Conference Agenda

Introduction

Current policy programs on physical activity (PA) in the Netherlands are expiring. To determine focus areas for new national policy, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports wants to gain a broad perspective on future societal developments and a prediction of the future PA trends.

Methods

This study comprises two parts: an exploration of future societal developments (qualitative research) and an analysis of the future development of PA key-indicators (quantitative research). For the first part, workshops with experts and citizens were organized. In these workshops the PA system was mapped out using causal loop diagrams and societal developments were linked to specific elements in this system map. Societal developments came from a DESTEP-analysis looking at demographic, economic, socio-cultural, technological, ecological and political-legal factors and developments. In the second part, a system dynamic model was used to model the future development of a selection of key-indicators up to 2040. In this analyses a broad range of scenarios were taken into account.

Results

Results provide a description of expected future societal developments that influence PA of the Dutch population. The analysis also gives insight into long-term future developments of several PA key-indicators, for example “weekly sports participation”, “number of sport accommodations” and “adherence to physical activity guidelines”. These results will be presented at the HEPA 2026 conference.

Conclusion

This study will form a basis for future policy on PA by providing insight into recent and anticipated developments. This creates a foundation for broad thinking with a long-term perspective in policy.