosystem processes are constrained by trade-offs, and that these relationships appear less straightforward in forests than grasslands. Finally, our results show that the maintenance of high levels of diversity and ecosystem function at the landscape scape requires land to be managed under a range of intensities and uses.



Flash talk
ID: 531 / 113R: 4
113R The role of biodiversity in the relationship between people and land
Keywords: mountains, biodiversity, human wellbeing

The role of biodiversity in the relationship between people and land in mountains

Davnah Payne, Mark Snethlage, Eva M. Spehn, Markus Fischer

Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment, Switzerland

Mountain ecosystems are globally distributed environments that provide considerable societal benefits. However, mountains are increasingly exposed to changes in climate and land use, environmental pollution, large-scale political and socio-economic transformations, and unsustainable management of natural resources. In the face of the growing challenges brought about by human activities, effective policies and management approaches are needed to safeguard the natural assets that are underpinning human wellbeing in mountains and the essential capacity of mountain ecosystems and their biodiversity to support human populations along the elevational gradient from the highlands to the lowlands. The formulation and implementation of contextually relevant policies and approaches require a thorough understanding of how mountain biodiversity and ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing from local to global scale and how land use decisions made to accommodate growing populations in their need for vital space and resources determine the spatio-temporal trajectories of mountain biodiversity and ecosystems.

Here we report on a survey we performed to collect information on the link between biodiversity and human wellbeing in mountains worldwide, using the framework of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Questions pertained to (i) the status of and trends in mountain ecosystems, the ecosystem services they deliver, and the wellbeing of their populations; (ii) the status of and trends in the direct factors driving the observed changes in these key components; (iii) the contribution of biodiversity and ecosystem services to human wellbeing; and (iv) the governance of natural resources. Despite the numerous challenges associated with the 141 responses we received, the data reveal interesting links notably between biodiversity, ecosystem condition, and human wellbeing, and informative geographical patterns. We conclude with an outlook on how these data will inform further research on the role of mountain biodiversity in achieving sustainable natural resource management in evolving land systems.



Flash talk
ID: 347 / 113R: 5
113R The role of biodiversity in the relationship between people and land
Keywords: wetland restoration, vegetation, biodiversity values, bioindication

Quantifying effects of conservation measures on plant biodiversity over 43 years using repeated vegetation mapping

Weier Liu1, Sanderine Nonhebel1, Ab Grootjans1, Henk Everts2

1Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences, ESRIG, University of Groningen, The Netherlands; 2EGG Consult, Groningen, The Netherlands

Peatlands support rich biodiversity with unique values. However, this diversity is suffering severe losses due to intensive land uses including agriculture. Plant biodiversity strongly responds to land use changes and is a good indication for ecosystem health. The Drentsche Aa brook valley in the northeast of the Netherlands was intensively used for agriculture. Since 1965, conservation measures, including termination of fertilization and raising groundwater levels, have been carried out in order to restore species-rich meadows and fens. The results have been monitored through repeated vegetation mapping of c. 2000 ha study area. The maps have shown increased species richness with over 400 species recorded in 2015. The main question of the present study is how to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the biodiversity conservation in the Drentsche Aa brook valley based on detailed vegetation maps. Three vegetation maps (1983, 1996 and 2016) were reclassified and analyzed with respect to changes in species composition, biodiversity values in terms of naturalness and rarity of plant community types, and associated indication for environmental conditions based on literature data and expert knowledge. Spatial and temporal shifts from the reclassified maps were quantified through transformation analysis. The changes were evaluated in relation to financial investments to reveal the effectiveness of the conservation. Reclassification appeared to be an effective way to extract information from detailed vegetation maps for a spatially explicit evaluation that integrates biological, environmental and financial aspects of wetland restoration.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm201R: Desertification, land degradation and drought - challenges, risks and response
Session Chair: Chizoba Chinweze
UniS-A -122 
 
Full talk
ID: 516 / 201R: 1
201R Desertification, land degradation and drought – challenges, risks and response
Keywords: Enclosure, environmental microbiology, land degradation, rehabilitation; soil quality

Enhancing soil organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, and microbial biomass in semi-arid rangeland using pasture enclosures

Collins Ouma Oduor1, Nancy Karanja1, Richard Ndemo Onwonga1, David Pelster2,3, Gert Nyberg4

1Department of Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology, University of Nairobi, Kenya; 2Mazingira Centre, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya; 3Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Science and Technology Branch; 4Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)

Rehabilitation of degraded rangelands through the establishment of enclosures is believed to improve soil quality and peoples livelihoods and enhance the sustainability of rangelands. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of pasture enclosures on soil bulk density (BD) and total soil organic carbon (SOC) and its labile fractions (particulate organic carbon (POC) and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN)) as key indicators of soil quality at 0-10, 10-20 and 20-40 cm soil depths. Two typical enclosure systems in West Pokot County, Kenya were identified; Grazing dominated enclosure (GDE) and contractual grazing enclosure (CGE). Livestock management in both systems was via the free-range system. The two enclosure systems were selected based on three age classes (3-10, 11-20 and >20 years since establishment) (n =3). The adjacent open grazing area (OGR) was used as a reference (n = 9). Relative to OGR, the pasture enclosures significantly decreased soil BD and increased the concentrations of total SOC, POC, MBC and MBN (p<0.001). Considerably higher concentrations of POC and MBC were recorded in GDE than CGE (P = 0.01) with POC accounting for 24.5 – 29.5% of the total SOC. The proportional increase in POC and MBC was higher in GDE (55.6% and 30.5% respectively) compared to CGE (39.2 and 13.9% respectively), indicating that GDE was more effective in restoring soil quality. The MBC was positively correlated with total SOC and POC in the three soil depths (p<0.001). This study demonstrated that controlling livestock grazing through the establishment of pasture enclosures is the key strategy to increase SOC and its labile fractions in degraded rangelands; a precondition for mitigating against the changing climate. Future research should focus on the carrying capacity of the enclosures and landscape dynamics of carbon to better understand the ecology of this fragile ecosystem.



Full talk
ID: 431 / 201R: 2
201R Desertification, land degradation and drought – challenges, risks and response
Keywords: drought response, food sector, insurance, climate index-reference area, Sri Lanka

Land area heterogeneity and drought response through climate-indexed insurance in agriculture: Evidence from a choice experiment

DV Pahan Prasada

University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

Recent droughts (2016-2017) led to a nearly 25% reduction in harvest and nearly 30% reduction in area-cultivated in Sri Lanka. Droughts create deep impacts of food security and reinforce the need to find a solution to climate change impacts on small-holder agriculture. Precipitation-indexed insurance is offered as a solution to drought impact in agriculture. However, in most implementations, the area coverage of the reference area for the index calculation is not always clear. This varies from small village units (based on geographical isolation/historical precedence), through Divisions (which encompass several villages) to Districts (administrative units for planning). Insurers choose the reference area size based on a number of reasons including the cost effectiveness in installing precipitation gauges. We look at the preferences for the different reference area sizes for indexing precipitation in adoption of indexed insurance via a choice experiment.

In the discrete choice methodology, the ‘marginal willingness-to-pay’ for potential attributes (including the reference area for index calculation) of weather-indexed insurance were measured. We use ‘stated preference approach’ to evaluate farmer preferences by offering farmers different binary choice scenarios constructed as a fractional factorial assignment of different levels of each attribute. The four attributes included are namely, the reference coverage area for weather index calculation (namely, village, divisional-secretary area, district), type of implementation (namely, government, bank , agribusiness company), the method of calculation of compensation (namely, fixed , cost of inputs, value of output/revenue) and the premium per one term (namely, 200LKR, 400LKR, 600LKR). A total of 2583 choice scenarios evaluated among 287 individuals were analysed using the conditional logistic and mixed logit estimation and marginal willingness to pay distributions were estimated for each attribute.

Smaller administrative division (in contrast to larger administrative boundaries) is preferred by respondents as reference area for weather-index calculation. Government (vis-à-vis the bank and the agribusiness company) is preferred as the management authority. The revenue-based compensation approach (vis-à-vis cost-based approach and fixed compensation) is statistical significantly preferred as the method of calculating compensation. The average negative marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP) for Division and District reference areas are -678 and -1,889 LKR (1USD=150LKR) respectively. This indicates a strong marginal willingness to pay for insurance indices referenced to small area units (i.e. village). This is in contrast to the consideration of District level for decision making on drought impacts and agricultural land use decisions in the current planning framework.



Full talk
ID: 319 / 201R: 3
201R Desertification, land degradation and drought – challenges, risks and response
Keywords: Land Degradation;Restoration Technology; Ecological Vulnerable Regions.

Effects of restoration technology on desertification in ecological vulnerable regions of China

Lin Zhen

Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences, China, People's Republic of

Ecological restoration has increased in prominence since the last century as an active way to reverse ecosystem deterioration derived from human interventions. The goal of this study was to classify the desertification regions in China, investigate the restoration technologies adopted in the region, and assess the impact of restoration approaches on ecological and economic conditions of the stakeholders. Indicators for the assessment are selected based on the SDGs, targets for ecological-civilization of China and the regions under concern. Data covers land use maps, MODIS images, statistics and stakeholders' questionnaire surveys. The results show that vegetation coverage changed over the past decades with spatial variations across different desertification lands, and the households who employed integrated approaches tended to get more benefits, higher capability of resisting risks, and higher income than those who did not. These findings imply that balanced ecological and economic development is possible when appropriate management approaches are adopted. However, evaluation and monitoring of land conditions are needed to readjust restoration policy and associated approaches in a timely manner.



Flash talk
ID: 832 / 201R: 4
201R Desertification, land degradation and drought – challenges, risks and response
Keywords: Degradation, Amazon, Trajectories, Emissions

Degradation trajectories in the Amazon and their contribution for greenhouse gases emissions

Talita Oliveira Assis1, Diego Melo2, Celso von Randow1, Ana Paula Aguiar3

1Brazilian National Institute for Space Research - INPE; 2FUNDEP; 3Stockholm Resilience Centre

Forest degradation is widespread around the world, due to multiple factors such as unsustainable logging, agriculture, invasive species, fire, fuelwood gathering, and livestock grazing. In the Brazilian Amazon, forest degradation is mostly associated to logging and fire, or a combination of both. In this work, we analyzed trajectories of forest degradation that started each year from 2006 to 2014 and assessed the emissions of greenhouse gases due the degradation in the Brazilian Amazon forest in that period, using the spatially-explicit INPE-EM carbon emission modeling framework. The trajectories analysis shows the importance of considering CO2 emissions from forest degradation, since 62% of the total area suffered only one degradation event in whole period and only 9% of the total area was converted into clear cut deforestation. Between 2006 and 2014, 4080 MtonCO2 were emitted by deforestation, while 744 MtonCO2, or 18% of the estimated value for deforestation, were emitted by degradation. Besides that, the CO2 an absorption of 247 MtnCO2 is estimated in the period from forest regeneration of those areas, considering historical values of degradation in the model. These results highlight the importance of monitoring forest degradation, estimating the emissions of greenhouse gases and understanding their impacts.



Flash talk
ID: 869 / 201R: 5
201R Desertification, land degradation and drought – challenges, risks and response
Keywords: land degradation, agriculture, satellite data, restoration, Latin America

Mapping and targeting efforts to restore degraded lands for agriculture in Latin America

Paul C West1, James S Gerber1, Andrea Santos Garcia1,2, Lindsey Sloat1, Deepak K Ray1, Peder Engstrom1, Samuel Stiffman1, Glenn Hyman3, Julia R Mangueira2,4, Ginya Truitt Nakata4, Mauricio Castro Schmitz4, Irene Farrow4

1University of Minneosota, United States of America; 2University of São Paulo, Brazil; 3International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Colombia; 4The Nature Conservancy

Restoring degraded lands is a critical pathway for improving food security and reducing agricultural expansion into natural habitat. There is a wide range of estimates of degraded lands, resulting from differences in methods, definitions, source data, original vegetation, and intent of how the product will be used. To focus limited resources more deliberately, governments, non-profits, development banks, and foundations need better maps for assessing degradation status and trends, and—critically—effectiveness of interventions. In this presentation, we summarize a project to map degraded agricultural lands across Latin America and how The Nature Conservancy and its partners can use these data to target restoration efforts. We mapped ten indicators of landscape condition, cropland productivity, and pasture productivity. Hotspots of each indicator within each biome were combined to identify places where there is a convergence of evidence of land degradation. The multi-metric, biome-specific analysis helps account for the inherent differences across biomes, such as expected bare soil on pastures in potential arid shrublands versus rainforest. We will also present our preliminary validation that uses crowd-sourced data from geo-referenced photographs, an online map-based expert survey, and field observations from other studies. Finally, we will present how the product is being improved as well as being used to guide action.



Flash talk
ID: 676 / 201R: 6
213R Land tenure (security) and land use (change)
Keywords: access, livelihoods, entitlements, pastoralism, Kenya

The relationship between access, livelihoods, governance, and land tenure in Ilkisongo Maasai pastoralist commons of southern Kenya

Ryan Robert Unks

University of Lyon 2, France

In the context of ongoing changes in livelihoods, authority, and governance, numerous collectively-titled Ilkisongo Maasai pastoralist group ranches in Kajiado County, Kenya have undergone subdivision. This presents a barrier to mobility for wildlife and herders alike that seek to access spatially and temporally variable key resources, but has increasingly been advocated as a solution to ongoing struggles over land. Drawing from developments in theory that expand understandings of the relationship of property and land use by including analysis of institutional, political-economic, social, and discursive relations to analyze benefit streams, we relate changes in access and ongoing struggles over land to current views of management and tenure in collectively titled rangelands. Wildlife conservation, agricultural expansion, and extractive industries have all interacted with group ranch governance, and are closely related to changing herding institutions that mediate access to resources. These shifts are intertwined with differential abilities to adapt to exclusion from state and privately held land, commodification of water and forage, and shifting authority. The ability to adapt depends upon novel sets of entitlements that are required to sustain livestock and agricultural production, leading to stratified abilities to adapt to multiple livelihood stressors due to changes in climate, livestock disease, livestock predation, farm pests, and market vulnerability. Adding to understandings of power dynamics in land control and conversations about adaptation, as well as understandings of the constraints to collective land management and tenure, I discuss shifts in land use and livelihoods in these group ranch wildlife conservation contexts as they relate to state policies, NGO interactions, resource extraction, and local governance processes. I show how the stratified structure of livelihoods and vulnerability relates to plural views of authority and property that underpin and shape collective land management, governance, and interventions to maintain open rangelands for wildlife conservation.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm217R: The role of farm size for food security, environmental sustainability, and social justice
Session Chair: Vincent Ricciardi
Session Chair: Christian Levers
Session Chair: Jordan Blake Graesser
Session Chair: Navin Ramankutty
MB-101 
 
Full talk
ID: 367 / 217R: 1
217R The role of farm and field size for food security, environmental sustainability, and social justice

Smaller farms are consistently higher yielding and biodiverse than large farms: A meta-analysis

Vincent Ricciardi1,2, Zia Mehrabi1,2, Hannah Wittman1, Dana James1, Navin Ramankutty1,2

1Instituture for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Canada; 2School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Canada

The scale of agricultural production is rapidly changing. While there has been much discussion on the political drivers of these trends, we know little about the socio-economic and environmental impacts of these large-scale land transitions. Through a meta-analysis of existing empirical case studies, we assess the relationships between farm size and key economic, social, and environmental outcomes across a range of geographies. We find that smaller farms have greater yields and biodiversity; yet, there was no relationship between farm size and resource efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, or profitability. Our results also highlight how different socio-ecological contexts influence these relationships.



Full talk
ID: 870 / 217R: 2
213R Land tenure (security) and land use (change)
Keywords: Land tenure security, sustainable agricultural practices, chaco salteño

Land tenure (in)security and investment in sustainable agricultural practices by small-scale farmers in the Chaco Salteño

Maurice Tschopp1, Graziano Ceddia1, Nick Bardsley2, Carla Inguaggiato1

1CDE / Unibe, Switzerland; 2School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading

Recently, the Argentinian Chaco has experienced profound transformations of land use and land governance, often at the expense of indigenous communities and smallholders. Small-scale “criollos” farmers rely on livestock herding within the Chaco forest as their main livelihood. They are however threatened by the advances of the agricultural frontier and the deforestation process. Large-scale soy plantations, as well as cattle companies are the primary drivers of this land-use change and have contributed significantly to deforestation in recent years. This has caused displacement of indigenous communities and small-scale criollos cattle farmers, with consequent increased pressure on remaining forests. Most smallholders do not have formal land titles, and are often “occupying” privately owned lands, and are hence under the threat of being evicted. On the other hand, a minority of smallholders does possess formal land rights, or have signed an agreement with the landlords.

This paper will address the complex relationship between land tenure security and investment in sustainable land use practices by smallholders. We will present results from a household survey conducted with smallholders from the Chaco salteño (n=550), as well as different statistical models (multinomial logit and probit models) that explore the influence of land tenure security on investments in “sustainable“ agricultural practices by smallholders. Other explanatory variables considered in the models include the socio-economic profiles of the household (e.g. education and income), social capital and current conflicts over access to land, as well as adoptions choices of their network of family and friends.

An extensive literature claims that land tenure security oftentimes corresponds to higher investments by farmers, including in sustainable agricultural practices. We discuss whether the land tenure security hypothesis is verified in the case of the Chaco salteño. Further, we highlight potential obstacles for the recognition of land rights of smallholders and discuss why there are so few smallholders that are involved in a land recognition process. We conclude by showing how these two issues have to be addressed together in the current debate on land use change and sustainable management of native forests.



Full talk
ID: 859 / 217R: 3
304R Transformative adaptation for land systems: ecosystem services in pathways of adaptation to global change
Keywords: food security, vulnerability, adaptation, land systems, drylands

Measuring household food security and variability in land functions across communities in a semiarid savanna system

Forrest R. Stevens1, Andrea E. Gaughan1, Narcisa Pricope2, Jonathan D. Salerno3, Joel Hartter4, Lin Cassidy5, Michael Drake4, Ariel Weaver1, Nicholas Kolarik1, Steele Olsen2, Bradshaw Amelia2, Kyle Woodward2

1University of Louisville, United States of America; 2University of North Carolina Wilmington; 3Colorado State University; 4University of Colorado Boulder; 5Lin Cassidy Consulting

Variability and change in land functions represent a significant source of exposure for households that are heavily dependent on agriculture, grazing, and natural resource gathering. Land uses interact with land cover in multifaceted ways, producing a diverse array of land functions that households are exposed and sensitive to. Our research quantifies spatial and temporal aspects of that intersection with household vulnerability as measured by food security, and as it is mediated by access to various livelihood capitals. We use a generalized model of household vulnerability, organized under a socio-ecological systems framework, and operationalize it using a combination of multispectral and multitemporal analyses of remotely-sensed data merged with data from 721 household surveys. These surveys were conducted in communities in Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia, and are contained within the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area of southern Africa. Using this model we show how estimates of vegetation structure, composition, and dynamics from different resource sheds may link to variation in food security at the household level, after taking into account household-, community-, and country-level factors that may mediate food insecurities. By focusing on aspects of land functions, which are at the heart of land systems and their changing dynamics, we address an important component of household vulnerability in these rural contexts. We discuss the implications of this conceptual framing as it relates to remotely-sensed and other biophysical data across various scales, for measuring and monitoring land functions, and their incorporation into coupled human-environment research. We also address potential interventions that might affect household food security in this region in the future.



Full talk
ID: 647 / 217R: 4
101R Trade-offs between agriculture and biodiversity in dynamic landscapes
Keywords: land-use change, social-ecological system, resilience, agricultural extensification, agent-based model

Understanding agricultural extensification: assessing the effect of external drivers on trade-offs and tipping-points in intensive and extensive agriculture

Maarten J. van Strien, Sibyl H. Huber, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Agricultural extensification is beneficial for biodiversity. The decision of farmers to intensify or extensify their production depends on, among others, a range of external drivers, such as agricultural direct payments, prices for agricultural produce or climate. In complex social-ecological systems (SESs), it is difficult to understand how changes in these drivers will influence the area of intensive or extensive agriculture. However, the direction of change in these land uses can be predicted if one knows the equilibrium states of intensive and extensive agriculture in a SES (i.e. a system is in equilibrium if, all things being equal, the state of the system is constant over time). The direction of change is either towards (i.e. stable equilibrium) or away from (i.e. unstable equilibrium) these equilibria. Changes in external drivers can affect the equilibrium states. For instance, a small change in direct payments could trigger a shift from agricultural intensification to extensification, or vice versa (i.e. tipping-points). In our study, we developed a generic approach to identify stable and unstable equilibria in the states of a SES. We identified equilibria in intensive and extensive agriculture and assessed their sensitivity to the above external drivers. Our case-study region was an alpine mountain region in the Canton of Valais, Switzerland. Land-use change in this region was simulated with an agent-based land-use model. We ran this model iteratively for different initial system states and driver levels. With vector-field plots and support vector machine classifications, we identified an unstable equilibrium in intensive agriculture, whereas extensive agriculture showed a stable equilibrium. The external drivers had a strong influence on the equilibrium states. We also found that a minimum amount of direct payments was necessary for agricultural extensification to take place. The developed approach provides valuable insights into furthering agricultural extensification in our case-study region.



Flash talk
ID: 602 / 217R: 5
350N Social-ecological outcomes of shifting cultivation in transition ((INVITED ABSTRACTS ONLY) )

Relationship between land and labour for sustainable development in india

Sarda Prasad

Jawaharlal Nehru University, India

Agrarian communities consist of cultivators and agriculture laborers and this paper is focusing on demographic changes and its impacts on agriculture and on analyzing food availability, accessibility and affordability among the mass. Based on primary and secondary data I found that quantitatively food availability is sufficient, but food accessibility and affordability are the main challenge for the government. Cultivators are turning into agriculture labour, and most of the farmers are not interested on agricultural works due to labour shortage, input cost, productivity and marketing mechanism and price. Cost benefit ratio is negatively related and mechanization is increasing.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm302RC: The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation - Part C
Session Chair: Kimberly Marie Carlson
Session Chair: Robert Heilmayr
Session Chair: Eric F. Lambin
Session Chair: Ximena Rueda
Session Chair: Rachael Garrett
MB-220 
 
Full talk
ID: 500 / 302RC: 1
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: forest degradation, transparency, corporate conservation, biodiversity, soundscapes

Using bioacoustics to strengthen corporate conservation commitments

Zuzana Burivalova, Rhett A. Butler, Edward T. Game

Princeton University, United States of America

Corporate conservation commitments, such as various certification schemes and zero deforestation pledges have become a popular, and widely publicized conservation strategy. Whether or not deforestation has occurred within the concessions of companies that are certified or committed to zero deforestation can be verified through satellite imagery. However, the conservation benefit of such commitments is determined not just by forest loss but also by the level of degradation in those forests left standing: even forests that appear as intact on satellite imagery may have low biodiversity conservation value, due to over-hunting, habitat destruction, invasive species, etc. These forms of degradation are difficult to monitor remotely, so there is a common, but unreasonable assumption that conserving forest cover is equivalent to conserving biodiversity. Bioacoustics, and specifically the recording and analysis of entire soundscapes, could be a suitable tool for monitoring animal biodiversity in the conservation areas of various industries. We will explain how using bioacoustics to monitor the success, or lack thereof, in certified forestry or forests spared through zero deforestation commitments, might be an advantageous solution for all stakeholders involved. We describe the results of a pilot experiment characterizing a timeseries of soundscapes of Bornean tropical lowland forest in a certified logging concession and in a spared conservation zone of an oil palm company committed to zero deforestation. We conclude that soundscape time series can provide a relatively cheap, objective, sensitive, and transparent tool to track industry conservation commitments.



Full talk
ID: 534 / 302RC: 2
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: Certification, Palm Oil, Indonesia, sustainability impact

Acceptance, implications, and perspectives of palm oil certification in indonesia

Jann Lay1,2, Sebastian Renner1,2, Tabea Lakemann1,2, Oliver Musshof2, Ariesga Wening2, Heiko Faust2, Yvonne Kunz2, Nunung Nuryatono3

1GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Germany; 2University of Goettingen, Germany; 3Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia

Increased awareness of adverse consequences of indirect land use change (ILUC), such as high greenhouse gas emissions and loss of biodiversity, has highlighted the need to make palm oil production more sustainable. Both official regulations such as the EU sustainability criteria for biofuels and voluntary measures such as the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) pursue this objective, yet the few existing empirical studies suggest little positive impact of certification on reduced deforestation, biodiversity and household income. The objective of this paper is two-fold: to shed light on the reasons why few positive impacts are found, and to spell out potential future directions for more effective sustainability certification. Our micro-level data from smallholders in Jambi, Indonesia show that under RSPO there are no significant differences in yields, management practices, or price premiums and only 45% of certified smallholders are aware of their certification. Case studies illustrate that adoption seems to be driven mainly by the fear not to be able to sell uncertified palm oil in the future rather than by the strive of producing a more sustainable product. Three policy measures addressing low adoption are tested in framed field experiments, namely a price premium, an environmental information intervention, and invoking group norms to increase the social acceptance of forest preservation. Both price premiums and environmental information resulted in significant reductions in plantation expansion. Taken together, these results suggest potential for enhancing the design and impact of certification schemes. In a final step, we simulate a stylized certification scheme with more ambitious impacts on biodiversity and household incomes while determining the premium price necessary to achieve these improvements.



Full talk
ID: 823 / 302RC: 3
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: Latin America, leakage, palm oil, public-private partnerships, zero-deforestation agreements

The role of national-scale, public-private partnerships toward deforestation-free commodity production in Colombia

Paul R. Furumo1, Clare Sullivan2, Eric F. Lambin1

1Earth System Science, Stanford University; 2University of Wisconsin-Madison

Public-private partnerships are increasingly recognized for their potential in meeting zero-deforestation goals at regional or jurisdictional levels, but very few agreements are implemented nationally across an entire supply chain. In Colombia, a spate of zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs) has recently been put forward by the Tropical Forest Alliance 2020 for palm oil and cattle sectors, and by the Cocoa and Forests Initiative for the cocoa sector. Both initiatives have the goal of zero gross deforestation in supply chains by 2020, using a 2011 forest cover baseline. We interviewed stakeholders to explore the structure and role of actors involved in these novel governance arrangements for each supply chain, focusing on procurement strategies, monitoring, and enforcement at different scales. We sought to understand the agency of different actors in setting rules, as well as the motivations, opportunities, and challenges for these public-private partnerships within and across sectors. We found consistency in the responsibilities of actors, with the Colombian government heavily involved in rule making and monitoring of the agreements. The oil palm ZDC has by far the most participation from the private sector, reflecting the relatively little deforestation caused by this industry in Colombia, and the opportunity to use existing certifications (RSPO, ISCC) to verify compliance. Both initiatives require coordination with ZDCs in other commodity sectors to reduce landscape-scale deforestation, providing a unique opportunity for synergy among initiatives to minimize leakage effects. While most of the palm oil, chocolate, and beef produced in Colombia are consumed domestically, we found that motivations for ZDCs align with recent interest in accessing new markets abroad and coincide with efforts by the Colombian government to meet its nationally determined contribution to the Paris Climate Agreement. The central role of the public sector in initiating, defining, and verifying supply chain ZDCs may be a key ingredient to success.



Full talk
ID: 897 / 302RC: 4
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: RSPO, matching, panel, well-being, oil palm

Do sustainability standards for palm oil production improve social well-being in Indonesia?

Janice Ser Huay Lee1, Daniela A. Miteva2, Kimberly Marie Carlson3, Robert Heilmayr4, Omar Saif1

1Nanyang Technological University of Singapore, Singapore; 2Ohio State University, USA; 3University of Hawaii, USA; 4University of California, Santa Barbara, USA

Sustainability certification standards are a form of nonstate market-driven governance initiative which are used as to ensure that production of goods or crops are carried out in an environment and socially responsible manner. Palm oil sustainability certification standards, such as the Roundtable of Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include environment and social criteria aimed at mitigating environmental degradation and improving social well-being outcomes in producing regions. Recent studies show that RSPO-certified plantations have a lower deforestation rate compared to non-certified plantations. However, the effect of certification on improving social well-being outcomes has yet to be rigorously tested. We analyzed the effect of certification on social well-being outcomes in Indonesia, the largest global supplier of RSPO-certified palm oil. We derived village-level longitudinal data from the Village Potential (Potensi Desa) survey for villages associated with RSPO-certified plantations and villages associated with non-certified plantations in four provinces in Sumatra and five provinces in Kalimantan. We applied a quasi-experimental counterfactual analysis using matching techniques and applied difference-in-difference and panel models to compare the social well-being outcomes in RSPO-certified villages and non-certified villages. We show a non-random placement of RSPO concessions in Kalimantan and Sumatra that is influenced by forest cover in year 2000, proximity to infrastructure, elevation, and state regulations on land-use. Our difference-in-difference analysis showed that RSPO-certified villages reported less incidences of water and air pollution compared to non-certified villages in Kalimantan, but showed no results for Sumatra. Our panel regression analysis showed that RSPO-certified villages had more private education facilities than non-certified villages in Kalimantan, and more health facilities in Sumatra. These preliminary results show how sustainability certification standards such as the RSPO could contribute towards village-level well-being and highlights the need for more robust social data to be collected to evaluate the effectiveness of RSPO’s impact on ‘People, Planet and Profit’.



Flash talk
ID: 580 / 302RC: 5
302R The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Keywords: land use change, leakage, spillovers, supply chain, agricultural rents, spatial model

Modeling the effects of soybean sector zero-deforestation commitment implementation on land cover change in South America

Rodrigo Rivero Castro1, Kimberly Carlson1, Rachael Garrett2, Nelson Villoria3, Samuel Levy2, Florian Gollnow4

1University of Hawaii at Manoa, United States of America; 2Boston University, United States of America; 3Kansas State University, United States of America; 4National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, United States of America

Agricultural commodity expansion is a leading cause of tropical deforestation. Public concern over the responsibility of companies along these commodity supply chains for forest loss has led many corporations to adopt zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs), pledges not to buy or handle products produced on recently deforested or currently forested lands. In some cases, ZDC implementation has reduced deforestation within target supply chains. Yet, ZDCs differ in their implementation details, including timelines and coverage areas (e.g., biome, forest type), and we lack systematic understanding of how such details affect ZDCs success in preserving forests. Moreover, region-specific ZDCs may displace deforestation to areas not covered by commitments.

Our research aims to evaluate the potential effects of ZDCs on tropical land cover by addressing the following questions: How do implementation timelines and area of coverage affect ZDCs success at conserving forests? If commodity expansion is displaced, what is the distribution of displacement across space and land cover types? To answer these questions, we built a land change model that simulates the effects of soy industry ZDC implementation across Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina, and Paraguay, which together account for half of global soybean production. The model uses biophysical and socio-economic variables, including the cost of compliance with ZDCs, to predict land cover changes associated with soy demand. The simulation incorporates spatio-temporal patterns of company sourcing and commitment details reported by Trase, Forest 500, and Supply Change. We evaluate land cover outcomes under different scenarios, including variation of ZDC implementation dates, areas covered, and levels of displacement.

Our results are expected to provide insight into how ZDC characteristics affect land cover change associated with agricultural demand, including locations of displacement. By identifying combinations of implementation details most likely to preserve forests, the work informs design of future and re-evaluation of current ZDCs.



Flash talk
ID: 781 / 302RC: 6
112R Sustainability impacts of large scale agricultural investments
Keywords: palm oil production model, Latin America, Central Africa, Southeast Asia, RSPO

Small-scale palm oil producers and supply chain actors left out from existing certification schemes

Laurène Feintrenie1,2,3, Laurent Gazull1, Colombine Lesage1,4,5, Mélanie Laumain1,6, Tom Farago1,3,6, Valentina Robiglio3, Isabelle Michel6, Claire Durand6,7, Richard Pasquis1

1Cirad, Univ Montpellier, France; 2Catie, Costa-Rica; 3Icraf, Kenya; 4ENSAIA Nancy, France; 5Université de Lorraine, France; 6IRC-Montpellier SupAgro, France; 7ISTOM, France

Agricultural history explains most of current palm oil production models (organization of actors including oil palm growers and supply chains). An indigenous non-timber forest product in Central Africa which plant was domesticated and integrated into family farming, later joined by colonial industrial plantations. An imported cash crop in Southeast Asia, dominated by industrial producers while smallholders have still to learn artisanal milling to get their autonomy from industrial mills. Also an imported cash crop in Latin America, but whose production models evolved in the confrontation with social agrarian reforms, ending with original ‘social models’. These production models have a great diversity of social, economic and environmental impacts. Taking into consideration national specificities (social organization, market, public policies, and environment) and local knowledge regarding palm oil, can we draw lessons learnt from one place to improve palm oil local and global benefits in another? Industrial models are targeted to promote sustainable and zero-deforestation in the palm oil sector, because industries are generally considered as the main culprits of deforestation and land grabbing resulting from oil palm plantations expansion in Southeast Asia. However the expansion patterns in the original producing countries of Africa or in Latin America might prove different. Hence, are certification schemes efficient to shape sustainable oil palm landscapes? In an attempt to answer these questions, we built on pantropical expertise in palm oil producing countries (Indonesia, Central African countries, Colombia) with strong field experience, on literature review and on recent field work in Mexico and Peru, to argue on the inadequacy of certification schemes to reach non-industrial palm oil production models. Furthermore, we highlight some social and economic risks reinforced by this strategy, such as exclusion of smallholders from supply chains, or the development of informal supply chains not regulated regarding working conditions and environment impacts.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm310R: Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Session Chair: Enrico Celio
Session Chair: Yu-Pin Lin
Session Chair: Wan-Yu Lien
Session Chair: Li-Pei Peng
MB-120 
 
Full talk
ID: 329 / 310R: 1
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: Europe, ILM initiatives

Integrated landscape management initiatives in europe: an overview

Maria Garcia-Martin, Tobias Plieninger

University of Göttingen, Germany

A new paradigm in landscape management is needed as an alternative to the prevailing single-sector-oriented approaches that generally lead to mono-functional landscapes and environmental degradation. Integrated landscape management (ILM) initiatives could offer this alternative. In a coordinated effort with the EcoAgriculture Partners we carried out a systematic review of over 70 local and regional ILM initiatives in Europe so as to identify their characteristics, constraints, and successes. The results of this study indicate these initiatives can offer opportunities for novel partnerships seeking to collaboratively manage landscapes for multifunctionality. However, lack of representation of relevant stakeholder groups and insufficient legal and long-term financial support have been hindering their potential as agents of change for landscape sustainability in Europe. Developing monitoring strategies that demonstrate their success and contributions to landscape sustainability could help increases the legal and financial support they need.

Three years after we finished the European review of ILM initiatives this session of the GLP offers an opportunity to address this challenge by asking the important question: “how can outcomes of ILM initiatives and the quality of their process by monitored and evaluated?” We will use this space to on the one hand, share the main finings of our research regarding characteristics of European ILM initiatives, with a special focus on their self-reported challenges and opportunities; and on the other hand, to suggest ways forward to improve the evaluation of their outcomes.



Full talk
ID: 464 / 310R: 2
212R Landscape ecological and social-ecological approaches in agro-ecological system
Keywords: organic agriculture, socio-ecological systems, sustainability, land use, farmers

The varied contributions of organic agriculture to socio-ecological sustainability in Canada

Susanna E. Klassen, Navin Ramankutty, Hannah Wittman

University of British Columbia, Canada

Organic agriculture is proposed as a solution to many food systems challenges, including improving environmental problems such as biodiversity loss, and providing better conditions for farm workers. At a global scale, organic agriculture has also been shown to improve pest control, contribute to yield stabilization, and increase profitability of farming, but these benefits are often geographically variable, and dependent on the socio-ecolgical context and the specific practices used by farmers (Seufert and Ramankutty 2017). Organic agriculture is now a recognized policy framework with established legislation to limit chemically-intensive farming practices, and global organic acreage increased by 15% between 2014 and 2015. Yet, there are important knowledge gaps about the extent to which organic farmers are using environmental best practices (e.g. inter-cropping and crop rotations) versus following jurisdictional regulations regarding synthetic inputs. There is growing evidence that organic agriculture should not be conflated with sustainable agriculture, because organic standards do not directly regulate practices that facilitate either ecologically-beneficial management practices or the social welfare of workers (Seufert et al. 2017). Canada hosts the fifth largest organic market globally, valued at $5.4 billion in 2017, and the number of organic farms has been increasing steadily amidst declines in the total number of farmers nationally. This research uses data from the agricultural census and interviews with industry stakeholders to examine trends in the adoption of sustainable management practices and structure of organic farms across Canada relative to non-organic. The study finds that while overall organic farms are using more sustainable management practices compared to non-organic farms, the uptake of these practices varies with farm size, and by context. This research increases our understanding of the varied contributions of organic agriculture to socio-ecological sustainability.



Full talk
ID: 324 / 310R: 3
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: impact assessment, remote sensing, GIS, ecosystem services, rural landscape

Measuring landscape performance over time; a space odyssey?

Louise Willemen, Trinidad Del Rio, Andy Nelson

University of Twente - ITC, Netherlands, The

Globally, rural areas are changing at a vast pace, surpassing planetary boundaries, and facing human development challenges, such as widespread land degradation and resource conflicts. Humans are the main driver of change in the new geological epoch in which we live, the Anthropocene. While the role of humans in degrading rural areas is well-documented and overwhelming, robust, quantitative evidence on the positive human impact to improve the rural landscape is almost entirely absent. This is bad news. The more evidence we have, the wiser decisions on new actions, adaptive management, and resource allocation can be made to drive the urgent improvements of our rural areas.

Spatial data availability and quality is increasing rapidly. How, when and for what can these data be used to measure the effect of integrated landscape interventions over time? Integrated interventions address multiple objectives with intended actions that aim to improve both living conditions for people and nature. These translate into actions in which human needs are addressed by management of the natural environment, with only a minor role for abiotic infrastructures. The concept of ecosystem services, defined as the contributions of nature to humans, links the social with the ecological system and is therefore used as entry point for evaluating integrated landscape interventions.

We will provide an example of an ex-post evaluation based on remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) information to visualize and assess landscape conditions in the rural Baviaanskloof Hartland Conservancy, South Africa. Since 2005, several interventions have been implemented here to overcome decades of small livestock farming which has led to extensive land degradation and loos in income. Interventions included revegetating of degraded areas, long term livestock exclusion and essential oil production as an alternative livelihood to goat and sheep farming; or a combination of these. Together with the project leads from LivingLand we selected six ecosystem services linked to the interventions objectives. Using field observations we calibrated RS Sentinel-2 vegetation indices combined with GIS data, which we used to map the selected ecosystem services. This approach allowed us to compare intervened and non-intervened sites over time, especially those interventions with a strong relation to vegetation.



Full talk
ID: 666 / 310R: 4
212R Landscape ecological and social-ecological approaches in agro-ecological system
Keywords: Cultural landscape, Collaborative planning, Participatory monitoring, indicators of resilience, Satoyama Initiative

Participatory planning and monitoring for integrated landscape management: A case study of eastern rural Taiwan

Kuang-Chung Lee, Shao Yu Yan

National Dong-Hwa University, Taiwan

Landscapes can be regarded as ‘a culture–nature link.’ Many living examples of the world are rich in natural and cultural values and have proven sustainable over centuries because of the maintenance by local communities. Satoyama, a traditional socio-ecological production landscape (SEPL) provides a functional linkage between paddy fields and the associated environment with lots of ecosystem services. Conservation and revitalization of SEPLs needs a more participatory and comprehensible approach, so that local people in the area and other stakeholders can be involved in the planning and management processes However, there has been a lack of empirical research to develop such kind of approaches.

The study aims to analyze the processes and outcomes of the innovative ‘Forest-River-Village-Sea Ecoagriculture Initiative’ launched from October 2016 to Dec 2017 in Xinshe village, Hualien, Taiwan. Inspired by the ideas of the Satoyama Initiative and the ecoagriculture, since October 2016, the case study area has started to be planned and managed collectively with help of an area-based multi-stakeholder platform composed of about 20 representatives from local indigenous communities, governmental institutions, the local school, academics, NGOs and green enterprises. Both the Task Force and Multi-Stakeholder Platform Meetings employs an integrated landscape and community-based approach to enhancing sustainable use of biodiversity by the communities and resilience of SEPLs. A short-to-long-term action plan for the Initiative was drew up collectively by stakeholders in April 2017 in line with the framework of three-fold approach to the Satoyama Initiative. To monitor the progress and outcomes of the Initiative, the research team adopted the set of indicators of resilience in SEPLs (UNU-IAS et al. 2014) and conducted a series of workshops with local people to evaluate 20 resilience indicators as well as figure out strategies for enhancing resilience with respect to each indicator. The suggested revisions of the existing action plan for the Initiative proposed by the local indicator task group were successfully brought into the Multi-Stakeholder Platform Meeting for approval.



Flash talk
ID: 390 / 310R: 5
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: Landscape approach, Participatory method, Landscape governance

Assessing landscape governance: a participatory approach

Roderick Zagt1, Maartje de Graaf1, Louise Buck2, Seth Shames2

1Tropenbos International, Netherlands, The; 2EcoAgriculture Partners, United States

From local to global and from production to conservation, in any given landscape we find many different functions and interests. For sustainable landscapes it is key to understand how these interests are balanced in rules and decision-making processes, and how this influences the behavior of actors in the landscape.

Tropenbos International and EcoAgriculture Partners developed the Landscape Governance Assessment as an approach to facilitate the participatory analysis of the rules and decision-making processes in the landscape. It allows stakeholders to better understand the governance of their landscape, and to collaboratively identify opportunities for improvements. Tropenbos International has already conducted the Landscape Governance Assessment in 15 landscapes across 9 countries. In this session we will introduce the tool and share experiences with its application.



Full talk
ID: 278 / 310R: 6
310R Landscape performance assessment as a method of knowledge co-production and framing equitable future pathways
Keywords: transformative landscape approaches, co-production of knowledge, landscape performance, theory of change, Southeast Asia

Measuring impacts of transformative landscape approaches to agroecology: lessons from Laos

Jean-Christophe Castella1,2,3, Pascal Lienhard1,3, Khameun Nandee3, Thisadee Chounlamountry4, Sonnasack Phaipasith5, Sisavath Phimmasone3,4, Chloé Aussaresses1,3, Robin Collombet1,3

1Centre de coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CIRAD - UPR AÏDA, Montpellier, France; 2Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, IRD Montpellier, France; 3Eco-Friendly Intensification and Climate resilient Agricultural Systems (EFICAS) Project, (DALaM-CIRAD), Vientiane, Lao PDR; 4Department of Agricultural Land Management (DALaM), Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), Vientiane, Lao PDR; 5Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, National University of Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR

In the northern uplands of Laos, landscape mosaics and people livelihoods rely on complex interactions, preventing the straightforward adoption of sustainable land management techniques despite their demonstrated performances as compared to (i) swidden systems with shortening fallow periods or (ii) monocropping systems based on the use of chemical inputs and/or mechanical tillage. To facilitate the dissemination of agroecology innovations in remote upland villages, the Eco-Friendly Intensification and Climate resilient Agricultural Systems (EFICAS) project is engaging with village communities into landscape level transformations of agricultural production and resource management. Since 2014, the project staff works closely with local communities on a theory of change process that promotes agroecology practices such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry, system of rice intensification, or integrated farming. Local stakeholders envision their desirable village landscape through participatory land use planning and then engage into successive learning loops to co-produce their own development pathways towards the collectively agreed land use plan.

An impact monitoring systems has been setup since the beginning of the project to demonstrate the effectiveness of transformative landscape approaches on achieving sustainable development goals, including climate change mitigation and adaptation. We selected twelve pairs of similar villages covering the large diversity of agroecological and socioeconomic contexts found in the study region. Interventions were organized in one village of each pair while the other village was used as control. We co-produced the monitoring indicators with local communities to make sure they were meaningful to them and actionable to adjust the interventions all along the transformative process. The participatory monitoring system consisted in three successive rounds of data collection organized in 2014 (baseline), 2016 and 2018 in both intervention and control villages. We co-designed and then used the EFICAS role-play game to explore with farmers scenarios of changes and monitor social learning along the transformative pathway.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm314R: Forest transitions and the resurgence of tree cover in the Global South
Session Chair: Jefferson Fox
Session Chair: Kaspar Hurni
MB-114 
 
Full talk
ID: 900 / 314R: 1
314R Forest transitions and the resurgence of tree cover in the Global South
Keywords: forest cover mapping, forest transition, Nepal. LandTrendr

The creation of annual forest cover maps to assess forest transition in Nepal from 1990-2016

Kaspar Hurni1,2, Jamon Van Den Hock3, Alexander Smith3

1East West Center, HI, USA; 2Center for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland; 3Geography and Geospatial Science, Oregon State University

We created an annual time-series of binary forest and non-forest maps from 1990-2016 in Nepal using the random forest classifier and a rigorous pre-processing of Landsat images to reduce data gaps and noise related to cloud cover and haze, inter- and intra-annual variations in vegetation greenness, and topography. We based our analysis on Landsat 5, 7, and 8 surface reflectance data, which we first corrected for differences in the illumination condition related to topography. Next, we performed an image composition using growing season images (July-October) of each year to obtain a time-series of annual image composites. To further eliminate data gaps we then evaluated land cover trends for each pixel from 1992-2016 using LandTrendr. This allowed us to estimate the land cover reflectance for those years and pixels where data gaps occurred, ultimately resulting in a gap- and noise-free annual time-series of Landsat data. We then collected forest and non-forest classification samples using the 1990 and 2010 imagery. Due to our rigorous image pre-processing routine, which normalized the data across time and space, we could merge the samples collected for these two years and apply them to each year of the time-series to obtain annual forest cover maps. This approach proved to work well and we reached a 90% overall classification accuracy with 87% forest user’s accuracy. We found nearly 19% tree-cover expansion over the study period and that the relative gains of tree cover were comparable in the Middle Hills and Mountain regions of Nepal while we mapped less gain in the Terai. We also examined tree cover change at the more local Village Development Committee (VDC) level as well, identifying that the most gain has occurred in approximately twenty VDCs spanning central and eastern Nepal.



Full talk
ID: 899 / 314R: 2
314R Forest transitions and the resurgence of tree cover in the Global South
Keywords: afforestation, Nepal, LCLUC, machine learning

Mapping changes in tree cover in Nepal 1990 to 2016: Understanding the drivers of change

Jefferson Fox, Sumeet Saksena, Hanpei Zhang

East-West Center, United States of America

We developed statistical models to explain tree cover using a large suite of biophysical and socio-economic data. Considering that most coupled natural-human systems are complex, the team felt it best to use complimentary modeling approaches. Specifically we chose to use multi-level regression with Village Development Committees (VDC), the smallest administrative unit in Nepal, nested under districts (aka mixed effects or hierarchical modeling) and a machine learning method – Random Forests (RF). In both these models, we also incorporated the effects of spatial clustering. Initially we chose to model as the dependent variable the change in percentage tree cover between 2001 and 2016. The rationale for this is that any socio-economic changes that happened around 2001 (the census year) could have possible impacts on the tree cover shortly after 2001. We found that places with less tree cover, to begin with, had higher growth rates. We also found the number of migration to be significant only in the Middle Hills. The positive impact of community forestry was observed also mainly in the Middle Hills, as was the effect of distance to the nearest protected area. The Random Forest Model suggested that population density is one of the key drivers of change, more so than either migration or community forestry or protection efforts. An advantage of the Random Forest models over the multi-level models is that they enable us to examine the partial dependence between the outcome variable and the predictors. In all cases, we gained valuable insights into these relationships. They are nonlinear, non-monotonous, and they have thresholds, tipping points, and saturation effects. Previous studies of the impact of migration on tree-cover change did not explore these aspects of the association. In addition, Fox and country collaborator, Dr. Ram Chhetri, have conducted fieldwork in six Nepali villages since the 1980s. An examination of changes in agriculture, livelihoods, and tree cover in these villages provides a finer lens through which to interpret the modeling results.



Full talk
ID: 339 / 314R: 3
314R Forest transitions and the resurgence of tree cover in the Global South
Keywords: swidden, agricultural intensification, land-sparing, rural policy, Mexico

The influence of modern state institutions on forest transitions: The case of the Southern Yucatan, Mexico

Carlos Dobler-Morales1, Rinku Roy Chowdhury1, Birgit Schmook2

1Clark University, United States of America; 2ECOSUR-Chetumal, Mexico

By the 1980s, the Southern Yucatan, in southeast Mexico, had consolidated its status as a global hotspot of deforestation. Forest conversion took place as a consequence of rapid smallholder occupation, a process accompanied by swidden agriculture expansion. Today, however, the region exhibits considerably lower forest loss rates. This paper examines the factors that influenced this transition. In particular, this study focuses on the role that modern agrarian, welfare, and environmental policy has played in changing land-use patterns in the region. As elsewhere in Latin America, smallholder livelihoods in the Southern Yucatan have not only become more globally connected through distant labor opportunities and remittances; they have also become exposed to a panoply of agricultural subsidies and antipoverty programs, as well as expanding protected areas and new conservation instruments such as Payment for Ecosystem Services. Drawing from an 81-household survey, 17 key-informant interviews, and a 31 year Landsat time-series, this study traces the linkages between the region’s shifting policy environment, smallholder land-use decisions, and their landscape-level expressions. Results illustrate how the array of state institutions operating in the Southern Yucatan have been inducing smallholders to intensify their agricultural production via incentives to “modernize” their swiddens and restrictions on rotating fields. At a landscape level, these changes in agricultural practices appear to be contributing to the stabilization and simplification of the formerly dynamic and complex agro-forest mosaic. The case of the Southern Yucatan thus represents a trajectory of forest recovery that does not fit neatly with interpretations rooted in the deagrarianization of the countryside. Instead, agricultural livelihoods persist here, often expressing the ways smallholders navigate the institutional arrangement that simultaneously encourages them to intensify their production while setting apart land for conservation.



Full talk
ID: 287 / 314R: 4
314R Forest transitions and the resurgence of tree cover in the Global South
Keywords: deforestation, forest transition, agriculture, forestry, trade

Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition

Florence Pendrill1, U. Martin Persson1, Javier Godar2, Thomas Kastner3

1Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden; 2Stockholm Environment Institute; 3Senckenberg Biodiversität und Klima

While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade in forest-risk commodities on the rise, it is becoming increasingly important to consider between-country trade linkages in assessing the drivers of—and possible connections between—forest loss and gain across countries. Previous studies have shown that countries that have undergone a forest transition (and are now increasing their forest cover) tend to displace land use outside their borders. However, lack of comprehensive data on deforestation drivers imply that it has not been possible to ascertain whether this has accelerated forest loss in sourcing countries. To remedy this, we present a land-balance model that quantifies deforestation embodied in production of agricultural and forestry commodities at country level across the tropics and subtropics, subsequently tracing embodied deforestation to countries of apparent consumption using a physical, country-to-country trade model. We find that in the period 2005–2013, nearly 60% (5.3 Mha yr-1) of forest loss could be attributed to expanding commercial cropland, pastures and tree plantations. The commodity groups most commonly associated with deforestation were cattle meat, forestry products, oil palm, cereals and soybeans, though variation between countries and regions was large. A large (26%) and slightly increasing share of deforestation was attributed to international demand, the bulk of which (87%) was exported to countries that either exhibit decreasing deforestation rates or increasing forest cover (late- or post-forest transition countries), particularly in Europe and Asia (China, India, and Russia). About a third of the net forest gains in post-forest transition countries was in this way offset by imports of commodities causing deforestation elsewhere, suggesting that achieving a global forest transition will be substantially more challenging than achieving national or regional ones.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm318R: Uncertainty assessment of land system science products
Session Chair: Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr
Session Chair: Letícia Santos Lima
UniS-A 022 
 
Full talk
ID: 379 / 318R: 1
318R Uncertainty assessment of land system science products
Keywords: Land-use allocation, uncertainty, stochastic disturbance, Monte Carlo simulation, cellular automata

A Time Monte Carlo method to consider uncertainty in land change models

Ahmed Mustafa, Ismaïl Saadi, Mario Cools, Jacques Teller

Liege University, Belgium

One of the main objectives of land change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this study, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC method produces results comparable with the existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the proposed method is capable of tuning uncertainty on longer-term horizons. Controlling the degree of randomness over time is an important feature of the TMC method as the distant future is characterized by more uncertainty than the near future.



Full talk
ID: 614 / 318R: 2
318R Uncertainty assessment of land system science products
Keywords: land-use change modelling, remote sensing, uncertainty assessment

Assessing uncertainties in global land-use modelling

Ruediger Schaldach, Jan Schuengel, Benjamin Stuch

University of Kassel, Germany

Land-use and land-cover change are major drivers of climate and environmental change. For investigating these processes on the global scale, different spatially explicit simulation models have been developed in recent years. These models integrate socio-economic and environmental processes to reproduce observed changes and to assess future development pathways in form of scenarios. Thereby, they can help to understand complex interactions of spatiotemporal processes (e.g. expansion vs. intensification of agriculture) and can provide valuable information for policy and decision makers (e.g. nature conservation). Nevertheless, the outcomes of such modelling exercises are influenced by uncertainties of input data, model parameters and model structure that need to be taken into account when interpreting the generated information.

An important factor of uncertainty is the remote sensing product determining the land-cover distribution at the starting point of a simulation. Available products show large discrepancies due to different satellite sensors, processing methods and classification systems. Our study investigates the influence of the land-cover product used for model initialization on the estimation of model parameter values and the simulated spatial extent and location of land-use change. In addition, we propose a mechanism to assess and communicate these uncertainties in form of an ensemble analysis. The study is conducted with the spatially explicit land-system model LandSHIFT that operates on a global 5 arc-min raster. The model is initialized with the global land-cover datasets CCI, MODIS and GlobeLand30. Based on this input data, the model parameters used for evaluating cell suitability for different land-use types were estimated with two different approaches. In the following, the six resulting model configurations (= ensemble members) were applied to calculate land-use change between 2000 and 2010. Different methods are discussed to quantify and visualize the variability of simulation results between the ensemble members in order to communicate the inherent uncertainties to model users.



Flash talk
ID: 342 / 318R: 3
318R Uncertainty assessment of land system science products
Keywords: land cover, accuracy assessment, confusion matrix, sampling design, remote sensing

Trends in land cover mapping accuracy assessment approaches

Lucia Morales-Barquero1, Mitchell B. Lyons1,2, Stuart Phinn1, Chris Roelfsema1

1Remote Sensing Research Centre, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Australia; 2Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Australia

The utility of land cover maps for natural resources management relies on knowing the associated map uncertainty. Despite being a well-established practice, assessing land cover map accuracy is not without problems. Recent advances in remote sensing, including the increasing availability of higher spatial and temporal resolution satellite data, and data analysis capabilities create opportunities and challenges for improving the application of accuracy assessment. Consequently, revisiting how map error and accuracy levels has been carried out and reported in the last two decades is timely, to highlight areas where there is scope for taking advantage of these emerging opportunities. We conducted a quantitative literature review on accuracy assessment practices of land cover maps produced through classification of remote sensing images. We performed a structured search for land cover mapping that reported accuracy assessments, limiting our search to journals within the remote sensing field and papers published between 1998-2017. After an initial screening process, we selected a random sample of 225 papers, and extracted and standardized information on various components of their accuracy assessments. We discovered that only 63 % of the papers explicitly included an error matrix, and a very limited number (21%) reported overall accuracy with confidence intervals. The use of kappa continues to be standard practice, being reported in 54% of the literature published on or after 2012. The sampling scheme used to obtain the reference data could not be determined for approximately 20% of the studies; from those that reported the sampling design, 86% applied a probability sampling. No trend was found between classification complexity (i.e. number of classes) and measured accuracy, independent from the size of the study area. Our findings indicate that considerable work remains to identify and adopt more robust accuracy assessment practices to achieve fully transparent and comparable land cover maps.



Flash talk
ID: 442 / 318R: 4
318R Uncertainty assessment of land system science products
Keywords: FRA, sequestration, tropics, biomass, uncertainties

It's a numbers game? Uncertainties in tropical forest carbon stocks driven by differing global assessments

Manan Bhan, Karlheinz Erb, Simone Gingrich

Institute of Social Ecology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria

Tropical forest carbon stocks are a key determinant of forest change and its assessment is acknowledged as being central to evolving strategies for climate change mitigation. Yet, estimates of the size and distribution of tropical forest carbon stocks differ widely due to multiplicity of approaches and inadequate data. The 5-yearly FAO Forest Resource Assessments (FRAs) show a consistent decline of tropical forest carbon stocks, but its estimates are in disagreement with other published studies. However, the extent of divergence at pan-tropical and continental levels remains unquantified. While differences in spatial patterns have been analysed in existing studies, the uncertainty related to carbon stocks at landscape and higher spatial levels, and its relevance, is not well-explored. Here, I quantify the disparities for corresponding years between FAO trends and other studies focussed on tropical forest carbon stocks to further the understanding of uncertainties among these assessments. Extrapolating FAO assessments over all years between 1990 and 2015, I find that there are marked contrasts between carbon stocks estimates at pan-tropical and continental levels. The mapping of absolute and relative differences at the pixel level reveal pronounced regional variations. Further, an analysis of the provenance of above-ground biomass displays inconsistencies. However, a spatially-explicit judgement over the viability of particular estimates remains elusive and no single approach persists as more precise than others. My results provide insights on the disparities among tropical assessments of forest carbon stocks, thereby furthering the study of forest change in the tropics. This analysis is another effort towards reconciling differences in carbon stocks measurement approaches and their impacts on on-ground estimates, which is an important step towards establishing more robust estimates of global ecosystem carbon stocks. This assumes added significance in light of the stock-taking exercises envisaged as part of the Paris Agreement, the implementation of mitigation policies like REDD+ as well as emerging, novel remote sensing products.



Flash talk
ID: 345 / 318R: 5
318R Uncertainty assessment of land system science products
Keywords: validation, LUCC models, futures

Uncertainties in LUCC modelling: a contributive review and implications for validation techniques

Thomas HOUET

CNRS, France

When using LUCC models for projecting future possible land changes, four type of uncertainties can be distinguished: (1) the data uncertainty (map accuracy), (2) the inherent model uncertainty, (3) ensemble multi-model uncertainty and (4) the future ensemble uncertainty.

This contribution propose a definition of these types of uncertainties, illustrated with examples from the literature or from various models, and the related implications for validating models outcomes.

The data uncertainty relies for instance to LULC maps produced thanks to inter/extrapolation climate data or remotely sensed data which accuracy is usually assessed using Overall Accuracy or Kappa of Agreement Indices.

The inherent model uncertainty highlights the variability of locations or quantity of futures LUCC changes due to the model functioning or data representation (continuous or discrete for instance).

The multi-model ensemble uncertainty illustrate the previous uncertainty but inheriting from the use of various models with a unique dataset (or scenario).

The future ensemble uncertainty describes the wide range of future LUCC changes. In others words, it encompasses all of the previous uncertainties by considering a set of various prospective scenarios. It means that it considers only consistent and plausible combination of scenarios’ hypothesis (and their related datasets), which is more limited compared to assessing the combination of all possible assumptions (assimilated here to sensitivity analysis).

Validation techniques that can be used for assessing the three latter uncertainty are more sensitive as validating the future is impossible. Validation techniques and scenarios rely to two contrary paradigms: ‘prediction’ vs. ‘multiple possible future’. But, when replaced in the latter paradigm, combined validation techniques can be useful to improve the confidence users can have in model outcomes.



Full talk
ID: 238 / 318R: 6
307R Large-scale behavioural models of land use change
Keywords: carbon, deforestation, model, simulation, REDD

Criteria to confirm models that simulate deforestation and carbon disturbance

Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr

Clark University, United States of America

The Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) recommends the Figure of Merit (FOM) as a possible metric to confirm models that simulate deforestation baselines for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). The FOM ranges from 0% to 100%, where larger FOMs indicate more-accurate simulations. VCS requires that simulation models achieve a FOM greater than or equal to the percentage deforestation during the calibration period. This article analyses FOM’s mathematical properties and illustrates FOM’s empirical behavior by comparing various models that simulate deforestation and the resulting carbon disturbance in Bolivia during 2010–2014. The Total Operating Characteristic frames FOM’s mathematical properties as a function of the quantity and allocation of simulated deforestation. A leaf graph shows how deforestation’s quantity can be more influential than its allocation when simulating carbon disturbance. Results expose how current versions of the VCS methodologies could conceivably permit models that are less accurate than a random allocation of deforestation, while simultaneously prohibit models that are accurate concerning carbon disturbance. Conclusions give specific recommendations to improve the next version of the VCS methodology concerning three concepts: the simulated deforestation quantity, the required minimum FOM, and the simulated carbon disturbance. These concepts apply generally to a wide array of large-scale behavioural models that simulate land use change.

 
3:00pm - 4:15pm334R: Urban expansion and ecosystem services
Session Chair: Christopher Bren d'Amour
MB-205 
 
Flash talk
ID: 507 / 334R: 1
107R Assessing, modelling, and analysing land use and land management impacts on the Earth system
Keywords: Land use change; natural habitat; ecosystem services

Impacts of cropland expansion on natural habitat in rapid urbanization areas: A case study in China

Xinli KE, Lanping TANG

Huazhong Agricultural University, China, People's Republic of

Natural habitat plays an important role in protecting ecosystem services to respond to global climate change and achieving sustainable development of society. Land use changes, including urban expansion and cropland expansion, inevitably exert substantial impacts on natural habitat. Many studies focus on the effects of urban expansion on natural habitat, but research on the impacts of cropland expansion on natural habitat is insufficient. Cropland expansion is a wide and general practice in China in order to secure an increasing food supply, so the land reclamation for farming is made obligatory by the Cropland Balance Policy (a state policy in China). However, cropland expansion may result in natural habitat loss, which is often overlooked. Taking China as the study area, this paper aims to explore the impacts of cropland expansion on natural habitat. The results indicate that cropland expansion led to considerable loss of natural habitat (with 22,051 km2) in China from 2000 to 2010, and grassland suffered the heaviest loss (52% of the total loss). Furthermore, the spatial distribution of impact of cropland expansion on natural habitat with the decreased characteristics from west to east and from north to south in China. Noticeably, special attention needs to be paid to the ecologically fragile zones, especially in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang. Importantly, the natural habitat loss caused by cropland expansion was 11 times as much as that caused by urban expansion. This study highlights the negative effect of cropland expansion on natural habitat, which is serious but ignored. Thus, China must prevent more natural habitat from being wiped out by cropland expansion, and effective land use policies and regulations must take the considerably negative impacts of cropland expansion on natural habitat into the consideration to achieve the sustainable development goals.



Full talk
ID: 862 / 334R: 2
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: flash floods, sediment transport, WaTEM/SEDEM, urban area, GIS

The interaction of rural and urban areas by flash floods and sediment transport

Miroslav Bauer, Tomas Dostal, Josef Krasa, Barbora Jachymova

CTU in Prague, Czech Republic

Intense rainfall-runoff events and subsequent soil erosion can cause serious damage to the infrastructure in urban areas. In the Czech Republic, the Ministry of the Interior has supported an analysis dealing with the risks to residents, infrastructure, and water bodies from flash floods. A total of more than 150 000 risk points over whole Czech Republic area (78 866 km2) were identified by GIS morphology and land-use analysis. The threat from rural areas (open landscape), the vulnerability for urban areas, and the resulting risk categories at boundaries were determined for each of these points. The WaTEM/SEDEM model was used to assess the threat with 10 m data resolution. The summarized vulnerability of real objects on individual runoff trajectories was combined with the threat of sediment transport, resulting in the overall risk represented by a 5-degree scale, from lowest (1) to highest (5). Generally 19% of the sites in the Czech Republic, i.e. more than 23 400 sites, have been assigned to categories 4 and 5, with a high level of risk. 34 % of cadastral units are classified as the high risky (4416 cadasters, with a total area 24707 km2). Approximately 30% of the population of the Czech Republic live in high-risk cadastral areas, potentially touched by high sediment transport to urban area. To reduce risk, four scenarios of protection were modeled. The most effective solution, covered by technical measures implementation or conversion to grassland within the contributing areas, can reduce the number of high-risk sites from 23 400 to 3 700.

The research has been supported by projects No. Mobility7AMB18DE006; SHui 773903; COST LTC18030; SGS17/173/OHK1/3T/11 and QK1720289.



Flash talk
ID: 254 / 334R: 3
203R Land use change processes and interactions along the urban-rural gradient
Keywords: Rural development, heritage, tourism, urbanization, transformation

Heritage tourism, urbanization and the changing rural landscape: case study of the world heritage site of honghe hani rice terrace

yan wang

University of Lausanne, IGD, Switzerland

The World Heritage Site of Honghe hani rice terrace, also a marginal rural region in Southern China, is undergoing rapid change because of urbanization and heritage tourism. Influenced by out-migration and changing ways of living in urbanization process, the place sees a tendency of losing its rice terrace landscape and traditional settlements. However, heritage tourism tends to keep the past, valorize them for tourism purposes and diversifies rural livelihood strategies. The place stands at this development trajectories, where the same resources are subjected to different uses by different actors.

The research seeks to answer the questions of how the site is transformed in urbanization and heritage tourism, how it is co-constructed by different institutions, practices and actors, and how local livelihood is affected. The research aims to describe the transformation of villages and rice terraces, analyze the place-making process, and assess the impact of heritage tourism on local livelihood. To achieve the objectives, the research uses a mixed of methods including direct observation, participant observation, interviews; collects various data of images, words, narratives and statistics, and analyze them qualitatively and qualitatively.

Theoretically, it is hoped that the research bring more thoughts from a functional perspective on heritage in relation to rural development. Practically, it is also anticipated that the research could access the linkage between tourism and local livelihood, and generate concrete development suggestions.



Full talk
ID: 468 / 334R: 4
308R Mixed-methods approaches to identify and include the peoples’ needs in modeling urban spaces and their settings
Keywords: urban expansion, socioeconomic segregation, agent-based modeling, Suriname

Agent-based modeling of socioeconomic segregation within the Greater Paramaribo Region, Suriname

Kimberley Fung-Loy1,2, Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx2, Jeroen Royer2, Anton Van Rompaey2

1Department of Infrastructure, Anton de Kom University of Suriname, Paramaribo, Suriname; 2Geography and Tourism Research Group, Department Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

In the past 15 years, the urban Greater Paramaribo region (population circa 400.000) in Suriname experienced a population growth of circa 1% per year, resulting in an urban sprawl. The urban growth has been caused by natural growth, as well as rural-urban migrations. Each social group in Greater Paramaribo is affected differently by the urban sprawl process, resulting in very specific socioeconomic segregation patterns. The poor often end up in inaccessible slum areas, lacking access to running water, electricity, schools and hospitals, while the rich end up in exclusive, expensive neighbourhoods. In order to address these undesirable unequal distribution patterns, adequate spatial planning policies, that stimulate sustainable growth with a good quality of life for all, need to be developed. This research presents a modelling tool that could support a sustainable development of Greater Paramaribo.
Firstly, to gain insight into the drivers of land use change of the different population groups, ca. 700 interviews were conducted at household level. A k-prototype clustering method was applied to the interview data to identify the different socioeconomic groups. Secondly, on the basis of the collected data, an agent-based model was developed that simulates both urban expansion and social segregation. The model simulations show that, under a business as usual scenario, urban expansion is expected to continue, through outward expansion of the current urban extent. This process could leave the weaker social groups underserved in terms of access to utilities and services. Finally, the impact of some planning options such as the construction of new roads and bridges and the upgrading of certain neighbourhoods is explored.



Full talk
ID: 577 / 334R: 5
321R Land resources conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa: Which knowledge and governance systems can end the siloed thinking?
Keywords: Land, Conflict, Governance, Localized strategy, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Urban land conflict and governance: experiences from the greater Port Harcourt city, Nigeria

UTCHAY OKORJI1, MODUPE M. OMIRIN2, ESTHER OROMIDAYO THONTTEH3

1Rivers State University, Nigeria; 2UNILAG, Nigeria; 3University of Lagos, Nigeria

The upsurge of various forms of contest and conflict over land in the oil-rich Greater Port Harcourt city, Southern Nigeria has remained a daunting issue affecting land in the urban center and creating restiveness. This paper investigates the local profile of the extant land governance framework and examines the local policies, processes, and bottlenecks associated with land governance in Port Harcourt and its contributions to the urban land conflicts in the area. The study is purposive in nature, analysis was carried out using biserial correlation, t-test, standard deviation and variance. The study showed the localized nature of the various conflict types which are caused by the lacuna created by weak urban land governance framework within the area. The study recommends a more localized, proactive and robust approach to land governance in the area. To this end, the paper suggests that proper and domesticated policies should be put forward, realistic processes embraced and necessary actions taken to achieve better localized land management in the area.



Flash talk
ID: 608 / 334R: 6
206R Relevance of long-term land-use change for sustainable land management
Keywords: ecosystem service value; management mode; land-use and land-cover change; Fujin City

The impact of management modes on ecosystem service values: a case study in fujin city, northeast china

Shuwen Zhang

Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, China, People's Republic of

Abstract: Different management modes can influence land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), resulting in changes to ecosystem service values (ESVs). There is much research on the effect of LULCC on ESV changes, but few studies compared the differences in ESV changes under different management modes. In this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Operational Land Imager (OLI) and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images were used to obtain the LULCC for Fujin City over four periods (1986, 1995, 2005 and 2015). The equivalent value factors (EVF) method was modified by crop yield to estimate the ESV in different years. Finally, we compared and analyzed the impact of management modes on changes to ecosystem service values and ecosystem service structures. The results show that cultivated land expanded quickly at the expense of wetland, forest and grassland in two regions under different management modes. Paddy expanded more quickly in the reclamation region than in the agricultural region. The agricultural products function exhibited a larger increase and the freshwater supply function exhibited a greater decrease in the reclamation region than in the agricultural region. Based on the related analysis, several suggestions regarding sustainable development for the two regions are provided.



Full talk
ID: 317 / 334R: 7
315R The role of policy and planning in urban land change: conceptualizations and evidence
Keywords: ecosystem service planning, urban growth modeling, non-point source pollution, carbon sequestration, urban form, urban density

Anticipating trade-offs between urban growth and ecosystem service production: scenario analyses of sprawl alternatives for a rapidly urbanizing region

Douglas A. Shoemaker1, Todd K. BenDor2, Ross K. Meentemeyer3

1University of North Carolina Charlotte, United States of America; 2University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, United States of America; 3North Carolina State University, United States of America

Anticipating the aggregated effect emerging from regulatory choices has long constituted a challenge to planners looking for sustainable development outcomes. Expanding demand for low-density development (‘sprawl’) has restructured the urban-rural frontier throughout North America, shifting the burden of ecosystem provisioning to increasingly fragmented green infrastructure remnants. Planners have responded with approaches to control sprawl, however, the ability of alternatives to preserve ecosystem services have not been systematically evaluated. Using a novel integration of land change simulation and ecosystem services modeling, we used proxies to estimate changes in water quality, climate regulation and biodiversity, and returns to landowners associated with sprawl alternatives and business-as-usual trends for the rapidly urbanizing Charlotte (NC) region by 2030.

We found no single growth scenario simultaneously reduced pollution, stored additional carbon, and retained sensitive habitat, underscoring trade-offs likely encountered when balancing development and environmental outcomes. Watersheds at the extremes of the urban-rural gradient exhibited significantly different and often opposing responses to policies aimed at reducing environmental impacts. Our findings point to the benefits of retaining greenfields behind the development frontier in rapidly urbanizing areas. Scenarios of increased land use density yielded stronger financial returns to landowners as concentrated economic activity drove up land rents while minimizing broader pollution costs.These findings suggest that the promotion of urban density can foster sustainable development especially when geographic context is considered. Our simulated landscape approach overcame limitations associated with scale and data, and projected regional environmental outcomes emerging from local development events.

 
4:15pm - 4:30pmBreak
 
4:30pm - 5:30pmClosing: Closing Plenary
Aula 

 
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