Conference Agenda

Using upcoming gubernatorial elections in the U.S. as a source of variation in local political uncertainty, we examine how bank branches—key players in local credit markets—adjust deposit interest rates and, subsequently, local deposit funding and the supply of local credit in response. We find that branches facing heightened uncertainty ahead of gubernatorial elections tend to raise deposit rates, which gradually return to normal levels after the elections. This adjustment is accompanied by an increase in deposit volumes prior to the elections, but does not translate into growth in mortgages and small business lending, consistent with a stronger motive for liquidity hoarding under political uncertainty. In contrast, branches in states without gubernatorial elections—whose parent banks are headquartered in states holding elections—are more likely to lower deposit rates, possibly reflecting efforts to manage funding costs at the bank level. By isolating the effects of political uncertainty at both the branch and headquarters levels, our study highlights that uncertainty at each level plays a critical role in shaping branch-level deposit pricing.

The aim the article is to provide a comprehensive assessment of respondents’ uncertainty

regarding inflation expectations in Germany across different inflation regimes over the period

1985–2025. The analysis accounts for heterogeneity across demographic groups defined by

age, education, and gender. Understanding the degree of uncertainty in inflation perceptions is

essential for improving forecasting accuracy and informing monetary policy. To quantify

uncertainty, we employ an entropy-based measure derived from Shannon’s information theory.

The analysis uses data from the European Commission’s Consumer Sentiment Survey. The

results demonstrate that entropy is an effective tool for capturing variation in respondents’

perceptions of price developments. The results indicate that among surveyed consumers in

Germany, there are differences in the uncertainty accompanying answers to questions about

price developments. These differences also appear within individual consumer groups

depending on age, education, and gender

This study examines the role of digital infrastructure in strengthening trade resilience across African economies amid rising global uncertainty. Using panel data for 54 African countries over 2000-2024, we apply a bias-corrected generalized method of moments estimator to address dynamic persistence and finite-sample bias, complemented by fixed-effects models for robustness. The results reveal strong persistence in trade openness, trade policy uncertainty, and market concentration, indicating that trade-related shocks in Africa are durable. Digital infrastructure enhances trade resilience by sustaining trade openness and attenuating the transmission of geopolitical and global supply chain shocks into trade. Mobile connectivity emerges as a particularly effective stabilizing channel, reflecting its role in improving information flows and facilitating rapid adjustment. The effects on market structure are more nuanced, as broadband expansion may reinforce scale advantages under certain conditions. Overall, the findings highlight digital infrastructure as a key structural mechanism for enhancing trade stability and adaptive capacity in African economies confronting an increasingly volatile global trading environment.

Model risk of market risk measures is investigated as a possible risk factor for equity stock asset pricing. We show that the joint model risk of value at risk and expected shortfall are passing the cross-sectional Fama-MacBeth asset pricing tests. The joint model risk measure captures a distinct dimension of tail risk uncertainty that is priced separately in the cross-section of expected stock returns. The premium of this joint model risk factor is prominent upon the introduction of expected shortfall in 2000. Our findings provide support for regulatory guidance asserting that model risk should be incorporated into decision-making processes.