Conference Agenda

Purpose: To estimate the impact of policy interventions regarding physical activity (PA) on future public health in the Netherlands, we developed a life course disease microsimulation model (LCDM). The impact estimation from this model of PA on health, costs, and quality of life will facilitate decision making concerning PA interventions by national policy makers.

Methods: The LCDM, an existing microsimulation model, was extended to include PA and PA-related health outcomes. Self-reported PA from a Dutch national health survey was used to model PA as MET minutes/week. For model input regarding health outcomes, we studied recent literature on the association of PA-level with the odds/risk of developing major non-communicable diseases type 2 diabetes, stroke, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, breast cancer, colon cancer & dementia. Costs, Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY’s), and workforce productivity serve as secondary outcomes. In an additional literature study, PA policy interventions with a significant effect on PA levels were identified. To illustrate the potential impact of PA policy interventions on public health in 2050, the results of these interventions were modelled and compared with a ‘usual’ policy projection (i.e. without PA policy interventions).

Results: For our primary health outcomes, we are currently running projections with the LCDM, and are able to present the results at the HEPA conference.

Conclusions: These results will be used to model or estimate the evidence based public health impact of national policies concerning PA.