Conference Agenda

We present a multidimensional extension of Kellerer's theorem on the existence of mimicking Markov martingales for peacocks, a term derived from the French for stochastic processes increasing in convex order. For a continuous-time peacock in arbitrary dimension, after Gaussian regularization, we show that there exists a strongly Markovian mimicking martingale Itô diffusion. A novel compactness result for martingale diffusions is a key tool in our proof. Moreover, we provide counterexamples to show, in dimension $d \geq 2$, that uniqueness may not hold, and that some regularization is necessary to guarantee existence of a mimicking Markov martingale.

In this talk we review some results about the propagation of the weak representation property to progressively enlarged filtrations. The enlargement of the reference filtration can be carried by a random time or by a whole semimartingale.

We consider a synchronous process of particles moving on the vertices of a graph $G$, introduced by Cooper, McDowell, Radzik, Rivera and Shiraga (2018). Initially, $M$ particles are placed on a vertex of $G$. In subsequent time steps, all particles that are located on a vertex inhabited by at least two particles jump independently to a neighbour chosen uniformly at random. The process ends at the first step when no vertex is inhabited by more than one particle; we call this (random) time step the dispersion time.

In this work we study the case where $G$ is the complete graph on $n$ vertices and the number of particles is $M=n/2+\alpha n^{1/2} + o(n^{1/2})$, $\alpha\in \mathbb{R}$. This choice of $M$ corresponds to the critical window of the process, with respect to the dispersion time. We show that the dispersion time, if rescaled by $n^{-1/2}$, converges in $p$-th mean, as $n\rightarrow \infty$ and for any $p \in \mathbb{R}$, to a continuous and almost surely positive random variable $T_\alpha$. We find that $T_\alpha$ is the absorption time of a standard logistic branching process, thoroughly investigated by Lambert (2005), and we determine its expectation. In particular, in the middle of the critical window we show that $\mathbb{E}[T_0] = \pi^{3/2}/\sqrt{7}$, and furthermore we formulate explicit asymptotics when $|\alpha|$ gets large that quantify the transition into and out of the critical window. We also study the (random) total number of jumps that are performed by the particles until the dispersion time is reached. In particular, we prove that it centers around $\frac27n\ln n$ and that it has variations linear in $n$, whose distribution we describe explicitly.

We investigate stochastic processes with independent, but not necessarily stationary increments on finite-dimensional Lie groups. Assuming stochastic continuity, these processes exhibit strong regularity properties, admitting a modification with càdlàg paths. We analyze the stochastic logarithm of such processes within the associated Lie algebra and its inverse map, the stochastic exponential. Drawing parallels to vector-valued processes, we explore appropriate versions of the Lévy-Khintchine formula and the Lévy-Itô decomposition.