Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
S14 Keynote: History of Probability and Statistics
Time:
Friday, 14/Mar/2025:
10:30 am - 11:20 am

Session Chair: Hans Fischer
Session Chair: Tilman Sauer
Session Chair: René Schilling
Location: POT 81
Floor plan

Potthoff Bau
Session Topics:
14. History of Probability and Statistics

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Presentations
10:30 am - 11:20 am

Richard von Mises, the forgotten Bayesian

Glenn Ray Shafer

The theory of probability as frequency that von Mises devised over a century ago included a construction corresponding to Bayes's rule, which von Mises considered the key tool for statistical inference. In the late 1940s and early 1950s, von Mises was the only "Bayesian" on the editorial board of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. But today the interpretation of probability as frequency has been conflated with an opposition to reliance on Bayes's rule. Can today's statisticians still learn from von Mises?



 
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